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Lest We Forget - Betting, Tips & Ratings - Racehorse TALK

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Offline Wenona

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O.P. « 2008-Dec-20, 07:03 AM »
Good Morning All!!
                              As almost every system I've seen in this forum ends up selecting the fav (or near enough) and everyone is still persisting with them, then I'll assume that few have realised that these systems  are dead-ends (ie if they were winning methods long term, we would no longer be here and the bookies would've been blitzed!!). So here is something for those with a little courage who are prepared to think outside the square.This method has TWO variations. The first is for Saturday Metro and big race meetings on public holidays, as well as the occasional big Sunday meeting (ie the Hobart guineas on 29th Jan, or Canberra Cup  last year, if you can bear thinking about not joining me in celebrating the $315 win and $7700 exacta payout on S-Tab). The second variation is for all other days. Feel free to tweak it if you like. In either case NO RACES BELOW CLASS 3, nor jumps, nor 2yo races., So to variation ONE.
1) Take all horses which have not placed or won in their last three starts. Also, if a horse has ONE win or place in the previous three starts BUT the total of those three starts is 19 or more it is a selection as well. (A "0" is worth 10 and a spell has no bearing). ie 4456 or 4X56 is NO PLACE/WIN in past three.1018 = 19,  4928 =19, 5091 = 20 etc.   
2) Discard any horse from your selections if A) It has been beaten TWICE or THRICE by 10 lengths or more in the past three starts, B) It has finished within 2 length or less (or won!) at odds of 14-1 or more in the past three starts or, C) It is now down in class from it's previuous run.
3) Bet all selections if they get to $20 on the tote or SP.
  That's it. You will see that the two winners in Adelaide $24 and $69 were both selected by this method. You will soon discover that this method nails such winners almost every day and you will be surprised how few runners you will be betting, though there are about 20-25 per Saturday. The reason it works is as follows.
 Rule 1 is designed to get you looking at horses the others are ignoring. Places are extremely arbitrary (ie a horse could be 6th in a blanket finish or 2nd by 10 lengths, yet most mechanical systems will take much more notice of the "2nd" in the form) and anybody punting by following them will be forcing the prices of these "good-looking" form horse figures DOWN. Go to any TAB to see these punters/lemmings at work.
  Rule 2 is to decide if the horse in question is A) truly "hopeless" (we can forgive one bad run but not TWO) or B) Has already caused a boilover or nearly so, recently (beware of upsets that have ALREADY happened: that was the day we were supposed to have been there!) or C) The trainer has lost faith and is trying for "easier". Down in grade but still at 20s?? Hmmmmm.
   Rule 3. Self explanatery. We know the horse is not as bad as it "looks" but these odds indicate that we are in the small minority who have "the eye".
SECOND VARIATION: As before but any day and at 30s plus. Cheers.
PS This is not as complicated as it appears. Wait until two minutes before a race and then glance at the 20s + horses. You will immediately notice the form figures beside these animals and whether to look further (ie to the actual form). Then you will instantly see whether they have been close at odds or thrashed TWICE recently or are dropping in class. Expect 1 or 2 per race to qualify, sometimes 3 or 4. This will open up the way for Quins/Exactas/Tris etc. Good Luck.

Offline arakaan

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« 2008-Dec-20, 07:07 AM Reply #1 »
ah the memories.   :biggrin:

Offline triple7

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« 2008-Dec-20, 07:29 AM Reply #2 »
Reply
Recommend  Message 1 of 71 in Discussion 
From: Win On Track  (Original Message) Sent: 27/08/2003 3:21 PM

Conway's Thoroughbred Fitness Finder (p)(©) Patent Pending, All Rights Reserved.

Inventor Mr Jim Conway, Australia email brosway@bigpond.com

After a successful career as a greyhound trainer I got interested in horse racing.

In 1987 I asked myself several questions on why a horse runs fast, and why a horse runs slow.

Seventeen years later I have developed a world 1st class program, which tells Punters, Trainers, Owners, Bookmakers, Media how fit,your next bet really is.

We read the form guides today and we are told a horse is up in weights, we see that in the papers, then it's up in distance; we again can see that in the form guides.

We are told it has a better barrier, and again we check the papers, they tell us it has a change of ride, and once again we check the form guide, a new trainer this time, again check the form guide and so on.

Every known information is available except for one of the most quoted and important factor to why a horse runs faster and wins:

Fitness: Fitness: Fitness: Fitness: Fitness: Fitness: Fitness:

Quotes it’s "Fitter" today, or it should be "Fit today", or it is "Fit to Win" or Fitness should improve, yet we have no cross references to check that magical word ...FIT. Until Today!

I attended over 3,000 horse, harness and greyhound meetings rating nearly 1 million horses and dogs, plus saw tens upon thousands of live races on pay television ALWAYS learning more about fitness.

Once I established what to look for in a Fit horse and its factors over other horses,one major problem I had was developing a successful rating system that would combine blood counts, fitness levels and also represent a fitness advantage in lengths a fit horse would have over a fat horse.

Just the Fitness Percentages formula alone took me over 5 years to perfect.

Now using Conway's Thoroughbred Fitness Finder (p)(c) you, the public can see for yourself which horses are ready to perform to the best of their ability, and which horse won't. Spreadsheet your horses.

Bet to Win or Bet to Lay, either way you win because fit horses run faster than unfit Horses.

Below is the introduction of this invention and I guarantee that your betting and outlook on racing will be immediately changed for the better and you can say goodbye to losing streaks forever, because you will be betting in the winning Fitness Zone every race.

 

Conway’s Thoroughbred Fitness Finder (P) ®©

Inventor Mr. Jim Conway Contact 0429 415 595

World Wide Problem: "It’s Fit to Win"…. but loses. Why?

With 40 years experience as a trainer, owner and enthuses plus 20 years rating over one million horses on fitness, and researching the science in horse racing, this World First Thoroughbred Fitness Finder is your answer to making big money out of horse racing.

The world’s first ever service to accurately rate fit horses.

What is Conway’s Thoroughbred Fitness Finder?

This patented, copyright protected invention is a pocket size, laminated booklet with a series of numerically numbered photographs of horses at different stages of their (1) Nutrition Values,

rating of a horses blood count; and (2) their Fitness levels, with each photo rated in a world 1st tried and tested successful formula, that you can use anytime you see a horse.

Match a horses Nutrition Values (blood count) with its Fitness levels and add up your Fitness Percentage and you have before your eyes how fit your horse is, hopefully ready to perform to the best of its ability. Betting commodities and instructions included.

A horse rated 100% fit will beat a horse rated 94% fit. 1% = 1 length advantage.

The Punter: "Start Winning Today With The Best Advantage Ever"

What wins nearly all races? Answer: Superior Fitness.

You lose because you don’t know how fit a horse is before a race. Not any more.

You can now judge for yourself how fit your next bets really are. And it’s so simple!

Say goodbye to losing streaks and intense hours of form study. We have the right answers. Match up our high blood counts with our high fitness levels and you will WIN!

This unique invention simply has to find more winners because you are always on fit horses and "Fit Horses Run Faster Than Unfit Horses". It’s all to do with science. Details supplied.

This invention will tell you when to lay other horses, when to have a real go with your horse because it has a huge fitness advantage, and when to either not bet or bet wider commodities because many runners have similiar fitness. It makes you a smarter and richer punter.

The Trainer: We Guarantee to improve your strike rate, forever!

<DIR>

Not winning enough races for all your hours of hard work, 7 days a week?

Wondering where you are going wrong, and how to make them run faster? We know.

Conway’s Thoroughbred Fitness Finder guarantees to get you in the winner’s circle within weeks and keep you there till the day you retire.

Spreadsheet your horses fitness level, with unbelievable accuracy.

Consultancy available.

It’s a MUST have for any trainer who wants to Win a Maiden or a Melbourne Cup!

</DIR>

The Owner: Increase your horse’s commercial value.

Conway’s Thoroughbred Fitness Finder increases your sires or brood mares commercial value by winning more group races, making sure it is 100% fit and ready to win.

Secure the top jockeys for your horse by telling them how fit it really is.

 

For Direct Credit: ANZ Bank Dandenong No. 013 280 1083 55567

or Money Order or Cheque for $A59.90 inc. G.S.T. and postage.

Outside Australia $US49.00 include. postage and handling.

Conway’s Thoroughbred Fitness Finder.

PO Box 2343 North Dandenong Vic. 3175 Australia.

Email brosway@bigpond.com

 

Other Products available:

Clear laminated Thoroughbred Fitness Finder Desk Top Mats: Approx. 450mm x 650mm for easy reference with all the photos and how to rate information on one big sheet for use when at home, looking at horse racing on the television etc. Price $A39.90 inc G.S.T and postage.

Outside Australia $US33.00 includes postage and handling.

Deluxe Rubber Backed, Thoroughbred Fitness Finder, Laminated Desk Top Mats

(approx. 450mm x 650mm) as above but rubber backed for long lasting use.

Price $A59.90 inc G.S.T. and postage.

Outside Australia $US54.00 includes postage and handling.

 

 

New Fitness information to the Punter is coming soon:

Conways Thoroughbred Fitness Finder.com......The .com where punters will win more often from information on how fit your next bet is and a host of new and innovative services.

Betting On Exchanges.com.....The .com where you win at top odds and especially to successfully lay unfit horses. My 1st experience with laying horses I got the first 47 straight in and ended up with 69 successful lays from 72 selections, many short priced favourites because I knew who was fit to run fast, and who was fat to run last.

Conway’s Harness and Trotting Fitness Finder....The fit information you need to know if you want to win backing harness and trotting horses.... A must for all fans.

Conway’s Greyhound Fitness Finder...... The fit information that will have your next bet on the dogs jump out and lead all the way..... A must have for any punter who wants to "have it all over bar the shouting after the 1st 80 metres"

This is just the start of new wave information that millions of punters will have access to, to turn your punting into profit. Plus some more very exciting and new world 1st services never previously imagineable will soon be available for the new punter who believes in fitness.

 

Worldwide Trade enquires welcome…brosway@bigpond.com

"Good luck and I have proven that Conway’s Thoroughbred Fitness Finder is the answer to success in horses".... Jim Conway.

Details of how this invention works are available when you purchase a product.

 

World Wide Quote Solved: "It’s Fit To Win"… And It Wins!

All Rights Reserved. PATENT PENDING, COPYRIGHT AND RESTRICTIONS ON USE OF CONTENT DATED 1ST of August, 2003. Patent Pending and Copyright protection applies to any illegal copying, modifying, reselling, distribution or creative derivative works from this material, or any other wise is strictly prohibited without written authorisation by its inventor Mr J Conway.
You may not transmit worldwide any part of the material or information contained in it by any means.


Offline triple7

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« 2008-Dec-20, 07:42 AM Reply #3 »

you can't win on the punt and if you say you do you're having us all on

 

Reply
Recommend (3 recommendations so far)  Message 1 of 140 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN nicknameParlayPaul  (Original Message) Sent: 2/12/2003 8:15 PM
i'm new to this forum but the past couple of days i have been browsing through the site.
it appears to me that those of you who claim to be winners on this site e.g gerry's racing ratings, kd spring tips, woodwobber standout quaddies, luskin star's "mr know it all" philosophy are having a lend of themselves. and there's lots of others.
how many are you truly are in the black in your punting lives ?
how many of you are compulsive gamblers and have destroyed not only your life but your loved ones ?
i think it is very sad. i will never be in that category because i am a $2 each way punter and i have control over my gambling so i am one of the lucky ones.
 
  1. Did you ever lose time from work or school due to gambling?
  2. Has gambling ever made your home life unhappy?
  3. Did gambling affect your reputation?
  4. Have you ever felt remorse after gambling?
  5. Did you ever gamble to get money with which to pay debts or otherwise solve financial difficulties?
  6. Did gambling cause a decrease in your ambition or efficiency?
  7. After losing did you feel you must return as soon as possible and win back your losses?
  8. After a win did you have a strong urge to return and win more?
  9. Did you often gamble until your last dollar was gone?
  10. Did you ever borrow to finance your gambling?
  11. Have you ever sold anything to finance gambling?
  12. Were you reluctant to use "gambling money" for normal expenditures?
  13. Did gambling make you careless of the welfare of yourself or your family?
  14. Did you ever gamble longer than you had planned?
  15. Have you ever gambled to escape worry or trouble?
  16. Have you ever committed, or considered committing, an illegal act to finance gambling?
  17. Did gambling cause you to have difficulty in sleeping?
  18. Do arguments, disappointments or frustrations create within you an urge to gamble?
  19. Did you ever have an urge to celebrate any good fortune by a few hours of gambling?
  20. Have you ever considered self destruction or suicide as a result of your gambling?

Most compulsive gamblers will answer yes to at least seven of these questions

Gamblers Anonymous
Regional Service Office

P.O. Box 142, Burwood, NSW 1805
Telephone (02) 9550-0430   Fax (02) 9564-1478
24hr helpline (02)9564-1574
Official Homepage of GA Australia

 
if i have saved one persons life in this forum then this post has been a success
 
paul


Offline Bundy

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« 2008-Dec-28, 08:26 AM Reply #4 »
Time Track RNo TAB Name
------ ------------- ------ ---- ----------------
12:10 Elwick 3 4 Bavarian Belle
1:05 Canberra 1 8 Unfreeze
1:45 Caloundra 2 13 Manziedear
2:31 Elwick 7 7 Zakynthos Angel
2:31 Elwick 7 12 Ego Driven
3:14 Scone 5 11 Helluva Dancer
3:22 Kilmore 5 3 Tinamou
3:35 Caloundra 5 8 Crystal Rocket
3:53 Naracoorte 5 4 Zenal
4:38 Kilmore 7 8 Rolling Stock
4:43 Canberra 7 13 Regency Lodge
5:12 Naracoorte 7 9 Rubarti

These are system selections based around horses having their 2nd, 3rd or 4th run back from a spell who have NOT won in their previous starts since that spell.

« Last Edit: 2008-Dec-28, 08:28 AM by Bundy »

Offline Big Wheel

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« 2008-Dec-29, 12:58 PM Reply #5 »
Hey Triple seven, the thing about the punt is its the only form of gambling
that if you do your homework,form etc it increases your chance of winning
so in regards to your comment about You cant win on the punt speak for yourself
as i Disagree,  maybe you might lose THEREFORE i think you may need
to put in more effort etc and maybe you 2 might win on the punt!!!!!!!!

Offline MagiC~*

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« 2008-Dec-29, 01:22 PM Reply #6 »
Agree Dogsy,

I know quite a few people who win year in year out on the punt.

They are not your avaerage joe down at your local TAB though, and put in pelnty of work week in week out on fiding the winners :/

Gold Coast seems to be there go at the moment

Offline Gintara

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« 2008-Dec-29, 01:25 PM Reply #7 »
Dogsy - Triple7s post is a copy and paste of a thread from the old forum. You will see it is actually a post from someone called 'parlay Paul'.

From memory the guy came onto the forum spruiking that all gambling is bad etc etc, wasn't on there long.

Offline MagiC~*

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« 2008-Dec-29, 01:27 PM Reply #8 »
From memory the guy came onto the forum spruiking that all gambling is bad etc etc, wasn't on there long


  :lol:

It would be like going into your local pub and calling everybody alcoholics   :tomatoes:

Offline Gintara

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« 2008-Dec-29, 01:31 PM Reply #9 »
He didn't get too many favourable responses from memory   :lol:

Unfortunately for him he couldn't understand that a lot of people gamble for fun and entertainment with the vast majority in control of what they do.

Offline triple7

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« 2008-Dec-29, 01:41 PM Reply #10 »
Dogsy this thread was started as a "lest we forget" by Wenona in memory of past classic posts made by some on the msn forum, I just added an old blast from the past from Parlay Paul that provoked an interesting thread and discussion.

Offline triple7

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« 2008-Dec-29, 02:41 PM Reply #11 »
Hey Triple seven, the thing about the punt is its the only form of gambling
that if you do your homework,form etc it increases your chance of winning
so in regards to your comment about You cant win on the punt speak for yourself
as i Disagree,  maybe you might lose THEREFORE i think you may need
to put in more effort etc and maybe you 2 might win on the punt!!!!!!!!

Hey Dogsy, I was just flicking through the tip a winner Wed or Sat thread, with 4 winners from 19 selections maybe you should be taking your own advice?   :p

Offline Mantaray

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« 2009-Jan-25, 08:57 PM Reply #12 »
Wenona. When did you invent those rules?

I tried it out over the past three Saturdays and am pretty amazed.

I have sometimes wondered how a horse with evrything against it comes good at huge odds, but your idea about the trainer deliberately holding back makes sense.

The Saturday before last I put $5 on one in Brisbane which paid $350 (that was 349-1) on Betfair. I could not believe it as it won very easily. There were 3 selections  in the race but 1 of them had almost won at 30-1 in it's previous race, just like you mentioned, so I dropped it. It came about last.

I was only lookin at Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, but then there was one at about $70 on the Gold Coast. Sure enough it was another one of "wenona's wonders". It lost by 11.8 lengths last start and then bolts in.

Can you tell me what you do when the class seems higher but the prizemoney is less; like it is going from an Open at Gosford into a restricted race in Sydney (maybe double or triple the money). Is that up in class or down?

I'm new at some of this but like the way you spot these"coup" horses as we used to say in England.  Do you have any other ideas you might want to share?

Offline arakaan

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« 2009-Jan-25, 09:10 PM Reply #13 »
  :lol:   :lol:   :lol:   :lol:   :lol:   :lol:   :lol:   :lol:   :lol:

sorry mantaray I can't help but laugh. nothing to do with you just memories from the old forum.

Offline Mantaray

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« 2009-Jan-26, 09:04 AM Reply #14 »
Can you let me in on the joke arakan?

So far in 3 Saturdays Wenona has got a few real roughies. And I've been betting them. Only small, $5 but am about $1500 up so far. The wife cannot believe it. I'm hoping today will go well, too.

I have been trying a few ideas around his system and have added a couple of filters, looking at age and a few little things. Using level stakes it looks like you would have made about 100% Profit at least in 2008. I only keep records of best tote and SP. This was best tote mainly but the prices I get for longer priced horses on Betfair is sometimes up to 4 or 5 times the tote.

On saturday there was one in Brisbane with very bad form. It had been beat 3 times on the Gold Coast in Class 4s and so on, always by 5 lengths or more.Then it was in a class 6 in Brisbane, and won at $60 on betfair.  There was nothing at all which showed it was going to improve so much. The owners must have made a fortune!

I bet another long-priced one in the race and dropped another one which was coming from the Magic Millions Cup, because as Wenona pointed to dropping in class being bad.

I have never bet so many roughies in my life but am quite happy.

I can't say what Betfair would have paid last year on all those big winners but so far I've only been watching a small number of races cloasely with BF but it does look promising.

Does anyone know if you can get Betfair Results somewhere? Like the graphs which show how much has been matched at what price.

Thanks again to you Wenona. You are really helping me bigtime.

Offline gratlog

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« 2009-Jan-26, 09:14 AM Reply #15 »
Mantaray, from one who has met Wenona at the Brekky Creek, I can assure you that not only is he a very smart Gent but a nicer bloke you won't meet.  emthup

Offline OldLarsy

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« 2009-Jan-26, 09:27 AM Reply #16 »
Mantaray, from one who has met Wenona at the Brekky Creek, I can assure you that not only is he a very smart Gent but a nicer bloke you won't meet.  emthup

His only blemish is he rings you during a race on Melbourne Cup day   :biggrin:

Offline Mantaray

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« 2009-Jan-26, 09:34 AM Reply #17 »
Me again. I have been looking at the first races today in Sydney and melbourne.

You cannot be sure what the price will be when the race starts, but in Sydney Race 1 there is one called Wally Hatter which isi over $20 on Unitab and in NSW. It is going up to an open race. But last time it ran it was 4th but only 0.9 lengths away from the winner. It was at 50-1 then, so this would knock it out because it was probably pushed very hard that day.

Then in sydney race 2 there is Archgate. It has been beaten by 8 lengths in  last three races and is going from restricted in Gosford to Open i think, in sydney. This is crazy, and i have no idea why this horse is there. At the moment with only $1000 in the pool it is $259 in Victoria. This is one which could be a big upset.

then there is nothing for sure until Melbourne Race 5 "Outdo". This is in a $100,000 race and is first-up. the form looks really bad. What do you think wenona. or anyone else.  Thanks.

Offline Big Wheel

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« 2009-Jan-26, 10:36 AM Reply #18 »
 Mantaray ill give you 2000-1 about Archgate if you have 10 bucks on it
  and 5000-1 if you have 20 on

Offline Mantaray

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« 2009-Jan-26, 10:50 AM Reply #19 »
BIG Dog. What about $5?

If I ask for $1000 on Betfair it will show up on the lay side as 1000;$5. This will then let you lay my $5. And there will be no problem for me to collect...

It is not that i don't trust you BIG DOG, but I have had problems before, sometimes with friends even, getting the money when it's more than a few bucks.

Can you tell me why you are so sure Archgate is a 1000-1 or 2000-1 shot?

Offline Mantaray

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« 2009-Jan-26, 10:54 AM Reply #20 »
I have reconsidered. i will put up $10 at 1000-1, if you like the idea of using Betfair to hold the bets.

Offline Big Wheel

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« 2009-Jan-26, 11:09 AM Reply #21 »
  Trust me bud dont waste your 10 bucks go and spend it on lotto
Archgate would need to start now not to get cleaned up by the ambulance  :lol:   :lol:   :lol:   :lol:   :lol:   :lol:

Offline Mantaray

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« 2009-Jan-26, 11:17 AM Reply #22 »
I prefer to give it to you BIG DOG.

Since I'm going to lose it I prefer a punter to get it. I don't mind backing my thoughts up with a little cash.

 I won't take your 5000-1 offer though if it was paossible I woul;d put the $20 up (As BF says Your Liability $100,000) . Are you sure you won't match the 1000-1 talk with the ten grand?.

OK. I accept you won't walk the walk. No hard feelings, but I am interested in why you think the horse has been put in such a hard race instead of being taken home to taree?

Offline Big Wheel

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« 2009-Jan-26, 11:21 AM Reply #23 »
 mate trust me it cant win

Offline OldLarsy

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« 2009-Jan-26, 11:22 AM Reply #24 »
Because it's owners want a day in the sun in the Members enclosure at Royal Randwick on Australia Day  ;)


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