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Mechanical Systems - Betting, Tips & Ratings - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: Mechanical Systems  (Read 17084 times)

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Offline Wenona

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« 2018-Oct-22, 08:23 AM Reply #50 »
Yes for the first few weeks the Qld and NSW TAB's had the identical offer. I backed both sides and balanced on betfair needed 2 bonuses out of 15 games to make a profit.

Last season 29% of games had a team lead at a quarter and lose and the strike rate was higher than that at the start of the season.

Stats from last year (there's an error of 1 game somewhere)

CollectsGames     
Home Collects3625714.0%    
Away Collects3925715.2%29.2%   
        
    CollectCollect  
 CollectsGames HomeAway  
Home Fav Games4414829.7%162810.8%18.9%
Home Dog Games258629.1%17819.8%9.3%
Home Pk Games62326.1%3313.0%13.0%
        
All Favourites2423410.3%    
All Dogs4523419.2%   

A further breakdown showed the only games that need to be avoided were games where the home favourite was more than a 13 point favourite.

NSW now only pays the bonus if you lead in the last quarter and lose and the Qld Tab has banned me from bonuses.  :(

« Last Edit: 2018-Oct-22, 08:44 AM by Wenona »

Offline arthur

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« 2019-Feb-11, 10:56 AM Reply #51 »
Anybody who blindly follows ratings when making their selections should be aware that  . .

Allround Glory (MKY R3H1  12 Feb) rating on most (all?) sites is completely wrong

They must play 'follow the leader'

Offline JWesleyHarding

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« 2019-Feb-11, 11:21 AM Reply #52 »
What ratings ( figures & sources) are we talking here?

Offline arthur

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« 2019-Feb-11, 11:29 AM Reply #53 »
R&S . . Predicted rating 5.0

S-B . . U-Bet et al . . 75 on 100 point scale

Likely R&S made a typo and other programs blindly followed

Offline JWesleyHarding

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« 2019-Feb-11, 11:45 AM Reply #54 »
NSW tab shows Sky 100

Offline arthur

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« 2019-Feb-11, 11:55 AM Reply #55 »
NSW tab shows Sky 100

Which would be correct . . They mustn't pinch R&S

Offline fours

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« 2019-Feb-11, 01:06 PM Reply #56 »
Rating followers...

Are there any?

I only ask as the number of 40/1 plus winners that are rated on top by one rating provider or more staggers belief!

Wizard in particular was great and R&S no slouch either

Fours

Offline arthur

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« 2019-Feb-13, 02:59 PM Reply #57 »
G'Day Fours

Hope you included the Jester. He was my price yesterday (half a loaf is better than no bread), loves MKY and well spotted by R&S @ about 3.6

I also got 4.1 with a price boost about ARG prepost with my new 'mate Ned (Kelly??)

Offline fours

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« 2019-Feb-13, 03:19 PM Reply #58 »
arthur,

I don't follow them for ever so it was all yours.

Fours

Offline Wenona

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« 2020-Oct-17, 11:23 AM Reply #59 »
Only really bet on greyhounds these days, but I revisited a mechanical system I previously spent a lot of time on last week and found it has been still going strong over the last twelve months. Premise is runners meet certain criteria and if those runners are ranked first in the race based on a second criteria you need $8 to back them otherwise you need $11 to back them. For fun I'll dust it off and run it publicly for six months. Warning - lots of losing runs but some big prices winners.

I'll start with $1,500 and bet 1% of days starting bank (rounded down to whole dollar) on each runner at Betfair SP with the minimum required price.  (real money   :biggrin: ) :x:

So .... $15 Win on each of these at required price.

DateTrackRaceNoHorseReqd
17-Oct-20Doomben38Music Award$11.00
17-Oct-20Doomben39Syncline$11.00
17-Oct-20Doomben44Torrens$8.00
17-Oct-20Doomben53Clockwise$11.00
17-Oct-20Doomben58Air Spirit$11.00
17-Oct-20Doomben510Explosive Quality$11.00
17-Oct-20Doomben67Trusty Lad$11.00
17-Oct-20Doomben611Don't Stop$11.00
17-Oct-20Doomben612Nic Nat Nui$8.00
17-Oct-20Doomben73Lotta Creek Gold$8.00
17-Oct-20Doomben78Testashadow$11.00
17-Oct-20Doomben83Stravirgo$11.00
17-Oct-20Doomben85Jackpot Jay$8.00
17-Oct-20Doomben86Royal Hale$11.00
17-Oct-20Doomben88Colpo Di Tamburo$11.00
17-Oct-20Doomben810Great Keppell$11.00
17-Oct-20Doomben99Fasano$11.00
17-Oct-20Doomben911Mountbatten$8.00
« Last Edit: 2020-Oct-17, 11:45 AM by Wenona »

Offline fours

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« 2020-Oct-18, 10:47 AM Reply #60 »
Wenona,

One of my mechanical systems picked up Taxagano Ascot r8 at 100/1.

Not a cent on it of course as had a life at the time.

Fours

Offline Wenona

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« 2020-Oct-18, 12:57 PM Reply #61 »
   Results to Date      
           $1,500.00
DateTrackRaceNoHorseReqdSPBetCame +/- Bank
17-Oct-20Doomben38Music Award$11.00$132.22$15.000($15.00) $1,485.00
17-Oct-20Doomben44Torrens$8.00$29.00$15.000($15.00) $1,470.00
17-Oct-20Doomben53Clockwise$11.00$19.46$15.000($15.00) $1,455.00
17-Oct-20Doomben73Lotta Creek Gold$8.00$66.91$15.000($15.00) $1,440.00
17-Oct-20Doomben78Testashadow$11.00$11.50$15.002($15.00) $1,425.00
17-Oct-20Doomben85Jackpot Jay$8.00$17.00$15.000($15.00) $1,410.00
17-Oct-20Doomben88Colpo Di Tamburo$11.00$14.06$15.000($15.00) $1,395.00
17-Oct-20Doomben910Mountbatten$8.00$12.72$15.000($15.00) $1,380.00

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Oct-18, 01:23 PM Reply #62 »
Stick with it Wenona and good luck   emthup

Offline Wenona

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« 2020-Oct-18, 08:20 PM Reply #63 »
Thanks, the backed runners had a combined percentage of 40% so not much grief in the results yet. Ideally you'd have less on the $100 and $66 selections but I just wanted a set and forget methodology.

Offline fours

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« 2020-Oct-18, 08:39 PM Reply #64 »
Wenona,

I was down around 30 units before th 100/1 hit. No money down just tracking.

Its the nature of the beast once you go longer prices.

Fours

Offline Wenona

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« 2020-Oct-24, 08:58 AM Reply #65 »
$13 on these at the price.

DateTrackRaceNoHorseReqd
24-Oct-20Doomben15Gin 'N' Bitters$8.00
24-Oct-20Doomben32Ziemba$11.00
24-Oct-20Doomben510Checkmate Lad$11.00
24-Oct-20Doomben511Ocean Treaty$8.00
24-Oct-20Doomben79Fisticuffs$11.00
24-Oct-20Doomben712Kubrick$8.00
24-Oct-20Doomben95Desert Lord$11.00
24-Oct-20Doomben910Emerald Kingdom$8.00

Offline Wenona

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« 2020-Oct-24, 03:06 PM Reply #66 »
With the late scratching of Kubrick - 314 Unguarded becomes a selection (I eliminate runners starting wider than barrier 12)

More than 30 minutes to go as races put back so I'll post it  ......

24-Oct-20Doomben714Unguarded$8.00

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Oct-24, 03:34 PM Reply #68 »
TAB showing race 7 as ABND  :(

Offline Wenona

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« 2020-Oct-25, 09:19 AM Reply #69 »
Results to Date

DateTrackRaceNoHorseReqdSPBetCame +/- Bank $1500
17-Oct-20Doomben38Music Award$11.00$132.22$15.000($15.00) $1,485.00
17-Oct-20Doomben44Torrens$8.00$29.00$15.000($15.00) $1,470.00
17-Oct-20Doomben53Clockwise$11.00$19.46$15.000($15.00) $1,455.00
17-Oct-20Doomben73Lotta Creek Gold$8.00$66.91$15.000($15.00) $1,440.00
17-Oct-20Doomben78Testashadow$11.00$11.50$15.002($15.00) $1,425.00
17-Oct-20Doomben85Jackpot Jay$8.00$17.00$15.000($15.00) $1,410.00
17-Oct-20Doomben88Colpo Di Tamburo$11.00$14.06$15.000($15.00) $1,395.00
17-Oct-20Doomben910Mountbatten$8.00$12.72$15.000($15.00) $1,380.00
24-Oct-20Doomben15Gin 'N' Bitters$8.00$12.15$13.002($13.00) $1,367.00
24-Oct-20Doomben510Checkmate Lad$11.00$12.78$13.000($13.00) $1,354.00

Offline Wenona

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« 2020-Oct-31, 09:17 AM Reply #70 »
$13 Betfair SP at required price

DateTrackRaceNoHorseReqd
31-Oct-20Doomben31Lyrical Girl$11.00
31-Oct-20Doomben39Flirty Deb$11.00
31-Oct-20Doomben310Pieloce$8.00
31-Oct-20Doomben311Soubrette$11.00
31-Oct-20Doomben45Moscini$11.00
31-Oct-20Doomben48Skins$11.00
31-Oct-20Doomben75Emerald Kingdom$8.00
31-Oct-20Doomben77Grey Missile$11.00
31-Oct-20Doomben79Impasse$11.00
31-Oct-20Doomben81Weboughtazou$11.00
31-Oct-20Doomben810Depths Below$8.00
31-Oct-20Doomben912Cape Wickham$11.00
31-Oct-20Doomben109Fisticuffs$11.00
31-Oct-20Doomben1016Unguarded$8.00

Offline Wenona

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« 2020-Nov-07, 09:49 AM Reply #71 »
   Results to Date      
           $1,500.00
DateTrackRaceNoHorseReqdSPBetCame +/- Bank $1500
17-Oct-20Doomben38Music Award$11.00$132.22$15.000($15.00) $1,485.00
17-Oct-20Doomben44Torrens$8.00$29.00$15.000($15.00) $1,470.00
17-Oct-20Doomben53Clockwise$11.00$19.46$15.000($15.00) $1,455.00
17-Oct-20Doomben73Lotta Creek Gold$8.00$66.91$15.000($15.00) $1,440.00
17-Oct-20Doomben78Testashadow$11.00$11.50$15.002($15.00) $1,425.00
17-Oct-20Doomben85Jackpot Jay$8.00$17.00$15.000($15.00) $1,410.00
17-Oct-20Doomben88Colpo Di Tamburo$11.00$14.06$15.000($15.00) $1,395.00
17-Oct-20Doomben910Mountbatten$8.00$12.72$15.000($15.00) $1,380.00
24-Oct-20Doomben15Gin 'N' Bitters$8.00$12.15$13.002($13.00) $1,367.00
24-Oct-20Doomben510Checkmate Lad$11.00$12.78$13.000($13.00) $1,354.00
31-Oct-20Doomben39Flirty Deb$11.00$26.70$13.003($13.00) $1,341.00
31-Oct-20Doomben310Pieloce$8.00$23.00$13.000($13.00) $1,328.00
31-Oct-20Doomben45Moscini$11.00$90.00$13.000($13.00) $1,315.00
31-Oct-20Doomben79Impasse$11.00$32.81$13.000($13.00) $1,302.00
31-Oct-20Doomben810Depths Below$8.00$13.00$13.000($13.00) $1,289.00
31-Oct-20Doomben912Cape Wickham$11.00$26.00$13.000($13.00) $1,276.00
31-Oct-20Doomben1016Unguarded$8.00$11.75$13.000($13.00) $1,263.00

Offline Wenona

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« 2020-Nov-07, 10:04 AM Reply #72 »
$12 Bets at required

DateTrackRaceNoHorseReqd
07-Nov-20Doomben37Windermere$11.00
07-Nov-20Doomben45Jeweliana$11.00
07-Nov-20Doomben52Grand Zou$11.00
07-Nov-20Doomben57Don't Stop$11.00
07-Nov-20Doomben510Princess Kayo$11.00
07-Nov-20Doomben511Purroni$8.00
07-Nov-20Doomben75Desert Lord$11.00
07-Nov-20Doomben78Sea Raider$11.00
07-Nov-20Doomben711Star of Michelin$11.00
07-Nov-20Doomben713Kubrick$8.00
07-Nov-20Doomben82Boomsara$8.00
07-Nov-20Doomben84Emerald Kingdom$11.00
07-Nov-20Doomben812Grey Missile$11.00
07-Nov-20Doomben916Spending My Time$11.00

Offline fours

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« 2020-Nov-07, 10:33 AM Reply #73 »
Wenona,

Have you looked at covering 2nd with an exacta for a % of the bet.

Favs 1-6 prepost win 86% of races - can be as simple as that. But I would do it in a more complex fashion.

Fours

Offline Wenona

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« 2020-Nov-08, 09:14 AM Reply #74 »
I'm just putting the bets up in the morning and forgetting - now I'm focused on the dogs Saturday day is kind of time off, I'll start to monitor the place divs though.

I've been running it on Sydney and Melbourne as well out of interest - might post those if anyone's interested ... it's in front and went close yesterday with a $60+ second.

Betting results so far ....

DateTrackRaceNoHorseReqdSPBetCame +/- Bank $1500
17-Oct-20Doomben38Music Award$11.00$132.22$15.000($15.00) $1,485.00
17-Oct-20Doomben44Torrens$8.00$29.00$15.000($15.00) $1,470.00
17-Oct-20Doomben53Clockwise$11.00$19.46$15.000($15.00) $1,455.00
17-Oct-20Doomben73Lotta Creek Gold$8.00$66.91$15.000($15.00) $1,440.00
17-Oct-20Doomben78Testashadow$11.00$11.50$15.002($15.00) $1,425.00
17-Oct-20Doomben85Jackpot Jay$8.00$17.00$15.000($15.00) $1,410.00
17-Oct-20Doomben88Colpo Di Tamburo$11.00$14.06$15.000($15.00) $1,395.00
17-Oct-20Doomben910Mountbatten$8.00$12.72$15.000($15.00) $1,380.00
24-Oct-20Doomben15Gin 'N' Bitters$8.00$12.15$13.002($13.00) $1,367.00
24-Oct-20Doomben510Checkmate Lad$11.00$12.78$13.000($13.00) $1,354.00
31-Oct-20Doomben39Flirty Deb$11.00$26.70$13.003($13.00) $1,341.00
31-Oct-20Doomben310Pieloce$8.00$23.00$13.000($13.00) $1,328.00
31-Oct-20Doomben45Moscini$11.00$90.00$13.000($13.00) $1,315.00
31-Oct-20Doomben79Impasse$11.00$32.81$13.000($13.00) $1,302.00
31-Oct-20Doomben810Depths Below$8.00$13.00$13.000($13.00) $1,289.00
31-Oct-20Doomben912Cape Wickham$11.00$26.00$13.000($13.00) $1,276.00
31-Oct-20Doomben1016Unguarded$8.00$11.75$13.000($13.00) $1,263.00
07-Nov-20Doomben37Windermere$11.00$18.63$12.001$198.85 $1,461.85
07-Nov-20Doomben510Princess Kayo$11.00$70.03$12.000($12.00) $1,449.85
07-Nov-20Doomben78Sea Raider$11.00$30.00$12.000($12.00) $1,437.85
07-Nov-20Doomben711Star of Michelin$11.00$23.84$12.000($12.00) $1,425.85
07-Nov-20Doomben713Kubrick$8.00$8.48$12.000($12.00) $1,413.85
07-Nov-20Doomben82Boomsara$8.00$16.43$12.000($12.00) $1,401.85
07-Nov-20Doomben916Spending My Time$11.00$26.93$12.000($12.00) $1,389.85


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