Corporates - Bonuses, Specials etc - Betting, Tips & Ratings - Racehorse TALK harm-plan harm-plan

Racehorse TALK



Corporates - Bonuses, Specials etc - Betting, Tips & Ratings - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: Corporates - Bonuses, Specials etc  (Read 122329 times)

0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

Online PoisonPen7

  • Group 1
  • User 55
  • Posts: 19477
« 2017-Dec-02, 09:35 PM Reply #825 »
No real surprise to see PP7 joined by fellow delusional fours.

And both of them dead wrong.

As I've stated earlier Exotics are stitched up. In many many ways.

So virtually nobody below the Premium Player level stands any chance of a decent long-term profit.

PP7's examples of Doubles and Trifectae won't work for him because he is betting blind, while his Premium opponents enjoy the Odds he can't see.

You can see doubles approximates on course. Quinella and Exacta dividends are available in a 2D table on the TAB website.

But what is the point for a "Premium Player" as you call them?

Surely their bets would be too large and if they "hit" a double that was overs then it soon would not be.

I would be extremely surprised if "Premium Players" like Z ever took a Daily Double.

The Daily Double pool in Sydney today was $50,000, and that is the #1 Daily Double pool all week. Everything else is significantly less. You'd get very bored playing one or two DD's every week and regardless of what you say, if you do not make an informed decision when making your selections then you will lose - doesn't matter how smart you think you are.

(unless you are getting rebates as per my previous statement).

Offline fours

  • Group 1
  • User 704
  • Posts: 5111
« 2017-Dec-02, 10:47 PM Reply #826 »
hmmm,

I am not so sure that a BOT programmed to pick off the overs for a % of the pool size is overly smart these days. More disciplined than most for sure but also rather old hat too. Where is the cleverness in that?

A few %'s to consider by this delusional punter from 4 approaches on Japanese racing merely being monitored for now in terms of returns.    128%, 110%,  87% and 134% where 100% is just money back. The favourites strike rate does seem high ( here you go Peter Mair ) but who says I want them to win?

Now that is a whole lot better than the 8% POT smart pros are said to get.

Sure small pool size is playing a role, both good and bad, but for anyone to suggest exotic pools are done to death long ago - only goes to show that they are in fact the delusional ones. Time to learn some new tricks I suggest; getting very stale and closed minded on the old ones.

Fours




Online Bubbasmith

  • Group 1
  • User 197
  • Posts: 7463
« 2017-Dec-03, 08:30 AM Reply #827 »
Jackpot Pools on Unbet are a good example of the activities of Premium Players in exotic pools. Regardless of the carryover jackpot amount on a treble, exacta, quinella etc clearly the amount of new money bet in the last minute prior to the jump, ALWAYS, negates the carryover amount . Regardless of the piddling amount of the carryover jackpot this regularly happens. As an example on race one last night at Albion Park trots there was  $10,000 carryover jackpot on the F4, with less than one minute before the start the pool was around $40,000 ( looking good for a bonus for punters) but alas after the race the pool jump to $63,900. ( see below )
I am sure that money bet in that last minute is not bet randomly by retail punters but by Premium Players who manipulate their investments to ensure any jackpot carryover amount is negated in order that other punters have nothing to gain , other than a reduced deduction rate , from betting into that jackpot pool.

Using last nights F4 as an example.

Carryover jackpot amount $10,000
New Money Invested : $53,900
Total pool : $63,900
Tax Deducted @ 20 %::$12,780 ( Ubet deducts 20 % from total pool including jackpot carryover )
Net Pool :$51,120
Punters loss :$2,780

Do not worry Premium Players will bet on anything, regardless how piddling the size of carryover jackpots, to maintain their turnover thresholds and keep other punters out of the game.

Offline fours

  • Group 1
  • User 704
  • Posts: 5111
« 2017-Dec-03, 09:04 AM Reply #828 »
Bubba,

Trying to tell some one that jackpot pools are not such a good idea is a hard sell. Pegasyber loves them and I cant get through to him.

It is pretty clear that BOTS are prgrammed to bet to a % of the jackpot and or pool size regardless 24 hours a day..... almost but not quite. there are a few exceptions.

I think Anomaly Nick sold soft ware to this end as well.

For me BOTS and the Benter way are asking for the tax man to come hither as most elements of the case law are satisfied to get you to pay tax on any winnings.

To the few punters who make good profits despite NOT using these methods - you are the clever ones rathe than the copy cats.

Fours

Online jfc

  • Group 1
  • User 723
  • Posts: 6229
« 2017-Dec-03, 10:37 AM Reply #829 »
Consider someone on the base tier of the Premium scheme, making 2% POT.

His annual return (in Large) would be ~

100 Profit +
200 Kickback

If he manages to double his turnover to reach the next tier (+15% Kickback) but halves his POT, then -

100 Profit +
430 Kickback

Certainly worth having a go.

The sane way to try this is to look at his best segments (say) 6% POT, and bet more into them until they drop to 1% POT.

As well as trying out previously un-bet segments.

The consequence of this strategy is that all segments will end up having poor value.

No good whatsoever for any aspiring punters hoping to make it.

But no problem whatsoever for that Premium guy on 530 Large.

With the added bonus the new competition has been completely shut out.

Note that the above numbers have not just been plucked from the ether.

They are based on public (but fucking hard to find) data.

All this is one more way of restating that Exotics have been completely stitched up for a long time.

Offline arthur

  • Group 2
  • User 446
  • Posts: 2468
« 2017-Dec-08, 03:40 PM Reply #830 »
"Bluebet" offering to match $200 deposit with $200 bonus bet for new customers

Any opinions about Bluebet and / or the offer

How early are they with their fixed odds compared with 365 who seem to go up now before Sportsbet on the mid week country TAB's

Online Bubbasmith

  • Group 1
  • User 197
  • Posts: 7463
« 2017-Dec-09, 07:06 AM Reply #831 »
"Bluebet" offering to match $200 deposit with $200 bonus bet for new customers

Any opinions about Bluebet and / or the offer

How early are they with their fixed odds compared with 365 who seem to go up now before Sportsbet on the mid week country TAB's
I got banned after two weeks betting.

Offline arthur

  • Group 2
  • User 446
  • Posts: 2468
« 2017-Dec-13, 09:06 PM Reply #832 »
How early are they with their fixed odds compared with 365 who seem to go up now before Sportsbet on the mid week country TAB's

Well they are at least 4 hours behind 365 for tomorrow

And speaking of 365 . . . Tried to put $20 on a 21.0 chance tomorrow

They 'referred $1.25 to  superior' . . AND . . rejected it . .  took $18.75  :sad:



The 'battling bush bookie at Barcaldine' is forced to 'lose a thousand' 

Offline gunbower

  • Group3
  • User 2463
  • Posts: 710
« 2017-Dec-13, 10:18 PM Reply #833 »
Arthur you are so right. It is time for those in the "Coward's Castle" to get fair dinkum with these parasites. Make them bet per bet as a minimum what a licensed on course bookie has to bet. If they won't just piss them off. None pay tax in Australia anyway, so what have we lost ? Absolutely nothing.

Offline Spudda028

  • Group 2
  • User 199
  • Posts: 4741
« 2017-Dec-14, 11:19 AM Reply #834 »
Had a fair crack at Ardoyne Road in the 2yo MM Classic using a bonus bet and my own money, With the trainer coming out and saying it now won't run there, made the call to one corp enquiring on if it was an all in market and if as part was a bonus bet would I get anything from them. Not a skerrick, no part bonus bet to re-use have done all my money and the bonus bet cold. It's fully what I expected being an all in market but would it have killed them to throw a dog a bone?

Closed the account on the spot electing not to have the option to re-open in future.

It's a competitive market out there, sooner these clowns realize it the better,

Offline Wenona

  • VIP Club
  • Group 1
  • User 175
  • Posts: 7176
« 2017-Dec-16, 10:56 AM Reply #835 »
Be a bit careful today if you regularly use the Sportsbet bonus bet refunds on races 1-4 B-S-M.

Today the small print says they are for NSW residents only  ...... I've emailed for confirmation.


Offline Dave

  • Group3
  • User 2322
  • Posts: 965
« 2017-Dec-21, 04:33 PM Reply #836 »
Anyone thinking of opening an account with Sportsbetting (as opposed to Sportsbet) if the fact that they say they have BOB is of any influence beware.....they are telling Porkies, it is only for their VIP's......the practice of Deception is alive and well.......not sure what else they say they offer that they actually don't but I am steering clear of them, I would advise everyone else to do the same!


BACK TO ALL TOPICS
Sitemap