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First 4 Methods - Betting, Tips & Ratings - Racehorse TALK

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Offline triple7

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O.P. « 2011-Oct-24, 05:37 PM »
I having been playing around with some First 4 methods, and wondered if any have any particular approaches / methods that they prefer and might like to share.  

DD shared with us some yrs ago an approach of ABC for trifectas that can be used for F4's, selecting your A B and C runners and then taking a few tickets where an A or B runner must win, and a A runner must run 1, 2, 3 or 4 (if taking 4 tickets). The A runner/s are those you are confident could win or should run a place, B runner/s those you consider a danger / chance, C runners those you expect / need to fill the holes. If your A runners don't fill a hole you have a dead combination. This explanation will require further detail.

Any other approaches / methods that others like to use / find helpful?



I have attached as a pdf a copy of the worksheet that I use based on the approach outlined by DD in this thread which might be helpful for anyone interested.

If anyone has trouble with a download please let me know or alternativly email me at - thesevens777@hotmail.com and I shall send you a copy.


NB. This is the method that I use more often than not, but can be modified to suit (more or less A B or C selections), and is to act as a guide only.



[attachment deleted by admin]
« Last Edit: 2011-Oct-26, 08:40 AM by triple7 »

Online fours

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« 2011-Oct-24, 05:52 PM Reply #1 »
Triple7,

I gave an approach one can try on DD's place thread for fourth..... He did not like it.

Others might.

Fours

Offline dubbledee

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« 2011-Oct-24, 06:58 PM Reply #2 »
Triple7,

I gave an approach one can try on DD's place thread for fourth..... He did not like it.

Others might.

Fours

Fours, I think you should take another look at my comments.

What I said was that picking First Fours AFTER the race was easy.  You continued to miss that point.

Why not open a thread and show us your skills BEFORE the race.  They're the ones that count.  :bulb:

Offline dubbledee

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« 2011-Oct-24, 07:05 PM Reply #3 »
777, I'll do a post on my suggested approach.  It's the best I've seen and has given me some monster returns.

But before doing so, it's worth listing the simple approaches.

1.  Boxing N horses will require N x (N-1) x (N-2) x (N-3) combinations.

That is, IMO, not the way to take FFs.

2.  Taking a rover of 1 horse with N others will require 1 x N x (N-1) x (N-2) x 3 combinations.

Thus, roving 1 horse with 6 others requires 1 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 = 360 combos.

3.  Taking W horses to win, X horses to run 2nd, Y horses to run 3rd and Z horses to run 4th will require W x (X-1) x (Y-2) x (Z-3) combinations.  Note that the horses on each line MUST be continued to the next line.  Any other approach would be illogical.

As an example, 3 to win, 4 to run 2nd, 6 to run 3rd and 8 to run 4th, gives us 3 x 3 x 4 x 5 = 180 combos

These are the basics, but some might not understand them, so they're listed in detail.
« Last Edit: 2011-Oct-24, 07:09 PM by dubbledee »

Offline dubbledee

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« 2011-Oct-24, 07:08 PM Reply #4 »
Oh, and another common one...

4. You stand out 1 horse as the winner, and have N others to run the places.

The required combos is 1 x N x (N-1) x (N-2).

Thus to have your selection to win with 6 others is 1 x 6 x 5 x 4 = 120 combos.

Offline pegasyber

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« 2011-Oct-24, 07:31 PM Reply #5 »
Thanks Triple7 / Fours and DD, A most interesting subject, I wonder what you would have done in this event.

Now I came up with three primary absolute selects of [  14  5  9  ] and a second set of specials [  3  13  11  4  5   9 ]

How would you structure your First Four multis in this case.

 Most of this info was put up on the Forum before the race in the Tattsbet thread or Cox Plate thread, but not in color.

« Last Edit: 2011-Oct-24, 08:40 PM by pegasyber »

Offline dubbledee

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« 2011-Oct-24, 07:48 PM Reply #6 »
The First Four staking method referred to in the opening post goes like this.

You assign your FF chances into 3 categories:

A = one of which MUST run 1st 2nd or 3rd.

B = can win, and of course can run a place.

C = cannot win, but can run a place.

Let's look at an example:

You think HELMET and JIMMY CHOUX are your top chances in the Cox Plate.

You also think SINCERO, REKINDLED INTEREST and PINKER PINKER are winning chances.

You think WALL STREET, LION TAMER and SECRET ADMIRER are place hopes.

So, we have 2 horses on the A line, 3 on the B line, and 3 on the C line.

To box those 8 in the FF requires 1680 combos.  That's a bit over the top for most of us - but of course it's the easy approach.

I suggest trimming down the costs along the lines mentioned above.

We take 3 tickets:

Ticket 1: A x (A+B+C) x (A+B+C) x (A+B+C) = 2 x 7 x 6 x 5 = 420 combos.

Ticket 2: B x A x (A+B+C) x (A+B+C) = 3 x 2 x 6 x 5 = 180 combos

Ticket 3: B x (B+C) x A x (A+B+C) = 3 x 5 x 2 x5 = 150 combos

Thus the total combos is reduced to 750 combos (vs 1680).

As it happens, we would have got the FF.  Good judge, eh?    :lol:

Those combos might sound a bit complicated, but with experience ya can put them on blindfolded.

Obviously, we can apply flexi-betting to this strategy.  That minimises outlays, and/or allows us to cover more horses.

Anyone with basic spreadsheet skills can produce a Table with various numbers on the A, B and C lines.

As an example, having 3 on the A line (one of which MUST run 1st, 2nd or 3rd), 3 more on the B line (any of which can win or run a 2nd, 3rd or 4th), and 3 more on the C line (any one which can run 2nd, 3rd or 4th), requires 1656 combos.  Anyone could pick a First Four with that number, surely?

 :whistle:


 

Offline JWesleyHarding

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« 2011-Oct-24, 08:22 PM Reply #7 »
C = cannot win, but can run a place.

Someone should check on Ara following the choice of this race as an example of the First Four staking strategy.

Online fours

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« 2011-Oct-24, 08:23 PM Reply #8 »
Doubledee,

Now doing it after the race hey.....

Back in February I gave some methodical steps that anyone can follow before the race, as easily as after the race, to obtain value from the first four. That value has a cost in that low dividend combos simply were not taken by using permutations.

The race involved Teary Eyed 3rd up and in the near future Teary Eyed will be 3rd up once again - having shown little so far in its first two starts in as per usual. History doesnot repeat exactly and the good run may be 4th or 5th in rather than 3rd in but I will have a go before the race for each of those races. A small get out clause is that if the race is too easy I will pass that race - mid week too.

Fours


Offline dubbledee

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« 2011-Oct-24, 08:33 PM Reply #9 »
Fours, just open a thread and show us how ya win.

Not that difficult is it?

Online fours

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« 2011-Oct-24, 08:44 PM Reply #10 »
Doubledee,

Please refer to the $400.00 tipping competition..... the last few years.

Fours

Offline el zoro

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« 2011-Oct-24, 08:49 PM Reply #11 »
My best return ever on a F4(scooped the pool) was by putting my top 2 picks on top, & 3 others for the placings. My only advice is to always include a roughie somewhere as that is what you will need to pay a really big div.
AB * ABCDE * ABCDE * ABCDE
2 x 4 x 3 x 2 = 48 combos for 25% = $12
 

So the logic is that you have 2 picks to get the winner & if your roughie lobs in somewhere then you still have 3 horses to run the other 2 spots. Still, you gotta have some luck on your side.
 

Offline dubbledee

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« 2011-Oct-24, 08:54 PM Reply #12 »
Doubledee,

Please refer to the $400.00 tipping competition..... the last few years.
Fours

We're talking about First Fours, I thought?

OK, so you found a roughie or two.  :clap2: Even I've tipped a 100/1 winner.   :lol:

Offline monologue

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« 2011-Oct-24, 09:03 PM Reply #13 »
My way of getting the First Fours numbers across the line is for me to take a 4 horse boxed trifecta.

Works quite often. :mad:

Online fours

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« 2011-Oct-24, 09:03 PM Reply #14 »
Doubledee,

As El Zoro writes you have to get a roughie into the first four to make good money. Unless short combos, only, are taken many times in a low variance race ( derbys come to mind ).

The roughie requirment is a bonus as this means we can do perms to drastically reduce the combos taken as against silly boxing methods.

As I showed on the example given on your place thread, I will do the same for teary Eyed next few runs, if suitable, before the race. Of course if too many shorties fill the placings a loss will occur - so a long term outlook is required; as always.

Fours

Offline dubbledee

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« 2011-Oct-24, 09:06 PM Reply #15 »
Long-term, eh.  Well I've been taken 'em for 20 years, I'd reckon.   :lol:

Rather than prattle on about what's happened in the past, why not post a staking strategy for discussion.  :bulb:

Offline el zoro

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« 2011-Oct-24, 09:49 PM Reply #16 »
On roughies, to get a big F4 the roughie needs to come 1st or 2nd. DUH!  :shutup:
Most punters seem to throw them in for 3rd,4th which is probably more likely but would be a smaller div.
The combination I applied, allowed the roughie to fill 2nd spot which will knock most out.
   

Offline Shogun Lodge

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« 2011-Oct-24, 09:54 PM Reply #17 »
I much prefer A to win
then              BCDE for second
then              BCDE for third
then              BCDE for fourth
in say a 12 horse race
$24 gets ya 100 %?

Offline el zoro

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« 2011-Oct-24, 09:59 PM Reply #18 »
That's pretty much the same as mine but I have 2 to win it so only half the % of yours. The advantage of going 2 to win is that A option may be $4win & B option may be $10win. & you're dirty on yourself if ya pick the wrong one on top.
& ain't that Murphys Law, 2 to pick from & chuck wrong one on top.
   :lol:  

Online fours

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« 2011-Oct-24, 10:12 PM Reply #19 »
Fellas,

I give that method around 0.00% chance of getting the first four in the Melbourne Cup.

Fours

Offline el zoro

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« 2011-Oct-24, 10:42 PM Reply #20 »
Is triples talking about the Melb Cup?
 :unsu

Melb Cup is generally a 24 horse field so throw in a couple more for 4th & take a lower %.   :biggrin:
 
« Last Edit: 2011-Oct-24, 11:01 PM by el zoro »

Offline el zoro

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« 2011-Oct-24, 11:03 PM Reply #21 »
fours,
Why don't you start up a First 4 thread so we can all follow your bets.  8-)

Offline whispering

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« 2011-Oct-25, 01:32 AM Reply #22 »
why would he.

anyway my method is simple. normally stand out from 1 then 2 for second 3/4 for third and field for forth

and same with trifecta. a few picks with field. because the roughie is more likely to come 3rd, one would assume.

another one is field for first. but obviously i put field 4th in the cox plate.

Online fours

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« 2011-Oct-25, 06:12 AM Reply #23 »
All,

I'm not exactly a slave either but will say this. My earlier posts on Doubledee's thread back inFebruary, together with, my future posts on Teary Eyed's next few runs should provide all you need to make a start.

Only basic permutations will be covered from which you can take things further and make your own much more sophisticated approaches over time. For obvious reasons I prefer to keep my sophisticated approaches to myself. Your approach should vary as field size and feld depth vary and on many occasions you should decide not to bet at all; pool size being but one reason not to try.

The perms should always allow for roughies winning for good divdidends to be obtained. However the perms never the less reduce combos taken on reasonable logical decisions - but these decisions will vary as each race varies - and thus my earlier Melbourne Cup words. A "one size fits all' is not how you should do things.

Fours
« Last Edit: 2011-Oct-25, 06:16 AM by fours »

Offline triple7

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« 2011-Oct-25, 08:39 AM Reply #24 »
Shogun, El Z, Whispering, no particular approach may be right, and we will all prefer one way or another but the advantage of DD's method is that it offers you 5 winning chances, as any one of your 2 x A runners and 3 x B runners can win as long as an A runner places (1st, 2nd, 3rd), I'm sure there are many similar approaches (hence this discussion thread to share and explore). Since DD showed me this approach some 8 or so yrs ago I have had some lovely collects, many times where a 4th or 5th choice runner (B selection) has won at a nice price with the others all falling into place. With the flexi bet options available today this doesn't need to be expensive to play.

I have a simple 1 page guide that I use to plan a race in a few minutes using DD's ABC method, I will post it here a little later if a few want to use it.


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