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Betting on Roughies - Betting, Tips & Ratings - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: Betting on Roughies  (Read 18176 times)

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Offline Mantaray

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O.P. « 2009-Jan-27, 07:34 AM »
I'm interested in any ideas for finding unexpected winners.

Yesterday I was told the way to win was to follow "quality gallopers", which I reckon we all do already. I don't have a clue what will be running in the Newmarket, for example, but I can tell you without the slightest thought that the "quality gallopers" will be the top three or four favs.

What got me thinking about this advice was watching Andy Murray, one of the obvious "quality selections" going down last night in the tennis.

We might know who has the best chance before the race or match, but that dioesn't mean you won't see them go pear-shaped.

Also, with Betfair on the scene the question of value has greatly changed. I read someplace that while bookies are pretty close to the mark with SP on favoured runners they give horrible unders on roughies. I can't remember exactly but it was something like a 20-1 chance which should win 5% of the time only wins 3%. It should be 33-1.
Well, what if Betfair layers are offerring 60-1? Or best tote $50?

That must be better value than a $3 chance at $3.50.

Any ideas on roughies?
« Last Edit: 2009-Feb-04, 11:12 AM by Mantaray »

Offline Stormy

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« 2009-Jan-27, 04:51 PM Reply #1 »
G'day Mate

First up, finding a roughie to bet on, is like finding a winner to bet on ( Buckles and None ). Trying to get rich fast ( forget it ! )
Study is knowledge, knowledge is power, and power is money !

Look around, look at the forum , we are all for the same thing TAX FREE MONEY.

All the information here is FREE ! I think this would be the best forum on the NET for horse racing and finding WINNERS.
Backing roughies, or finding roughies, be prepared for a good long of outs.

To me, forget it. On the other hand a punter out there might have a good selection system for doing this sort of thing.

Just my thoughts Cheers.
 8-)
« Last Edit: 2009-Jan-27, 04:55 PM by Stormy »

Offline gratlog

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« 2009-Jan-27, 04:53 PM Reply #2 »
If it was easy we would all be millionaires

Offline OldLarsy

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« 2009-Jan-27, 05:14 PM Reply #3 »
I like a bet on a roughie myself occasionally, but only if I think it's a genuine chance or quite a big hunch.
Probably 5% of my bets are on those longer than $10

Just had a quick look at results of Nowra and Hamilton today.

NOWRA
38 starters under $10 for 7 winners
34 starters over $10 for 1 winner (12.60)

HAMILTON
30 starters under $10 for 7 winners
55 starters over $10 for 1 winner ($11.60)

Offline westie

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« 2009-Jan-27, 05:34 PM Reply #4 »
I'm interested in any ideas for finding unexpected winners.

Yesterday I was told the way to win was to follow "quality gallopers", which I reckon we all do already. I don't have a clue what will be running in the Newmarket, for example, but I can tell you without the slightest thought that the "quality gallopers" will be the top three or four favs.

Any ideas on roughies?

Mantaray

Woodywob mentioned on a thread here somewhere that Typhoon Tracy's main goal was the Newmarket, that was when it was 60-1, it came into 40's and god knows what it is now after Saturday's win.  So I guess have a chat to woodywob he has certainly found value if the form holds up and indeed starts in the Newmarket.

Offline Stormy

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« 2009-Jan-27, 05:54 PM Reply #5 »
So I guess have a chat to woodywob

Woody, please go for it, interested ! 8-)

Offline gratlog

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« 2009-Jan-27, 06:01 PM Reply #6 »
Woody is more generous than I am , but to be frank, if I new how to pick roughies on a regular basis I wouldn't be sitting here passing my time on a forum.  With all due respect  :lol:

Offline Mantaray

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« 2009-Jan-27, 06:58 PM Reply #7 »
 I just read the comments and am not surprised that either no-one has any real idea why a 50-1 shot can surprise us in the Melbourne Cup (despite it's trainer already having 11 Cups in the Cabinet), or else they don't want to divulge what they know. Or think they know.

I'll throw something in and let's see what you think.

With first-starters you can't really have any idea how they will go under race pressure. They can trial but whether that trial is fair dinkum is anyone's guess. Is every First-Starter Roughie worth a bet? This may depend on what price you call it a roughie and not a maybe.

Tomorrow there are 21 First Starters  at the three meetings on Unitab (Geelong, Wyong, Eagle Farm; Gawler cancelled). if they will all start, and at what price we don't know. But will one or more roughie surprise?

Maybe First-Starter roughies in metro races are worth betting...

This is what I mentioned up the top. Racing Victoria is so concerned by surprise First Starters that they are intriducing a compulsory barrier trial system for them, so the punters can have a look. Why's that? Let's see what happens tomorrow (Eagle Farm is a metro..don't forget)

Offline westie

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« 2009-Jan-27, 07:06 PM Reply #8 »
(Eagle Farm is a metro..don't forget)


Metro meeting, provincal prizemoney infact less than Geelong and quite a bit less than Wyong.

Offline woodywob

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« 2009-Jan-27, 07:16 PM Reply #9 »
It's only good "value" if they win .........

Tracy has had a good reputation from day one ......... her effort to win her first run at MV was very good and the reports coming from the track since then have been promising ...

Offline woodywob

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« 2009-Jan-27, 07:19 PM Reply #10 »
from Mantaray: Maybe First-Starter roughies in metro races are worth betting...

could not agree more ........ it's always worth having something on a first starter in town ...... that is provided there are no other first starters in the same race ......... doesn't it make you think why they are aiming so high for a 1st starter ? why not go to the bush 1st start ?

Offline The Carnegie Express

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« 2009-Jan-27, 07:36 PM Reply #11 »
And never be affraid to back one coming into town with a country win to it's credit. Too many people see a 1 and the notice it was the Sunshine Coast or Canberra and give it the flick, only to see it salute at a solid price.

Can recall backing a 65/1 shot at Randwick a few years ago called Upsized. It was a 2 year old race with all first starters. The notes in the form guide suggestefd the mother was a great producer of first up winners. Had a look and saw it blowing with the bookies. Only had $5 each way but it more than paid for the day.

Offline Mantaray

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« 2009-Jan-27, 07:56 PM Reply #12 »
Westie (7.06PM). For Queensland trainers and connections, tomorrow at Eagle Farm the prizemoney will be more enticing than at Gatton etc.

Offline woodywob

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« 2009-Jan-27, 08:29 PM Reply #13 »
let's try an experiment ........

Can someone pick out a race ... anywhere tomorrow will do ....... and the rest of us can have a go at selecting the best roughie for that race .........

Offline Hillbilly

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« 2009-Jan-27, 09:08 PM Reply #14 »
Just taking a general look back through some results and the majority of my longshot winners are first or second starters. These have generally come in races where I under rate the favourites ( I rate 3-4/1 about a 4/5 shot ). Some are from stables that produce big improvers second time out and others are very well bred but trained by somewhat unfashionable handlers.

There are some other longshot trends including track condition ( sudden wet ground out of season ) and distance races ( horses stepping up to suitable trip for first time or first time that campaign ). Certain trainers will always stand out in distance categories. Some are sprinting specialists and others do very well with stayers. It's an area worth observing.

Offline westie

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« 2009-Jan-27, 09:15 PM Reply #15 »
Will start a new thread
Gosford Race 5. 3.02pm (NSW time) - Erina Leagues Club Mdn Plate.


http://www.racehorsetalk.com.au/index.php/topic,3214.msg21814.html#msg21814
« Last Edit: 2009-Jan-27, 09:19 PM by westie »

Offline Mantaray

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« 2009-Jan-28, 06:46 AM Reply #16 »
The following from OldLarsy.


Just had a quick look at results of Nowra and Hamilton today.

NOWRA
38 starters under $10 for 7 winners
34 starters over $10 for 1 winner (12.60)

HAMILTON
30 starters under $10 for 7 winners
55 starters over $10 for 1 winner ($11.60)


From me...This would have looked very different if the one getting up at Nowra had been $75.

The big thing with roughies is that not all are really any chance at all. A lot are not even worth considering since the trainer isn't trying to win. It's the opposite with those under $10.

I watch David Hayes. On Saturday in Adelaide race 7 he had two which were coming back from spells. One Danever had been racing between 3600m and 4350m over hurdles. The other in the St Leger over 2800m last April..then a spell and one run in September over 1400..then another spell. So on Saturday it was a 1200m sprint. That was not a race; it was a "barrier trial".

What I mean with these long-priced horses is that there is no point saying "if you bet 100 roughies at 100-1 you will lose". Who WOULD back them all?

OK. On to Wyong Race 5..

PS. Just thought of something. Don't forget that not all First Starters are in maidens.
« Last Edit: 2009-Jan-28, 07:08 AM by Mantaray »

Offline OldLarsy

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« 2009-Feb-02, 01:32 PM Reply #17 »
Archgate is in at Kempsey today Mantaray, where it belongs   :biggrin:

Offline Stormy

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« 2009-Feb-02, 05:30 PM Reply #18 »
G'day Mate

First up, finding a roughie to bet on, is like finding a winner to bet on ( Buckles and None ). Trying to get rich fast ( forget it ! )
Study is knowledge, knowledge is power, and power is money !

Look around, look at the forum , we are all for the same thing TAX FREE MONEY.

All the information here is FREE ! I think this would be the best forum on the NET for horse racing and finding WINNERS.
Backing roughies, or finding roughies, be prepared for a good long of outs.

Just my thoughts Cheers.
 8-)

Eventually and slowly  you will loose your money ( Give It the FLICK ) mate.
 8-)  emthup

Offline woodywob

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« 2009-Feb-04, 10:56 AM Reply #19 »
Nice roughie for today ...

Ballarat R4 # 14 Viva La Volt

Offline Mantaray

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« 2009-Feb-04, 11:07 AM Reply #20 »
Nice roughie for today ...

Ballarat R4 # 14 Viva La Volt

Not certain how you picked that one. Was it the same reason that #18 is also a good chance?

Offline woodywob

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« 2009-Feb-04, 11:18 AM Reply #21 »
Trainer had two in the race ........... one has been scratched. Remaining runner has blinkers on after only one run ......

Offline Max Manewer

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« 2009-Feb-04, 11:19 AM Reply #22 »
Looking for long priced winners, keep this in mind.........

FAVOURABLE RACES: Large field, rain affected ground, longer races. Go looking for roughies in sprint races on firm ground and small field size you are GUARANTEED to go broke.

Offline BurntToast

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« 2009-Feb-04, 11:21 AM Reply #23 »
I would definitely expect some improvement from it - good trainer/jockey, first start was over 1235m - stepping up to 1600m here and they've put blinkers on this time too... beaten 7.25 l at only start, sounds like it just went around for a run... it may very well be hopeless, but would not surprise to see it in the finish here either, you really can't pay too much attention to the form from its only race.

Offline woodywob

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« 2009-Feb-04, 11:21 AM Reply #24 »
there is method to my madness...


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