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Racehorse TALK



Erina Leagues Club Mdn Plate. - Betting, Tips & Ratings - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: Erina Leagues Club Mdn Plate.  (Read 3870 times)

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Online westie

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O.P. « 2009-Jan-27, 09:17 PM »
let's try an experiment ........

Can someone pick out a race ... anywhere tomorrow will do ....... and the rest of us can have a go at selecting the best roughie for that race .........

No prizes just gloating rights.

My selection not knowing the odds is: Gravatas - first starter.

Offline woodywob

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« 2009-Jan-27, 09:24 PM Reply #1 »
I'll go for # 9 Asset Rain

Offline Mantaray

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« 2009-Jan-28, 06:58 AM Reply #2 »
Will select any first starter over $20. At the moment (7AM in Qld, 8AM Wyong) #14 is $4.80 Unitab, but about $70 on the other two Tabs. Which is closer to the "truth"?

Just to make it interesting will also put $1 on any first starter which makes the $20 mark, all day.. And also look at Betfair to see what might have been.


PS. Can someone explain how you use the "quote" button please?
« Last Edit: 2009-Jan-28, 08:24 AM by Mantaray »

Offline Bundy

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« 2009-Jan-28, 07:12 AM Reply #3 »
Leaping Leroy for me.
I have it as a 20/1 shot in my raw ratings.....but I see it as about an 8/1 shot after refinement......

Offline gratlog

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« 2009-Jan-28, 07:25 AM Reply #4 »
Can someone explain how you use the "quote" button please?

Mate,just highlite what you want to quote by running your cursor over it then press the quote button

Offline Sporty

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« 2009-Jan-28, 07:25 AM Reply #5 »
#5 Inter Stargaze

Offline Mantaray

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« 2009-Jan-28, 08:23 AM Reply #6 »
westie. Gravatas was the one I mentioned in my post #14. It is now scratched.

Offline OldLarsy

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« 2009-Jan-28, 08:36 AM Reply #7 »
I honestly can't see the significance of this  :what:

Offline Sporty

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« 2009-Jan-28, 08:45 AM Reply #8 »
I honestly can't see the significance of this  :what:



Me either but go along with the flow... :p

Offline gratlog

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« 2009-Jan-28, 09:01 AM Reply #9 »
All us clever punters know that Asset Rain will win this . ;)


Offline Mantaray

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« 2009-Jan-28, 09:38 AM Reply #10 »
OldLarsy

There's no real significance...except that it might start a few thinking about roughies.

If one gets up in this race...or maybe another race today, I'm guessing there will be a few looking further into the reasons.

Maybe a few could investigate just when..in what circumstances..maidens win their first race. At what point can you (mostly) say "this one will never win a race"?

If you find the "last chance" scenario then you will have a good idea what "value" is.

For example, if 99% of maidens win within 10 races (say) then you might conclude that any maiden having it's 11th run should be at least 100-1, no matter how good it's 9th and 10th runs appeared.

Or, you might discover that apprentices are no help at all, long-term. Hopeless horse+inexperienced rider= very bad bet. Or else the opposite: inexperienced horse+ less weight= good bet.

Forums are not for tipping winners. The papers and radio/TV, internet is already full of tipsters. forums are for thrashing out (new?) ideas. I hope.
« Last Edit: 2009-Jan-28, 10:15 AM by Mantaray »

Offline gratlog

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« 2009-Jan-28, 11:44 AM Reply #11 »
The top rated horse on Unitab won the first at Wyong and paid $20.

Why bother doing all the work when they do it for you  :lol:  

Offline gallopers

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« 2009-Jan-28, 12:29 PM Reply #12 »
Manta,
           roughies are rough because they have little or no chance on paper. to try and find value with first starters is like trying to find a needle in a haystack. If you did happen to find one that was 20/1 + generally the owners and trainer thought it was little hope as well, hence the price.
The odd roughie wins at its first race start mostly because it just puts it all together on the day, the raceday atmosphere may agree with it. some horses are lazy trackworkers and fly raceday but to work this out early would be nearly impossible.
This is just a small part of the puzzle your looking for.
I think racings a 100 piece jigsaw and the first few parts are the roughies, its hard to work out where they fit in.

Offline MagiC~*

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« 2009-Jan-28, 12:41 PM Reply #13 »
If you did happen to find one that was 20/1 + generally the owners and trainer thought it was little hope as well,

Not all stables are big punting stables Gallopers, we have had plenty of runners we thought could win at good odds, and have had plenty that have.

I don't know about maidens with unexposed form , but if you look right into any horse that wins at good odds you can normally go back and find a reason to have backed them.

Most of the time people don't go back far enough into their form and, as you suggest don't put all the pieces of the puzzle together.

Thing is if you go back though every horses form you could probably find a reason to back most, but it is the real obvious reasons that some horses start alot shorter then most.

 :)

edit: disclaimer, there will always be one that wins with out any reason at all  :shy:


Offline Mantaray

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« 2009-Jan-28, 12:57 PM Reply #14 »
Only one selection thus far.  Wyong Race 2 #3. Next BR2 #1 and #5.Next in Geelong Race 4 #12, then Wyong 5 #1 (maybe) and #3.

That's all. The usual complaint against backing roughies is that there are too many bets. Hmmm. Yesterday there were 4 First Starters (or 5, depending on what's a roughie).  It looks like  about 2  (or3) per meeting. Is this too many?

Gallopers. You may be misunderstanding me. A first-starter can be the favourite (or near) or a rank outsider. The one which is a favourite is STILL an unknown race quantity. That the bulk of money is on that one is the wishful thinking,,,the $100 trying to win $400 is much more wishful thinking than $4 at 100-1.

Also. Be careful about jumping to conclusions. Do the maths. For Wyong race 2 #3, there was about $2500 on it in Victoria...$3000 in NSW....$2000 Unitab. How much was from the connections? To have made it a near fav the connections would have to have bet up to $50,000 TAB-wide. Isn't $8000 (if it were the connections) enough? Still sure they weren't betting? How do you know?
« Last Edit: 2009-Jan-28, 01:03 PM by Mantaray »

Online westie

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« 2009-Jan-28, 01:20 PM Reply #15 »

My selection not knowing the odds is: Gravatas - first starter.

OK I'll go No 12 Motto Fellice.  I think the placings will be 7-2-6-12

Offline Mantaray

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« 2009-Jan-28, 02:06 PM Reply #16 »
Excellent result westie!!

Offline OldLarsy

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« 2009-Jan-28, 02:12 PM Reply #17 »

My selection not knowing the odds is: Gravatas - first starter.

OK I'll go No 12 Motto Fellice.  I think the placings will be 7-2-6-12

He started this thread and selected the race, must have known something

7-REGIMENTAL HERO   5.50   1.60   Qin 7 - 2   4.20   Interim Results 
 
2-CASTELLANI      1.20   Exa 7 - 2   11.80   
12-MOLTO FELICE      2.70   Due 7 - 2   2.80   
6-LEAPING LEROY      0.00   Due 7 - 12   12.40   
         Due 2 - 12   6.10   
         Tri 7 - 2 - 12   93.10   
         Ffr 7 - 2 - 12 - 6   538.40   

  emthup

Offline Big Wheel

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« 2009-Jan-28, 02:16 PM Reply #18 »
 I agree plenty of trainers give them 2 quiet trials and then
they start a good price at there 1st start, i find some nice winners
from the trials esp 1st starters and surprisingly some are good odds

Offline Stormy

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« 2009-Jan-28, 05:47 PM Reply #19 »
The top rated horse on Unitab won the first at Wyong and paid $20.

Why bother doing all the work when they do it for you  :lol:  

Have a look at the ratings   :biggrin:
Cheers 8-)


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