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Your Do's and Don'ts of Punting - Betting, Tips & Ratings - Racehorse TALK

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Offline westie

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O.P. « 2009-Jan-07, 10:15 PM »
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From: NineMSN Nickname-triple-seven-  (Original Message) Sent: 26/02/2002 9:20 PM
From time to time over the last 18 months or so there have been some great (in my opinion) threads that opened and generated discussion about "Your Do's and Don'ts of Punting". Given that it has probably been quite a while since such a thread, and that there are many new faces here since the last one, I thought that it may have been worth kicking one off again.
 
I guess all of this is a personal thing. Your own learning, education and experience - the old school of hard knocks. Maybe the sharing of a little here across this thread may generate some quality discussion that we all may learn a little from. With out naming names there are already regular contributors to this forum that do just that. On thinking about starting this, I grabbed some old notes that I had printed out from previous discussions, and it looked to me to be maybe two areas of discussion.
 
1. How you bet. The personal / golden rules that many may follow.
Past discussion had noted;
 
Use a sensible maney management approach.
Keeping written records. Keep as much detail about every wager as possible, and review and learn.
Never betting on credit.
Never borrowing money to bet with.
Staking plans.
Certain betting days.
 
2. Form review / selection and what you then bet on.
Past discussion had noted;
 
Back markers are bad news, leaders / on pacers control everything including their own luck.
Weight will stop a train.
Less weight won't make all horses run faster.
Jockeys can be important.
Barriers.
Number or starts, age and class of race are important.
Know what Class is - for both races and horses
What sort of form do you use, and how do you use it.
Some stick with systems.
Does one length beaten = 1.36kg or  2.3kg ?
Believe in your own judgement.
Do not listen to media influence.
Be selective.
 
I noted the above hopefully to generate further discussion. Welcome your input.

Offline westie

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« 2009-Jan-07, 10:17 PM Reply #1 »
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From: NineMSN NicknameLuskin_Star© Sent: 26/02/2002 9:37 PM
1. Never borrow money to bet with or use a credit card to fund your punting
2. Never take a tip
3. Never give a tip
4. Record every bet, keep a record of your punting statistics
5. Never listen to trainers, jockeys, owners, tipsters i.e. listen to no one but yourself
6. Always have confidence in your own selections
7. Never bet in Maiden races
8. Never allow your heart to rule your head
9. Never back a horse ridden by G J Childs
10. Never back a horse trained by B J Cummings or G A Rogerson
 
 
Great thread tripleseven.

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From: NineMSN Nicknamegintara™ Sent: 26/02/2002 10:19 PM
  • Don't bet in maidens or early season 2 year old races
  • Only bet on Metrop race tracks / or Wednesday , Saturday etc
  • never ever chase money.........there are 8 winners next time they go around
  • don't bet in hurdle races

a few others of my a

  • when reading form, just put the red pen straight though Palladium Star
  • don't bet in Adelaide / NZ

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From: Magician Sent: 26/02/2002 10:55 PM
Give yourself the occasional day of fun. That is, put your normal serious bets on but get together a small kitty with which to bet on anything that is moving. I find this is not only a good freshen up, but also makes you realise that you can't back every winner (and even if you do snag a few have a look at the profit - if it exists) which, in turn, demonstrates why you should stick with your standout bets on each betting day.
 
Also, I often hear people cursing that they would have 'backed the winner of that race'. They go on to explain how much moolah they have missed out on, etc... Everyone's heard the same story many times. Some punters here may even be the deliverers of such heartbraking news. My advice is to give yourself a pat on the back for a good selection, but forget the financial loss. Chances are the supposed loss will not break the bank, and if it does then you were already in deep shit prior to the missed race. To use an analogy, you don't hear cricketers complaining that they are hitting the ball well in the nets - it's good practise - and they would rather be hitting them well while practising than not. Always be prepared to learn without having your money on. Practise makes perfect.

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From: Battler Sent: 26/02/2002 11:03 PM
Well Im a mad Jumps punter, started following C.Durden when he 1st started off with C.S.

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From: emjay Sent: 26/02/2002 11:06 PM
The thing I find most important is to make the time to do your form thoroughly (this means using a full form guide like the sportsman and not reading any of the "experts" captions below each horse like some form guides offer). I have tried too many times to skip my usual form study and have paid a heavy price by the end of the day. I think it is also important to be able to miss a day of punting if you cannot find anything you feel you can back with confidence.
 
The biggest Don't of them all:
DON'T go chasing your loses on the dogs and trots. Especially if you have had a beer or 2 during the afternoon as this can make you feel as though you are an expert on something you know nothing about.

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From: megamacca Sent: 26/02/2002 11:18 PM
Thanks for the do & don'ts.  Its sound advice. just like my father had told me.
 
Being a small time punter, probably like a few of the other members on the forum, its getting to the ability of knowing when to increase your wager and when to stop.  It comes down to what feels comfortable - in that if you go to put a wager on and you start to panic and have a second thought about it, maybe you should stop youself and reduce the bet, if bet at all.
Being an accountant you see alot of money being thrown at vetures that have very little business planning and systems in place to achieve goals.  Betting can also fall under the same category - If you dont study the market trends, keep records on your study and make sure you have the equity behind you to comfortably invest without undue stress of the wager.
 
One day I may reach the heights and become more apt at the art of placing a bet at the right time, or selecting the right way to bet whether it be E/W, Quins, Trif,DD, EX D or what ever.
 
Will be interested in other comments.
 
P.S. luskin star - I will disagree with you on point 10  - JB Cummings should be followed only over the Melbourne Cup Carnival.(Im assuming that you have had a typo)
 
Megamacca
 

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From: nanny! Sent: 26/02/2002 11:45 PM
The best time to bet can be when you're not particularly confident; confidence can be a product of ignorance.

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From: trackbias Sent: 27/02/2002 8:12 AM
golly luskin..re greg childs..does that mean youve never backed sunline of late....you must be bitter about something...i think j.cassidy and g.childs are the 2 jocks i want to be riding for my life...(i just hope j.cassidy would ber serious about my life as well thats all)...cheers

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From: trackbias Sent: 27/02/2002 8:15 AM
to all you weekend punters and ratings "people"..sorry to burst your bubble,,but quite simply you cant win on the the punt consistently,,unless a) you watch the videos,,,and b) youve been punting for at least 10 years...when you watch the videos ,,winnign is a lot lto easier...and with the min 10 years youll know what to make of them..cheers

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From: paraparap Sent: 27/02/2002 8:50 AM
i eagerly await king delamere and king of belmont's response to this thread - in detail please

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From: allan Sent: 27/02/2002 8:53 AM

Rule 1. Don't take tips ESPECIALLY from those pocket pissers at Sky.

         2. Don't bet with the TAB. How can you stake properly without fixed odds???


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From: relko Sent: 27/02/2002 9:30 AM
I have to agree with trackbias, videos are a vital ingredient in finding winners. Too much goes on in a race to only watch it once. The form quide can't give you all of this information.
 
Record all your bets and bet types to find out what is the most profitable (or least costly).
 
Dont bet everywhere is nigh on impossible to be up to date with every horse, every meeting in every state.
 
Dont ignore your local races whereber they may be. Getting a good look at a horses condition is also an important aid.
 
I have to disagree with Luskin on ignoring maiden races. I have found them to be a profitable race class. There are many in the field that can't win and the up and comers who have more ability than the majority of the field. This is especially true when three year olds step into maidens. Just my personal view and I haven't tried this out anywhere else other than the Tasmanian races. It might prove more difficult at tracks with a vast transient horse population.
 
Good punting

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From: raceratepro Sent: 27/02/2002 10:14 AM

One length equals how many kilos?

Many punters use a rule of thumb of say 1kg = 1 length or 1.5kg = 1 length, etc, but its not that easy. To calculate exactly what 1 length is in equivalent weight you need to consider the distance of the race, the track condition, the physical weight of the horse, the weight carried and the time. In a single race, 1 length = x kgs is different for every horse.

 

 

 


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From: young gun Sent: 27/02/2002 12:39 PM
Yeah great thread tripleseven

Here's my little rules I like to follow

Love

1. to back horses which are race fit.
2. to back horses in winning form, even if they are coming to the city from the provincials, as long as they are winning fairly easily away from town.
3. to back horses with good trainers.
4. to back young up-and-coming horses against older horses, especially over shorter distances.

Hate

1. backing horses first or second up. (Dont have the time or resources to keep up to date with trials or trackwork)
2. to back horses who are non winners. ie 20 starts- 3 wins 8 placings. Much rather see 20- 8 wins 3 placings.
3. backing favourites who are under the odds. You all know the ones I'm talking about.
4. A little wierd, but I only bet on Saturdays and I dont like backing topweights in handicap races. Just a theory of mine, which to date, has proven succesful in weeding out some of the horses who the handicapper has got to.

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From: megamacca Sent: 27/02/2002 6:54 PM
Magician,
 
I can understand where you are coming from in relation to having a small kitty to have a freshen up, but would it not be more prudent to have a break from wagering if you think you are "stale".  As tripleseven notes that it is all a personal preferences and for myself I have my rests when there are big Carnivals on.  I have only the resources to punt on the TAB and I find when trying to watch the market it gets distorted on the exceptionally big race days.
 
I am one of those that curse over lost opportunity, but then get a more interested in the thread I follow because it is one that is working.  Tell me if I am wrong but there isn't one system/technique of punting that can always return profits, there has to be a period or a run of outs.
 
Great to here your thoughts.
Megamacca

Offline westie

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« 2009-Jan-07, 10:18 PM Reply #2 »
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From: NineMSN Nickname111-Hareeba Sent: 27/02/2002 7:42 PM
Lots of sound suggestions in this thread.
 
I think the most important things a
 
1. Develop a sound plan of attack (after extensive research). This means both selecting and staking plans.
 
2. Never EVER EVER EVER EVER take under the odds (by definition it is impossible to win in the long run if you dont get VALUE for your money). Determine your own value about every bet and NEVER EVER accept less (not even a single fractional step down - a minimum is MINIMUM). My recommendation is to use a bookie who will bet you (genuine) official top fluctuation. On favoured horses this works out better than the totes in the long run. If you are only a small off-course punter, take Mark Read's Diviplus on city racing but only after being satisfied that it is going to pay at least your minimum value price.
 
3. Keep full records of all your betting (including why you backed each animal) and review them for where you got it right and where you went wrong so as to learn from your experiences.
 
4. Don't lose heart in a losing run. Don't chicken out. Don't chase losses. Stick to your plan. If it was soundly based in the first place, it should come through.
 
5. If you don't have the self discipline to follow these rules. GIVE IT AWAY rather than lose good money which you could spend enjoying some other leisure pursuit.
 
 

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From: NineMSN NicknameKingDelamere-KD1 Sent: 27/02/2002 7:43 PM
don't go making specials in a mid week mares race at Flemington.....you just don't do any BANKING !

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From: The King Of Belmont Sent: 27/02/2002 8:17 PM
The key factors I look for re my selections are as follows:

The first three relate to class and consistency.
1. Average Prizemoney = total prizemoney/total starts. I generally stay clear of horses under $5000 as I find these unreliable types or short of the required class.
2. Win % - I like horses that win (who doesn't when they bet for the win?) I try to avoid those with a win% under 20% as you are sometimes guessing on whether they are due another win when they don't win out of turn.
3. Place % - Obvisiously the higher the place% the more consistent and reliable they are and their trainers appear to place them in the right races.

The next few points are a little harder to define but are just as important.
4. Natural Improvement - A horse can improve consistently over a period of time eg 1 preparation. It is not uncommon for a horse to go through it's classes in one campaign. The ability to recognise these horses early in a preperation is a road to successful punting.
5. Fitness level - Some horses (and trainers for that matter) are ready to fire first run back from a spell. Others need a run or two before they are ready to strike their true form. Whenever I see a horse returning from a spell and check their previous campaigns to see if they fire early. Sometimes it's more than just checking stats. An unplaced first-up run can sometimes be within 2 lengths from the winner in a stronger race. Every horse is different, treat them that way.
6. If they have done it before, they can do it again - Horses are creatures of habit. Some horses don't like certain tracks, some love a certain track. eg a couple of years ago a horse called CHIEF DE BEERS won 20+ races at a single Brisbane track, was trained at the other Brisbane track and never won anywhere else. It was always thereabouts but never won anywhere bar that one track. Also some horses only perform at one distance, some only at one track + distance. 
Some horses only go in wet ground, some only on top of the ground. If you know a horses strong and weak points you are half way to a winning bet and/or saving yourself from a losing bet. ie. know the beasts you are betting on and trust your judgement.  You can't be right all the time, as long as you right often enough.
7. Beleive what you see! - Don't beleive what you are told re a horse's ability.

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From: NineMSN NicknameHappy®1 Sent: 27/02/2002 8:26 PM
biggest key for me at the moment is to get value, i get a set of prices every sat morning that i dont do but are tried and true over many years, if i cant get what i consider value about a selection i wont back it no matter how much i like it.
And i also dont bet in 2yr old races

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From: NineMSN NicknameKingDelamere-KD1 Sent: 27/02/2002 11:05 PM
do's
 
(1) allow an hour to do the form for each meeting.....this month I am up to my neck with work.....you won't see me posting tips because of it.....i won't have a bet if i haven't done the form......time is a huge factor.
(2) doing the form involves getting your hands on a good formguide....."the Sportsman" and "Racenet" are very good as they cover the essential info to pick winners.....such as Sire, Dam, Dam's Sire, at least its past 3 starts, record on all track and conditions, race tempo, weights, barriers, jockeys, trainers, prizemoney.....on the other hand if you are doing the form with the daily "herald sun" or "daily telegraph", then you either are a social punter, and just banking on luck.....or you don't take your punting seriously.
(3) record every bet you make.....break it down to bet types e.g win/place bets, trifectas, quinellas, doubles, quaddies.....try to review your week on the punt.....you would be amazed how good you are at some bet types, and completely hopeless in others.
(4) always save on your bet if you are awaiting a decent payout in a double/quaddie.....just to cover your bet at least
(5) i have a budget a day.....whether I am so far in front, or if i'm going through a run of outs.....my betting limit for the day remains unchanged.....it has been the same for 3 years now.
(6) if you consider yourself an astute judge, you wouldn't want anyone's opinion other than your own.....the only other people I consider that are consistently up to scratch are Tony Brassel ( he has the time to go to trials ), Wayne Wilson, Mark Shean, Ron Papps ( shit caller, top tipster ) and Steve Moran.
(7) try to be on track as much as possible.....I won't touch horses I've fancied pre race if they drift alarmingly.....e.g 7/2 out to 7/1.....not only are you taking grose unders at home, you'll find most of these drifters run down the track.
(8) keep a blackbook
(9) doubles and quaddies are my favourite exotic bets.....unbelievable overs are offered 90% of the time
(10) for each metro meeting I have at least 3 lays.....93 % strike rate......if anyone wants them on a saturday, let it be known to me by email or a thread......I've always done the form by midnight friday.
 
dont's
 
 
(1) don't listen to Hilton Donaldson
(2) more often than not a horse that is running over the same distance as at its previous run WILL NOT WIN if it hasn't raced within 16 days ( or 2 weeks)
 
form guide example
King Delamere
1600 metres- Flemington- 8/2/02- 1st of 15-  sp 6/1- good track
 
I would not back this horse in a 1600 metre race at its next start to WIN if it was to run after 24/2/02.
 
Yet if the horse was to step up to 1800 metres or 2000 metres...... I would give it a winning chance as long as it would have its next run within 23 days ( or 3 weeks ).....nothing later
 
exceptions to the rule
-International horses
- when a track is rated dead, I add 100 metres to the distance, when a track is rated slow or heavy then i add 200 metres to the race distance.
 
So if King Delamere was to have its next run on a Slow track over 1600 metres within 23 days ( 3 weeks ) of its last start.....I would then classify it a 1800 metre race, therefore on my theory it COULD WIN at its next start.
 
******* 1600 metres was just an example......this rule applies to all distances with the exception of 1000 metre races.....or horses resuming from a spell.
 
horses coming back in distance
 
I don't like horses coming back in distance as a rule.....their are a couple of exceptions though that DO work :-
 
On the example above......if King Delamere was to drop back in distance at its next start, to say a 1400 metre race.....I could only fancy it to WIN if
a) the horse has had a 3 week freshen up......not one, not 2.....not 4.....MUST BE 3
 
******yet if the track was to be slow in this situation, it would make it a 1600 metre race, therefore I would not expect it to WIN, as my theory says NOT TO BACK A HORSE THAT STARTS OVER THE SAME DISTANCE, IF 3 WEEKS HAVE ELAPSED
 
Their is no way I could explain this to you properly unless I was with you face to face with a form guide.....this is something I have come to observe and master over 15 years of punting.....it has been the main key to my BANKING !......remembering I have only started getting great profits the past 3-4 years ( my first 10 years on the punt were at a loss.....no control, no records....betting only on the adrenalin factor....young and reckless )......along with a broad knowledge of breeding ( I DON'T MEAN LIKE BRENDAN PARNELL )......just know your staying lines, with your short and middle distance blood lines and you're almost there.
 
I will say this until I'm Black or Blue......the punt is 70 % knowledge and 30 % luck
 
Sorry to confuse the s*it out of you all
 
KD
 
 
 

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From: NineMSN Nickname-triple-seven- Sent: 28/02/2002 9:21 AM
Great to see the broad number of contributions to date. There is some quality info here for anyone to learn from.
 
Maybe a summary of some of the thoughts toward "How you bet / money" side of things would cover;
 
* Overall, have a sensible money management approach. Plan what you do, work to a budget plan be that for a bettin day, week or month - know your limits and work to them.
 
* Keep written records. Detail from go to wo, why you selected this bet, bet types, and results. Reviewing of such can be an education in itself, of what you are oing right or regular mistakes.
 
* Consider a staking method.
 
* If you are going to bet money make the time to do the form properly.
 
* Some obvious no no's that are mentioned regulary are betting on credit, borrowing to bet and chasing when losing.
 
 
Great to see some quality input from some toward the "What do you bet on / form selection" issues, inparticular from KOB and KD. It would be good to continue such discussion.
 
Maybe this could develop as its own thread, any thoughts ?
  

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From: winonly Sent: 28/02/2002 9:56 AM
I think a persons psychology is important when determining a list of do's and don'ts. For example, some people are brazen thrillseekers by nature who most probably are comfortable betting straight out on their selections at any price. Others are extremely conservative by nature and are more comfortable betting place on "good things" and achieving 2% POT. You need to formulate a good staking plan with good selections and stick with it if it has proven profitable through a very long sequence of testing. You can only stick with something through thick and thin if you are betting in a way you are comfortable with.
 

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From: aspeol Sent: 28/02/2002 10:40 AM
This would be a great thread if  Nanny!, Woody, PAB and a few others could offer some wisdom.
 
Some basic rules I adhere to;
  • VALUE
  • VALUE
  • VALUE
    • Shop Around
    • Be Selective
    • Discipline to bet when the time is right
    • Patience to stay out when it isnt
    • Record Keeping 

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From: champagne Sent: 28/02/2002 10:48 AM
Geeez...you blokes make havin' a punt sound like rocket science.

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From: wenona Sent: 28/02/2002 10:56 AM
No Champers .... it's much harder than that!

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From: NineMSN NicknameRodent™ Sent: 28/02/2002 11:09 AM
My rule will contradict most contributors to this thread.
  • Don't make generalisations.

Hard and fast rules that people stick to, will sometimes help but other times prevent you backing a winner. This game is all about information and having the expertise to analyse it. Every race is different and will throw up possible scenarios. Idfentify the value(if any exixts) and back it accordingly. Only through many years of watching and punting on races will you gain the necessary expertise(assuming you have enough grey matter). Only through hard work (or considerable expense) will you gain enough information.

 To those of you who are recreational punters....you can still win. However, you need to focus your bets in a small area. Say, focus only on quaddies which represent the best value. If you stick to quaddies in 1 state, you can get a reasonable handle on the form and by identifying only marginal value in each leg you can make a profit over the year.

Remember, rules are too rigid. Many rules however are based on sound principal....maidens and 2yo's....I rarely bet on them either....why?...because I don't have the required amount of info. When I do though, I'll bet in them. Treat every race as an independent event and evaluate it on its merits!

 


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From: NineMSN NicknameTheFireman111x111 Sent: 28/02/2002 11:27 AM
Champers I'm with you, My tips

1 Drink heavily before placing your bet.

2.When placing your bet look for horses names which contain your mothers maiden name or your first dogs name.

3.Ride home the winner at the top of your lungs even if your not on it, to impress your mates.

4. If you do win, hand your ticket around the table to show how clever you have been, if you dont win but have pretended that you did, fold the ticket neatly and place into your wallet, while mumbbling the words "that will do me nicely" so all around you can hear.

5. For the worst case scenario,ie.. the mother maiden system for some unknown reason doesnt work, always keep 50 dollars in your pocket, to play the pokies , and remember always double up on the suit, first diamonds then clubs and never go against a run of reds..

6. If after all of these you still end up losing blame the guy you went down with the pub with remember he always brings bad luck when your on the punt .


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From: champagne Sent: 28/02/2002 12:25 PM
TheFireman and woodywob........thank goodness for your comments, I was beginning to think I was surrounded by a bunch of Racing PhD's...LOL
 
Rule 1 : Only bet what you can afford to LOSE.
Rule 2 : Make up your own mind, then you've no-one else to blame.
Rule 3 : Enjoy the sport for the spectacle it is.
Rule 4 : If you're winning, increase the ante, if you're losing DECREASE (ie Don't try and get out-of-jail in one bet)
Rule 5 : Ring the missus if you don't plan coming home when you said you would.
Rule 6 : If you didn't ring....don't bother going home.
Rule 7 : There are good days and bad days, differentiate what constitues each.
Rule 8 : Keep $20 hidden somewhere for a taxi and pizza.

Offline westie

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« 2009-Jan-07, 10:20 PM Reply #3 »
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From: NineMSN Nickname-triple-seven- Sent: 28/02/2002 2:47 PM
And if in doubt, just stick to rules 6 and 8.

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From: megamacca Sent: 28/02/2002 6:03 PM
KD,
 
Spent most of the bosses time looking at the racenet site - and your right, it is a fantastic source of info  - Thanks Mate

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From: Puntermatt Sent: 1/03/2002 12:41 AM
Excellent thread everyone - my punting rules reflect my passion for systems and systematic analysis:
 
- Horse must be in the top 6 in average prizemoney earned but be weary or VOBIS or QRIS earnings - 95% of the time, this will identify CLASS in a race.
- Never back horses with more than 21 days between runs unless it is a first up /fresh specialist or has been successful fresh in the past.
- Do not back 7 year olds and over - more often than not, they have lost their zest for racing.
- Ditto horses with 30 or more starts.
- Ignore double figure barriers up to 1600m.
- Eliminate races with 4 or more last start winners. LSW win 33% of all races and when there are 4 or more LSW in a race.........you do the math!!
 
* This is how i systematically identify possible bets. Now that i have weeded most of the crap horses and races out of the form guide, i have a small pool of horses from which to study the form. My passion is identifying horses that have successfully accomplished something in the past and backing them to do it again - yes, i believe that horses are creatures of habit. I also do weight and length calculations to determine if a horse has been given a chance by the handicapper among other things.
 
* However, i'm am not totally committed to a systematic approach to betting. I recognize that Rodent has a point when he says that some races have to be treated as independent events and valued on their merits. That is why i have what i call a "flexibet". This is a bet where i allow myself to break one or more of my rules when i consider that a horse should be considered on ite merits and not my merits. I allow myself one flexibet per betting day.
 
MONEY MANAGEMENT
- I operate 6 betting banks. One for my general betting activities as discussed above. Four  for the 4 systems that i run. The last betting bank is solely devoted to the tips i receive, most of them from a handful of very astute judges on this forum(you know who you are!!) Too many punters cop tips and just bet them blindly, even using normal punting banks!!! Setting up a seperate betting bank for tips is one of the best things that i have ever done.
 
And finally the golden rule - WRITE EVERYTHING DOWN!!!! If its not written down - then it never happened!!!
 
Puntermatt

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Recommend  Message 36 of 116 in Discussion 
From: parrapete Sent: 1/03/2002 4:26 PM
Try to bet like the most successful punters you know
Do not bet like the punters you have known who are in jail or have disappeared.
 

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Recommend  Message 37 of 116 in Discussion 
From: nanny! Sent: 2/03/2002 12:47 AM
Don't know about wisdom, Aspeol, but I like to spot ridiculous theories people come up with for why horses can't win.  Some that come to mind: Canterbury's short straight will count against Super Impose; Jeune pulls too much, and, besides, Dye's riding Top Rating; you can't win the Slipper from barrier one; Landsighting's never won at Rosehill; Spinning Hill won't be sharp enough for 1,000 metres.

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From: NineMSN Nickname-triple-seven- Sent: 26/07/2002 11:07 AM
Given the discussion on the "Professional Gambling and Ratings" thread that has evolved this week, I thought I'd find this thread and bring it back up to the surface. Some may enjoy the read, some who haven't yet may wish to make a contribution.
 

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Recommend  Message 40 of 116 in Discussion 
From: parrapete Sent: 26/07/2002 6:44 PM
Back the horse you consider to be the best odds in the race,not necessarily the horse you think will win the race.If you think there is more than one genuine chance it is better to take 12/1 your second pick than  6/4 your top pick.
Your 2nd selection  wins more than 7.7% of races and your top selection wins less than 40%
Bet equal stakes win only.

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Recommend  Message 41 of 116 in Discussion 
From: FastEddy Sent: 26/07/2002 8:22 PM
I try to Win , but one of my important rules is "Look for Value" in your selection/s , i.e. is the horse you are betting at Value odds compared to the others , I used to try and work out my own market on a race and if the horse I decided on was at least 2 points over my price I would then place a bet.
But I reckon a few here have got it , as in dont bet what you cannot afford , dont ever use credit or borow to have a bet etc.
But champers came up with what I reckon is the hard and fast rule-
Make up your own mind , then you can only blame YOURSELF !
DO WIN , DONT LOSE.

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Recommend  Message 42 of 116 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameCole_Diesel Sent: 29/07/2002 7:36 PM
This has been a really interesting thread to read, great fun and some good theories as well. Its been a long time since I was a serious punter but my rules would still be valid today. My punting today is purely occasional and recreational because I don't have the time to do my own form.
 
RULES:
 
1/ Remember that good horses are more consistent than bad horses and that the better class races have more exposed form and have a field of better and therefore more consistent beasts.
 
2/ Don't listen to the radio experts, if they were that good they either wouldnt be working on the radio or they simply wouldnt be telling us.
 
3/ Remember value is king, never take unders.
 
4/ Bet with your head not your heart
 
5/ Don't bother with just in case bets, "I will back it just in case it wins"
 
6/ Concentrate on the best one or two races in each state, if you are going to do the form at least do it properly, dont spread your study too thin. You are never going to back 8 winners so don't even try.
 
And finally,
 
7/ If you ever lie about your loses, it's time to give it away, this rule applies to all addictions, smoking , drinking.........etc
 
Good luck on the punt,
cheers

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Recommend  Message 43 of 116 in Discussion 
From: Win On Track Sent: 27/10/2002 4:00 PM
This was very interesting reading and many "old" general problems with backing a winner are discussed, except
the only true answer to consistenly win large amounts on horse racing, that is;
 
Which horses will run faster today, and which horses will run slower.
 
I am 101% proven right that the fitness of all your bets determines your long and short-term profit and loss.
 
Nowadays there are fitness spotters oncourse, giving out information to very large punters that are betting
bigger and bigger.
 
This is the single most important information to winning, yet 99.99% of  punters dont have it.
 
This information is vital to consistently give you that grouping, at any odds,
that first cross the line together.
 
Then you own betting strategies come into place.
 
So, until you have that fitness information, you will still be discussing the do's and don'ts for winning on the punt for the rest of your life.
 
Good luck, punting is not as complicated as we are led to believe.
 
 

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Recommend  Message 44 of 116 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameHappy®1 Sent: 27/10/2002 4:03 PM
fitness is about 10% of the puzzle. If the horse is the fittest in the race but at best is  a 6 length worse horse then the fav he will get beat  every time.
You should stick to your dream machine crap prophet

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Recommend  Message 45 of 116 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN Nickname111-Hareeba Sent: 27/10/2002 4:11 PM
you can hide behind another nickname Prophet but your words give you away

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Recommend  Message 46 of 116 in Discussion 
From: Win On Track Sent: 27/10/2002 5:07 PM
I dont hind behind the prophet, he has been retired.
 
Fitness is about 80% of betting.
 
So if it is not fitness or you say 10%, what is the secret to life long winning, or will you still give the same reasons that millions of others have, but as yet to be proven, anywhere in the world?
 
I cant understand why you keep saying fitness has no bearing on the outcome of a race result.
 
If that is the case why do you have a moniety fee structures for trainers?
 
Anyway, some persons will never learn, or every want to.
 
Good luck.

Offline westie

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« 2009-Jan-07, 10:21 PM Reply #4 »
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From: NineMSN NicknameHappy®1 Sent: 27/10/2002 5:16 PM
your not really worth arguing with prophet but i,ll have 1 more go.
If you put a  fully fit maiden up against a 3/4 fit welter horse who would you back? The way you go on about fitness you would back the fit horse and get beat most times
What if the fittest horse is a leader and  theres 6 other leaders in the race it wont win most times as the race will be set up for a run on horse.
What if the fittest horses are wet track horses and its a concrete  track? they wont  win most times.
What about track bias if the fittest horse is a leader on a day that leaders cant win it has little hope
There are hundreds of variables in every race, fitness is important but it is about 10% of the battle

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Recommend  Message 48 of 116 in Discussion 
From: Win On Track Sent: 27/10/2002 10:36 PM
I agree with you 100% happy, but once again that mystical word "fitness"
keeps coming up.
 
Which horses with wet form on a dry track are fitter?
Which horses that are maidens against welters are fitter?
 
All I want to know is where can I find out which horses are fittest in
each race, and which newsagency can sell that paper to me every race-day morning.
 
Your are absolutely right in what you say, but I want to know where can I get this fitness information?
 
If you can tell me which horses are the fittest each Saturday, Happy and Hareeba  I will back them.
 

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Recommend  Message 49 of 116 in Discussion 
From: Win On Track Sent: 27/10/2002 10:38 PM
All except the 10% part.

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Recommend  Message 50 of 116 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN Nicknameimaufo  Sent: 18/03/2004 10:30 AM
 
More do's and dont's
 

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Recommend  Message 51 of 116 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN Nicknametriple-7- Sent: 30/08/2005 10:15 AM
bump to the surface

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Recommend  Message 52 of 116 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameFireZuki13 Sent: 30/08/2005 12:12 PM
Don't.  With the GST the Government doesn't need your money.

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Recommend  Message 53 of 116 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN Nickname__eraser_ Sent: 31/08/2005 10:09 PM
Remember, it is best to try not to get emotional when investing (as hard as that truly is in practice!)

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From: NineMSN NicknameLuskin_Star© Sent: 31/08/2005 10:53 PM
Something I have noticed quite often lately. A horse that wins a maiden impressively, and then jumps a couple of classes to avoid a big weight rise. They just don't win.
 
In Queensland, John Hawkes will only race his horses at Doomben, Eagle Farm, Ipswich or Caloundra. So when one of them win a maiden, he usually steps them straight up to a Class 3 Wednesday race. They don't win.
 
Similar occurrances in Victoria with trainers trying to beat big weight rises after scoring in a maiden, they race the horse in Class 2 or 3 races. Be very careful, unless the horse is outstanding, they usually don't win again. Maybe some of the trainers are just trying to get the weight down by running the horse out of its class and finishing out of a place.
 
Hope that helps  

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Recommend  Message 56 of 116 in Discussion 
From: FlyingSpur Sent: 1/09/2005 2:56 AM
A horse that rises more than 3.5kgs or drops more than 7 i think from memory has a much less chance of winning. Something like that....

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Recommend  Message 57 of 116 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN Nicknamegratlog1 Sent: 1/09/2005 12:48 PM
By all means moan about your loses but never ever admit your true winnings, especially on a public site like this as you never know who is watching

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Recommend  Message 58 of 116 in Discussion 
From: dubbledee Sent: 1/09/2005 10:52 PM
There is one golden rule if you wanna win at the punt...
 
If your selection is favourite, don't bet!
 
Sure you'll miss some winners, but the odds of favourites overall is way under their true chance of winning.
 
Don't tell me you can pick the ones that are "value"...I don't know a single punter who backs favourites who's not still working for a living.

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Recommend  Message 59 of 116 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameLuskin_Star© Sent: 1/09/2005 11:04 PM
Yes you do DD      

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Recommend  Message 60 of 116 in Discussion 
From: dubbledee Sent: 2/09/2005 10:02 AM
Will rack my brain on that one, Luskin.
 
I shoulda also added...favourites are always good bets after they win.

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Recommend  Message 61 of 116 in Discussion 
From: raceratepro Sent: 2/09/2005 11:05 AM
Our data supports the backing of favourites ...
With no other factors taken into consideration, you are 7% (profit/loss) better off backing favourites than non-favourites. Favourites whose price is money back for the place or better have the lowest loss.
 
From a total of 14,022 races (last 12 months) all States :-
Favourites All, WinSR = 25% WinProfit/Loss = -15% Total Races 9,432
Favourites < 4/1, WinSR = 26% WinProfit/Loss = -16% Total Races 8,229
Favourites >= 4/1, WinSR = 19% WinProfit/Loss = -12% Total Races 1,203
NonFavourites All, WinSR = 16% WinProfit/Loss = -22% Total Races 4,590
Non-Favourites < 4/1, WinSR = 20% WinProfit/Loss = -23% Total Races 1,698
Non-Favourite >= 4/1, WinSR = 14% WinProfit/Loss = -21% Total Races 2,892

Offline westie

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« 2009-Jan-07, 10:22 PM Reply #5 »
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From: NineMSN Nicknamegratlog1 Sent: 2/09/2005 11:07 AM
I do'nt give a rats what price as long as they win.
 
As I posted somewhere else, I even backed Nadal to win in the US Open the other night as I needed  the two cents that I won to tidy up my account.
 I might'nt be mad but I'm close to it

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Recommend  Message 63 of 116 in Discussion 
From: tdd Sent: 2/09/2005 11:15 AM
I remember Sean Bartholomew on Racing Retro earlier this year saying that if you backed every favourite in Sydney at top fluc you would make a very nice profit. 

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Recommend  Message 64 of 116 in Discussion 
From: ricochet88 Sent: 2/09/2005 11:28 AM
So tdd extending that logic ,as you can usually get 10% better on Betfair, if you could get top odds on Betfair you would have a VERY, VERY nice profit.

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Recommend  Message 65 of 116 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameRad55555 Sent: 2/09/2005 11:51 AM
I believe that DD's advice about avoiding favourites when betting  is close to the worst punting advice that I've seen on the forum.
 
The stats that RRP disclosed re-confirm the findings of Don Scott (Winning More) many years ago (original info from the 1950's, but confirmed again prior to the book's release in 1985):
 
" ... the longer a horse's starting price, the greater the disadvantage to the backer ... horses that start at prices between 1-1 and 7-2 are the best horses to back with a disadvantage of only 5.25% against the general average disadvantage of 17.25%"
 
" ... Horses from the 1-1 to 7-2 price group are the horses punters should support if they want to earn their bread and butter. Backing these horses, punters with no knowledge of class, form or weight can transform a fice percent disadvantage into a five percent advantage simply by getting the best of the odds (ie top fluc) ... "
 
Here is the logic:
Bookies need to get money into the bag if they are going to get enough revenue to make the whole exercise worthwhile. From definition, most of the money is for the favoured horses. Therefore bookies have to attract punters to bet on these favourites.
Different bookies have different opinions of the chances of each horse. The variety of bookie opinions, coupled with the desire to attract punters to bet, creates fluctuations in horse odds.
The fluctuations create a situation where the disadvantage that punters face (from the creation of markets at greater than 100%) is reduced and it is the market favourites where the reduced disadvantage is most important.
 
To recommend that punters avoid betting where they are best placed to win (ie concentrating your punting on favoured horses) is advice that I wouldn't be giving. I would be making exactly the opposite recommendation:
 
I would be looking for horses where my estimation of the horse's winning chance is greater than the markets and where my likely strike rate is high.

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Recommend  Message 66 of 116 in Discussion 
From: tdd Sent: 2/09/2005 11:59 AM
Yes Richochet you would be doing very nicely

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Recommend  Message 67 of 116 in Discussion 
From: EasyAl Sent: 2/09/2005 12:04 PM
There are a lot of things you can do that actually support your advice DD
 
Take field sizes and class into account - bet in races where value exists and limit the number of your bets - by doing this you don't fall into the generic 25% in 10,000 races slot.
 
I rarely back any horses less than $3 - I did back Lotteria 2 weeks back at $2.80 - also backed Stratum tomorrow at $1.80 (only my second odds on bet this year) - generally look to medium priced runners however as you know these days I don't bet as much for the win as I rely on Field Quinellas.
 
Good discussion.
 
Al

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Recommend  Message 68 of 116 in Discussion 
From: raceratepro Sent: 2/09/2005 12:16 PM
Forget about favourites, the loss just gets worse as the price increases.
 
Price >= 4/1 WinSR = 16% WonProfit/Loss = -18%
Price >= 5/1 WinSR = 14% WonProfit/Loss = -26%
Price >= 6/1 WinSR = 12% WonProfit/Loss = -33%
Price >=7/1 WinSR = 10% WonProfit/Loss = -34%
Price >= 8/1 WinSR = 9% WonProfit/Loss = -38%
Price >= 10/1 WinSR = 6% WonProfit/Loss = -47%

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Recommend  Message 69 of 116 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN Nicknameover_the_odds Sent: 2/09/2005 2:38 PM
I can see where DD is coming from, but there's a caveat.
 
A person who wants regular action (i.e. betting in a fair percentage of races on a given day) would be best advised to back the shorter ones.
 
If you want to back them at a price, you have to be more selective. You can't just back every horse that's between say 10/1 and 25/1 in a race and expect to consistently make money. You have to wait until you see a race (and a horse) where you've seen something the crowd hasn't seen.
 
I read an article from some American guy in PPM a couple of years back that said "You don't make money by betting everything with everyone. You make it by making big scores, by being right occasionally."

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Recommend  Message 70 of 116 in Discussion 
From: William Sent: 3/09/2005 12:00 AM
No DD.
 
Say it aint so.
 
About the only time I have ever disagreed with you, but it's a doosie.

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From: dubbledee Sent: 3/09/2005 1:35 PM
I stand by my advice....the stats presented are based on bookies' odds, I expect.  Would be a totally different picture if tote odds were used.
 
Having said that punters who back favourites will lose long-term...did I say that we should back roughies JUST BECAUSE THEY ARE ROUGH?  No, I did not.
 
For those who need assistance in logic...
 
1. IF YOUR SELECTION IS FAVOURITE DON'T BET.
 
2. IF YOUR SELECTION IS GOOD ODDS DO BET.
 
The eventual outcome will be determined by your method of selecting.  And I've shown over the years on this forum that mine works very well.
 
PS I'm still looking for someone who wins backing favourites...if there are any on this Forum, start a thread...and show us...but BEFORE the race is run.

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From: dubbledee Sent: 3/09/2005 1:57 PM
blocka...I presume you mean 4/1 or more?
 
Happy to back it.  But the average SP of favs these days is more like 2/1.
 
Cheers.

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From: Geoff Sent: 3/09/2005 1:59 PM
2/1 could still be "good odds"  imho

Offline westie

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« 2009-Jan-07, 10:23 PM Reply #6 »
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From: dubbledee Sent: 3/09/2005 2:01 PM
Agree again, Geoff.  $1.40 is good odds...IF they win.
 
But we punters are here for LIFE...and if ya keep taking 2/1 you will lose.

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Recommend  Message 78 of 116 in Discussion 
From: dubbledee Sent: 3/09/2005 2:04 PM
blocka...well the "good" and "bad" assessment can really be made only after the race.
 
You would have taken short odds a horse, seen it blow, and still it won?  The converse applies, too.  The odds you took would be regarded as "unders" by most.  The good thing is that horses can't read tote screens...although there are exceptions.

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Recommend  Message 79 of 116 in Discussion 
From: Geoff Sent: 3/09/2005 2:08 PM
I don't.
My odds range is from 1/2  to  30/1. 

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Recommend  Message 80 of 116 in Discussion 
From: raceratepro Sent: 3/09/2005 3:04 PM
We agree with DD, its very hard to profit by backing favourites alone, you'll just lose less than backing the second or third favourite all the time.
What makes the favourites? They're the people's choice and at least 50% of them shouldn't be favourites. Funny thing people, they read the form or race book field always in order from top to bottom because that's the way its presented to them. In handicaps, they know the closer a horse is to the top the more opinion the handicapper has for it and usually it the best performed (or unknown) in the race. By the time they've read horse #4 the majority have already picked their winner. We haven't read the form that way for years. We don't care what number it is, its name or expected paper price. All we care about is the factual information which relates to it.
We should post a randomly sorted race with form but no names or numbers one day and see what everybody comes up with, then get them to go the newpaper form and see if they come up with the same selection.

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Recommend  Message 81 of 116 in Discussion 
From: dubbledee Sent: 3/09/2005 3:14 PM
RRP
 
Good points.  There's no doubt that "low" numbers impact significantly on multi dividends.  If we can get a treble or quaddie with double-digit numbers we'll get huge "overs" w.r.t individual win odds.
 
Your suggestion of doing form with horses in alphabetical order (rather than saddlecloth number) is a good one.  I often have to remind myself that the bottom 10 of a 14-horse field are carrying the same weight!

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Recommend  Message 82 of 116 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameLuskin_Star© Sent: 3/09/2005 4:34 PM
 
 
From: dubbledee
 
 
PS I'm still looking for someone who wins backing favourites...if there are any on this Forum, start a thread...and show us...but BEFORE the race is run.
 
 
DD, I don't need to start another thread. Just read the Massie Lodge web site where you will find a record of my tips for 18 months, that show a clear profit backing favourites. And all tips were posted at least 24 hours prior to race time.  

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Recommend  Message 83 of 116 in Discussion 
From: dubbledee Sent: 3/09/2005 4:38 PM
Oh there are winners there, Luskin...but what was the profit on turnover?   And why not continue to share your winners?
 
PS I can get 6% with my credit union.

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Recommend  Message 84 of 116 in Discussion 
From: Ascot Sent: 3/09/2005 5:03 PM
DD might be onto something here....it seems on today's results so far, not all favourites win!!  Maybe just an abberation, but I am not sure!!!!! 
 
MR1: Fav Leveller at 6/4 runs 3rd; winner @4/1
MR2: Fav Red Dazzler at 4/5 runs 4th; winner @8/1
MR3: Fav The Big Heated @ 5/2 runs 2nd; winner @200/1
MR4: Fav Tick By @ 2/1 (how did that get up???)
MR5: Fav Niconero @ 7/4; winner @ 6/1
 
Hmmmmmm.  Still, some races left to get square, but how do you tell which ones will win??

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Recommend  Message 85 of 116 in Discussion 
From: dubbledee Sent: 3/09/2005 5:10 PM
LOL, Ascot...maybe I shoulda kept it to myself, ya think?   But no one backed Stratum because it was no value - but you new that.
 
Hope you're finding a winner or too, mate.  AFK not a perfect start to the quaddie...but sure better than the fav.

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Recommend  Message 86 of 116 in Discussion 
From: dubbledee Sent: 3/09/2005 5:34 PM
No one woulda backed Dizelle?

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Recommend  Message 87 of 116 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN Nicknamegratlog1 Sent: 3/09/2005 6:11 PM
On the subject of backing favorites.
 It might sound silly but I do'nt really follow the racing game to win money but to me it's just a bit of fun. Of course I would like to win big bikkies occassionally but by backing whatever I like I get a better strike rate and therefore more enjoyment and by taking what you like a lot of the times they might start favorite but that wo'nt stop me backing them.
  I admire the people who make a quid out of punting but I just put my regular money into my Tab ac each fortnight and as long as I do'nt lose more than that I"M happy.
 
In saying that I've been very lucky this year and by taking a few tips from the forum  and throwing a few of my own in, I am well in front. A couple people on the forum can attest to that so I'm not speaking after the event
  Actually I'm sitting on a nice Lounge suite that I brought with the procedes of a good treble not long back.

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Recommend  Message 88 of 116 in Discussion 
From: dubbledee Sent: 3/09/2005 6:15 PM
Anyone back Swick???
 
I recall you didn't get that lounge suite treble from favourites, gratlog?

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Recommend  Message 89 of 116 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameLuskin_Star© Sent: 3/09/2005 6:23 PM
DD, Chess Record was the bet of the day. OMG, it wasn't favourite, maybe I shouldn't have backed it, lol.
 
DD, I stopped tipping on the web site because most of the winners were too short. I was posting them the night before, and the majority were coming up $2.50 or under, plenty at odds on. Winning SR was over 52%, POI over 8%, average winning price was around $2.45, and that lasted for 18 months, which is a pretty fair indication.

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Recommend  Message 90 of 116 in Discussion 
From: dubbledee Sent: 3/09/2005 6:26 PM
Yeah, well even *I* backed Chess Record...so it must have been easy.  That's long odds for you, mate.
 
So Luskin you're saying your tips returned 8% on flat stake?

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Recommend  Message 91 of 116 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameRad55555 Sent: 3/09/2005 6:33 PM
I find it disappointing that DD not only recommends an illogical punting approach (ie avoiding the area of punting that on average returns more to the average punter than any other area of straight out punting) but, having issued a challenge, then immediately downplays a response from Luskin Star which answers his challenge.
 
DD, it is a pity that you can't seem to respect the fact that there are different approaches to the game and that your recommended approach is not the only answer, and possibly not the best answer, to doing better than your credit union's rate of return.
 
DD, if you are interested in challenges, why don't you find someone who is prepared to post on the forum, who avoids favourites, who publishes bets well in advance of starting time and who beats your credit union rate of return.
 
When you do that, I'll partially understand your credentials to decide to give a slap in the face to a reputable tipster / punter / forumite like Luskin. Luskin had legitimate reasons for ceasing the posting of his selections and they are nothing to do with anything that should concern you or give you cause to raise them on the forum. He has publically posted selections that are generally favourites and made good profits at level stakes. I know that he has done better in reality after betting a lot closer to the jump than internet posting allows.
 
Favourites win more often than second favourites, third favourites and outsiders. The standard return for betting on them is more favourable than for betting on longer priced horses. A punter can achieve better returns than the standard in a variety of ways: betting on best flucs, betting on betfair, avoiding poor value and using top tote odds.
 
Avoiding backing favourites in all cases is not logical.

Offline westie

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« 2009-Jan-07, 10:25 PM Reply #7 »
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From: dubbledee Sent: 3/09/2005 6:36 PM
Ohhhh..thanks for the advice, Rad....and I'll give you some...be very careful of "averages".
 
Cheers.

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Recommend  Message 93 of 116 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN Nicknamegratlog1 Sent: 3/09/2005 6:41 PM
I recall you didn't get that lounge suite treble from favourites, gratlog?
 
No mate I never said I did and got it again today as you know without favorites.
   Just listening to who I think are good judges.
 
As I posted the other day I backed the ultimate favorite with Nadal at the tennis when he was paying $1.02 lol  It's all about fun imo
 
How did this debate start? I could'nt give two hoots how other people bet.

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Recommend  Message 94 of 116 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameLuskin_Star© Sent: 3/09/2005 7:00 PM
DD, yes better than 8% over 18 months. The results are there for all to see.
 
I think the best way to close this debate, is to say everyone has their own way of punting. Whether it be betting straight out, place only, trifectas, wuinellas, quaddies, whatever. If it is successful for you, terrific, keep doing what you are doing. And please let us know how to be successful.
 
I have success backing horses in the market. DD has success backing horse at good odds. Both of us punt differently, both of us have success. I suppose what DD and myself should do, is explain why we back certain horses, and why we don't.
 
The point of this thread is to try to advise some members who are not having much success, how to improve their punting. I certainly am not perfect, I had a losing day today despite my best bet winning, so that in theory is poor punting.

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From: dubbledee Sent: 3/09/2005 7:06 PM
Well we BOTH lost, Luskin...might be time to look at our strategies.
 
I'm off to get a plane.  I know it's odds-on that it won't wait for me.  Will be back to cause more havoc tomorrow.
 
 

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From: Ascot Sent: 3/09/2005 11:28 PM
Perhaps the issue here is semantics.  Luskin obviousluy can win on his selections over time.  Perhaps it is coincidental that many of  Luskin's fancies start favourite.  But I doubt, Luskin, if all your selections start favourite.
 
And that is the issue.  It is one thing to say that Luskin can win on the punt.
 
But it is a tenuous arguement to assert that backing favourites generically will be profitable over time.  Today's results at Flemington pretty much proves that if you back every favourite you will go broke.  Horses like Fashions Afield and Niconero looked good things pre race, and delivered zippo.  This occurs with monotonous regularity. 
 
 

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From: El Zoro Sent: 4/09/2005 4:18 AM
Gratlog,
How did your 'Pick the scores' in the NRL go this year?
I recall you saying you put on the same score for every game(22-10) ? last year.
Cost $14 a week(both teams to win) x 24 weeks= $336.
Only had to get 1 or 2 up over the season to do OK.
Interested to hear how you went, as I am planning of doing this next year for a bit of fun/interest. 
 
 

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From: NineMSN Nicknamegratlog1 Sent: 4/09/2005 7:55 AM
El Zoro,
             Did'nt do any good this year but I went thirds with a couple on mates to cut costs. We intend doing the same next year as it is a interest in every game. We'll probably stick with 22-12 and 12-22.
    Last year we had a small win but as you appreciate luck plays a big part.

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From: NineMSN Nicknamegratlog1 Sent: 4/09/2005 8:33 AM
I think I'd better make sure that I did'nt miss a win as our mate who we trusted to put them all on and is our banker has just brought a new boat. He lives up at Bribie and I have'nt seen him for awhile.
 Just got a email from my other partner in crime informing me of this so better check it out.

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From: NineMSN Nicknameracehorses1 Sent: 4/09/2005 11:05 AM
My Do's of punting .......Go to Brisbane Racing Selections, lots of good tips there from forum members, thanks guys  
 
 
 
Dont's........ follow mine   

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Recommend  Message 101 of 116 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN Nicknamegratlog1 Sent: 4/09/2005 11:16 AM
RH you're pretty spot on there re Brsbane page. I've had a few treble off there now by coupling the picks up. Got it again yesterday when it cost $24 and Paid $176.
 
Burnt Toast was the star yesterday.

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Recommend  Message 102 of 116 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN Nicknameracehorses1 Sent: 4/09/2005 11:56 AM
 Yep Gratlog, my bets are only very small,  but I mix and match every ones tips ........Often come up with a tri that way, good luck today
yaaaaaaaaaaaaay for your treble, Popular Treble King ( DD) will be back soon,
so we can expect some good trebles coming up
BT is up there with Rumpy ,PTK and your self and one to watch is Basil Girl if she tells you a horse at Rocky,  get on

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From: dubbledee Sent: 4/09/2005 10:46 PM
A few more things about backing horses at longer odds...
 
They offer enormous potential in multi-race bets such as doubles, treble and quaddies.  And it's these bets where punters who have no desire in risking large amounts can get extraordinary "value".  The returns will almost always be way ahead of what we would get "all-up"...and before Rumpy jumps on me and tells me he can pick his races in an all-up bet, let me say that I'm not counseling anyone to bet in every treble, or quaddie...wait till the races have lots of chances, including horses you wanna back.
 
For Luskin's and Rad's interest...I did a check of my year-to-date results from off-course bets, i.e. TABs and Betfair.  So far my profit on outlay is in excess of 80 %.  It was just above 40% before last week's quaddie, and I don't expect to keep it at 80%.    Either way, I can't see my credit union matching that.  LOL.  Last year was a good year, as was the previous. As for on-course bets, I have no idea how I'm going...and have no desire to find out.  Because then I'll know what I spend at the bar.

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Recommend  Message 104 of 116 in Discussion 
From: parrapete Sent: 7/09/2005 2:58 PM
D'ont bet"on the murray"
D'ont bet with borrowed money
D'ont bet with your employer's money
.
 

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From: NineMSN Nicknamegratlog1 Sent: 7/09/2005 3:28 PM
I'm no expert on judging horses but this works for me. Some tracks work better than others.
 
I take something that is rated well and is from a good barrier.Does'nt matter if you do the rating yourself or take it from somewhere like Unitab , Sportsman or something similar. If they have a good jockey/trainer combo all the better.
eg Mushood at Doomben today has a rating of 96 from barrier 2. With paper odds of $25 it's worth a e/w bet imo.
Usually get a run for your money and is a quick way of having a bet if you do'nt have time to study the form.
 

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From: monologue Sent: 7/09/2005 3:50 PM
Like most good business dd
2 sets of books

I also find it hard to keep a record of my bets when I'm on track

Normally go out there to have say 6 or so bets but after partaking in a few ales this number can esculate

Offline westie

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« 2009-Jan-07, 10:26 PM Reply #8 »
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From: NineMSN Nicknameryanrumpy Sent: 7/09/2005 4:25 PM
My two bob's worth
1)  Have patience
2)  Greed is a downfall
3)  If losing,don't try & get out on the last race-there is no such thing as a last race
     They're on again tomorrow
4)  Probably the most important rule NEVER NEVER bet on credit
 
I was taught the above (plus heaps more advice) by my Grandfather & I've lasted  55 years plus "on the punt" and enjoyed it tremendously-I hope others can do likewise and get the same pleasure out of racing and racing folk as I've experienced.

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Recommend  Message 108 of 116 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN Nicknamegratlog1 Sent: 7/09/2005 4:33 PM
Ca'nt say that I've always obeyed the first 3 RR but the 4th I certainly have.
 
I been a victim of rule 4 in that I have quite often had a mate borrow a few dollars at the track and I'm still waiting for it back. Not long back a bloke I had'nt seen for years come up to me with twenty bucks that he owed me. I was shocked to get it back so told him to throw it on Go Gazza and I would go him halves. It got up and paid $35 on unitab so we got a good return. When your luck in as the saying goes.

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Recommend  Message 109 of 116 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameSmiley5110 Sent: 7/09/2005 7:19 PM
If you don't bet on credit, then not many people would have a bet. Most people are in debt for something or other whether it be morgtage, car loan or investments of some kind. I am no exception.
 
However, if you budget, and stick to it, then this is the way to go in my opinion. If you can afford to spend $1000 a year for instance on your hobby, then that is the size of your bank. You can't be serious unless you expect to win in any investments.
 
Whatever you do, you should have a definite bank put aside and never go outside that for your investing. If the bank builds up, then your bet size can build up. If it doesn't, then you better have a good look at your selecting method.

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From: NineMSN NicknameLuskin_Star© Sent: 7/09/2005 7:20 PM
Just to justify a previous post where I said there are a few horses trying to jump from maidens to Class 3 in Brisbane on a Wednesday. There were 3 of them today, all started short priced favourites, all were beaten.

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Recommend  Message 111 of 116 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN NicknameSmiley5110 Sent: 7/09/2005 8:29 PM
I noticed how the caller on Sky was more keen to put a slow on one of them after the race than before. Before the race he said that he thought the horse was a bit short in the market. After the race it was the worst price put up about any horse in twelve months. I wonder what he would have said if had won? Ah hindsight!! Isn't it wonderful.

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From: NineMSN Nicknameimadamant Sent: 7/09/2005 8:49 PM
I wrote this over 40 months ago...I haven't adjusted a thing.
 
 
do's
 
(1) allow an hour to do the form for each meeting.....this month I am up to my neck with work.....you won't see me posting tips because of it.....i won't have a bet if i haven't done the form......time is a huge factor.
(2) doing the form involves getting your hands on a good formguide....."the Sportsman" and "Racenet" are very good as they cover the essential info to pick winners.....such as Sire, Dam, Dam's Sire, at least its past 3 starts, record on all track and conditions, race tempo, weights, barriers, jockeys, trainers, prizemoney.....on the other hand if you are doing the form with the daily "herald sun" or "daily telegraph", then you either are a social punter, and just banking on luck.....or you don't take your punting seriously.
(3) record every bet you make.....break it down to bet types e.g win/place bets, trifectas, quinellas, doubles, quaddies.....try to review your week on the punt.....you would be amazed how good you are at some bet types, and completely hopeless in others.
(4) always save on your bet if you are awaiting a decent payout in a double/quaddie.....just to cover your bet at least
(5) i have a budget a day.....whether I am so far in front, or if i'm going through a run of outs.....my betting limit for the day remains unchanged.....it has been the same for 3 years now.
(6) if you consider yourself an astute judge, you wouldn't want anyone's opinion other than your own.....the only other people I consider that are consistently up to scratch are Tony Brassel ( he has the time to go to trials ), Wayne Wilson, Mark Shean, Ron Papps ( shit caller, top tipster ) and Steve Moran.
(7) try to be on track as much as possible.....I won't touch horses I've fancied pre race if they drift alarmingly.....e.g 7/2 out to 7/1.....not only are you taking grose unders at home, you'll find most of these drifters run down the track.
(8) keep a blackbook
(9) doubles and quaddies are my favourite exotic bets.....unbelievable overs are offered 90% of the time
(10) for each metro meeting I have at least 3 lays.....93 % strike rate......if anyone wants them on a saturday, let it be known to me by email or a thread......I've always done the form by midnight friday.
 
dont's
 
 
(1) don't listen to Hilton Donaldson
(2) more often than not a horse that is running over the same distance as at its previous run WILL NOT WIN if it hasn't raced within 16 days ( or 2 weeks)
 
form guide example
King Delamere
1600 metres- Flemington- 8/2/02- 1st of 15-  sp 6/1- good track
 
I would not back this horse in a 1600 metre race at its next start to WIN if it was to run after 24/2/02.
 
Yet if the horse was to step up to 1800 metres or 2000 metres...... I would give it a winning chance as long as it would have its next run within 23 days ( or 3 weeks ).....nothing later
 
exceptions to the rule
-International horses
- when a track is rated dead, I add 100 metres to the distance, when a track is rated slow or heavy then i add 200 metres to the race distance.
 
So if King Delamere was to have its next run on a Slow track over 1600 metres within 23 days ( 3 weeks ) of its last start.....I would then classify it a 1800 metre race, therefore on my theory it COULD WIN at its next start.
 
******* 1600 metres was just an example......this rule applies to all distances with the exception of 1000 metre races.....or horses resuming from a spell.
 
horses coming back in distance
 
I don't like horses coming back in distance as a rule.....their are a couple of exceptions though that DO work :-
 
On the example above......if King Delamere was to drop back in distance at its next start, to say a 1400 metre race.....I could only fancy it to WIN if
a) the horse has had a 3 week freshen up......not one, not 2.....not 4.....MUST BE 3
 
******yet if the track was to be slow in this situation, it would make it a 1600 metre race, therefore I would not expect it to WIN, as my theory says NOT TO BACK A HORSE THAT STARTS OVER THE SAME DISTANCE, IF 3 WEEKS HAVE ELAPSED
 
Their is no way I could explain this to you properly unless I was with you face to face with a form guide.....this is something I have come to observe and master over 15 years of punting.....it has been the main key to my BANKING !......remembering I have only started getting great profits the past 3-4 years ( my first 10 years on the punt were at a loss.....no control, no records....betting only on the adrenalin factor....young and reckless )......along with a broad knowledge of breeding ( I DON'T MEAN LIKE BRENDAN PARNELL )......just know your staying lines, with your short and middle distance blood lines and you're almost there.
 
I will say this until I'm Black or Blue......the punt is 70 % knowledge and 30 % luck
 
Sorry to confuse the s*it out of you all
 
Adam Ant

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From: NineMSN NicknameHeathledgerr1 Sent: 9/09/2005 8:06 PM
  My BIGGEST and SIMPLEST DO  is to register a centre racing account and bet best of three totes(odds to 1250..where i bet mostly)..and play quinella and exacta's when you think you have a race sorted out..split them around the states to maximise returns.
   Sportsbet offer best vic/nsw tab  odds..no limit great service too...always look at taking fixed odds if you fear a tote crunch.

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Recommend  Message 114 of 116 in Discussion 
From: NineMSN Nicknameover_the_odds Sent: 12/09/2005 3:04 PM
Never stop leanring - either from other well informed people, our from your own past records.
 
Which is why it's so important to keep as detailed records of your bets as you can stomach doing, becuase you never know what hidden talents you have as a punter that these records may uncover, or conversely what types of bets are holding you back for reaching your full potential.

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From: NineMSN Nickname_Umrum_ Sent: 12/09/2005 3:25 PM
Agter saturday:
 
check your tickets.
 
had the tri in the manikato.
 
1***4,5,10,11,12***4,5,10,11,12
 
didnt mark 12 all that clearly in the second box. marked it clearly in the third.
12 didnt come up in either box! only cost $6 instead of $10. didnt bother to check why?!!! between the tab and I cost myself $350. Luckily backed sparky straight out as well but still.

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From: monologue Sent: 12/09/2005 3:52 PM
Umrum
that should be nimber one rule but have to admit at times I'm too busy to check.

Happened once on my tele bet account.
Rang through to place a trifecta bet on a particular race and operator said I had already placed bet in that race.
When she read out the numbers for that race I had discovered an earlier tri I had put on was mistakenly put on the wrongrace.

being superstitious as I am I left the old numbers in but also added my new numbers for that race.

Yes you guessed it.
$1200. tri which I wouldn't have got but for the error of that operator.

Offline triple7

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« 2009-Dec-22, 09:31 AM Reply #9 »
Calgary's mention on another thread of using this time of the yr to review his approach prompted me to find this old thread (from past msn days).

Might generate some current discussion.

Offline Max Manewer

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« 2009-Dec-22, 10:28 AM Reply #10 »
Do check your pulse while the race your horse is running in, is in progress. If it's significantly higher than normal, you could be an adrenalin bettor. Not good !

Offline Bundy

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« 2009-Dec-22, 10:33 AM Reply #11 »
As Bart said, "if you aint nervous ya aint got enough on"  :biggrin:

Offline Tevez17

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« 2009-Dec-22, 10:35 AM Reply #12 »
Don't  :censored: chase!!

Offline GamblingMan

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« 2009-Dec-22, 11:23 AM Reply #13 »
DO back lots of winners and get good prices

DONT back lots of losers and compile long lists of silly rules

Not inventing a rocket here

  :lol:

Offline Max Manewer

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« 2009-Dec-22, 03:08 PM Reply #14 »
dont's
 
 
(1) don't listen to Hilton Donaldson
(2) more often than not a horse that is running over the same distance as at its previous run WILL NOT WIN if it hasn't raced within 16 days ( or 2 weeks)


Gawd, this bloke from the old forum knew his onions, musta been listening to too many Beatles'  songs.   :lol:

Offline OldLarsy

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« 2009-Dec-22, 03:28 PM Reply #15 »
Listened to the same song twice on the trot and added them together.

He obviously aint jfc   :lol:   :lol:   :lol:

He also says he wrote it 40 months ago, is that 3 years?  :bop:
« Last Edit: 2009-Dec-22, 03:30 PM by OldLarsy »

Offline andy40au

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« 2009-Dec-22, 08:40 PM Reply #16 »
OK - A Radical variance from most of the opinions here :-

a) Firstly Value means NOTHING unless you have an extremely good sense of market framing - and I mean extremely good! So although theoretically your on the right track by looking for value, I challenge anyone to assess markets accurately often enough to use a value based approach on its own.

b) Some ratings methods are misleading and do more harm than good. They encourage you to bet when you should be staying out. Without a very large dataset to test and test again the accuracy of ratings I wouldnt trust them at all, and theres plenty of average to poor ratings available out there.

So whats left? Well in my opinion you need to find variance - namely a statistically re-occurring attribute on form and race conditions that occurs so  often it doesnt matter that much if you get $4 or $7 if it wins because you only needed $2.50 - these are aout there but you need to do a lot of research to find them....sorry if this is a bit cryptic but Im not giving away all my secrets

Offline OldLarsy

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« 2009-Dec-22, 08:44 PM Reply #17 »
sorry if this is a bit cryptic but Im not giving away all my secrets

So you're another that wins on the punt?

Offline andy40au

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« 2009-Dec-22, 08:47 PM Reply #18 »
So you're another that wins on the punt?

I have a private subscription tipping service. Closed for membership now though so please dont ask!

Mark

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« 2009-Dec-22, 08:49 PM Reply #19 »
service. Closed for membership now though so please dont ask!

Hmm.. So what's it called?

Offline Max Manewer

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« 2009-Dec-22, 08:53 PM Reply #20 »
So you're another that wins on the punt?

Is that so improbable ?

Offline OldLarsy

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« 2009-Dec-22, 08:55 PM Reply #21 »
I have a private subscription tipping service. Closed for membership now though so please dont ask!

Did ya back Andy Said the other day?

Is that so improbable ?

No

Offline calgary

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« 2009-Dec-22, 09:07 PM Reply #22 »
Hmm.. So what's it called?

TAB share ownership?   :lol:

Mark

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« 2009-Dec-22, 09:09 PM Reply #23 »
TAB share ownership?   :lol:

lol  lol  lol

Offline Bubbasmith

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« 2009-Dec-22, 09:21 PM Reply #24 »
Andy, the propreitor of that 'close' private tipping service wrote...

"Firstly Value means NOTHING unless you have an extremely good sense of market framing - and I mean extremely good! So although theoretically your on the right track by looking for value, I challenge anyone to assess markets accurately often enough to use a value based approach on its own."

Many years ago a very successful punter told me if a punter constantly beat SP when placing his bets  betting would take care of itself. Not just beat SP but by a margin to cover the bookies over round.
This is a true story.Back in the pre TAB days the Thursday papers  contained a tipsters poll and had a prepost market that was actually bet by bookies at the Victoria Club.When the fields were published each Thurday afternoon he would wander down to the club and place bets with bookies based on the tipsters poll. If a horse was heavily tipped and it was out in the market he would back it. He did not care or worry about its form. He became so successful that bookies encouraged him to come and place his bets so that they could readjust their markets. They had no idea how he continually bet the odds, they even thought he has stable information.
He told me that the betting ring is where everyone who wants to place a bet meets on common ground.All the system punters, owners, trainers, desperates, smarties, even all those successful punters on this forum etc all have some influence on the betting market and that the SP is the most accurate reflection of a horses chances of winning.If a punter does no form but can anticipate market movements ( ie read the market ) he will win. The only difference I would change from his thoughts is that in today's betting enviroment I believe the betting ring has been probably been replaced by Betfair.


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