Channel 78 shows Victorian racing live and free every day and replays the days events through the night. I record the replays and review them at my leisure, noting those horses that take my eye as prospective winners. I enter them into a 'black book' provided by Punters.com and am notified of when they have been accepted in a race. I take note of the results and record them on my Black Book Account.xls spreadsheet.
If only it were that simple. It was that simple in July but after a flying start the series ultimately resulted in only finding 14 winners from 104 black book starters and a loss on turnover (at one win unit each) of 16.7%. Life wasn't meant to be that easy.
However that exercise in public humiliation proved to be most instructive and suggested that with the application of a few rules and a little discipline I may be able to salvage a viable method from the ruins.
The main things that jump out of the July results is that Metro Saturdays killed me
with only 4 winners from 40 starters.
The worst of it was Metro Saturdays when the runners were up in class : 24 starters 0 winners.
That means that Metro Saturday runners that raced in the same class (or down in class) returned 4 winners from 16 starters and even returned a profit of 14.3%.
On that basis I have decided not to abandon Metro Saturdays altogether but to run two black books, a Saturday book and a Midweek book.
The Saturday book will be collated from runners at Metro Saturday meetings, the Midweek book from all other meetings.
I will not follow a Midweek booker into a Metro Saturday start, and I will not follow a Metro Saturday booker if it rises in class.
If I applied those rules to July the results of the two books would have been :
Metro Saturdays (not rising in class) : 16 sts 4 wins 14.3% POT
Midweek : 64 sts 10 wins 7.8% POT
The second thing that jumps out at me is that following bookers beyond their initial start is unprofitable
: 22 starters 0 wins (initial runs = 82 starters 14 wins 6.4% POT).
Applying the above rules and excluding runners after their initial blackbook start resulted in -
Metro Saturdays (initial runs not up in class) : 12 sts 4 wins 52.5% POT
Midweek (initial runs) : 48 sts 10 wins 43.7% POT (initial runs not up in class) 25 sts 7 wins 59.6% POT
Now that is more like it.
The singular exception to a rule that horses shouldn't be supported after their initial blackbook start is that they should be supported at their second subsequent start if they drop back in class. While applying this filter does not find any further winners in the July account horses having their second subsequent start down in class produced 3 placings from 6 starts and suggests potential to find winners in the future.
I have also introduced some other sundry rules on the basis of the July research -
- No horse shall be supported if its break since its previous run is more than 28 days
- No horse shall be black booked from 0-58 class
- No horse shall be supported if its subsequent run is interstate
And I am considering other rules to further refine the process including
- Price control, disqualifying horses from support if they are < $3.00 (or even <$4.00)
- [Limiting my scope to a 200km radius of Melbourne (the Warrnambool - Echuca - Sale ring)/li]
but not yet.