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Stayers Ratings - Betting, Tips & Ratings - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: Stayers Ratings  (Read 60207 times)

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Online Authorized

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« 2015-Nov-05, 11:34 AM Reply #375 »
Didn't do any ratings yesterday because of all the unexposed form and the way the track played on Saturday.

Wishing I did now.

That winner was "backable" if you left out all the horses with unexposed form. I think there is a lot of hype on these travelling stayers.

Retrospectively, the winner has rated 66 on the back of a 67 rating in the MV Cups past two years.

Horse Best Prior Race Yesterday
Prince Of Penzance 67 2014 MV Cup, 2015 MV Cup 66
Criterion 72 2015 QE2 (Sydney) 69.5
Trip To Paris 67 2015 Caulfield Cup 66
Gust Of Wind 60.5 2015 Caulfield Cup 61.5
Excess Knowledge 66.5 2015 Lexus 61
The Offer 67 2015 Bendigo Cup 63.5
Our Ivanhowe 66.5 2015 Caulfield Cup 65
Who Shot Thebarman 63.5 2014 Melbourne Cup 63.5

What do the post race ratings tell you ?


Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2015-Nov-05, 11:41 AM Reply #376 »
What do the post race ratings tell you ?


That those with exposed form pretty much rated what they were expected to rate. And that Prince Of Penzance wasn't that far off them and 100-1 was good value if you were to ignore the unexposed form.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2015-Nov-05, 11:46 AM Reply #377 »
While I have this thread open and  FWIW, the Oaks today   :biggrin:

No Last 10 Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight Rating
4 2x31131 AMBIENCE John O'Shea James McDonald 10 55.5 63
2 2341x3321 JAMEKA Ciaron Maher Damien Oliver 8 55.5 60
6 035x62314 DAWNIE PERFECT Clarry Conners Jim Cassidy 2 55.5 60
5 8x4211222 HONESTA John P Thompson Craig Williams 12 55.5 59
1 1141x2544 PASADENA GIRL (NZ) Peter G Moody Hugh Bowman 5 55.5 58
11 6105 DULVERTON Robert Smerdon Dwayne Dunn 3 55.5 57.5
3 1221 SACRED EYE David Hayes & Tom Dabernig Ryan Moore 9 55.5 57
8 34x273513 MUZYKA Gerald Ryan Brenton Avdulla 1 55.5 57
10 36x729375 ZARABEEL (NZ) Leon & Troy Corstens Stephen Baster 7 55.5 56
9 4342138 RITZY Anthony Cummings Kerrin McEvoy 6 55.5 55
12 896x57550 PRINCESS ARIA Marc Conners Michael Walker 11 55.5 54.5
7 0x521x0769 THE GREY FLASH Robbie Laing Chris Parnham 4 55.5 54

I'm hoping Dulverton can make up those lengths on the good run we saw at Geelong.

Ambience was brilliant on Saturday. Just wondering if she can reproduce today. Not a fan of the quick backup from that particular stable.

Online Authorized

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« 2015-Nov-07, 09:24 AM Reply #378 »
That those with exposed form pretty much rated what they were expected to rate. And that Prince Of Penzance wasn't that far off them and 100-1 was good value if you were to ignore the unexposed form.

So what are the ratings of the field after the race ?


Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2015-Nov-07, 10:31 AM Reply #379 »
So what are the ratings of the field after the race ?


Finish No Horse Trainer Jockey Margin Bar. Weight Starting Price Rating Rank
1 19 PRINCE OF PENZANCE Darren Weir Ms Michelle Payne
1 53 $101.00 68 4
2 8 MAX DYNAMITE William Mullins Frankie Dettori 0.5 2 55 $13.00 69.5 2
3 2 CRITERION David Hayes & Tom Dabernig Michael Walker 1.25 4 57.5 $19.00 71.25 1
4 10 TRIP TO PARIS Ed Dunlop Tommy Berry 2 14 55 $6.00 68 4
5 5 BIG ORANGE Michael Bell Jamie Spencer 2.4 23 55.5 $61.00 68.1 3
6 24 GUST OF WIND John Sargent Chad Schofield 2.6 19 51 $41.00 63.4 13
7 23 EXCESS KNOWLEDGE Gai Waterhouse Kerrin McEvoy 3.1 24 51 $31.00 62.9 14
8 13 THE OFFER Gai Waterhouse Damien Oliver 3.3 13 54 $31.00 65.7 8
9 16 QUEST FOR MORE Roger Charlton Damian Lane 3.8 21 53.5 $81.00 64.7 10
10 4 OUR IVANHOWE Lee & Anthony Freedman Ben Melham 3.9 22 56 $21.00 67.1 6
11 11 WHO SHOT THEBARMAN Chris Waller Blake Shinn 4 6 54.5 $21.00 65.5 9
12 21 SERTORIUS Jamie Edwards Craig Newitt 4.75 5 52.5 $101.00 62.75 15
13 3 FAME GAME Yoshitada Munakata Zac Purton 5.5 12 57 $5.00 66.5 7
14 22 THE UNITED STATES Robert Hickmott Joao Moreira 5.7 3 50 $21.00 59.3 19
15 6 HARTNELL John O'Shea James McDonald 5.9 17 55.5 $31.00 64.6 11
16 20 BONDI BEACH Aidan O'Brien Brett Prebble 6.2 18 52.5 $21.00 61.3 16
17 7 HOKKO BRAVE Yasutoshi Matsunaga Craig Williams 6.4 20 55.5 $41.00 64.1 12
18 17 ALMOONQITH David Hayes & Tom Dabernig Dwayne Dunn 6.9 10 52 $17.00 60.1 18
19 18 KINGFISHER Aidan O'Brien Colm O'Donoghue 7 9 53 $61.00 61 17
20 15 PREFERMENT Chris Waller Hugh Bowman 14 11 53.5 $9.00 54.5 21
21 14 GRAND MARSHAL Chris Waller Jim Cassidy 14.75 15 53.5 $61.00 53.75 22
22 12 SKY HUNTER Saeed Bin Suroor William Buick 16 7 54 $31.00 53 23
23 1 SNOW SKY Sir Michael Stoute Ryan Moore 18.25 16 58 $51.00 54.75 20
100 9 RED CADEAUX Ed Dunlop Gerald Mosse 0L 8 55 $26.00 NA

No adjustments made for interference, slow pace, etc.

Ya need anything else Auth from this "Dumb Ace"?   :biggrin:

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2015-Nov-07, 10:45 AM Reply #380 »
Gotta say mate, I'm not a fan of ratings unless you can adjust them as they never show the merit in a run.

I'm not a massive weights and measures fan so no way in gods earth and it be explained, to me that The Offer, Hartnell, Hokko, Big O or Paris ran better than Gust of Wind

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« 2015-Nov-07, 10:53 AM Reply #381 »
Gotta say mate, I'm not a fan of ratings unless you can adjust them as they never show the merit in a run.

I'm not a massive weights and measures fan so no way in gods earth and it be explained, to me that The Offer, Hartnell, Hokko, Big O or Paris ran better than Gust of Wind

What on earth does that mean ?

Put the time and effort into calculating the ground and momentum these horses lost.

Hokko Brave was just as unlucky if not more as Gust Of Wind. He carried 4.5 kgs more ( minus the sex allowance ) and she beat him 4 lengths.


Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2015-Nov-07, 11:02 AM Reply #382 »
Gotta say mate, I'm not a fan of ratings unless you can adjust them as they never show the merit in a run.

I'm not a massive weights and measures fan so no way in gods earth and it be explained, to me that The Offer, Hartnell, Hokko, Big O or Paris ran better than Gust of Wind

When assessing the ratings for an upcoming race, I take the best past rating and look for a reason the horse won't achieve that.

Gust Of Wind's rating is low because it only carried 51 kg. You could add a length or two for interference when recording the ratings for that race, but it is only a guess, and ultimately with a set of ratings from it's history the best one will come through. No point wasting your time IMO.

Especially the case with stayers. You are looking for it's peak past performance. Any unlucky run will be cancelled out by other performances where it wasn't unlucky.

We will have to disagree on weights and measures. I think they are the most interesting part of form assessment.

Offline wily ole dog

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« 2015-Nov-07, 12:38 PM Reply #383 »

We will have to disagree on weights and measures. I think they are the most interesting part of form assessment.


I agree they are to a point but I really find it hard to believe that GOW would run any slower if she carried 52kg instead  $51kg. She's over 500kg herself.
Most ratings would have her running 1 length slower, I can't cop that

Offline Wenona

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« 2015-Nov-08, 03:07 PM Reply #384 »
When they weigh Formula 1 cars to ensure they don't sneak a kilo of weight out of the car I can live with the physics of a horse being advantaged by carrying a kilo less in the Cup.


Offline The Carnegie Express

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« 2015-Nov-08, 09:07 PM Reply #385 »

I agree they are to a point but I really find it hard to believe that GOW would run any slower if she carried 52kg instead  $51kg. She's over 500kg herself.
Most ratings would have her running 1 length slower, I can't cop that
[/quote

So true. Carrying top weight a different story.

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2016-Apr-07, 08:55 AM Reply #386 »
Race 7 - 3:15PM SCHWEPPES SYDNEY CUP (3200 METRES)

Of $2,000,000.1st $1,200,000, 2nd $375,000, 3rd $175,000, 4th $87,500, 5th $50,000, 6th $37,500, 7th $37,500, 8th $37,500 GROUP 1
Handicap, Minimum Weight 50kg, Three-Years-Old and Upwards, Weight Raised 1kg, Apprentices cannot claim.

Field Limit: 16 + 4 EM


The four highlighted are the ones I see as value. Libran is rated on top but there is no value in the current price IMO

No Last 10 Horse Best Best Rate Adj Wgt Adj Net Points Perc Chance Value (25%) Prepost
1 58701x9032 WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (NZ) 2015 Sydney Cup 68.5
-6 62.5 5 12.20% $10.25 $3.50
2 067101x906 ALMOONQITH (USA) 2015 Sandown Cup 68
-4.5 63.5 7 17.07% $7.32 $9.50
3 75003x0853 GRAND MARSHAL (GB) 2015 Sydney Cup 66
-4 62 4 9.76% $12.81 $4.20
4 x1x6x34111 LIBRAN (IRE) 2016 Chaimans Hcp 69 -2 -2 65 10 24.39% $5.13 $3.50
5 150311x474 AUVRAY (FR) 2016 Randwick Stks LR 62.5
-2 60.5 1 2.44% $51.25 $26.00
6 5x69x31145 DESTINY’S KISS 2016 Aust Day Cup 68 -5 -1.5 61.5 3 7.32% $17.08 $21.00
7 x0x0069x03 GALLANTE (IRE) 2016 Manion Cup 63.5
-0.5 63 6 14.63% $8.54 $11.00
8 8x900x7723 CAFE SOCIETY (FR) 2016 Chaimans Hcp 64.5 -2
62.5 5 12.20% $10.25 $11.00
9 000544x978 LIKE A CAROUSEL 2015 Sandown Cup 60

60
0.00%

10 211246x326 DEE I CEE (NZ) 2016 BM85 61.5 -2
59.5
0.00%

11 151042x451 BAYANOVA (NZ) 2016 BM84 59 -2
57
0.00%








TOTAL 41 100.00%

« Last Edit: 2016-Apr-07, 08:58 AM by PoisonPen7 »

Offline PoisonPen7

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« 2017-Apr-07, 09:17 PM Reply #387 »
Race 8 - 3:55PM SCHWEPPES SYDNEY CUP (3200 METRES)

Of $2,000,000.1st $1,170,000, 2nd $380,000, 3rd $200,000, 4th $90,000, 5th $50,000, 6th $20,000, 7th $20,000, 8th $20,000, 9th $15,000, 10th $15,000, Equine Welfare Fund $20,000. GROUP 1

Handicap, Minimum Weight 50.5kg, Three-Years-Old and Upwards, Weight Raised 1.5kg, Apprentices cannot claim.

Track Type: Turf

Field Limit: 20 + 4 EM


No Horse Barrier Weight Best Rating Race Wgt Adj Other Adj Reason Net Rating Dist To Winner
10 PENGLAI PAVILION (USA) 6 52 72 via Almandin, Hearbreak City -0.5

71.5 0
7 BIG DUKE (IRE) 5 52 67.5 2017 Chairmans Hcp -0.5

67 4.5
9 MISTER IMPATIENCE (GB) 2 52 65.5 2016 Wellington Cup -0.5

65 6.5
11 KINEMA (IRE) 7 52 67.5 2016 Flemington BM96 -0.5 -2 class 65 6.5
14 POLARISATION (GB) 11 51.5 63 Estimate 0

65 6.5
4 TALLY 8 55 68 2017 Mornington Cup -3.5

64.5 7
5 ASSIGN (IRE) 9 53.5 65 2016 Herbert Power -2

63 8.5
12 PENTATHLON (NZ) 10 51.5 63 2016 Wellington Cup 0

63 8.5
13 VENGEUR MASQUE (IRE) 14 51.5 63 2017 Mornington Cup 0

63 8.5
8 ANNUS MIRABILIS (IRE) 1 52 63 2017 Adelaide Cup -0.5

62.5 9
1 WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (NZ) 4 57 67 2016 Sydney Cup -5.5

61.5 10
2 LIBRAN (IRE) 13 56.5 66.5 2016 Sydney Cup -5

61.5 10
6 CHANCE TO DANCE (IRE) 12 53 63 2017 Adelaide Cup -1.5

61.5 10
3 ALMOONQITH (USA) 3 56 65.5 2016 Melbourne Cup -4.5

61 10.5


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