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Keeping track of Roughies. - Betting, Tips & Ratings - Racehorse TALK

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Offline Mantaray

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O.P. « 2009-Jan-29, 10:54 AM »
A thankless task, but I will keep a note of the following roughies.

A)First-Starters at $20+ in Metro races saturdays + Public Hols
B) First Starters at $20+ in all others

C) The system referred to by Wenona from Punter57. As the original poster made it clear tweaking was allowed I have done so. The tweaks are as follow.

Metro Races Only (Saturdays/Public Hols)
1)The close-up at big odds (to eliminate) must be last 2 starts, and not before a spell
2) If the horse is First Up/2nd Up at a very much shorter distance than it has won at before, the qualifying runs (the form figures referred to) start from after the spell
3) Very bad "beaten lengths" will not count if before a spell.
4) The price thresh-hold is $25 for all races, as Betfair has many more "over $20" than the totes.
5) The "down two classes " will apply to Group, Listed, Quality, Open/Welter races. Example; down from G2 to Listed. Down from G3 to Quality.Down from Listed to Open. Any confusion, then "down by two" will mean prizemoney reduced by 33% or more, from the lower of the most recent two races. This avoids the usual confusion about classes.  Example a class 6 in City at $50,000 may be tougher than an Open in country at $25000 etc, so instead of assessing every race by contestants, the prizemoney will be the guide..
6) A Close Finish is < 1 Length

I will be betting these ones (C) at $5 per horse. The first-Starters is a watching exercise.

If you have any constructive criticisms then I'll be happy to read them. If it's only to say "it won't work" then why not wait ,and see if it won't work, for a month or two?

Starts today
« Last Edit: 2009-Feb-25, 07:51 AM by Mantaray »

Offline Big Wheel

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« 2009-Jan-29, 11:14 AM Reply #1 »
 Good luck with it mate    emthup

Offline gratlog

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« 2009-Jan-29, 11:52 AM Reply #2 »
Good luck and the main thing is have some fun with it.

Offline OldLarsy

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« 2009-Jan-29, 02:37 PM Reply #3 »
$119 winner at narogin first up from spell   :biggrin:

Offline Mantaray

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« 2009-Jan-30, 11:16 AM Reply #4 »
29/01/09
A) 0 bets
B) 6 Bets 0 Wins
C) 6 Bets 0 Wins

Offline Mantaray

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« 2009-Jan-31, 07:15 PM Reply #5 »
30/01/2009                        Progress (2 Days)

A)0 Bets                              A) 0 Bets
B)11 Bets 0 wins                 B) 17  Bets   0 wins
C) 0 Bets                             C) 6 Bets

31/01/2009                          Progress 3 Days
A)4 Bets 0 Wins                     A)4 Bets        0 return
B) 24 Bets 1 Win $22BF         B) 41 Bets  22 return
C)25 Bets  1 Win $75BF         C) 31 Bets  75 Return

 01/02/2009                            4 Days
A) No Bets                               A) 4 bets 0 return                             
B) 16 Bets                                B)57 Bets 22 Return
C) No Bets                               C)31 Bets 75 return

  02/02/09                                  5 Days
A)No Bets                                 A)4 Bets 0 Return
B) 9 Bets  1Win $35 BF              B) 66 Bets 57 Return
C) No Bets                                 C) 31 Bets 75 Return

   03/02/09                                     6 days
 A)No Bets                                  A) 4 Bets 0 Return
 B) 7 Bets 0 Wns                         B) 73 Bets 57 Return
 C) No Bets                                  C) 31 Bets  75 Return

    04/02/09                                        7 Days
  A) no bets                                    A) 4 bets 0 return
  B) 19 Bets 0 wins                         B) 92 Bets 57 Return
  C) No Bets                                    C) 31 Bets 75 Return
 
     05/02/09                                          8 Days
   A) 0 Bets                                       A)4 Bets  0Return
   B)12 Bets 0 return                        B) 104Bets 57Return
   C) 0 Bets                                        C 31 Bets  75Return

      06/02/09                                           9 Days
    A)0 Bets                                         A)4 Bets 0Return
    B) 13Bets 1Win $28                       B) 117 85Return
    C) 0 Bets                                         C) 31Bets 75Returns

      07/02/09                                           10Days
    A)1 Bet O Wins                                 A)5 Bets 0 Return
    B) 8Bets 0 Wins                                B125 Bets 85 Return
     C) 24 Bets 1 Wins $36                      C)55 Bets  111 Return

       08/02/09                                             11Days
     A)0Bets                                              A)5 Bets 0 Return
     B)16 Bets 1Win $36                            B)141  121 Return
     C) 11 Bets 0 Win ( MR Transferred)    C) 66 Bets 111 Return 

     I included today's Caulfield as it should've been a Saturday Metro. I was betting. So far it's looking like the following.

     
« Last Edit: 2009-Feb-16, 06:00 PM by Mantaray »

Offline Mantaray

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« 2009-Feb-08, 10:08 PM Reply #6 »
Hi everyone.
As a bit of a newbie,  I haven't been updating this thread the best way. If you read the post above you'll have  the past 11 days. In future I'll use the "reply" option rather than "modify" so that the updates get somewhere up the top for your perusal. .

Offline Mantaray

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« 2009-Feb-10, 09:39 AM Reply #7 »
  09/02/09                        12 Days
 A) No Bets                        A) 5 Bets
 B)17 Bets No Win             B)158 Bets 121 Return
  C)No Bets                        C) 66Bets 111 Return

   10/02/09                         13 Days
  A) No Bets                         A)5 Bets
  B )5 Bets No Win               B) 163Bets 121Return
  C No Bets                           C) 66Bets 111Return
 
    11/02/09                           14 Days
    A) No Bets                         A)5 Bets
     B)14 Bets                          B) 177 Bets   121 Return
     C) No Bets                         C) 66Bets 111Return
   
     12/02/09                             15 Days
     A) No Bets                           A) 5 Bets
      B) 13 Bets                           B)  190 Bets 121Return
      C No Bets                            C) 66Bets 111Return
 
       13/02/09                               16Days
       A) No Bets                           A) 5 Bets
       B ) 4 Bets                             B)194 Bets 121Return
        C)No Bets                            C) 66Bets 111Return
« Last Edit: 2009-Feb-13, 07:13 PM by Mantaray »

Offline Mantaray

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« 2009-Feb-15, 01:41 PM Reply #8 »
   14/02/09                         Day17 (A+C 3 actual Racedays only)
 A) 3 Bets                           A)    8  Bets
  B) 5 Bets                           B)199 Bets 121Return
  C)22 Bets                          C)  88 Bets 111Return   

Offline Max Manewer

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« 2009-Feb-15, 02:31 PM Reply #9 »
Manta.....your not the the one that got  " Our  Steve ", so I'll give you a leg up here....Back those roughies on the wet, fields above average, and in races past the mile, and you're starting AT the advantage line.

Go the other way and try them in sprints, on firm ground and smallish fields, you're more chance of beating Usain Bolt in a 100m foot race ! Just facts and figures.

Offline Mantaray

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« 2009-Feb-15, 03:36 PM Reply #10 »
MAX MANEWER. I'll look into it. Can you post a little more, in the other thread about roughies...Thanks.

Meanwhile. turnaround in system B) today. I know all will be cheering!!

       15/02/09                                       18 Days
     B)24 Bets 2 Wins $40+ $55 (BF)        B) 223Bets 216 return
     
       16/02/09                                          19 Days
      B) 8 Bets                                            B)231 Bets 216 Return
      
      17/02/09                                             20Days
       B) 4 Bets                                            B) 235        216Return

        18/02/09                                             21Days
        B) 10 Bets                                          B) 245        216Return

         19/02/09                                             22Days
        B) 9 Bets                                              B) 254       216Return 

A little info.  I'm not bothering updating A+C  Sun-Fri anymore, since they are both Saturday/Public Holiday systems  will update Sats/PHs   only

With the BF prices, as I'm not betting A or B, I'm using a "possible price"; where some/most money was being matched. This is not "At the Top" but a few ticks below. For C) I'm using the price I actually get. The "most money" approach implies you probably could've matched more I would risk when betting new system trials..

Huge fluctuations are common at BF, so this looks fair for A+B.
« Last Edit: 2009-Feb-20, 10:47 AM by Mantaray »

Offline Mantaray

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« 2009-Feb-21, 05:20 PM Reply #11 »
            20/02/09                             23Days   
         B) 13 Bets                                B)267Bets 216Return

            21/02/09                                24Days
         A) 5 Bets                                  A) 13Bets (4 Racedays)
         B) 6Bets                                   B) 273Bets 216Return
         C)32 Bets 2 Wins $60+$65     C)120Bets 236Return (4 Days)                 
 
            22/02/09                                  25Days   
          B) 22 Bets                                B)295Bets 216Return

             23/02/09                                  26Days
          B) 5Bets                                    B) 300Bets 216Return

             24/02/09                                   27Days
           B) 6Bets                                    B) 306Bets 216Return 

Winners in C)   21/02 MR6, BR7


« Last Edit: 2009-Feb-25, 10:17 AM by Mantaray »

Offline Mantaray

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« 2009-Feb-28, 05:24 PM Reply #12 »
       25/02/09                                                     28Days
      B)7 Bets                                                       B) 313Bets 216 Return
     
       26/02/09                                                      29 Days
       B) 4 Bets                                                      B) 317Bets  216 Return
       
        27/02/09                                                      30Days
         B)9Bets                                                         B) 326Bets  216Return
       
        28/02/09                                                      31Days
       A) 7 bets                                                       A) 20Bets No return
        B)23Bets 1Win $80BF                                   B) 349B    296 Return
        C)24Bets                                                      C) 144 Bets 236 Return

Offline Big Wheel

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« 2009-Feb-28, 05:31 PM Reply #13 »
  Manteray    :wtf:   is all that,  are you winning or arnt you
is what we want to know

Offline Authorized

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« 2009-Feb-28, 05:33 PM Reply #14 »
  :lol:

Offline Big Wheel

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« 2009-Feb-28, 05:39 PM Reply #15 »
  :lol:   :lol:   :lol:

Offline Stormy

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« 2009-Feb-28, 05:55 PM Reply #16 »
  :lol:   :lol:   :lol:   :lol: God ...... Struth ........bless your soul... :sweat:

Offline OldLarsy

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« 2009-Feb-28, 06:05 PM Reply #17 »
At least put in a more reader friendly format   :lol:   :lol:   :lol:

Offline Mantaray

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« 2009-Mar-01, 08:48 PM Reply #18 »
Big Wheel. Are you winding me up? System C),  the one I'm betting , is now 144 Out(was 120) for 236 Back. I'll leave it to you to decide if + 116 (now +92)  Units should be considered  as "winning".

 Hi everyone else.  I asked you to all make comments elsewhere, so we don't have to wade through loads of stuff to get to the guts of it. Especially as today is one which shows that patience really is a virtue. So..to refresh your memories.

There are three selection methods.

A) All First Start Horses at Metros on Saturday or Public Holidays (1 small filter)
B) All first starters NOT at Metros on Saturdays and Public Holidays (no filters)
C)The "System" as explained in the First Post 29th January (Complicated)

So today system B) has a $300 BF (could've easily been $500) winner.  See Best Tote Seymour Race 4 $113, to confirm.

     1/03/09                                                 32 Days
 A) No Bets                                  A) 20 Bets 0 Return  ( -20 = -100%)
 B) 22 Bets 1 winner $300           B)361 Bets 596 Return(+235 = + 65%)
 C) No Bets                                  C)144 Bets 236 Return(+92 = +64%)

OldLarsy.  Do you mean the posts, or the system, isn't user friendly? Most have told me that  "wallet-friendly" is the most important requirement! But I'm willing to listen to any suggestions..

Overall 525 Units out; 832 back. Only about 307 (-5% BF Comm) units up after a month.  If you are a $10 bettor then it's less than $700 per week, but still it's not too bad..  I will continue for a few more weeks. Bye

« Last Edit: 2009-Mar-02, 12:04 PM by Mantaray »

Offline Mantaray

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« 2009-Mar-02, 12:01 PM Reply #19 »
Well, you read about yesterday's boilover. First race of the day today Terang Race 1 First starter rockets home at $47.50 Best tote.. Easily got at  $90-$100 Betfair.  The fav at  <$2 (ie odds-on) was also a First Starter. Huhh??

Will update at day's end.


Offline Max Manewer

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« 2009-Mar-02, 12:19 PM Reply #20 »
Hard to fathom some of these instances, eh ? You would think it was bloody legless being laid at those odds in a 7-horse field, at first run.

Offline Mantaray

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« 2009-Mar-02, 04:02 PM Reply #21 »
What surprises me MAX, is that enough money is put on the fav to push it under evens, even though it's never had a race!! Who would risk big bucks on these types of animals..and why?

On Supertab ($1.60 the win) it means about $28,000 (of $45K) was on that untried..unproven #7, while only about $1200 found it's way onto the winner, an equally untried and unproven performer. #7 gets 4th in the seven-horse field. In NSW it was about $13,000 vs $370!!!

What did the favourite backers think they knew?? Got an idea?

Update.  2/2/09                                   33 Days
            B) 11Bets 1 Win $90         B)372 Bets 686 Return (-BF Comm)


Offline Max Manewer

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« 2009-Mar-02, 04:24 PM Reply #22 »
Manta, I have some figures on the first starters....

Metro lose about 20% on turnover $20 plus victab price
Country/prov lose close to 30% same deal, however that figure improves somewhat if the bookies have them substantially shorter than the tote.

Offline Mantaray

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« 2009-Mar-03, 02:10 PM Reply #23 »
MAX. Going on the VicTab LOT of 20% makes me think Best Totes would be profitable as longies often vary by much more than 20% on the other TABS . Some of the time VicTab would be the best price but the rest of the time you will overcome the 20% deficit.

As for BF, you would be CERTAIN to always get  +20%. 100-200%  is almost standard with them.

BTW. Craiglea Convict just arrived Rockhampton race 3 at 12-1 SP/$30.90 Vic/$36.50 NSW best TAB/$70 BF. Cheers.

Update.(No more FSs today)
        3/3/09                               34Days
    B) 12Bets                         B) 384Bets  756Return.

Out of interest I went back and added up all Best Totes: 9 wins = 375 Return
« Last Edit: 2009-Mar-03, 03:06 PM by Mantaray »

Offline Mantaray

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« 2009-Mar-05, 09:09 PM Reply #24 »
Quick update.
             4/03/09                           35Days
         B)20bets                            B)404Bets 736 Return

             5/ 03/09                           36Days
          B)9Bets 1 Win $100           B) 413 Bets 836Return

            6/03/09                              37Days
           B)13Bets                            B)426 Out  836Return

            7/03/09                                38Days
           A)7 Bets                             A) 27 Out  0 Return
           B)19 Bets                           B) 445Out 836 Return
           C) 38Bets                           C)182Out 236 Return

             8/03/09                                 39Days
             B) 9Bets                             B) 454 Out 836Return

             9/03/09 (Adelaide Cup)           40Days
            A) 9 Bets                              A)36Out 0Return
            B)1Bet                                  B) 455 Out 836 Return
            C) 14 Bets 1Win $85            C) 196Bets 321Return


B) At this point Best Tote Return = 441 Return.

Clarification; Today was a "Public Holiday" Raceday where S,M,B  put races on in conjunction with the Adelaide Cup. Thus it counts as a"metro" raceday. Systems A) and C) were activated along with the usual "everyday"  system B)
                                                 
« Last Edit: 2009-Mar-10, 03:04 PM by Mantaray »


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