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First 4 Methods - Betting, Tips & Ratings - Racehorse TALK

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Offline pegasyber

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« 2018-Feb-06, 06:34 PM Reply #600 »
  Thanks Spudda028 my ability to post these days is quite restricted but will try to get up , main special events some times.
  From my F4 winnings I bought for the kids a number of "Nutribullet" @ 600w, 900w and I see there is a 1000w   Nutribullet now available.  The 900w unit is quite moisy but certainly turns all fruits, nuts , seeds and veges into a very smooth drink and/or soup. All the families continue to use regularly,  The Nutribullet units  are now  available at most electrical stores these days, and it is probably worthwhile getting the 1000w unit.

   From the winnings I have also bought a number of the   FlavorStone Infusion Grill Fry Pans and find them extremely  useful for preparing quick meals, especially when you have forgotten to plan meals  ahead of time. The grandkids say they use the small pan every night. 

Offline nemisis

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« 2018-Feb-06, 09:01 PM Reply #601 »
Pegasyber, I enjoy your contributions here.

I generally bet in Victoria and these days mainly on Saturdays and don't do a lot of first fours.

 If you want to do the CF Orr Stakes on Sat.....I would be interested.
Some newcomers to WFA, a couple of promising 3yr olds and some regulars make for an interesting race.

Heard Darren Weir's assistant trainer this morning spruiking Tosen Stardom.

Offline pegasyber

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« 2018-Feb-09, 11:22 AM Reply #602 »
  Last year in the C F Orr Stakes the top two favourites came first and second.

  This study for Caulfield Race 8 on  Saturday 10/02/2018 should be looked at more as an integrity measure, after the event, but one can pick out a winner depending on their own leanings beliefs or bias.
Quote
VF140817 CF81002F * RACE NAME ID* [ CF81002F  2018. C.F. ORR STAKES,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 1400 mtrs]. COMPRUN 02-09-2018. AT 10:48:38 RESULT  [   1  10  4   8    ~   5   12  ] F4 $13,682. UBET

VF140817 CF81002F * LOW LRAC WDIV [  4  9  2  13  6  ] [  4 BRAVE SMAS.  ---  ].[ 9 DOLLAR FOR.  ---  ].[ 2 BLACK HEAR.  ---  ].[ 13 JESTER HAL.  ---  ].[ 6 TSHAHITSI .  ---  ].[ ] F4 &

VF140817 CF81002F *  TOP4 F4 FAVS [ FIRST FV=  3   ]. SECND FV=   1    ]. THIRD FV=  11   ]. FOURTH FV=   7    ]

  Compare the above two lines  after the event.

VF140817 CF81002F * WMSPD ORD TNO [     4     11     13     14      3      1     10      7      2      6      8      9      5     12     ]  * ] BMVRS/W [  11 SHILLELAGH W  6yo <. Dtl= 96 ] 13 JESTER HALO   5yo < --- . Dtl= 14 ] 14 MIGHTY BOSS   3yo <. Dtl= 117 ] 3 TOSEN STARDO  7yo <. Dtl= 89 ] ]*SPL*

VF140817 CF81002F * WMSPD RTG ORD [  986   968   954  947   931   930   930   922   920   919   918   912   910   905   ] IMPORTANT
VF140817 CF81002F * RQOD WMSPD RO [  2.4   4.3   8.4   13.2   40.4   43.5   43.5   67.9   75.1   79.3   83.9   113.6   113.6   170.9   ] IN WMSPD ORDER. $PRICE/1 CALCULATED RQD ODDS ON WT MODIFIED SPEED RATINGS *

VF140817 CF81002F * GW$CLASS$ ORD [   14    4    10    3    1    2    12    5    11    8    7    9    6    13   ].  12 ABBEY  110d -1000m  5.5k  5y]  [ 5 LORD O 21d  400m -.5k  7y]  [ 10 SINGLE 93d -1800m  4k  5y]  [ 2 BLACK  62d -400m  0k  ---  7y.

VF140817 CF81002F * SIMUL PACE ALL[   11   12   13   14    3    6    9    7    8    4    5    2   10    1   ] *BPT4 [  12 ABBEY  x12 ] *BMVRP [ 9 DOLLAR x5 [  6 TSHAHI x4 ] REL/SPWM. ESP F  1000-1200 USEFUL IN DIST/SOFT(6&UP/DEAD/SLOW/SAND esp. A TOP4 Ln*

VF140817 CF81002F * KEY SPEED NOS [   11  +I/C. +TJ!.  1 <:] =*NK*.  4  +!.  +GW!. +TJ!. 13  +!. +I/C. 14  +I/C. +GW!. +TJ!. .]>1.  3  +I/C. +GW!. +TJ!. 6  +!. 7   +TJ!. 8   +TJ!. 10   +GW!. 12   +TJ!] +!. =LRWD ]. *HiWM>GW$C [ < 12?kg. +TJ!.  +5.5?k<. < 5 +TJ!. < ]. *N1/2W<<SP= 14  4  << 6  9 <<=BDUPL. *BP%P*= 7 <: ]. <<] S/WDual IS [ 11 ] * ]CKCNT. *

VF140817 CF81002F * KEYNs DBL CHK [ LRWD=  4  9  2  13  6   +I/CCL= 11  13  14  3  1 =QRBKRS/&F4]. * TOP PACE  11 SHILLELAGH W%  ]. [  12 ABBEY MARIE W% ].  ESP DUPLS [  ]. *

VF140817 CF81002F * VALU% SELECT [   4 BRAVE SMAS 5y  275% $9 Ds 15 ].  10 SINGLE GAZ 5y -29% $31 Ds 93 ].  11 SHILLELAGH 6y  74% $7.5 Ds 96 ].  13 JESTER HAL 5y  698% $67 Ds 14 ].  14 MIGHTY BOS 3y -2% $13 Ds 117 ].   ]. IN % ORDER[  * VALUNOS [  10  13  ]* ]*. @10:53:17 02-09-2018.
  Unfortunately it is based on just the last three runs in the TAB supplied form, as my ability to use the full past runs data supplied by the Tab  is a non-goer.  Cheers this study should show one just how hard it is to select  a winning  First Four.  Cheers

« Last Edit: 2018-Feb-10, 05:16 PM by pegasyber »

Offline pegasyber

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« 2018-Feb-10, 06:58 AM Reply #603 »
 As scratchings take place and prices change a re-run also has the computer attempting to filter and focus on trying to assemble a bet. Not much progress on this front:
Quote
RESULT [                ]]  # 4 *!MUST KEEP!*d # 9 *!MUST KEEP!*d # 13 *!MUST KEEP!*d # 6 *!MUST KEEP!*d # 7 *!MUST KEEP!*d SPCL TR/JK/COMBOS [  2   3   4   5   7   8   11  12  14  ] DBL CHK *HI$E=[ # 1 ] HARTNELL W]. *SCNDHI$E=[ # 3 ] TOSEN STAR}.  <<GW1+ [  [ 14 4 10 3 ]*] LRWDV= [ 4  9  13  6  7  ] I/CCLE= [  11  13  14  3  1  DUPGWPAC=[  5  8  9  12  ].* MKUP [  0   @ $ 0 ]** * INSURANCE VAL[  13 0 FXD= $61.  10 FXD= $26.] BET NOW! * VALUNOS [  10  13  ]* * T5TTLMVS[  12 8 6 9 3 EL1 A S/A. DBLCHK TJC]. *LR7DS=[  ] *CRUSHD=[  7  6  9  8  3  ]]. * SPLRESIDS [ ** [  3  6  7  8  9  12  ] ** CONSIDER NSW/VIC TAB F4S + *SUPASPL [ 0 ]. *BMVRDPL= 6  9 ***  RUN END NORMALLY  ***. CALC TIME=  5 Secs.   

Quote
* HORSE NOS [  13  -%  10 ] OF VALUE% HI-LOW). !SELN $20 # 13 NOW! @$61
 * BOX7F4 KSN[ <: 1 <:]  11  4  13  14  3  6   ]BASF4 DPLGWP[ 5  8  9  12 ]*LRWD= 4  9  13  6  7  ]
 * DUBL ROV BNKR [ ___ ___  ]  X  [   -%  10  0 ] N1TOP=  13 $61 626%. T4FVS[  3 1 11 4 ]
 * TRPL ROV BNKR [ ___ ___  0___ [  X  ]   -%  10 ] *I/CCL= 11  13  14  3  1  ]*MOVE RvBnk <<
 T3VIC$  11  13 3  14  3     13  -%  10*. KEEP TRIPLS.. *$V%RUF*[  13  @ $61/1 626% ]*  * SPLRESIDS** [  3  6  7  8  9  12 ]* USE ALL!.  * T5TTLMVS[  12 8 6 9 3 EL1 A S/A. DBLCHK TJC]. *LR7DS=[  ] *CRUSHD=[  7  6  9  8  3  ]

   Although it has centred on a very rough chance in No 13, this may not be accepted but it should be a consideration in the First Four at least.
« Last Edit: 2018-Feb-10, 07:09 AM by pegasyber »

Offline pegasyber

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« 2018-Feb-10, 10:10 AM Reply #604 »
* DUBL ROV BNKR [    11    4    ]  X  [     13   1   3   14 10  ] N1TOP=  13 $61 626%. T4FVS[  3 1 11 4 ]
* TRPL ROV BNKR [ 1   11   3    [  X  ]  4  13  14   10   ] *I/CCL= 11  13  14  3  1  ]*MOVE RvBnk <<

  I  agonise about leaving out the likely improvers:
Quote
* SPLRESIDS** [  3 6  7  8  9  12 ]* USE ALL!.  * T5TTLMVS[ 12 8 6 9 3 EL1 A S/A. DBLCHK TJC]. *]

  So perhaps  a
Quote
* TRPL ROV BNKR [   3  11   4   ]  X  [   6  7  8  9  12  1  ] 
     
 
   How about a couple of others have a go?.

  There again the pools are so por as I think I will just sit and watch. 
« Last Edit: 2018-Feb-10, 11:02 AM by pegasyber »

Offline nemisis

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« 2018-Feb-10, 10:15 AM Reply #605 »
It does look a very tricky WFA race but as  P Mair can testify as soon as you state such, the favs will usually fight it out.

I do have plenty of racing rules and in even looking WFA races I look at the 3 yr olds.
Is Mighty Boss good enough?....well he is pretty good.

While Hartnell is the highest rated horse and leaving them out is usually foolhardy Kerrin McEvoy who rode him in the trial goes on Mr Sneaky.

I do remember after a lacklustre run last spring McEvoy suggested Hartnell was feeling the firm tracks.
Might firm right up today.

I'm going to box  3,6,7,11,14 for 25%.

Offline fours

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« 2018-Feb-10, 11:24 AM Reply #606 »
hMMMM,

Fav has won most years lately.

Fours
ps pegasyber threw out the 13 ( some people never learn.... ) so its a moral to run 4th - that leaves you guys to look after 2nd and 3rd only.
« Last Edit: 2018-Feb-10, 11:27 AM by fours »

Offline pegasyber

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« 2018-Feb-17, 02:30 PM Reply #607 »
  I did at last get the Race Analysis program working by making the changes required in simple steps. and put the results up here on this thread, but realised it was not fully correct, because it was looking at it's  3 oldest runs instead of it three most recent runs, which was the intention.  So that had to be edited out and a new run done.
 
  The result was not that good, on one Test race attempt only, but one needs many more runs to see if using the ten runs  data is better than just the three most recent runs data.  What it appears to do is increase the number of horses that have results in Speed or Weight Modiied Speed Ratings within 3.0 lengths of the Top Rated horse.   Time will tell.   

  The test race was Flemington Race 9 over  1400 mtrs at Flemington 17/02/2018, and the results may still be misleading.
« Last Edit: 2018-Feb-21, 08:38 AM by pegasyber »

Offline pegasyber

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« 2018-Mar-03, 11:05 AM Reply #608 »
VF140817 FL70303F * RACE NAME ID* [ FL70303F  2018. AUSTRALIAN GUINEAS,,,,,,,,,,,, 1600 mtrs]. COMPRUN 03-03-2018. AT 10:15:04 RESULT  [    11  13   16    6  ~               ]   

VF140817 FL70303F * LOW LRAC WDIV [  10  6  15  8  1  14  ] [  10 SALSAMOR W.  ---  ].[ 6 VILLERMONT.  ---  ].[ 15 ALOISIA W%.  ---  ].[ 8 ADDICTIVE .  ---  ].[ 1 MIGHTY BOS. a *LR7DS* ].[ 14  MR SO AND . a *LR7DS* ].[ ] F4 & 5LOW WDIV E/W BET *

VF140817 FL70303F * WMSPD ORD TNO [     2      5      3     16     15      7     11      1     13      8      4     10      9      6     14     12     ]  * ] BMVRS/W [  16 BRING ME ROS  3yo <. Dtl= 14 ] ]*SPL*
VF140817 FL70303F * WMSPD RTG ORD [  1004   990   964   959   947   944   944   940   934   930   926   898   887   885   883   882   ] IMPORTANT
VF140817 FL70303F * RQOD WMSPD RO [  4.2   4.9   10   12.1   19.2   21.5   21.5   25   34.9   41.1   48.6   149.1   187.4   211.1   241.5   260.9   ] IN WMSPD ORDER. $PRICE/1 CALCULATED RQD  ODDS ON WT MODIFIED SPEED RATINGS *

VF140817 FL70303F * GW$CLASS$ ORD [   1    16    15    3    10    2    12    5    6    7    8    14    9    4    11    13   ].  12 BLACK  21d  200m  .5k  3y]  [ 1 MIGHTY 7d  200m  1k a *LR7DS* 3y]  [ 10  SALSAM 17d  200m  2k  ---  3y]  [ 6 VILLER 21d  200m -1.5k  ---  3y.

VF140817 FL70303F * L600 FSPD T10 [    3    8    9   17   18   16    2   10   11    5    7   15   14    4   12   13    6    1   ]* BFT2[  9 HOLY S Rk x10 Ln x0. ] *BMVRF[  8 ADDICT Rk x8  Ln X0. ] [ 10 SALSAM Rk x4  Ln x-.8. ] n [ 3 EMBELLISH  Rx2  Ln x0. ] ESP. for VERY HEAVY!.

VF140817 FL70303F * SIMUL PACE ALL[    2   11    5    7    8   16    3   13   15   10    1   14    9    4   12    6   17   18   ] *BPT4 [  8 ADDICT x5 ] *BMVRP [ 11 GRUNT  x5 [  7 MAIN S x2 ] REL/SPWM. ESP F  1000-1200 USEFUL IN DIST/SOFT(6&UP/DEAD/SLOW/SAND esp. A TOP4 Ln*

VF140817 FL70303F * TOPS SPD SMLP [ SPD  2 ] WMSPD  2 ] GWC$  1 ] L600FSP  3 ]  PACE  2 ] *WM/SP [  16 BRING ME ROS  3yo <. Dtl= 14 ] ]  * WIN BET

VF140817 FL70303F *  TOP4 F4 FAVS [ FIRST FV=   2     ]. SECND FV=    11    ]. THIRD FV=   15     ]. FOURTH FV=   16      ].USE IN

VF140817 FL70303F * KEY SPEED NOS [   2    +TJ!. 3   +I/C. +GW!.  1 <:] =*NK*.  5   +I/C. +TJ!. 11    +TJ!. .]>1.  7   +I/C. 8   +!.  9    +TJ!. 16   +I/C. +GW!] +!. =LRWD ]. *HiWM>GW$C [ < 12 3y <. <  1 +TJ!.  +GW!.  +!.  3y< ]. *N1/2W<<SP= 1  16  << 8  <<=BDUPL. *BP%P*= 11 <: ]. <<] S/WDual IS [ 3-1kg. ] * CKCNT.

VF140817 FL70303F * VALU% SELECT [   2 CLIFF'S ED 3y  14% $4.8 Ds 14 ].  3 EMBELLISH  3y  160% $26 Ds 14 ].  5 MURAAQEB W 3y  329% $21 Ds 14 ].  16 BRING ME R 3y  32% $16 Ds 14 ].   ]. IN % ORDER[  *
       
     FIRST FOUR    [  2  5  1    RVB ]  X  [    3   11    7   8  15  16  10     ]

  And then with No  14  being a LR7Days horse and a VST very strong finisher at its last run over a longer distance than todays event, one has to find a slot for him.
 NOT SURE I WOULD BET in THIS race, JUST USING IT AS A CHECK ON A much  ALTERED PROGRAM.     TO SEE IF ANY GLARING ERRORS OR OMISSIONS show up.    MIGHT JUST QUINELLA  2  AND 5.   CHEERS
« Last Edit: 2018-Mar-03, 03:40 PM by pegasyber »

Offline fours

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« 2018-Mar-03, 11:11 AM Reply #609 »
Hmmmm,

The 15 to be more seriously 'tested' today by the rider.

Fours

Offline pegasyber

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« 2018-Apr-13, 06:38 PM Reply #610 »
Quote
VF140817 RW61404F * RACE NAME ID* [ RW61404F  2018. AUSTRALIAN OAKS GROUP 1 GOOD ( 4 ) ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 2400 mtrs]. COMPRUN 04-13-2018. AT 18:18:32 RESULT  [                 ]

VF140817 RW61404F * LOW LRAC WDIV [  13  4  12  3  1  5  ] [  13 WILD SEA W.  ---  ].[ 4 SAVVY COUP.  ---  ].[ 12 NAIVASHA W.  ---  ].[ 3 UNFORGOTTE.  ---  ].[ 1 ALOISIA W%.  ---  ].[ 5 LUVALUVA W. a *LR7DS* ].[ ] F4 & 5LOW WDIV E/W BET *

VF140817 RW61404F * LOW5 LRAC SP$  [  13 WILD SEA W.  ---  ].[ 4 SAVVY COUP.  ---  ].[ 12 NAIVASHA W.  ---  ].[ 3 UNFORGOTTE.  ---  ].[ 1 ALOISIA W%.  ---  ].[ 5 LUVALUVA W. a *LR7DS* ].[]. HORSE NAMES
VF140817 RW61404F * DTL DD WC TKDS[ 29ds  200  3kg AV15  ].[ 28ds  0 -.5kg EL21  ].[ 17ds  300  0kg AV17  ].[ 14ds  400  0kg RH15  ].[ 14ds  400  0kg FL14  ].[ 7ds  400 -4kg KG16  ].[  CHECK FULLY.
VF140817 RW61404F * ACTION INDICN [  [ #13 EL1 >1.5 *!MUS]. [ #4 ?dsBAD?  . . ]. [ #12  *!MUST KEEP!*]. [ #3  *!MUST KEEP!*b]. [ #1  *!MUST KEEP!*b]. [ #5  *!MUST KEEP!*b]. ] * DROP THE WORST *

VF140817 RW61404F * WMSPD ORD TNO [     7      5      4     10      1      8      6      3      2      9     12     11     13     ]  * ] BMVRS/W [  ]*SPL*
VF140817 RW61404F * WMSPD RTG ORD [  986   982   980   959   937   927   920   898   870   863   819   804   747   ] IMPORTANT
VF140817 RW61404F * RQOD WMSPD RO [  7.4   7.4   7.4   8.5   11.3   13   14.2   20   34.2   38.8   111.8   151   419.2   ] IN WMSPD ORDER. $PRICE/1 CALCULATED RQD ODDS ON WT MODIFIED SPEED RATINGS

VF140817 RW61404F * GW$CLASS$ ORD [   6    2    1    8    5    3    4    11    7    10    9    12    13   ].  2 HIYAAM 14d  400m  0k  3y]  [ 6 BRING  14d  400m  0k  3y]  [ 11 MISS A 14d  400m  0k  3y]  [ 1 ALOISI 14d  400m  0k  ---  3y.

VF140817 RW61404F *  TOP4 F4 FAVS [ FIRST FV=   3   ]. SECND FV=   2   ]. THIRD FV=   5   ]. FOURTH FV=   1   ].

VF140817 RW61404F * KEY SPEED NOS [   4   +!. +I/C. 5  * +!. +I/C. +GW!. +TJ!. 7  ?  9  * +!.   1 <:] =*NK*. .]>1.  10  * +!. +I/C. +TJ!] +!. =LRWD ]. *HiWM>GW$C [ < 2 +TJ!.  +GW!.  3y <. < 6 +GW!.  3y< ]. *N1/2W<<SP= 6  2  << 9  2 <<=BDUPL. *BP%P*= 2 <: ]. <<]

VF140817 RW61404F * VALU% SELECT [   4 SAVVY COUP 3y -19% $6 Ds 28 ].  5 LUVALUVA W 3y -26% $5.5 Ds 7 ].  6 BRING ME R 3y  48% $21 Ds 14 ].  7 CONTESSA V 3y  143% $18 Ds 28 ].  8 DANZDANZDA 3y  15% $15 Ds 14 ].  9 CHILLY CHA 3y -20% $31 Ds 7 ].  10 SHE'S A TR 3y  265% $31 Ds 7 ].  12 NAIVASHA W 3y -28% $81 Ds 17 ].   ]. IN % ORDER[  * VALUNOS [  8  10  ]* ]*. @18:24:46 04-13-2018

Raced in last 7 days  [  5  EL1,  9 VST,  10 VST  ]

 Minimum Box F4 [   4   5   7 ?   9    1   10    2  ] Top seven in Key Speed Nos Line. If scratching, # 6 is next?.

  Perceived wisdom in Scientific Racegoing was that in any race longer than 1450 metres,  a horse would need to have run  well in the last 21 days or if  it had run in the last 25 days it would need to have won that event easily.  Any number of days greater than 25 and the horses would be better dropped from consideration as a likely winner. This now seems to be well outdated, due to a number of factors and in this event today  horses # 4 an EL1, # 7  LS2 and  # 13 an EL1,  had their last race run in the last 28 days or greater.   

  Against this the top 4  horses  [ #  7  # 4  # 5  and  # 10 ], in the WMSPD,  Weight Modified Speed Line are within 3.0 lengths of the top rated horse # 7, and thereby capable of winning?.

    So do we  change the bet type  to  [  # 1  #  2   RVBnkr  ]  X   [   # 5   # 9   # 10   # 6 ] ,  IE  1 and 2 must place and two from [ 5  9  10  6  ] must also place;  or just let this race go.

  Then Factors System comes up with:
Quote
SF080418 RW61404W * SPCL SLODS ON [  8  DANZDANZDA 14ds. $1.3. << BLOW << $18. TRK=GOOD  ] DBLCHK RUFF4$ WIN

SF080418 RW61404W * BIG$ VALU$SPL [  13 ] WILD SEA[79] W% 50 50 FACTOR RANK=  5. @ $ 71 * CHECK SM<ML<AUSX +  SPEED ++ MOVES
 
SF080418 RW61404W * TOP8 FACTORS. [  3 {  3 by  1.7 Lnths. VAR'N 1.  AND IS  BETVALU }. 1  5  4  13  6  2  12  9  ] *TOP6* Best. [ + *SpicyCrshd* [    ] [    ] ] CHK WTs.NO 3  0kg. AND  NO 1  0kg.  NEGS?. ?

  This latter line suggests  [   3   1   5   4   ]  with # 3 Unforgotten beating  # 1 Aloisia  by 1.7 lengths. 

  It is all too hard?.
« Last Edit: 2018-Apr-14, 10:07 AM by pegasyber »

Offline pegasyber

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« 2018-Apr-14, 02:44 PM Reply #611 »
 
Quote
VF140817 RW61404F * RACE NAME ID* [ RW61404F  2018. AUSTRALIAN OAKS GROUP 1 GOOD ( 4 ) ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 2400 mtrs]. COMPRUN 04-13-2018. AT 18:18:32 RESULT  [   3   2   11   6    ~    4    8   ] F4 pays $8469.40

 Well glad I did not bet as # 3 went missing in the Speed category, but a special in Stats Factors;  with the Trifecta and First Four, not even a remote  chance.
  Perhaps the computer was getting around to a more precise selection, but not even confident of that.?

« Last Edit: 2018-Apr-19, 06:27 AM by pegasyber »


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