Mechanical Systems - Betting, Tips & Ratings - Racehorse TALK harm-plan

Racehorse TALK



Mechanical Systems - Betting, Tips & Ratings - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: Mechanical Systems  (Read 15065 times)

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Online Wenona

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« 2018-Oct-22, 08:23 AM Reply #50 »
Yes for the first few weeks the Qld and NSW TAB's had the identical offer. I backed both sides and balanced on betfair needed 2 bonuses out of 15 games to make a profit.

Last season 29% of games had a team lead at a quarter and lose and the strike rate was higher than that at the start of the season.

Stats from last year (there's an error of 1 game somewhere)

CollectsGames     
Home Collects3625714.0%    
Away Collects3925715.2%29.2%   
        
    CollectCollect  
 CollectsGames HomeAway  
Home Fav Games4414829.7%162810.8%18.9%
Home Dog Games258629.1%17819.8%9.3%
Home Pk Games62326.1%3313.0%13.0%
        
All Favourites2423410.3%    
All Dogs4523419.2%   

A further breakdown showed the only games that need to be avoided were games where the home favourite was more than a 13 point favourite.

NSW now only pays the bonus if you lead in the last quarter and lose and the Qld Tab has banned me from bonuses.  :(

« Last Edit: 2018-Oct-22, 08:44 AM by Wenona »

Offline arthur

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« 2019-Feb-11, 10:56 AM Reply #51 »
Anybody who blindly follows ratings when making their selections should be aware that  . .

Allround Glory (MKY R3H1  12 Feb) rating on most (all?) sites is completely wrong

They must play 'follow the leader'

Online JWesleyHarding

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« 2019-Feb-11, 11:21 AM Reply #52 »
What ratings ( figures & sources) are we talking here?

Offline arthur

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« 2019-Feb-11, 11:29 AM Reply #53 »
R&S . . Predicted rating 5.0

S-B . . U-Bet et al . . 75 on 100 point scale

Likely R&S made a typo and other programs blindly followed

Online JWesleyHarding

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« 2019-Feb-11, 11:45 AM Reply #54 »
NSW tab shows Sky 100

Offline arthur

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« 2019-Feb-11, 11:55 AM Reply #55 »
NSW tab shows Sky 100

Which would be correct . . They mustn't pinch R&S

Online fours

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« 2019-Feb-11, 01:06 PM Reply #56 »
Rating followers...

Are there any?

I only ask as the number of 40/1 plus winners that are rated on top by one rating provider or more staggers belief!

Wizard in particular was great and R&S no slouch either

Fours

Offline arthur

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« 2019-Feb-13, 02:59 PM Reply #57 »
G'Day Fours

Hope you included the Jester. He was my price yesterday (half a loaf is better than no bread), loves MKY and well spotted by R&S @ about 3.6

I also got 4.1 with a price boost about ARG prepost with my new 'mate Ned (Kelly??)

Online fours

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« 2019-Feb-13, 03:19 PM Reply #58 »
arthur,

I don't follow them for ever so it was all yours.

Fours

Online Wenona

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« 2020-Oct-17, 11:23 AM Reply #59 »
Only really bet on greyhounds these days, but I revisited a mechanical system I previously spent a lot of time on last week and found it has been still going strong over the last twelve months. Premise is runners meet certain criteria and if those runners are ranked first in the race based on a second criteria you need $8 to back them otherwise you need $11 to back them. For fun I'll dust it off and run it publicly for six months. Warning - lots of losing runs but some big prices winners.

I'll start with $1,500 and bet 1% of days starting bank (rounded down to whole dollar) on each runner at Betfair SP with the minimum required price.  (real money   :biggrin: ) :x:

So .... $15 Win on each of these at required price.

DateTrackRaceNoHorseReqd
17-Oct-20Doomben38Music Award$11.00
17-Oct-20Doomben39Syncline$11.00
17-Oct-20Doomben44Torrens$8.00
17-Oct-20Doomben53Clockwise$11.00
17-Oct-20Doomben58Air Spirit$11.00
17-Oct-20Doomben510Explosive Quality$11.00
17-Oct-20Doomben67Trusty Lad$11.00
17-Oct-20Doomben611Don't Stop$11.00
17-Oct-20Doomben612Nic Nat Nui$8.00
17-Oct-20Doomben73Lotta Creek Gold$8.00
17-Oct-20Doomben78Testashadow$11.00
17-Oct-20Doomben83Stravirgo$11.00
17-Oct-20Doomben85Jackpot Jay$8.00
17-Oct-20Doomben86Royal Hale$11.00
17-Oct-20Doomben88Colpo Di Tamburo$11.00
17-Oct-20Doomben810Great Keppell$11.00
17-Oct-20Doomben99Fasano$11.00
17-Oct-20Doomben911Mountbatten$8.00
« Last Edit: 2020-Oct-17, 11:45 AM by Wenona »

Online fours

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« 2020-Oct-18, 10:47 AM Reply #60 »
Wenona,

One of my mechanical systems picked up Taxagano Ascot r8 at 100/1.

Not a cent on it of course as had a life at the time.

Fours

Online Wenona

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« 2020-Oct-18, 12:57 PM Reply #61 »
   Results to Date      
           $1,500.00
DateTrackRaceNoHorseReqdSPBetCame +/- Bank
17-Oct-20Doomben38Music Award$11.00$132.22$15.000($15.00) $1,485.00
17-Oct-20Doomben44Torrens$8.00$29.00$15.000($15.00) $1,470.00
17-Oct-20Doomben53Clockwise$11.00$19.46$15.000($15.00) $1,455.00
17-Oct-20Doomben73Lotta Creek Gold$8.00$66.91$15.000($15.00) $1,440.00
17-Oct-20Doomben78Testashadow$11.00$11.50$15.002($15.00) $1,425.00
17-Oct-20Doomben85Jackpot Jay$8.00$17.00$15.000($15.00) $1,410.00
17-Oct-20Doomben88Colpo Di Tamburo$11.00$14.06$15.000($15.00) $1,395.00
17-Oct-20Doomben910Mountbatten$8.00$12.72$15.000($15.00) $1,380.00

Online PoisonPen7

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« 2020-Oct-18, 01:23 PM Reply #62 »
Stick with it Wenona and good luck   emthup

Online Wenona

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« 2020-Oct-18, 08:20 PM Reply #63 »
Thanks, the backed runners had a combined percentage of 40% so not much grief in the results yet. Ideally you'd have less on the $100 and $66 selections but I just wanted a set and forget methodology.

Online fours

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« 2020-Oct-18, 08:39 PM Reply #64 »
Wenona,

I was down around 30 units before th 100/1 hit. No money down just tracking.

Its the nature of the beast once you go longer prices.

Fours

Online Wenona

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« 7 hours ago Reply #65 »
$13 on these at the price.

DateTrackRaceNoHorseReqd
24-Oct-20Doomben15Gin 'N' Bitters$8.00
24-Oct-20Doomben32Ziemba$11.00
24-Oct-20Doomben510Checkmate Lad$11.00
24-Oct-20Doomben511Ocean Treaty$8.00
24-Oct-20Doomben79Fisticuffs$11.00
24-Oct-20Doomben712Kubrick$8.00
24-Oct-20Doomben95Desert Lord$11.00
24-Oct-20Doomben910Emerald Kingdom$8.00

Online Wenona

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« 53 minutes ago Reply #66 »
With the late scratching of Kubrick - 314 Unguarded becomes a selection (I eliminate runners starting wider than barrier 12)

More than 30 minutes to go as races put back so I'll post it  ......

24-Oct-20Doomben714Unguarded$8.00

Online PoisonPen7

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« 26 minutes ago Reply #68 »
TAB showing race 7 as ABND  :(


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