No 5 International Fitness Reports 23-09-2012
Fitness Punting Tips:
If you are going to lay an unfit horse, make sure you have 4-5 fitter horse also in the race just to safe guard your wager.
Good morning and I hope everybody backed a winner or two on the weekend of stars coming out for the big spring carnival races in Australia.
Exclusive to our readers we start on the important fitness levels of some of the Internationals horses now having a run before the longer classics come up, like the Melbourne Cup.
We also have some sensational value bet black bookers to watch out for in the coming weeks and we give you an in-depth, behind the scenes of what happened from the stables at Caulfield on Saturday.
Ok, let’s get into it!
Our first black booker is a beauty, when they ever drop him back in distance, it can win at.
Kneeling on a balanced 97% fitness just needs to drop back in distance as Saturdays unplaced race of 1400 metres now has a strike rate of 4-0-0-0 over the distance. Fit to perform in something shorter, this nice strong type is fit. Our first value bet black booker.
Shopaholics on 96% is a nice size horse and wait for 3rd up or next run in 20 days, a consistent horse in this grade.
Hvasstan and the nice type Rawnaq both on 96% and 2nd up ran great races and now 3rd up next time they can be fitter, so black book to perform well again.
Not sure what they can do with The Travelling Man on a great 98% fit, he just can’t seem to run past 700 metres, super strong type but maybe a small heart.
Black book Canali on a good 97% fit, finished the race off nicely and can get in the winner’s circle in similar type races next start.
The well tried $12 - $8 Menados on a good, balanced 96% first up run was extremely unlucky not to get the plunge home. Ran into 3-4 dead ends everywhere along the rail and this nice type has a 2 from 2 strike rate 2nd up, so watch out for him soon.
The thousand Guineas Prelude for fillies was the next race and quite a few stripped on good 97% equal fitness levels and our best black booker of the day is Molto Bene, a nice type from Adelaide and this good looking filly was a mile back in the field once they settled, trapped 3 wide under the whip 600 from home and flashed down the outside for a brilliant 3rd, black book her.
The big, strong filly Bloomingdale Miss had two bouts of extended exercise in the stable yards for long periods of time then raced 2nd on the pace and weaken out.
On a good 96% fit, this solid filly will trim down 5-6kg fitter next start, so watch out for at value odds.
Hot favourite and nice leggy type Commanding Jewel on 97% fit, just run out of gas over the last 100 metres after trying to lead all the way. I am not convinced she will stay, so be careful punters, because Molto Bene gave her 15 or more lengths start and ran all over Commanding Jewel up the straight. On the small side, Spitfire Lady on good 97% fit can easily drop back to a weaker race and win next start at value odds.
The hot, hot favourite on only 95% fit 2nd up was backed for a fortune but I layed it not to run a place with many fitter horses against it. Manighar will benefit from that run.
Horses well and truly in the “high fitness zone” are Sincero on 98%, Zabeelionaire 98%, Ocean Park 98% fit and Southern Speed a striking type also on 98% Super Fit. So you can see why laying Manighar not to run a place on 3 lengths lower fitness levels was a great bet.
Add our next value bet black booker from that race is Illo on 98% super fit, this nice type is soon ready for an easier race, follow him next 2-3 starts at big value odds, so it won’t break your bank.
Next exclusive information from the stables is the performance one of our Stable Stars, Zurella on 97% fit. She had lower strength factors than her great 1st up run and this daughter of Zabeel may also have a few loose brain cells pre-race as she plays up something terrible, jumping and spinning around for 20 minutes before her races. She didn’t go up to the mounting yard until they were ready to go on the track. Second up today, she got well back and had to go wide making up some ground in just an ordinary effort. She needs back stronger strength factors and she will be fitter. I will wait to rate her in fitness next start for a final conclusion. To win Group 1 races you need no weak links especially one that uses up high energy before a race.
Value bet black booker Shenzhou Steeds on 96% fitness and can improve many lengths next start, so watch out for him.
More value bet black bookers this time in Single Minded on 96% fit raced out wide up early on a fast pace and just had to weaken out of it, easier race and good odds sounds super to me.
All Too Hard got me @ $1.85 place and on 100% Super Fit missed the start and really did very little, never again.
International Fitness report.
Our world 1st exclusive, fitness report of the imports starting to race in Australia.
Winchester lightly raced, from the USA is a proven, consistent performer in distance Group 1 races and has won over $1.7 million in prize money. This horse is a magnificent strong specimen and on today’s low 95% fitness levels and in 4-6 week time, there is a nice race here for him, maybe the Sandown Cup. If he comes to hand quickly, the Melbourne Cup may not be out of the question!
The grey, Voila Ici on 97% fit ran a bottler, but is on the smaller size and something off the Group 1 level there could be nice pickings for him.
Stable of Stars:
Two new horses today for our Stable of Stars and they are smart filly, Molto Bene and I am putting in Winchester from the USA and watch for him later when he strikes a bit of form, very impressive type.
o Epaulette (Aust)
o More Joyous (Aust)
o Zurella (Aust)
o Huka Falls (Singapore)
o Molto Bene (Aust)