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First 4 Methods - Betting, Tips & Ratings - Racehorse TALK

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Offline pegasyber

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« 2018-Feb-06, 06:34 PM Reply #600 »
  Thanks Spudda028 my ability to post these days is quite restricted but will try to get up , main special events some times.
  From my F4 winnings I bought for the kids a number of "Nutribullet" @ 600w, 900w and I see there is a 1000w   Nutribullet now available.  The 900w unit is quite moisy but certainly turns all fruits, nuts , seeds and veges into a very smooth drink and/or soup. All the families continue to use regularly,  The Nutribullet units  are now  available at most electrical stores these days, and it is probably worthwhile getting the 1000w unit.

   From the winnings I have also bought a number of the   FlavorStone Infusion Grill Fry Pans and find them extremely  useful for preparing quick meals, especially when you have forgotten to plan meals  ahead of time. The grandkids say they use the small pan every night. 

Offline nemisis

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« 2018-Feb-06, 09:01 PM Reply #601 »
Pegasyber, I enjoy your contributions here.

I generally bet in Victoria and these days mainly on Saturdays and don't do a lot of first fours.

 If you want to do the CF Orr Stakes on Sat.....I would be interested.
Some newcomers to WFA, a couple of promising 3yr olds and some regulars make for an interesting race.

Heard Darren Weir's assistant trainer this morning spruiking Tosen Stardom.

Offline pegasyber

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« 2018-Feb-09, 11:22 AM Reply #602 »
  Last year in the C F Orr Stakes the top two favourites came first and second.

  This study for Caulfield Race 8 on  Saturday 10/02/2018 should be looked at more as an integrity measure, after the event, but one can pick out a winner depending on their own leanings beliefs or bias.
Quote
VF140817 CF81002F * RACE NAME ID* [ CF81002F  2018. C.F. ORR STAKES,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 1400 mtrs]. COMPRUN 02-09-2018. AT 10:48:38 RESULT  [   1  10  4   8    ~   5   12  ] F4 $13,682. UBET

VF140817 CF81002F * LOW LRAC WDIV [  4  9  2  13  6  ] [  4 BRAVE SMAS.  ---  ].[ 9 DOLLAR FOR.  ---  ].[ 2 BLACK HEAR.  ---  ].[ 13 JESTER HAL.  ---  ].[ 6 TSHAHITSI .  ---  ].[ ] F4 &

VF140817 CF81002F *  TOP4 F4 FAVS [ FIRST FV=  3   ]. SECND FV=   1    ]. THIRD FV=  11   ]. FOURTH FV=   7    ]

  Compare the above two lines  after the event.

VF140817 CF81002F * WMSPD ORD TNO [     4     11     13     14      3      1     10      7      2      6      8      9      5     12     ]  * ] BMVRS/W [  11 SHILLELAGH W  6yo <. Dtl= 96 ] 13 JESTER HALO   5yo < --- . Dtl= 14 ] 14 MIGHTY BOSS   3yo <. Dtl= 117 ] 3 TOSEN STARDO  7yo <. Dtl= 89 ] ]*SPL*

VF140817 CF81002F * WMSPD RTG ORD [  986   968   954  947   931   930   930   922   920   919   918   912   910   905   ] IMPORTANT
VF140817 CF81002F * RQOD WMSPD RO [  2.4   4.3   8.4   13.2   40.4   43.5   43.5   67.9   75.1   79.3   83.9   113.6   113.6   170.9   ] IN WMSPD ORDER. $PRICE/1 CALCULATED RQD ODDS ON WT MODIFIED SPEED RATINGS *

VF140817 CF81002F * GW$CLASS$ ORD [   14    4    10    3    1    2    12    5    11    8    7    9    6    13   ].  12 ABBEY  110d -1000m  5.5k  5y]  [ 5 LORD O 21d  400m -.5k  7y]  [ 10 SINGLE 93d -1800m  4k  5y]  [ 2 BLACK  62d -400m  0k  ---  7y.

VF140817 CF81002F * SIMUL PACE ALL[   11   12   13   14    3    6    9    7    8    4    5    2   10    1   ] *BPT4 [  12 ABBEY  x12 ] *BMVRP [ 9 DOLLAR x5 [  6 TSHAHI x4 ] REL/SPWM. ESP F  1000-1200 USEFUL IN DIST/SOFT(6&UP/DEAD/SLOW/SAND esp. A TOP4 Ln*

VF140817 CF81002F * KEY SPEED NOS [   11  +I/C. +TJ!.  1 <:] =*NK*.  4  +!.  +GW!. +TJ!. 13  +!. +I/C. 14  +I/C. +GW!. +TJ!. .]>1.  3  +I/C. +GW!. +TJ!. 6  +!. 7   +TJ!. 8   +TJ!. 10   +GW!. 12   +TJ!] +!. =LRWD ]. *HiWM>GW$C [ < 12?kg. +TJ!.  +5.5?k<. < 5 +TJ!. < ]. *N1/2W<<SP= 14  4  << 6  9 <<=BDUPL. *BP%P*= 7 <: ]. <<] S/WDual IS [ 11 ] * ]CKCNT. *

VF140817 CF81002F * KEYNs DBL CHK [ LRWD=  4  9  2  13  6   +I/CCL= 11  13  14  3  1 =QRBKRS/&F4]. * TOP PACE  11 SHILLELAGH W%  ]. [  12 ABBEY MARIE W% ].  ESP DUPLS [  ]. *

VF140817 CF81002F * VALU% SELECT [   4 BRAVE SMAS 5y  275% $9 Ds 15 ].  10 SINGLE GAZ 5y -29% $31 Ds 93 ].  11 SHILLELAGH 6y  74% $7.5 Ds 96 ].  13 JESTER HAL 5y  698% $67 Ds 14 ].  14 MIGHTY BOS 3y -2% $13 Ds 117 ].   ]. IN % ORDER[  * VALUNOS [  10  13  ]* ]*. @10:53:17 02-09-2018.
  Unfortunately it is based on just the last three runs in the TAB supplied form, as my ability to use the full past runs data supplied by the Tab  is a non-goer.  Cheers this study should show one just how hard it is to select  a winning  First Four.  Cheers

« Last Edit: 2018-Feb-10, 05:16 PM by pegasyber »

Offline pegasyber

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« 2018-Feb-10, 06:58 AM Reply #603 »
 As scratchings take place and prices change a re-run also has the computer attempting to filter and focus on trying to assemble a bet. Not much progress on this front:
Quote
RESULT [                ]]  # 4 *!MUST KEEP!*d # 9 *!MUST KEEP!*d # 13 *!MUST KEEP!*d # 6 *!MUST KEEP!*d # 7 *!MUST KEEP!*d SPCL TR/JK/COMBOS [  2   3   4   5   7   8   11  12  14  ] DBL CHK *HI$E=[ # 1 ] HARTNELL W]. *SCNDHI$E=[ # 3 ] TOSEN STAR}.  <<GW1+ [  [ 14 4 10 3 ]*] LRWDV= [ 4  9  13  6  7  ] I/CCLE= [  11  13  14  3  1  DUPGWPAC=[  5  8  9  12  ].* MKUP [  0   @ $ 0 ]** * INSURANCE VAL[  13 0 FXD= $61.  10 FXD= $26.] BET NOW! * VALUNOS [  10  13  ]* * T5TTLMVS[  12 8 6 9 3 EL1 A S/A. DBLCHK TJC]. *LR7DS=[  ] *CRUSHD=[  7  6  9  8  3  ]]. * SPLRESIDS [ ** [  3  6  7  8  9  12  ] ** CONSIDER NSW/VIC TAB F4S + *SUPASPL [ 0 ]. *BMVRDPL= 6  9 ***  RUN END NORMALLY  ***. CALC TIME=  5 Secs.   

Quote
* HORSE NOS [  13  -%  10 ] OF VALUE% HI-LOW). !SELN $20 # 13 NOW! @$61
 * BOX7F4 KSN[ <: 1 <:]  11  4  13  14  3  6   ]BASF4 DPLGWP[ 5  8  9  12 ]*LRWD= 4  9  13  6  7  ]
 * DUBL ROV BNKR [ ___ ___  ]  X  [   -%  10  0 ] N1TOP=  13 $61 626%. T4FVS[  3 1 11 4 ]
 * TRPL ROV BNKR [ ___ ___  0___ [  X  ]   -%  10 ] *I/CCL= 11  13  14  3  1  ]*MOVE RvBnk <<
 T3VIC$  11  13 3  14  3     13  -%  10*. KEEP TRIPLS.. *$V%RUF*[  13  @ $61/1 626% ]*  * SPLRESIDS** [  3  6  7  8  9  12 ]* USE ALL!.  * T5TTLMVS[  12 8 6 9 3 EL1 A S/A. DBLCHK TJC]. *LR7DS=[  ] *CRUSHD=[  7  6  9  8  3  ]

   Although it has centred on a very rough chance in No 13, this may not be accepted but it should be a consideration in the First Four at least.
« Last Edit: 2018-Feb-10, 07:09 AM by pegasyber »

Offline pegasyber

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« 2018-Feb-10, 10:10 AM Reply #604 »
* DUBL ROV BNKR [    11    4    ]  X  [     13   1   3   14 10  ] N1TOP=  13 $61 626%. T4FVS[  3 1 11 4 ]
* TRPL ROV BNKR [ 1   11   3    [  X  ]  4  13  14   10   ] *I/CCL= 11  13  14  3  1  ]*MOVE RvBnk <<

  I  agonise about leaving out the likely improvers:
Quote
* SPLRESIDS** [  3 6  7  8  9  12 ]* USE ALL!.  * T5TTLMVS[ 12 8 6 9 3 EL1 A S/A. DBLCHK TJC]. *]

  So perhaps  a
Quote
* TRPL ROV BNKR [   3  11   4   ]  X  [   6  7  8  9  12  1  ] 
     
 
   How about a couple of others have a go?.

  There again the pools are so por as I think I will just sit and watch. 
« Last Edit: 2018-Feb-10, 11:02 AM by pegasyber »

Offline nemisis

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« 2018-Feb-10, 10:15 AM Reply #605 »
It does look a very tricky WFA race but as  P Mair can testify as soon as you state such, the favs will usually fight it out.

I do have plenty of racing rules and in even looking WFA races I look at the 3 yr olds.
Is Mighty Boss good enough?....well he is pretty good.

While Hartnell is the highest rated horse and leaving them out is usually foolhardy Kerrin McEvoy who rode him in the trial goes on Mr Sneaky.

I do remember after a lacklustre run last spring McEvoy suggested Hartnell was feeling the firm tracks.
Might firm right up today.

I'm going to box  3,6,7,11,14 for 25%.

Online fours

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« 2018-Feb-10, 11:24 AM Reply #606 »
hMMMM,

Fav has won most years lately.

Fours
ps pegasyber threw out the 13 ( some people never learn.... ) so its a moral to run 4th - that leaves you guys to look after 2nd and 3rd only.
« Last Edit: 2018-Feb-10, 11:27 AM by fours »

Offline pegasyber

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« 2018-Feb-17, 02:30 PM Reply #607 »
...
« Last Edit: 2018-Feb-17, 03:00 PM by pegasyber »


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