The Schedule of Betting Deductions which apply after a late scratching are heavily biased towards the Bookmaker. They are 10% higher than if you placed the same bet on a TAB than when a Bookmaker is betting at a market percentage of 117% (equivalent to the TAB with a 14.5% win commission), and it gets progressively worse as their betting market percentage increases.
In saturdays Caulfield Cup where the Bookmakers were betting at 119% on start time the subsequent scratchings and biased deductions basically changed this to a 129% market whereas the TAB stays at 117%.
A 117% market equates to a punter getting $1.71 about either Heads or Tails if the event was a coin toss, compared to $2.00 in a 100% market, or in a tote pool if there was no commission. In a 129% market you are effectively taking $1.55 about a true even money chance. There is a significant difference between $1.71 and $1.55 for an even money chance.
To provide an example of this bias, consider the following race with six runners and the Bookmakers and TAB's betting an identical 117% market;
Commission @ 14.5%
Now with the even money favourite scratched and no new investment it becomes;
If you had backed the subsequent winner on the TAB you collect $4.28 which is equivalent to a betting deduction of 42.7 cents in the dollar. The official deduction when an even money winner is scratched is 47 cents in the dollar, therefore if you had backed the subsequent winner with a Bookmaker your equivalent dividend is $3.96.
In Saturdays Caulfield Cup the deductions were 39c ($2.40) Maldivian and 9c ($10) Eskimo Queen. The Bookies were betting at 119% (fair dinkum) and IAS's thursday night market was at 130% (criminal). Master O'Reilly was $9.50 and with subsequent deductions this ends up $4.94 whereas he paid $5.30, $5.60 and $5.20 on the three TAB's.
Punters ripped off to the tune of hundreds of thousands of dollars.
(Whilst it is highly unlikely that I am incorrect , you never know, therefore I would appreciate it if someone would check both the logic and calc's)
DD, nothing fair about gullible people having a bet into a market of 200%. They are betting them 2/1 about a 5/1 chance. Very few of them would take 2/1 about throwing a six with a dice, bemusing that they do so on horses.
I would love a committee to make it a condition on bookies that they cannot take a bet unless they are beneath a certain market percentage, which would vary depending on the race eg 140% for a 3yo Maiden race 125% for a Group One race etc. IMO not difficult to monitor and enforce. No committee would let the bloke selling icecreams charge $20 and ripoff their patrons and I can't see the difference.
As Tim has advised when there is a late scratching but still time to bet, the computerised boards nowadays automatically readjust all prices to the same market percentage at the time of the scratching. Therefore the fairest method of calculating deductions is one where there is no disadvantage to someone who has backed a horse before the late scratching compared to someone backing the same horse after the late scratching. Therefore deductions should be calculated on the basis of whatever the market percentage was at the time of the scratching with an allowance in the bookmakers favour of say 5% for the "layed market".
Tim's point on the long run test, of whether the sum of returned stakes approximates the sum of deductions retained is a red herring designed to confuse administrators. It would never be measured and is totally dependent on the book each bookie makes - what if every bookie had never layed the late scratching. Refunds to punters who backed a late scratching is only returning their money. All that needs to be done with them is to give them their money back and leave them out of the arguement.
I will run some numbers as you suggest and see what comes up but what should be in place is a schedule of deductions for various increments of market percentage and a law to prevent bookmakers taking bets above set market percentages.<o:p></o:p>
Tattersalls' rules - Bets on horseracing are governed by 'Tattersalls' Rules of Betting', and form the basis for these rules. These rules or an official announcement by the Tattersalls' Committee will govern the settlement of bets should a situation occur not covered by these rules. Late Withdrawals - Where a horse is withdrawn before coming under starter's orders, or is officially deemed by the starter to have taken no part in the race and the market has not been reformed, stakes on the withdrawn horse will be returned and winning bets will be subject to deductions in accordance with Tattersalls' rule 4c. The rate of deduction will be based on the following scale. Price At Time Of Withdrawal/Deduction in the pound; <o:p></o:p>
1. 1/9 or shorter (1.11 or shorter) 90p <o:p></o:p>
2. 2/11 to 2/17 (1.18 to 1.12) 85p <o:p></o:p>
3. 1/4 to 1/5 (1.25 to 1.20) 80p <o:p></o:p>
4. 3/10 to 2/7 (1.30 to 1.29) 75p <o:p></o:p>
5. 2/5 to 1/3 (1.40 to 1.33) 70p <o:p></o:p>
6. 8/15 to 4/9 (1.53 to 1.44) 65p <o:p></o:p>
7. 8/13 to 4/7 (1.61 to 1.57) 60p <o:p></o:p>
8. 4/5 to 4/6 (1.80 to 1.66) 55p <o:p></o:p>
9. 20/21 to 5/6 (1.95 to 1.83) 50p <o:p></o:p>
10. Evs to 6/5 (2.00 to 2.20) 45p <o:p></o:p>
11. 5/4 to 6/4 (2.25 to 2.50) 40p <o:p></o:p>
12. 13/8 to 7/4 (2.62 to 2.75) 35p <o:p></o:p>
13. 15/8 to 9/4 (2.87 to 3.25) 30p <o:p></o:p>
14. 5/2 to 3/1 (3.50 to 4.00) 25p <o:p></o:p>
15. 10/3 to 4/1 (4.33 to 5.00) 20p <o:p></o:p>
16. 9/2 to 11/2 (5.50 to 6.50) 15p <o:p></o:p>
17. 6/1 to 9/1 (7.00 to 10.00) 10p <o:p></o:p>
18. 10/1 to 14/1 (11.00 to 15.00) 5p <o:p></o:p>
19. over 14/1 over 15.00 no deductions <o:p></o:p>
In the event of two or more horses being withdrawn from the same race before coming under Starter's orders, the total deductions shall not exceed 90p in £. Should a horse be withdrawn and a new market formed, then any bets laid at a price prior to the new show will be subject to the above deductions. The above scale will also apply to non runners in early price races. The deduction in such cases will be determined by the price of the withdrawn horse at the time the bet was struck. Any other event where deductions in line with Tattersalls rule 4c apply will also be subject to the above scale. Place Terms - The place part of each way bets will be settled in accordance with the number of runners taking part in that race as follows:
Mr Sanders said the discussed matters would be referred to the Australian Racing Board for their consideration
Extract from Chief Stewards Conference Report QRL website 5Feb
Be good if they invite punters to see and comment on proposal before implementing it.Wouldn't hold my breath tho.It would be a first