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Mechanical Systems - Betting, Tips & Ratings - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: Mechanical Systems  (Read 7317 times)

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Offline pegasyber

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« 2018-Aug-12, 06:31 PM Reply #25 »
  Yes Wiley, that would be borne out by the Finishing Speed relative ranking to Speed or WMSpeed rankings; however Relative Horse Strengths, also  must be considered .
Quote
VF140817 FL51108F * L600 FSPD T10 [    6   11   17   20    7    4   12   18   14    2    1    9    5    3    8   ]* BFT2[  6 DOUBLE Rk x4 Ln x0. ] *BMVRF[  4 CANELO Rk x3  Ln X-.8. ] [ 9 BELIEV Rk x3  Ln x-3.3. ] n [ 12 ILLUMICON  Rx3  Ln x-1. ] ESP. for VERY HEAVY!.

VF140817 FL51108F * GW$CLASS$ ORD [   6    2    9    17    1    14    7    20    12    18    11    3    8    4    5   ].  9 BELIEV 17d -200m  4k  6y]  [ 1 ASTRO  7d  0m  10k  6y]  [ 14 WILDE  21d  0m  4k  5y]  [ 2 CHOISB 14d  0m  4k  ---  4y.
   It was just that N0  2  had a better class GW$CLASS rating  plus far better Price. One would not leave No 11  out of the F4, but would not select as a standout Winning chance.  But thank Computers, Mechanical Systems, and  the Stars for those that believe that price is the only guide.
 As Ken Howard used to say "never run up stairs and never, ever  back odds on"
« Last Edit: 2018-Aug-14, 10:17 AM by pegasyber »

Offline Wenona

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« 2018-Aug-15, 09:29 AM Reply #26 »
Public holiday Doomben today - Qualifiers - only a couple look likely to start BFSP $11 or mo

BR3 #1 The Mechanic
BR3 #4 Zumikon
BR3 #6 Star Justice
BR5 #3 Monaco Snob
BR5 #7 Amthaal
BR6 #7 Brenda
BR7 #10 Metis
BR7 #12 La Vida Loca
BR7 #13 Stella Power
BR8 #1 Show Bender
BR8 #9 Red Hearts


Offline Wenona

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« 2018-Aug-18, 10:19 AM Reply #27 »
Qualifiers today :

BR1 #1 Prue's Angel
BR3 #7 Darktown Strutter
BR3 #9 Girl In A Million
BR4 #9 Clever Blaze
BR5 #3 Reach For Heaven
BR5 #6 On The Spot
BR6 #10 Reiby The Red
BR7 #13 Licitra
BR7 #14 Soft Top
BR8 #15 Nothing Box
BR9 #1 Daring Deeds
BR9 #15 Time To Play



Offline Wenona

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« 2018-Aug-25, 11:46 AM Reply #28 »
Qualifiers Today :

BR1 #7 From Within
BR1 #13 Navy
BR1 #16 I Am Venus
BR2 #7 Good Time Charlie
BR2 #12 Linlithgow
BR2 #13 Miss Wonderland
BR4 #10 Endless Days
BR5 #8 Publishing Power
BR6 #7 Zumberlina
BR9 # Time To Torque
BR7 #9 Mishani Sleuth
BR7 #12 Sheesees Everything
BR8 #12 Benfica Princess
BR9 #19 All In Reflexes
BR9 #21 Makes You Think

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2018-Aug-25, 12:56 PM Reply #29 »
Your off to a good start mate :thumbsup:

Offline twoup

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« 2018-Aug-27, 02:07 PM Reply #30 »
SPAM. Refer to rules.
« Last Edit: 2018-Aug-27, 03:43 PM by PoisonPen7 »

Offline Wenona

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« 2018-Sep-01, 10:36 AM Reply #31 »
Only one $11+ winner so far ... I suspect the place returns are well in front. Need quite a few runners to draw any conclusions when you're betting $11+.

Interesting today's two biggest priced qualifiers I actually backed each-way last night before running the program : Treasure Gallery at a boosted $35 and Courage Within at $151.  :x:

Today's qualifiers:

BR5 #5 Looks Like Elvis
BR6 #8 Meteorologist
BR7 #7 Volkoff
BR7 #10 Tversky
BR8 #6 Rhyming
BR8 #7 Comic Story
BR8 #14 Treasure Gallery
BR9 #13 Courage Within
BR9 #14 Namib

« Last Edit: 2018-Sep-01, 10:42 AM by Wenona »

Offline Wenona

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« 2018-Sep-01, 06:14 PM Reply #32 »
Fair dinkum if the last is declared a no race I might give it away.

Offline nemisis

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« 2018-Sep-01, 06:23 PM Reply #33 »
Surely It has to be a no race.

Offline Wenona

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« 2018-Sep-08, 10:41 AM Reply #34 »
Qualifiers today

BR2 #5 Tawfiq Boy
BR2 #6 Divine Dice
BR2 #8 Prue's Angel
BR7 #7 Zumbelina
BR7 #10 Lucky Tom
BR8 #4 Capital Connection
BR8 #14 Road To Heaven
BR9 #15 Romney's Choice

Offline Wenona

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« 2018-Sep-15, 11:41 AM Reply #35 »
Qualifiers:

BR3 #3 Junglized
BR3 #10 Good Time Charlie
BR4 #1 Cannyescent
BR4 #2 Niccanova
BR4 #5 Tversky
BR4 #7 Darktown Strutter
BR5 #6 Umberto
BR5 #9 Francisca
BR6 #12 Pedway
BR6 #16 Aggravate
BR7 #3 Order Again
BR7 #7 Glendara
BR8 #4 Old Habits
BR8 #8 Reach For Heaven
BR9 #5 Polemic

Offline Wenona

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« 2018-Sep-22, 11:07 AM Reply #36 »
Qualifiers:

BR1 #2 Pinch Passion
BR2 #3 Sorority Sister
BR2 #9 Intrinsic
BR3 #4 So Skilled
BR6 #11 Phabeni
BR7 #3 Zumbelina
BR7 #4 Fortenski
BR8 #9 Dream Kisses
BR9 #9 Zofonic Dancer

Offline Wenona

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« 2018-Sep-29, 11:28 AM Reply #37 »
Qualifiers:

BR3 #2 Polemic
BR3 #12 Romakash
BR3 #13 Sofie's Gold Class
BR5 #3 Paradis Imperial
BR5 #10 Blue Seattle
BR5 #14 Aultbea
BR6 #11 Beau Arrow
BR6 #14 Bold Chance
BR7 #4 Road To Heaven
BR7 #10 Sweet Adaline
BR7 #12 Galtero
BR8 #2 Fortensky
BR8 #9 Double Superlative
BR8 #12 Good Time Charlie

Offline fours

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« 2018-Sep-29, 11:39 AM Reply #38 »
Wenona,

Could you provide a weekl update oyur bank progress - in the header if you like.

If its embarrassing just say that...

Fours

Offline Wenona

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« 2018-Sep-29, 01:59 PM Reply #39 »
The picks are all double figures or more - only 1 winner so far - behind the win in front the place I'd say.

I was going to give it three months so there a few more selections before being embarrassed - but I promise to take my medicine if it's due.  :shy:

Edit - 7 qualifiers at $11+ plus today for 2 big priced placegetters .. BR7 #10 Sweet Adaline & BR8 #9 Double Superlative but alas the big winner still eludes me.
« Last Edit: 2018-Sep-29, 09:36 PM by Wenona »

Offline ratsack

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« 2018-Sep-29, 10:03 PM Reply #40 »
nothing like putting up before the event . Well done Wenona
some on here could do the same  lol

Offline Wenona

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« 2018-Oct-01, 12:50 PM Reply #41 »
OK I'll post the $11+ results ans take my medicine ...... just so I can gloat when that inevitable $80 winner arrives  :shy:


Offline Wenona

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« 2018-Oct-01, 12:57 PM Reply #42 »
52110  $11.80 $83.42
DateSelectionWin$Place$CameWinRetPlaceRet
04-Aug-18BR3 #11 Bronzed Venom 14.694.433rd 4.43
04-Aug-18BR5 #5 Magstock12.002.67x  
04-Aug-18BR6 #3 Sacred Rebel12.503.05x  
04-Aug-18BR6 #8 Kubis 17.504.26x  
04-Aug-18BR7 #17 Zendane39.218.17x  
04-Aug-18BR9 #9 Nothing Box 164.6714.744th  
11-Aug-18BR4 #7 Meet Mr Taylor11.282.50Won11.282.50
11-Aug-18BR4 #12 I am Venus 17.553.444th  
11-Aug-18BR7 #5 Bold Shot28.297.10x  
11-Aug-18BR8 #5 Cosmic Engine44.007.80x  
11-Aug-18BR9 #7 Conquering Lass 11.003.15x  
15-Aug-18BR3 #4 Zumikon17.507.40x  
15-Aug-18BR7 #12 La Vida Loca14.912.76x  
15-Aug-18BR7 #13 Stella Power30.454.33x  
15-Aug-18BR8 #9 Red Hearts13.853.634th  
18-Aug-18BR3 #9 Girl In A Million18.504.344th  
18-Aug-18BR4 #9 Clever Blaze16.094.39x  
18-Aug-18BR6 #10 Reiby The Red87.7814.00x  
18-Aug-18BR7 #13 Licitra29.006.16x  
18-Aug-18BR7 #14 Soft Top40.007.744th  
18-Aug-18BR8 #15 Nothing Box61.1113.504th  
18-Aug-18BR9 #1 Daring Deeds14.024.10x  
18-Aug-18BR9 #15 Time To Play16.884.50x  
25-Aug-18BR2 #7 Good Time Charlie19.404.583rd 4.58
25-Aug-18BR8 #12 Benfica Princess38.008.203rd 8.20
01-Sep-18BR6 #8 Meteorologist11.083.07x  
01-Sep-18BR7 #7 Volkoff28.205.25   
01-Sep-18BR8 #6 Rhyming16.894.47x  
01-Sep-18BR8 #7 Comic Story13.053.803rd 3.80
01-Sep-18BR8 #14 Treasure Gallery91.3911.50x  
01-Sep-18BR9 #13 Courage Within150.7921.482nd 21.48
01-Sep-18BR9 #14 Namib36.556.03   
08-Sep-18BR2 #6 Divine Dice11.183.402nd 3.40
08-Sep-18BR7 #10 Lucky Tom24.005.80x  
08-Sep-18BR9 #15 Romney's Choice32.426.60   
15-Sep-18BR5 #6 Umberto16.414.30x  
15-Sep-18BR6 #12 Pedway23.005.40x  
15-Sep-18BR6 #16 Aggravate18.424.87x  
15-Sep-18BR7 #7 Glendara126.2413.533rd 13.53
15-Sep-18BR8 #4 Old Habits24.115.55x  
15-Sep-18BR9 #5 Polemic23.325.40x  
22-Sep-18BR2 #3 Sorority Sister116.2613.57x  
22-Sep-18BR3 #4 So Skilled35.763.53x  
22-Sep-18BR6 #11 Phabeni17.704.02x  
22-Sep-18BR7 #4 Fortenski13.003.094th  
29-Sep-18BR3 #2 Polemic17.003.51x  
29-Sep-18BR3 #12 Romakash80.0010.004th  
29-Sep-18BR5 #3 Paradis Imperial36.986.99x  
29-Sep-18BR5 #14 Aultbea26.425.70x  
29-Sep-18BR7 #10 Sweet Adaline60.8911.002nd 11.00
29-Sep-18BR8 #9 Double Superlative60.0010.503rd 10.50
29-Sep-18BR8 #12 Good Time Charlie17.023.60  

So 52 selections at $11+ for only 1 winner. Total of 10 placegetters including the winner and 8 fourths.

On 52 selections - win return is $11.80  but place return is $83.42.

I back them all straight out and usually have a place bet if I can get say $7+ - so the place returns have been very welcome.

As mentioned when I started historically the ROI gets higher as the SP increases but obviously the variance increase.

Looking at the selections so far - if you just take the selections that started $34+ you see the following results :

1705  $0 $64.71
DateSelectionWin$Place$CameWinRetPlaceRet
04-Aug-18BR7 #17 Zendane39.218.17x  
04-Aug-18BR9 #9 Nothing Box 164.6714.744th  
11-Aug-18BR8 #5 Cosmic Engine44.007.80x  
18-Aug-18BR6 #10 Reiby The Red87.7814.00x  
18-Aug-18BR7 #14 Soft Top40.007.744th  
18-Aug-18BR8 #15 Nothing Box61.1113.504th  
25-Aug-18BR8 #12 Benfica Princess38.008.203rd 8.20
01-Sep-18BR8 #14 Treasure Gallery91.3911.50x  
01-Sep-18BR9 #13 Courage Within150.7921.482nd 21.48
01-Sep-18BR9 #14 Namib36.556.03   
15-Sep-18BR7 #7 Glendara126.2413.533rd 13.53
22-Sep-18BR2 #3 Sorority Sister116.2613.57x  
22-Sep-18BR3 #4 So Skilled35.763.53x  
29-Sep-18BR3 #12 Romakash80.0010.004th  
29-Sep-18BR5 #3 Paradis Imperial36.986.99x  
29-Sep-18BR7 #10 Sweet Adaline60.8911.002nd 11.00
29-Sep-18BR8 #9 Double Superlative60.0010.503rd 10.50

No winners in 17 selections but 5 placegetters ($64.71 return) and 9 of the 17 finishing first four.

Maybe someone could think of a way of betting that involves taking roughies to finish 4th.  ;)
« Last Edit: 2018-Oct-01, 01:52 PM by Wenona »

Offline pegasyber

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« 2018-Oct-06, 08:53 AM Reply #43 »
   Pretty sure FOURS gave a plan for betting four Fourth and if he can spare the time with an example in the Bart Cummings race 7 at Flemington today it would be a great help. I will supply the roughie which would be my Mechanical Bet in that race which should come fourth at any old price.

  I.E.  Flemington Race  7  #  4  ZACADA.

   One of the great benefits of a Mechanical Type method system is that once you have settled on the point in the race that provides just the one number, without any more thought, then that is the bet. Q.E.D.

« Last Edit: 2018-Oct-06, 09:02 AM by pegasyber »

Offline Wenona

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« 2018-Oct-06, 10:34 AM Reply #44 »
Qualifiers:

BR4 #3 Rich Affair
BR4 #5 Bryneich
BR4 #7 Cambodian Prince
BR4 #9 Lulu Express
BR5 #3 Niccanova
BR6 #8 Just Orm
BR8 #7 Diamonds Are
BR9 #6 Zofonic Dancer

Offline fours

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« 2018-Oct-06, 02:15 PM Reply #45 »
4th and ff's

If one puts real work in and keeps accurate records than progress will be made ..... as long as ..... you let 'that which hurts' teach you to improve things.

To start you off read on permutations, ask your self what % of races do the favs finish in the quin spots and so on. The profits may not happen where you think they will happen.

Be prepared to cast aside pre-existing prejudices. If you don't than little progress will be made.

Fours

an eg too start the learning process is 1/f/f/4 and f/1/f/4 for 90 combos each so it can be done for $2  - could justify $8 the place and $2 first four per $10  or more on the first four if the % for fourth holds up - it is unlikely to however. This is a flawed start as the combos are too wide - but just a place to start.
« Last Edit: 2018-Oct-06, 02:30 PM by fours »

Offline fours

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« 2018-Oct-06, 04:05 PM Reply #46 »
Wenona,

So far you would have outlaid $20 ( 2 horses in race 4 for 1 4th and the fav won the race - first four paid $1,694.30 ) and received back $30.24 s the $1 ff of fav/f/f/3 for rich affair 4th had only 56 combos giving you 1.7857%

This gives you a both a better strike rate AND a better return overall.

Something some in the past have said is impossible here in the past.

Obviously with some of your other picks for that race also in the FF you could have dramtically improved that return for the same outlay.

Fours
not my thread so this is the last from me.


Offline Wenona

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« 2018-Oct-13, 10:38 AM Reply #47 »
Quals:

BR2 #5 Zafonic Dancer
BR3 #6 Old Habits
BR3 #9 Stanley
BR4 #6 Dream Kisses
BR5 #2 Hi I'm Back
BR5 #5 Sunny Victory
BR7 #11 Givus A Cuddle
BR8 #4 Bella Occhi
BR9 #10 Saint Patricks Day


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