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Mechanical Systems - Betting, Tips & Ratings - Racehorse TALK

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Offline Wenona

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O.P. « 2013-Aug-03, 10:04 AM »
We've all tried them.

They're a bit of fun and a good way of exploring different aspects of form.

I set one up on the Wizard system builder and left it for a few months.

It's been turning a profit (without tweeking) so I thought the best way to stop it was to post the picks here.

I'll bet 1.5% of the days start bank on each pick and start with $1000 bank.

Feel free to add your own methods.

This one is based mainly on runners dropping in field strength (not necessarily class).





Offline Wenona

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« 2013-Aug-03, 10:05 AM Reply #1 »
BELMONT PARK 3/08/2013

Race Tab Horse
3 10 TIGER TERRITORY

COONABARABRAN 3/08/2013

Race Tab Horse
7 2 JUSTAFEWPROBLEMS

MORPHETTVILLE PARKS 3/08/2013

Race Tab Horse
5 8 SPIRITOF ENDEAVOUR

RICCARTON 3/08/2013

Race Tab Horse
10 4 THE LONE RANGER

RUAKAKA 3/08/2013

Race Tab Horse
1 1 RIGHTEO

Offline Wenona

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« 2013-Aug-04, 10:36 PM Reply #2 »
2 winners from 5 Saturday - $75 on $118.50 return.

Tomorrow

BALLINA 5/08/2013

Race Tab Horse
6 2 JUST SO BRUNO

DARWIN 5/08/2013

Race Tab Horse
8 1 ACTION AGAIN

FORBES 5/08/2013

Race Tab Horse
5 4 YOUR EXCELLENCY

Offline specialweek

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« 2013-Aug-05, 11:41 AM Reply #3 »
Only 1 got a start unfortunately, Forbes.

Offline Wenona

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« 2013-Aug-06, 06:08 PM Reply #4 »
Big effort Sunday getting a $1.60 pop rolled.




CANTERBURY 7/08/2013
Race Tab Horse
5 12 MUCHACHO



DOOMBEN 7/08/2013
Race Tab Horse
6 3 SHADOW ME
7 1 SEA TRYST



RICCARTON 7/08/2013
Race Tab Horse
7 4 ASK ME



SANDOWN-HILLSIDE 7/08/2013
Race Tab Horse
7 9 ISLAND BAR




Offline el zoro

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« 2013-Aug-07, 11:44 AM Reply #5 »
What's the strike rate & profit %  from the system you are using?

Offline Wenona

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« 2013-Aug-07, 01:46 PM Reply #6 »
I haven't got those exact figures.

I put the rules in and played with it for a little while then let it be for a few months.

There's some problems with the Wizard system builder in terms of results but I went through the results enough to be sure it was turning some sort of profit and have now decided to post them up here to see how they go in detail.

Do you use the wizard stuff EZ?

I think the system builder is fun but a hugely under developed resource.


Offline el zoro

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« 2013-Aug-07, 05:35 PM Reply #7 »
I download CSV files from everyrace.com which I believe is part of the wizard.

I had a play around with that builder database a long time ago but just for a bit of fun.   

Offline Wenona

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« 2013-Aug-08, 09:30 AM Reply #8 »
Terrible yesterday.

   
HASTINGS   08/08/2013
Race 5
   

6   QUALITY ROYAL   

Offline Wenona

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« 2013-Aug-10, 11:08 AM Reply #9 »





BELMONT PARK 10/08/2013

Race Tab Horse

4 3 KEEPERS COURT

5 8 MISS DANDY

7 4 SETTLE STRADA

7 10 KALAHAAR





FLEMINGTON 10/08/2013

Race Tab Horse

1 2 DEHERE HUNTER

9 2 BERRIMILLA





MURTOA 10/08/2013

Race Tab Horse

4 5 RELENTLESS





NEWCASTLE 10/08/2013

Race Tab Horse

8 1 MEGA RICH

8 3 AL'S PRIDE

Offline Wenona

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« 2013-Aug-11, 12:23 PM Reply #10 »
   
HOBART   11/08/2013
Race 3
5 ONTHECOUNTOFTHREE
   

Offline Wenona

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« 2015-Aug-29, 11:54 AM Reply #11 »
Thought I might have another crack.

Been working on this one for quite a while ........ Brisbane Saturday at the moment .... haven't tested anywhere else yet ....

Bit of a difference is I'm only betting if I get $8.00 or more Betfair SP - easy to do just put the bet in with the price minimum and if it's not met the bet is cancelled.  I'll post al the picks though.

Posting is usually the kiss of death ... but here goes ... I'll post 100 picks and see ... I'll even put $10 on each so I've got some skin in the game.

Doomben 29/08/2015

BR1 #1 Canny Ballad
BR1 #6 Flying Lucky
BR3 #2 Bush Aviator
BR3 #6 Beckham
BR4 #8 Fille Ardente
BR4 #10 More For Me
BR5 #4 Quick Snitzel
BR5 #9 Punta Norte
BR7 #8 Grecian Summer




Offline Wenona

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« 2016-Feb-20, 11:14 AM Reply #12 »
Have been working on a variation of the previous - have been testing and back testing (as opposed to back fitting) - ready to make a debut.

This is low strike rate method - about 10% would be my top expectation. Long runs of outs should be expected.

As before - betting Betfair SP - only taking $7.40 or above. I'll list all the runners that meet the criteria.


BR2 - 3  Justthewayyouare
BR3 - 7  Heart Of A Warrior
BR3 - 11 How Can I Help
BR4 - 4    Doula
BR4 - 10    Rosella
BR5 - 1   Quick Ketch
BR5 - 3   Monaco Playboy
BR6 - 5   Endless Puzzle
BR6 - 11   Little White
BR7 - 5   Lauterbrunnen


AR3 -1   Calianco
AR3 -4   Highest Note
AR5 - 1   Hioctdane
AR5 - 6   Warrior Of Fire
AR6 - 2   Dylanson
AR6 - 4    Red Eclipse
AR7 - 1   Kushadasi





Offline Wenona

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« 2016-Feb-27, 10:49 AM Reply #13 »
Week 1 - Selections 10 - Winners 0

This weeks qualifiers

BR1 H4 Ranked
BR1 H5 Cramming
BR3 H5 Plateau Gold
BR3 H8 Heart Smart
BR3 H9 Lady Jetsetter
BR4 H4 Kempelly
BR4 H7 Flying Riddle
BR5 H3 Right Or Wrong
BR5 H8 Punta Norte
BR6 H9 Sharpe Hussler
BR7 H10 Slydini
BR7 H11 Wild N Famous
BR7 H12 Spirit Of Heaven
BR7 H16 Max It Out
BR8 H2 Dream Finish
BR8 H9 Subsolar

AR2 H4 Abu Dhabi
AR2 H6 Beau Rivage
AR4 H4 Captain Punch
AR4 8 Lady Andress
AR5 H9 Redeem Bounty
AR6 H9 Hotel Sierra
AR6 H12 Wilander Princess
AR7 H9 Perpetual Bliss
AR7 H14 The Gee Train
AR8 H4 Fine Approach
AR8 H12 Royal Rumble
AR8 H14 Young Tigers Jeuny

Offline Wenona

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« 2016-Feb-27, 02:23 PM Reply #14 »
With Late Scr - BR7 H4 Anymore makes the cut

Offline Wenona

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« 2016-Mar-05, 10:51 AM Reply #15 »
BR2 H7 Bentles
BR2 H9 Old Smokey
BR3 H6 Kraftwerk
BR3 H8 Ruling Force
BR4 H8 Torbay
BR4 H11 Tampere
BR5 H11 Another Whiskey
BR5 H15 Pandora Charm
BR6 H3 Redsson
BR6 H5 Secret Trail
BR7 H7 Heart Of A Warrior
BR8 H12 True Royal

AR2 H1 Metier
AR2 H2 Battle Wing
AR2 H3 Mail It In
AR6 H1 Adirondack
AR6 H11 Rooboy
AR6 H15 Watch The Wolf
AR8 H9 Petrov

Offline Wenona

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« 2016-Mar-12, 09:15 AM Reply #16 »
Still waiting for the big one ........

BR3 H6 Max On It
BR4 H3 Heroism
BR5 H13 Lever Lever
BR6 H6 Beau Jet
BR6 H11 Frilly Curtain
BR6 H14 Lush Belle
BR7 H1 Tiger Tees
BR8 H5 Punta Norte
BR8 H12 Youwaitandsee

AR3 H3 Majestic Moment
AR5 H6 Prestbury Park
AR6 H6 Manhattan Prince
AR7 H6 Rocket Commander
AR8 H1 Colonel Custer
AR8 H9 Dropped

Offline Wenona

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« 2016-Mar-19, 08:49 AM Reply #17 »
BR2 H6 Torbay
BR2 H9 Spirit Minded
BR3 H4 Bentles
BR3 H5 Lord Coconuts
BR3 H7 Old Smokey
BR5 H10 Denarius
BR6 H7 Deconstructed
BR7 H7 Heart Of A Warrior
BR7 H11 Plutorius
BR7 H 12 Zimbali
BR8 H1 Big Tree
BR8 H2 Quick Ketch
BR8 H7 Jetsonic
BR8 H11Oberland

AR5 H6 Kilim
AR5 H8 Spartan Warrior
AR6 H10 Our Prospect
AR8 H8 Saturday Magic


Offline Wenona

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« 2018-Aug-04, 12:26 PM Reply #18 »
Three years on I'm still using a variation of what I was working on in 2015.

New season so I'd thought I'd post the selections for a bit .......

I put these in Betfair SP requiring $11.00.

As a test I'll start with a 1000 unit bank and bet 0.75% of the day starting bank on each.

Todays selections : (I'll post all the qualifiers even if they're no chance of starting $11+)

BR3 #8 Explosive One
BR3 #11 Bronzed Venom  $14.69/$4.43  3rd
BR4 #4 Prompt Return
BR5 #5 Magstock $12.00/$2.67  X
BR6 #3 Sacred Rebel $12.50/$3.05  2nd
BR6 #4 Scallopini
BR6 #8 Kubis $17.50/$4.26  X
BR7 #7 On The Spot
BR7 #17 Zendane $39.21/$8.17 X
BR9 #9 Nothing Box $164.67/$14.74 4th


« Last Edit: 2018-Aug-12, 12:11 PM by Wenona »

Online fours

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« 2018-Aug-04, 12:44 PM Reply #19 »
Wenona,

How is it going?

The $11.00 requirement is a form of discipline but you are not taking into account relativities. That is some 20/1 horses should be $5, some should be $12, some should be $20 ie spot on and some should be $40 and some should be $200.00.

I have one mechanical approach >200 units in profit in a few months  - so it CAN be done.

Fours

Offline Wenona

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« 2018-Aug-11, 11:29 AM Reply #20 »
Today's Qualifiers

BR1 #9 Shesees Everything
BR3 #2 Rhyme Nor Reason
BR4 #7 Meet Mr Taylor $11.28/$2.50  Won
BR4 #12 I am Venus $17.55/$3.44  4th
BR5 #9 Irish Optimism
BR6 #6 Malvern Estate
BR7 #5 Bold Shot $28.29/$7.10  X
BR7 #7 Kubis
BR8 #5 Cosmic Engine $44.00/$7.80 X
BR8 #14 Makes You Think
BR9 #7 Conquering Lass $11.00/$3.15  X
BR9 #9 Splitter
BR9 #12 Francisca
« Last Edit: 2018-Aug-12, 12:13 PM by Wenona »

Offline Wenona

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« 2018-Aug-11, 06:41 PM Reply #21 »
Wenona,

How is it going?

The $11.00 requirement is a form of discipline but you are not taking into account relativities. That is some 20/1 horses should be $5, some should be $12, some should be $20 ie spot on and some should be $40 and some should be $200.00.

I have one mechanical approach >200 units in profit in a few months  - so it CAN be done.

Fours

It's been profitable for a quite a while.

It doesn't estimate a true price just identifies a pool of runners who have some characteristics that I believe can be under valued by the public. That's why I only bet at $11 or over - the winning percentage over a long period of time doesn't drop significantly over that price and the edge is more evident. The longer the price the bigger the edge - obviously the win percentage does drop as the price gets longer but the ROI increases. If it's under $11 it indicates the factors have been acknowledged by the public or there's other factors that dominate and are fully integrated by the public. The win rate is obviously not going to be huge and there are runs of outs but it will hit some big price winners that hopefully continue the profits.

Also it did pick a $164 shot that ran 4th last week. :)


Online fours

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« 2018-Aug-12, 09:06 AM Reply #22 »
Wenona,

If you have time have a look at combining a place bet with a First Four bet covering 4th only.

No reason NOT to take advantage of your roughies when they run 4th.

IF you know place bets don't make a profit than maybe just 4th for a First Four bet will.

Fours

Offline pegasyber

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« 2018-Aug-12, 02:57 PM Reply #23 »
 P.M. said in another thread:
Quote
"Most punters did not win in those races"
  one of which was Flemington Race 5; the First Four in that race on Tatts paid $17,869; more than twice as much as NSW $7,207, and Vic Tab $8,054. And by the way No  8   paid $11.70 for the place.
  The Computer spends most of it's effort on finding the roughie that really is not a roughie, but a worthwhile place or fourth place bet in a First Four.  In effect it is building a Mechanical System type bet.  It is not getting any better at structuing a Roving Banker type F4 bet.  Still a long way to go.

Quote
VF140817 FL51108F * RACE NAME ID* [ FL51108F  2018. BM 70 HANDICAP,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 1200 mtrs]. COMPRUN 08-11-2018. AT 15:41:45 RESULT  [   2  11  8  7   ~     6  9    ]  F4 $ 17,869.80.

 * HORSE NOS [  14 8 +%- 1 ]%VAL HILO.!SELN $20 # 8 NOW! @$41. LR7DS=[  1  6y ] TrJk[ 2  5  7  11 18 ]SPL
 *BOX7F4 KSN[ <: 9 <:]  6  17  20  1  3  7  1 ]BASE DPLGWP[ 1  6  7  9  11  12  14 ]*LRWD= 2  11  18  3  4  .]
 *DUBL ROV BNKR [ <: 9 <:]  6  1 ] X [SDup 1  3  11  <<GW1+ [ 6 2 9 17 1 ]* T4FV[  11 12 2 ]. {<  8 +%- 1 >}
 *TRPL ROV BNKR [ <: 9 <:]  6  1 6  17  0] X [ *I/CCL= 17  3  5  6  2  7  ]*MVRvBnk<<  SPGM  6 9 <[TLMV 11 6 14 9 12   +
 T3VIC$  17  3  0  1  3  7   14 8 +%- *. KEEP TRIPLS. * SPLRESIDS** [  1  3  6  9  11  12  14 ] *CRUSHD*[ 11  12 <MUST< ]
 *IN TX2[ # 1 =12 ] # 6 =10 +v% ] # 9 =8 ] # 11 =8 ] # 3 =7 +v% ] # 2 =5 ] # 7 =5 ] # 12 =5 ] # 14 =5 +v% ] # 17 =5 +v% ] # 8 =4 +v% ] <TRY RVBs. ESP [ #  6 DOUBLE JEO @ $17/1. +34%. OVAs PAL$. BIGST=[ #  3 ELECTRIC C.  @ $151/1. +1541%.  ]*
% VALUE HI-LO [ #6 $17+34%]. #8 $41+92%]. #14 $71+95%]. #17 $41+377%]. #4 $201+748%]. #5 $101+802%]. #20 $81+1186%]. #3 $151+1541%].  * $&% LEFTMOST CONSIDER!!


VF140817 FL51108F * FIXD ODDS INP[    67, 9.5, 151, 201, 101, 17, 12, 41, 151, 99, 2, 4.8, 99, 71, 99, 99, 41, 17, 99, 81     END NR=   20   ] IN TABNO ORDER 1-NR. LATEST @ 15:41:45 08-11-2018
Quote
RESULT [  2  11  8  7   ~     6  9     ]  # 2 *!MUST KEEP!*d # 11 *!MUST KEEP!*d # 18 *!MUST KEEP!*d # 3 *!MUST KEEP!*d # 4 *!MUST KEEP!*d SPCL TR/JK/COMBOS [  2  5  7  11 18 ] DBL CHK *HI$E=[ # 9 ] BELIEVING ]. *SCNDHI$E=[ # 6 ] DOUBLE JEO}. * SOLE LR7DS= [  1 ASTRO CA 6Yo.].  <<GW1+  [ 6 2 9 17 1 ]* LRWDV= [ 2  11  18  3  4  . +A= LR7D [ 1 ].  ] I/CCL=[  17  3  5  6  2  7  DUPGWPAC=[  1  6  7  9  11  12  14  ].* MKUP [  0   @ $ 0 ]** * INSURANCE VAL[  8 0 FXD= $41.  14 FXD= $71.] BET NOW! * VALUNOS [  1  8  14  ]* * T5TTLMVS[ 11 6 14 9 12   A S/A. DBLCHK TJC]. *LR7DS=[  1 6yo  ] *CRUSHD=[  11  12  ] ESP*[ 1  3  11  & # 11 GOLD MAG  IS A 4yo IMPRM/VR  ]*]. * SPLRESIDS [ ** [  1  3  6  9  11  12  14  ] ** CONSIDER NSW/VIC TAB F4S + *SUPASPL [ 0  0kg ]. *BMVRDPL= 1  3  11  ***  RUN END NORMALLY  ***. CALC TIME=  1.9 Secs.
  What would have been the reasoning in making No  11 such  a false favourite, certainly not it's Speed capability?.
Quote
VF140817 FL51108F * SPD ORD TABNO [   20   17    3    6    5    2   18    8    7    1   14   12    4   11    9   ] T5 HI HIT. USE SPD UPTO 1450m
VF140817 FL51108F * SPD RATNG ORD [  978  936  934  932  897  890  879  866  860  853  850  848  839  778  699  ] /1. IN SPEED ORDER
VF140817 FL51108F * AT TRK n DIST SPD [ CF12 FL11 AV11 FL11 BG13 MP10 FL14 CF11 FL12 MV12 FL12 MV12 AV12 BG11 SD14  ] IN SPD ORD*
« Last Edit: 2018-Aug-13, 08:13 AM by pegasyber »

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2018-Aug-12, 04:45 PM Reply #24 »
Not sure how you work out th3bspeed capability but I thought Gold Mag was stunning last start, especially his last 400m


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