Black Bookers Australia and Hong Kong - Betting, Tips & Ratings - Racehorse TALK   harm-plan

Racehorse TALK



Black Bookers Australia and Hong Kong - Betting, Tips & Ratings - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: Black Bookers Australia and Hong Kong  (Read 13514 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Appman

  • Open
  • User 2017
  • Posts: 152
« 2012-Sep-23, 10:39 AM Reply #25 »
No 5    International Fitness Reports 23-09-2012
 

Fitness Punting Tips:

If you are going to lay an unfit horse, make sure you have 4-5 fitter horse also in the race just to safe guard your wager.

Good morning and I hope everybody backed a winner or two on the weekend of stars coming out for the big spring carnival races in Australia.

Exclusive to our readers we start on the important fitness levels of some of the Internationals horses now having a run before the longer classics come up, like the Melbourne Cup.

We also have some sensational value bet black bookers to watch out for in the coming weeks and we give you an in-depth, behind the scenes of what happened from the stables at Caulfield on Saturday.

Ok, let’s get into it!

Our first black booker is a beauty, when they ever drop him back in distance, it can win at.

Kneeling on a balanced 97% fitness just needs to drop back in distance as Saturdays unplaced race of 1400 metres now has a strike rate of 4-0-0-0 over the distance. Fit to perform in something shorter, this nice strong type is fit. Our first value bet black booker.

Shopaholics on 96% is a nice size horse and wait for 3rd up or next run in 20 days, a consistent horse in this grade.

Hvasstan and the nice type Rawnaq both on 96% and 2nd up ran great races and now 3rd up next time they can be fitter, so black book to perform well again.

Not sure what they can do with The Travelling Man on a great 98% fit, he just can’t seem to run past 700 metres, super strong type but maybe a small heart.
 
Black book Canali on a good 97% fit, finished the race off nicely and can get in the winner’s circle in similar type races next start.

The well tried $12 - $8 Menados on a good, balanced 96% first up run was extremely unlucky not to get the plunge home. Ran into 3-4 dead ends everywhere along the rail and this nice type has a 2 from 2 strike rate 2nd up, so watch out for him soon.

The thousand Guineas Prelude for fillies was the next race and quite a few stripped on good 97% equal fitness levels and our best black booker of the day is Molto Bene, a nice type from Adelaide and this good looking filly was a mile back in the field once they settled, trapped 3 wide under the whip 600 from home and flashed down the outside for a brilliant 3rd, black book her.

The big, strong filly Bloomingdale Miss  had two bouts of extended exercise in the stable yards for long periods of time then raced 2nd on the pace and weaken out.

On a good 96% fit, this solid filly will trim down 5-6kg fitter next start, so watch out for at value odds.

Hot favourite and nice leggy type Commanding  Jewel on 97% fit, just run out of gas over the last 100 metres after trying to lead all the way. I am not convinced she will stay, so be careful punters, because Molto Bene gave her 15 or more lengths start and ran all over Commanding Jewel up the straight. On the small side, Spitfire Lady on good 97% fit can easily drop back to a weaker race and win next start at value odds.

The hot, hot favourite   on only 95% fit 2nd up was backed for a fortune but I layed it not to run a place with many fitter horses against it. Manighar will benefit from that run.

Horses well and truly in the “high fitness zone” are Sincero on 98%, Zabeelionaire 98%, Ocean Park 98% fit and Southern Speed a striking type also on 98% Super Fit. So you can see why laying Manighar not to run a place on 3 lengths lower fitness levels was a great bet.

Add our next value bet black booker from that race is Illo on 98% super fit, this nice type is soon ready for an easier race, follow him next 2-3 starts at big value odds, so it won’t break your bank.

Next exclusive information from the stables is the performance one of our Stable Stars, Zurella on 97% fit. She had lower strength factors than her great 1st up run and this daughter of Zabeel may also have a few loose brain cells pre-race as she plays up something terrible, jumping and spinning around for 20 minutes before her races. She didn’t go up to the mounting yard until they were ready to go on the track. Second up today, she got well back and had to go wide making up some ground in just an ordinary effort. She needs back stronger strength factors and she will be fitter. I will wait to rate her in fitness next start for a final conclusion. To win Group 1 races you need no weak links especially one that uses up high energy before a race.
 
Value bet black booker Shenzhou Steeds on 96% fitness and can improve many lengths next start, so watch out for him.

More value bet black bookers this time in Single Minded on 96% fit raced out wide up early on a fast pace and just had to weaken out of it, easier race and good odds sounds super to me.

All Too Hard  got me @ $1.85 place and on 100% Super Fit missed the start and really did very little, never again.



International Fitness report.

Our world 1st exclusive, fitness report of the imports starting to race in Australia.

Winchester lightly raced, from the USA is a proven, consistent performer in distance Group 1 races and has won over $1.7 million in prize money. This horse is a magnificent strong specimen and on today’s low 95% fitness levels and in 4-6 week time, there is a nice race here for him, maybe the Sandown Cup. If he comes to hand quickly, the Melbourne Cup may not be out of the question!

The grey, Voila Ici on 97% fit ran a bottler, but is on the smaller size and something off the Group 1 level there could be nice pickings for him.


Stable of Stars:

Two new horses today for our Stable of Stars and they are  smart filly, Molto Bene and I am putting in Winchester from the USA and watch for him later when he strikes a bit of form, very impressive type.


o   Epaulette (Aust)
o   More Joyous (Aust)
o   Zurella (Aust)
o   Huka Falls (Singapore)
o   Molto Bene (Aust)
o   Winchester(Aust/USA)

Appy punting


Online JWesleyHarding

  • Group 1
  • User 231
  • Posts: 18250
« 2012-Sep-23, 11:46 AM Reply #26 »
All Too Hard[/b]  got me @ $1.85 place and on 100% Super Fit missed the start and really did very little, never again.

So I take it that 98% fit is better than 100% fit.

Offline Appman

  • Open
  • User 2017
  • Posts: 152
« 2012-Sep-23, 01:59 PM Reply #27 »
I get plenty of good 98% fit horses, 100% comes up under 1% of all horses rated.

If many more horses rated 100% as trainers say, nothing would ever add up.

Offline dubbledee

  • VIP Club
  • Group 1
  • User 285
  • Posts: 34011
« 2012-Sep-23, 02:37 PM Reply #28 »
My personal view would be that horses should NOT be allowed to run if not 100% fit - no ifs, no buts.

Online JWesleyHarding

  • Group 1
  • User 231
  • Posts: 18250
« 2012-Sep-23, 03:29 PM Reply #29 »
Appman

It's obvious that you do a lot of work assessing the fitness of these horses.

But the ones I see are after the race.

Do you do assessments before the race?

The problem I have is that fitness varies from day to day.

I'll use my situation to demonstrate.

Friday mornings, after a quiet Thurday night, I'm as fit as a trout, I'd probably reach the 98% fitness level.

But Saturday mornings, after a night on the piss, I'd be fair dinkum struggling to come in at 67.25%

Surely horse fitness assessors must encounter that problem.



 

Offline Appman

  • Open
  • User 2017
  • Posts: 152
« 2012-Sep-23, 04:39 PM Reply #30 »
A horses fitness levels would change 2-3 times a week, depending on what the trainer does with them, but only marginally.

A horse 100% cannot go down to 97% less fit in one week.

2% would be max in one week with 1% the norm.

Offline chalky

  • VIP Club
  • Group 1
  • User 319
  • Posts: 5226
« 2012-Sep-23, 07:29 PM Reply #31 »
Appman i am on the cusp of Taurus and Gemini; can you please tell me which numbers and colours i should be looking for in the next week?

Offline Tevez17

  • Group 1
  • User 159
  • Posts: 7029
« 2012-Sep-23, 09:57 PM Reply #32 »
Molto Bene was huuuuuuge she's got a mortgage on the Thousand Guineas i reckon, she's has real X-Factor

Offline Appman

  • Open
  • User 2017
  • Posts: 152
« 2012-Sep-24, 07:53 AM Reply #33 »
Yes, Teverz17 a nice type and fit and she has a real chance in the Thousand.


I was asked if I rated horses only 95% - 98% fit, here is the reply.


No, I rate horses in fitness from 89% to 100%, which is 11 lengths fitness margins and edge for punters.

At Caulfield on Saturday there were over 100 horses racing and some were under 89% fit and not
worth a mention.

I only black book horses in the fitness zone around 96% - 100% and ready to perform next start for punters.

A horse rated 100% Super Fit only come up in under 1% of all horses rated.

If I blacked booked a horse under 90% it will never win a race in it's lifetime on those fitness percentages and you
will go broke.

About 70% of most horses in a race, rate under 95% fit.

That is why first to last is about 10 lengths.

I hope this helps and thanks for the question.

Offline dubbledee

  • VIP Club
  • Group 1
  • User 285
  • Posts: 34011
« 2012-Sep-24, 08:49 AM Reply #34 »
You're definitely onto something big here, Appman.

I gather you win at the punt, or is this just something you do to help out those of us who don't?

Offline Appman

  • Open
  • User 2017
  • Posts: 152
« 2012-Sep-24, 09:34 AM Reply #35 »
Mate I am getting old, few health problems from bad habits in my Woodstock days, ha ha.

May as well pass it all on now because who else is going to spend 50 years research into fitness?

I ask my sons, come on I'll teach you how I do it.

How long will it take?

Maybe 4-5 years coming to the races every week!

"Just send me a text message dad"


Online Gintara

  • Group 1
  • User 16
  • Posts: 12209
« 2012-Sep-24, 06:46 PM Reply #36 »
So you've spent 50 years researching this and claim it will take around 4 to 5 years to learn  :chin:

I guess we'll put down the stallion photos you rated for fitness a few years back as just having a bad day then?  :whistle:

Offline Appman

  • Open
  • User 2017
  • Posts: 152
« 2012-Sep-24, 08:57 PM Reply #37 »
That was 1988 Gintarra, thats life.

I've come a long way since then.


Online Gintara

  • Group 1
  • User 16
  • Posts: 12209
« 2012-Sep-24, 09:51 PM Reply #38 »
That was 1988 Gintarra, thats life.

I've come a long way since then.



Ya making shit up again, or is that still?

Offline Appman

  • Open
  • User 2017
  • Posts: 152
« 2012-Sep-27, 08:51 AM Reply #39 »

No 6  Country Australia Black Bookers  27-09-2012

Fitness Tips:
A horse 1st up if it rates 96% - 97% fit, it is a super rating and will perform

Good morning here are some terrific selective black bookers that can win next start of us in easier country races. Nice value odds coming up.

Melbourne Cup

I took the $42 and $14.50 a place on one of our Stable of Stars black bookers on the USA import Winchester. One good run and his price will tumble in. Nice horse.

The nice leggy type Al Nemo in Victoria on 96% second start competed over 1700 and finished off the race nicely and 3rd start, this striking horse can win for us. Black book.

Sydney black bookers:

Five Rock on 96% 2nd up ran a great race, black book next start.

The flying Magita set a mean pace and on 97% fit when gets fitter will run them ragged in a similar type of grade race.

The nice strong type Hard Liquor 2nd up on 96% and well tried in the markets is going to improve a few lengths on the nice run and black book for sure next start.

Stocky horse with plenty of strength factors, Field Marshall on 96% fit is heading into the higher end of the fitness zone and follow-up next start. Could be nice horse in the making.

The magnificent type Prospector from the Bart Cumming stables was having his first start and 3rd up try this nice type if he shows ability, may be above average over a bit of distance. Track his progress.

It’s short and sweet today, but quality black bookers are here for us to follow.

Appy Punting.

Stable of Stars

•    Epaulette (Aust)
•    More Joyous (Aust)
•    Zurella (Aust)
•    Huka Falls (Singapore)
•    Molto Bene (Aust)
•    Winchester(Aust/USA

Offline Tevez17

  • Group 1
  • User 159
  • Posts: 7029
« 2012-Sep-27, 02:25 PM Reply #40 »
What horses should we be on the look out for this weekend Appman? lets see how they perform when we know about before the race   emthup

Offline Appman

  • Open
  • User 2017
  • Posts: 152
« 2012-Sep-29, 08:54 AM Reply #41 »
No. 7 How Fit was Pierro?

Super colt Pierro races tonight, let’s find out his fitness ratings.

Our first spring carnival night racing was held at Moonee Valley in Melbourne and we have some great fitness black bookers at odds for you to keep an eye out for.

The big, nice type grey horse from the Anthony Freedman camp on a great 97% first up fitness levels, Chosen Moment dived on the line and just missed. At $6.00 the place was great overs with our fitness ratings.

General Life a nice type came from well back and on 97% fit will improve so black book this bloke also.

The hot favourite Clinton Affair on 95% first up was down on strength factors and that is the reason why he weakened out of the race for a poor performance and punters lost.

Off and Laughing is a nice type and rated only 95% fit, watch out for easy bush race next start.

Mourinho a nice big type on only 95% is now ready for a good country performance and will improve on fitness after racing on the pace.

Midnight Glory a nice type on 97% is in the fitness zone and follow after tonight’s good 4th in weaker city race.

Pierro coming up soon.

Snitzerland improved on fitness to peak tonight rating 98% fit and she just keeps winning.

Many nice group horses were 1st up tonight and 2nd up their fitness can vary so much, so didn’t even bother to talk about them on this edition.

Pierro looks magnificent in the mounting yard rating 100% SUPER FIT @ $1.08 creamed them. He is filling out in massive strength factors as a 3yo and looks like an international career is just around the corner. Wow! Look at him go, 2-3-4-5 lengths and still powering away; a real Super star!

He goes into our Stable of Stars and some have said a few are short in our stable but as our fitness editorials go worldwide in many publications, I like to keep all punters in all countries informed about our super stars.

The Melbourne Cup.

Apart from Winchester, I have not seen a horse stand out yet for our Melbourne Cup on good size, scope, fitness, strength factors and ability. I hope something comes around soon.


Stable of Stars:

Unbeaten star colt Pierro with 8 from 8; joins our Stable of Stars and on peak 100% fitness levels he only needs fine tuning for the Cox Plate. Can he beat More Joyous?


•   Epaulette (Aust)
•   More Joyous (Aust)
•   Zurella (Aust)
•   Huka Falls (Singapore)
•   Molto Bene (Aust)
•   Winchester(Aust/USA)
•   Pierro (Aust)


Online Gintara

  • Group 1
  • User 16
  • Posts: 12209
« 2012-Sep-29, 10:57 AM Reply #42 »
How much do your subscribers pay for you to tell that after the fact that Pierro is a star  :chin:

 :wacko:

Offline Appman

  • Open
  • User 2017
  • Posts: 152
« 2012-Sep-30, 09:24 AM Reply #43 »
No 8   How we got $2.32 More Joyous

Value Punting Tip using fitness:

Champion mare More Joyous on 97% fit had far superior form to her rivals today with a price of $1.04, or 25/1 on.

How do you make money on races like this when the winner is a shoe-in?

One way is to find the fittest horse in the race and take it in an exotic bet to run 2nd to More Joyous.

We did that in Skyerush on 97% fit with the favourite way Colorado Clair only 95% fit and took the exotic bet 1-2, More Joyous to win with Skyerush to run 2nd: @ a very juicy price of $2.32.

As the race panned out More Joyous had gone for home lengths in front and Skyerush and Colorado Clair were head to head, fighting it out for 2nd placing. Superior fitness told with Skyerush as it drew clear of Colorado [/b]Claire.

Fitness ratings got us a huge $2.32 dividend as compared to a $1.04 win being on More Joyous.

So even if you have a certainty, you can still find good value if you have a fitness edge in your punting.

Our black booker’s are start to race again and winners yesterday were Holylonny, Kabayan, More Joyous with the unlucky Hard Liquor at $14.00/$3.60 place running a great 3rd.

We went back twice with Hard Liquor in the Pick 4 and got a nice flexi percentage of the $2.2k dividend. Follow Hard Liquor, huge run. Others are placing.

Punters Bewa We cautioned punters on “Strawberry Boy also on 98% was found wanting and be very careful when you want to back him, he may not stay” in a previous edition and yesterday at odds on again failed to deliver for favourite punters, so our mail was spot on right.

International Fitness Report

The nice strong type from Ireland, Julienas goes into our black booker list. In good fitness levels of 96% he ran a cracking 2nd and has 4 lengths improvement in him and will stay. So watch out for this bloke in the bigger distance races coming up.

Stable of Stars.

We have two new inductees into our stable of stars and one is Julienas (see above) and the other is the raw talent of Kabayan.

I have had my eye on this horse for a month now and when the trainer by passed a big Sydney race to come to Melbourne I thought, “this is a huge ask” in my opinion. He wasn’t right and failed. With the race experience under his belt, he was still only on 96% fit, a slight improvement but toyed with the opposition including the highly promising Albrecht on superior fitness of 98%.

This is a very nice horse and the size of his hind quarters will only strengthen to stronger levels with hypertrophic fitness training and he really could be a star in the future. He is untapped in super fitness so far.

•   Epaulette (Aust)
•   More Joyous (Aust)
•   Zurella (Aust)
•   Huka Falls (Singapore)
•   Molto Bene (Aust)
•   Winchester(Aust/USA)
•   Pierro (Aust)
•   Julienas (Aust)
•   Kabayan (Aust)




Offline Appman

  • Open
  • User 2017
  • Posts: 152
« 2012-Oct-01, 07:46 AM Reply #44 »
No 9.  Why do odds on horses lose?

Why do odds on horses lose?

Because they were not fit enough to win and many are also media hyped up so much that brings the prices down; but does not make them any fitter!

Practised was looked up as a good thing today at Caulfield at in the red on $1.55 and got beat.

Why?

Because it was not the fittest horse in the race, in-fact Practised was the 3rd fittest horse with winner Whisper Downs on 98% fit ($6.00) a nice big, strong horse, then Zumac also on 98% fit at 20/1 (3rd) Practised odds on and only 97% fit had two fitter horses against him and that is wrong if you are backing a horse so far in the red.

Why did Practised lose?

Because his because his strength factors are low which prevents solid hypertrophic levels, so they were low and his nutritional levels are down. Hi fitness factors were ok but he must have a balance fitness chart and he would of won that race easily on 100% Super Fit. He died on his run because of unbalanced fitness levels.

Just be careful taking the odds on about him again, as you got burnt today. I have seen this hundreds of times.

That’s the first race down, punters are hitting the bottom of their pockets, and bookies are smiling, so let’s see what happens in the mounting yard in the next.

Black book winner Chateau Margaux ($2.24) as a nice type and on 97% fittest rating won easily. Is clearly in the upwards fitness zone for more wins. On 95% fit nice type country horse Mauritius can be now ready for an easier bush race. Things are cool day so let’s wait for race 3.

Black book the well tried Star of Giselle on only 96% fit showed her class by leading all the way and still has 4 lengths of improvement in her, follow. 97% fitter stable mate Sharnee Rose had every chance and now her ability is questionable in anything higher in grade.

Editorial feedback:
Thanks j**
“I took Hard Liquor for the place yesterday fixed odds of $4.40 on sportsbet. I’m slowly becoming a believer in your system”. Regards S***

Quality looking with plenty of size and scope is filly A Time of Julia on 97% fit 2nd up ran a great race and black booker her in coming races.

Favourite Love for Ransom on only 95% fit, drew wide but can improve dramatically next start with higher fitness levels. She was never going to win. Black book as her odds will go out.

Stable of Star member and quality type, Epaulette on 98% was sweating up and still has 2 lengths improvement in him on his great win ($2.10) today. Top horse!

Just off this hot pace, the nice speedy type in If I Could on 97% fit is ready for an easier race, and they do back this horse when right!

Another black booker won today in Callanish by many lengths and holds his high 98% fitness rating from his last win. He just keeps winning!

My Asian editorial on yesterday’s Japan and Hong Kong races will have plenty of black bookers and a fitness report on of our Stable of Stars stars Huka Falls 2nd up performance.

Black booker winners on Sunday were Epaulette, Callanish with Sharnee Rose 2nd that I can find.

It’s been a busy last 3 race days for this little black duck and I hope you got onto some of our fitness black book winners.

Stable of stars

•   Epaulette (Aust)
•   More Joyous (Aust)
•   Zurella (Aust)
•   Huka Falls (Singapore)
•   Molto Bene (Aust)
•   Winchester(Aust/USA)
•   Pierro (Aust)
•   Julienas (Aust)
•   Kabayan (Aust)

Offline Wenona

  • VIP Club
  • Group 1
  • User 175
  • Posts: 7315
« 2012-Oct-01, 09:26 AM Reply #45 »
As our mate is simply spruiking a paid service generally considered to be a scam and we are aware of his previous 'form' shouldn't this thread be deleted as spam.


Offline dubbledee

  • VIP Club
  • Group 1
  • User 285
  • Posts: 34011
« 2012-Oct-01, 09:28 AM Reply #46 »
Wenona, the humour value is, at present, negating the spam argument - just.  :unsu

Offline Tevez17

  • Group 1
  • User 159
  • Posts: 7029
« 2012-Oct-01, 09:58 AM Reply #47 »
Haven't seen anything linked to a paid service  :what:

Offline wily ole dog

  • Group 1
  • User 218
  • Posts: 25632
« 2012-Oct-01, 11:04 AM Reply #48 »
No 9.  Why do odds on horses lose?



Why did Practised lose?
 his nutritional levels are down.




Are you be of the staff that feeds him, or the vet?

Online Gintara

  • Group 1
  • User 16
  • Posts: 12209
« 2012-Oct-01, 02:03 PM Reply #49 »
Haven't seen anything linked to a paid service  :what:

You miss this bit Tev?

“I took Hard Liquor for the place yesterday fixed odds of $4.40 on sportsbet. I’m slowly becoming a believer in your system”. Regards S***


BACK TO ALL TOPICS
Sitemap