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Offline tontonan

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O.P. « 2015-Aug-02, 04:25 PM »
The Black Book Project is one man's attempt to evolve a set of rules and procedures for a viable method of 'black booking' winners.
It began on the Victorian Video Watch thread on the Vic Gallops thread in July and was an abject failure... but I learned a lot.
On the basis of what I learned I have move to the second phase of the project and developed a set of rules in order to refine my methods.
This thread will detail those methods, record the black book selections and results in my never ending quest to find winners without ever opening a form guide.

AUGUST SCOREBOARD

15-Aug STS WINS Strike IN +/- POT DIV
METRO 11 4 36.4% 12.4 1.4 12.7% $3.10
OTHER 28 6 21.4% 26.8 -1.2 -4.3% $4.47
TOTAL 39 10 25.6% 39.2 0.2 0.5% $3.92
« Last Edit: 2015-Aug-15, 08:29 PM by tontonan »

Offline tontonan

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« 2015-Aug-02, 04:30 PM Reply #1 »
THE METHOD

Channel 78 shows Victorian racing live and free every day and replays the days events through the night.  I record the replays and review them at my leisure, noting those horses that take my eye as prospective winners.  I enter them into a 'black book' provided by Punters.com and am notified of when they have been accepted in a race. I take note of the results and record them on my Black Book Account.xls spreadsheet.

If only it were that simple.  It was that simple in July but after a flying start the series ultimately resulted in only finding 14 winners from 104 black book starters and a loss on turnover (at one win unit each) of 16.7%.  Life wasn't meant to be that easy.

However that exercise in public humiliation proved to be most instructive and suggested that with the application of a few rules and a little discipline I may be able to salvage a viable method from the ruins.  

The main things that jump out of the July results is that Metro Saturdays killed me with only 4 winners from 40 starters.
The worst of it was Metro Saturdays when the runners were up in class : 24 starters 0 winners.
That means that Metro Saturday runners that raced in the same class (or down in class) returned 4 winners from 16 starters and even returned a profit of 14.3%.

On that basis I have decided not to abandon Metro Saturdays altogether but to run two black books, a Saturday book and a Midweek book.

The Saturday book will be collated from runners at Metro Saturday meetings, the Midweek book from all other meetings.
I will not follow a Midweek booker into a Metro Saturday start, and I will not follow a Metro Saturday booker if it rises in class.

If I applied those rules to July the results of the two books would have been :

Metro Saturdays (not rising in class) : 16 sts 4 wins 14.3% POT
Midweek : 64 sts 10 wins 7.8% POT

The second thing that jumps out at me is that following bookers beyond their initial start is unprofitable : 22 starters 0 wins (initial runs = 82 starters 14 wins 6.4% POT).

Applying the above rules and excluding runners after their initial blackbook start resulted in -

Metro Saturdays (initial runs not up in class) : 12 sts 4 wins 52.5% POT
Midweek (initial runs) : 48 sts 10 wins 43.7% POT (initial runs not up in class) 25 sts 7 wins 59.6% POT

Now that is more like it.

The singular exception to a rule that horses shouldn't be supported after their initial blackbook start is that they should be supported at their second subsequent start if they drop back in class. While applying this filter does not find any further winners in the July account horses having their second subsequent start down in class produced 3 placings from 6 starts and suggests potential to find winners in the future.

I have also introduced some other sundry rules on the basis of the July research -

  • No horse shall be supported if its break since its previous run is more than 28 days
  • No horse shall be black booked from 0-58 class
  • No horse shall be supported if its subsequent run is interstate

And I am considering other rules to further refine the process including

  • Price control, disqualifying horses from support if they are < $3.00 (or even <$4.00)
  • [Limiting my scope to a 200km radius of Melbourne (the Warrnambool - Echuca - Sale ring)/li]
but not yet.


« Last Edit: 2015-Aug-02, 04:32 PM by tontonan »

Offline tontonan

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« 2015-Aug-02, 04:36 PM Reply #2 »
So without further ado....

THE NEW RULES OF THE BLACK BOOK PROJECT
August 2015



SELECTION CRITERIA

I watch every race with a view to identifying :

  • HARD LUCK STORIES : horses that for want of luck would have won, could have won or should have won the race they were contesting, and very likely would, could or should win a race of the same class (or lower) next time given neutral luck; Hard Luck Stories are NOT to be supported when rising in class.

  • PROGRESSIVE WINNERS : horses that won sufficiently well to suggest that they would, could or should be able to step up a grade and win again; Progressive Winners should NOT be supported when rising more than one grade in class.

  • BACK ME NEXT TIMES : horses that did not win or endure 'hard luck' on the occasion they were booked but performed well enough to suggest that with neutral luck and favourable circumstances they would be winning chances in a race of the same class (or lower) next time. Back Me Next Times should NOT be supported when rising in class.

  • SECOND CHANCE : horses that failed to win at the initial black book start but drop back in class at their subsequent start. Horses may also be rebooked and supported at their subsequent start in the same class if I deem their initial performance worthy.

Note 1: As a rule horses from the book are only supported at their subsequent start if they conform to the class criteria. If they do not meet the class criteria at their initial subsequent start they are not supported but retained in the book and may be supported at their following start if they drop back to a suitable class.
Note 2:  Black book runners MAY be rebooked under any of the above criteria if their run warrants it according to any of the above criteria.

METRO SATURDAY & MIDWEEK BOOKS

I operate two black books : One for Metropolitan Saturday meetings and one for all other meetings known as the Midweek book.
The reason for the split is that horses black booked from midweek meetings have proven unprofitable when followed when rising class into Metropolitan Saturday races but horses black booked on a Metro Saturday have performed well at subsequent Metro Saturday meetings.
Horses black booked Midweek may rise in class but not on a Metro Saturday.
 
A horse black booked on a Metro Saturday will be supported if its subsequent start is Midweek and the result will be accounted for in the Midweek week account.

GENERAL RULES

  • MULTIPLE RUNNERS : This is still a problem for me although the new rules I have instituted should reduce the incidence of multiple runners considerably.
    In July 6 of 56 starters won in races with multiple runners (25 races). Those most prominent in the market won 3 of 25 ($14.70), the second most prominent won 3 of 25 ($30.30) and those third or fourth most prominent won 0 of 5 . It is interesting that if the two most prominent in the market were supported each way 51 starters returned a small profit. Preferring one runner over the other was a spectacular failure in July. Quite frankly I don't know what to do. Until I do I will support the top two multiple runners in the market each way until I do.

  • DAYS SINCE LAST RUN / SPELLS : Horses with a break of more than 28 days between starts are dropped from the book.

  • 0-58 CLASS : These are failed and unreliable racehorses. I do not book them.

  • INTERSTATE : One a few occasions black bookers were taken interstate for their subsequent start. All but one was scratched in Sydney but one raced in Adelaide and ran second. As a rule black bookers will NOT be followed if their subsequent start is interstate.

  • SACKINGS : As a rule horses are booked for only one subsequent start and automatically 'sacked' but the SECOND CHANCE criteria apply to horses that drop back in class at their subsequent start or if their initial performance is deemed worthy and they present for a race of the same class subsequently.


  • WINNERS : Horses that win at their initial start are NOT automatically retained in the book. The SECOND CHANCE criteria applies. However a horse that wins its initial start can be rebooked on the basis of that start (i.e. if I assess that they are capable of rising another grade).

« Last Edit: 2015-Aug-03, 03:36 AM by tontonan »

Offline tontonan

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« 2015-Aug-02, 04:38 PM Reply #3 »
SATURDAY 1 AUGUST

That would be right. The first Saturday I don't put up the bookers the first three - Petit Filous, Vatuvei and Demonstrate - win.  Maybe it's me. Kiss of death.

Applying the new rules was a success.  Under the old rules there were 13 starters but 8 losers successfully eliminated, playing by the new rules.

Deja Blue and Classy Chanel were eliminated because they were rising in class into a Metro Saturday - both outclassed and unplaced.
Tequila At Midnite was eliminated as he was having his third subsequent run - unplaced
At First Sight was eliminated because he was rising in class on a Metro Saturday (BM90->Hcp) - unplaced
Carbon Cut was eliminated because he was 28 days between runs and a 0-58 rater - unplaced
Raposo, a metro Saturday winner for the book was eliminated because he too was rising in class on Metro Saturday (3YO hcp->Open hcp) - 2nd
Kiwi Kate was eliminated as she was having her second subsequent start in the same grade - unplaced
Princely Heart was eliminated because he too was a 0-58 rater having his second subsequent start - 3rd

That left me with 5 qualifiers -

Petit Filous     WON ($1.30 & $1.30)  technically a Midweek booker but she actually dropped in class from a handicap to a BM78.  Very short and would have been eliminated had I deployed the proposed price control rule.
Demonstrate   WON ($5.50 & $1.80) a 'second chance' horse who dropped back in class from his run at Flemington from a handicap to BM78
Vishaka       UNPL  No excuses.

Vatuvei  WON   ($4.20 & $3.20) booked as a jumper, his subsequent flat run was disregarded
Flying Star  4th  - technically he did not qualify under the 28 day rule but I used my discretion to include him.  Wrong. Very unlucky not to win though and I have rebooked him as a HLS.



SUNDAY 2 AUGUST

At Bairnsdale Better Call Saul was nominated under the old rules but eliminated under the new rules.  Scratched in any case.

At Horsham, in about 45 minutes Our Bottino is about to go around and fully qualified. --------> Absolutely bolted in.  Nothing like the $4.20 that was readily available early but slayed them ! 7 lengths
« Last Edit: 2015-Aug-02, 11:55 PM by tontonan »

Offline tontonan

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« 2015-Aug-04, 01:36 AM Reply #4 »
Just one from the book today...

Geelong Synthetic R7 2200m, 4:20pm
1 BOILED EGG  (2)  Patrick Moloney   Tom Hughes  $10.00 -> $8.00  Sportsbet (WIN maiden)

Is a 0-58 a lower grade than a maiden ?  It always makes for an interesting argument but for my purposes it is.  Boiled Egg won his maiden over 1900m at Geelong on 14 July 1.65 seconds quicker than the 0-58 on the same day.   Down among the 0-58s over 2200m and on the synthetic he looks well suited despite the topweight 60kg - but that is an 8.5kg reduction on what he carried last time under highweight conditions.   He's drawn 2, settles back and showed a bit of dash last time, and has the serves of Pat Moloney.  Opened $10, into $8 and is likely to get shorter on the day.   

Offline Ascot

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« 2015-Aug-04, 08:30 AM Reply #5 »
Tonto, will watch with interest. Couple of points:

1.  A successful punter once taught me that it is easier to find winners at a Vic country Mdn on a Friday then it is in a Melb Sat Hcp.  My experience with that edict is totally true.  The reasons are pretty obvious, less competition and even the good ones have to start winning somewhere.

2.  Suggest ignore the country highweight Mdns or 58's.  They are the bottom of the barrel in jockey skill and horse ability.  Very few ever take the next step.

3.  Most Blackbooker fans will usually tab a horse that stands out a fair bit e.g. blocked for a run and unlucky or swoops late and looks spectacular.  My experience is those types will often produce the same performance next time.  They are usually backmarkers who will find trouble everytime they race.  Dashiel is the perfect example.  By contrast I look for simply good solid runs, which could be anything but usually an on pace type or just off who is not all that spectacular in the last 400M.  The trainer will often be pleased with the effort and seek to place the horse to win next time, often a drop in class to make sure e.g. a solid run btn less than 3L in a R70 will be a good thing next time in a R64, irrespective of the weight rise.  This is the beauty of the benchmark system in Vic.

4.  I have a personal preference to avoid (for BlackBooking OR betting in) country races where most horses are trained by local stables or there is no signature stable runners (i.e Weir, Alderson, Oliver, Smerdon etc).  Take the Hayes runners out of Geelong R1 today and you will see what I mean.  In my experience, these stables are battlers with poorly bred / repaired horses with limited ability.  Absolute trap races that can produce 50/1 winners you could never predict.

   

Offline tontonan

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« 2015-Aug-04, 10:05 PM Reply #6 »
Excellent advice Ascot.

1.  A successful punter once taught me that it is easier to find winners at a Vic country Mdn on a Friday then it is in a Melb Sat Hcp.  My experience with that edict is totally true.  The reasons are pretty obvious, less competition and even the good ones have to start winning somewhere.

Indeed. That is essentially my rationale.  But I am reluctant to give up Metropolitan Saturdays altogether so I am running two books in August, one dedicated to Metro Saturdays, the other to all else. The July data suggests if I keep them apart both may be profitable - basically by not following provincial form to town.  I'll see how this stands up in August.

2.  Suggest ignore the country highweight Mdns or 58's.  They are the bottom of the barrel in jockey skill and horse ability.  Very few ever take the next step.

I have covered this in the 'new rules'.  Boiled Egg today was the exception to the rule - and failed.  I prefer my horses more runny than that. Ditching the 0-58s makes my life easier too as I don't need to bother myself with them at all.

3.  Most Blackbooker fans will usually tab a horse that stands out a fair bit e.g. blocked for a run and unlucky or swoops late and looks spectacular.  My experience is those types will often produce the same performance next time.  They are usually backmarkers who will find trouble every time they race.  Dashiel is the perfect example.  By contrast I look for simply good solid runs, which could be anything but usually an on pace type or just off who is not all that spectacular in the last 400M.  The trainer will often be pleased with the effort and seek to place the horse to win next time, often a drop in class to make sure e.g. a solid run btn less than 3L in a R70 will be a good thing next time in a R64, irrespective of the weight rise.  This is the beauty of the benchmark system in Vic.

Your 3 length guide is interesting.  I draw a line across every result 4.5 lengths from the winner. I call it the 'class line', a kind of medium. The closer the line is to winner or a horse close to the winner the more interested I am in following them on to the next grade.

The 'tease', the horse that is always finishing on but never winning, and the 'Jonah', the horse that is habitually unlucky are types I am wary of.  However, my 'Hard Luck Stories' are my most profitable criteria - but I take your point.  I have found out the hard way that some of the unlucky horses I have booked are habitually poor beginners, simply not genuine or in other ways their own worst enermies. I hope to get better at weeding them out.

4.  I have a personal preference to avoid (for BlackBooking OR betting in) country races where most horses are trained by local stables or there is no signature stable runners (i.e Weir, Alderson, Oliver, Smerdon etc).  Take the Hayes runners out of Geelong R1 today and you will see what I mean.  In my experience, these stables are battlers with poorly bred / repaired horses with limited ability.  Absolute trap races that can produce 50/1 winners you could never predict.

I made mention of an as yet unapplied rule regarding narrowing my scope to a 200km radius of Melbourne (the Warrnambool - Echuca - Sale ring) and a good part of the reason is contained in your point. But the Geelong example is a good one (and proved to be so too).

Offline Hareeba

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« 2015-Aug-04, 11:26 PM Reply #7 »
3 lengths is a lot. I use 1.5.lengths for a class change. Horses dropping in class lose a lot if beaten several lengths.

Offline tontonan

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« 2015-Aug-05, 11:24 AM Reply #8 »



The blackbook coughed up 9 acceptances for racing's return to Sandown, two were scratched (Magnatune & Proclaimation) and another couple were eliminated under the new rules leaving 5 horses in two races which brings me back to the perennial problem of multiple black book runners in the same race.

I was hoping the new rules would reduce the incidence of multiple runners so that I could duck then question.  However it is systemic that well performed horses from the provincials are bound to end up contesting the better purses even in restricted races in midweek metropolitan meetings. I need to deal with it.

I am loathe to support two horses in the one race as one is bound to lose even in the best case scenario taking a point off my dividend.  In the worst case both lose and I double my losses.  So either I must choose between them on a discretionary basis or have some method of singling one out.  The problem is that my attempts at preferring one runner in these situations in July was a spectacular failure.  Not only did I tend to prefer the shortest priced alternative, the longest priced alternative had a habit of winning.

However the July data also revealed that if I removed horses up in class from the multiple runners the array returned a profit.  The July data also showed a profit if horses booked as 'hard luck stories' (not rising in class) were preferred.  Letting the data make my decisions for me I have come up with :

Sandown Hillside R5 BM70 f&m 1500m, 3:03pm  
7 HAYITE  (15) Harry Coffey   Darren Weir   $13.00  (same class)
Alternative runner : UNASSAILED (up in class, first in market)

Sandown Hillside R7 BM64 1400m, 4:20pm  
12 JOADJA  (9) Brad Rawiller   Darren Weir   $4.40  (booked at HLS, same class)  
Alternative runners :  ROBBIES STAR (rises in class)  CHAT TO MAGGIE (3rd in the market)

Other bookers engaged today but eliminated under the new rules : ROYAL FANTASY (rises 3 grades)

Note :  I acknowledge that in the new rules I said I would support multiple runners each way but I really can't have that.

« Last Edit: 2015-Aug-05, 01:46 PM by tontonan »

Offline Hareeba

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« 2015-Aug-05, 11:38 AM Reply #9 »
Do you apply any barrier rules?

Offline tontonan

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« 2015-Aug-05, 12:40 PM Reply #10 »
No, not yet any way.  It is entirely hit and miss in most respects.  I have started from the most general, undisciplined approach (i.e. July) and intend on honing it down over time.  The new rules are the first hone.

I don't even consider the horses in the context of the competition (except in the most general class terms).  Weight, track conditions, barriers, have not been factored.  The survey is designed to fall on its arse (and after a period of defiance in July that is exactly what it did).  It is an exercise in automatically following 'eye catchers' into their subsequent start - and quite frankly, I expect it to fail. 

So why do I do it ?  Along the way I learn a thing or two that might cultivate productive habits in a more discretionary application of black booking further down the track.  Those aspects that don't fail, that I can salvage from the experience are what it is all about.

Offline tontonan

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« 2015-Aug-06, 11:36 AM Reply #11 »
HAYITE was awful. She didn't handle the track and pulled up lame.   
JOADJA wasn't far away and third but didn't help her cause by laying in
It was glad I only had two for the day. 

The Sandown course was downgraded from Slow6 to Slow7 but raced worse than that

Today at Seymour we face a Heavy10 with 3 starters in 3 races (yesterdays prices)

Seymour R3 3YO Maiden 1600m, 1:03pm
11 ROCHIE ROSIE  (14)  Craig Newitt   John & Chris Ledger    SCRATCHED

Seymour R6 BM64 1300m, 2:48pm
9 THREE GORGES  (13) Anthony Boyd (a2)   Danny O'Brien   $6.00      
Won his maiden here on the heavy, claim helps. Wide draw may not be such a bad thing on the heavy track

Seymour R7 BM70 1600m, 3:25pm
2 MAGNATUNE  (9) Aaron Mitchell (a1.5)   Jason Warren   $2.60      
Scratched from Sandown for this. Up a grade on his MV win on a heavy8.

Seymour R8 BM64 2000m, 4:05pm
1 CANDEO  (1) Dwayne Dunn   Peter Moody   $5.00   
Good win on the synthetic at Pakenham.  Unknown on heavy.  Out to 2000m for the first time, but bred to it.
 

Online Authorized

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« 2015-Aug-06, 02:38 PM Reply #12 »
Saw one I think might be worth following. He looked a torrid ride for Damien Thornton - Gunga Galunga race 4 Seymour. 

Offline Hareeba

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« 2015-Aug-06, 03:25 PM Reply #13 »
I found that vic racing channel. Long breaks between races though.

Offline tontonan

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« 2015-Aug-07, 12:53 PM Reply #14 »
I hate heavy tracks.  All three bookers were unplaced at Seymour yesterday and I am glad to be going back to the Pakenham poly, but with only one runner...

Pakenham Synthetic R8 BM64 2200m, 3:28pm
6 METEORBOUND  (3)  Vlad Duric   Peter Moody  $4.80  Bet365   

I am not entirely sure what to do about this one.  He was booked after a good second behind the in form Boogielicious at Geelong in a 2000m BM64 then went to Adelaide to run second in a 1950m BM70, and I didn't see the run.  He returns to Pakenham where he won his 1580m Maiden three starts back, drops back to BM64 class, but rises to 2200m.  He is by Northern Meteor.

I refer to the new rules :

INTERSTATE : One a few occasions black bookers were taken interstate for their subsequent start. All but one was scratched in Sydney but one raced in Adelaide and ran second. As a rule black bookers will NOT be followed if their subsequent start is interstate.

SACKINGS : As a rule horses are booked for only one subsequent start and automatically 'sacked' but the SECOND CHANCE criteria apply to horses that drop back in class at their subsequent start or if their initial performance is deemed worthy and they present for a race of the same class subsequently.


and find an anomaly.

The Interstate rule is poorly worded.  The intention was to not support bookers that are taken interstate to race not eliminate them from the book altogether because they have started interstate. 
Under the Sackings rule it seems he qualifies as he is dropping back in class after his subsequent start from being booked.  Although I didn't see his subsequent start in Adelaide his second to Zahspeed seemed a credible performance in the higher grade so I am going to have him today but I remind myself that of 25 'second chance' starters only two have won.

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« 2015-Aug-07, 01:06 PM Reply #15 »
I will be backing Meteorbound.

$4.40 looks good enough to me.

Interesting he traces back to Seabiscuit.

Offline tontonan

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« 2015-Aug-07, 02:05 PM Reply #16 »
May his ancestors give him strength.

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« 2015-Aug-07, 03:11 PM Reply #17 »
Took him in a double earlier today at $4.40 he is out to $5.00 now.  :sweat:

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« 2015-Aug-07, 03:33 PM Reply #18 »
That just confirms what I think of Peter Moody and too many Australian trainers with middle distant and staying types.


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« 2015-Aug-07, 03:58 PM Reply #19 »
Jeez I am a bad sport.   :biggrin:

Offline tontonan

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« 2015-Aug-07, 10:56 PM Reply #20 »
He was dreadful.  He had the box seat but pulled hard and did not run it out.   Drifted in the market to start $6.50

Yet another failure from a 2nd chance selection.  Terrible effort from the bookers through the week which is supposed to be its strength. 

  The last 7 starters have produced just 1 placing.  I am feeling like the Australian cricket team.    :shy:

Offline tontonan

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« 2015-Aug-08, 12:03 PM Reply #21 »
Inspired by the Australian cricket team I am padding up for another day of humiliation...

Flemington R1 BM70 1400m, 12:10pm
1 GREDINGTON   Ryan Maloney   Pat Hyland   $13.00     ........................8th

Flemington R2  HCP 1400m, 12:45pm
4 CHARMED HARMONY  (4)  Thomas Sadler   John Sadler  $1.80  Bet365   ......WON

Flemington R5 BM84 2000m, 2:30pm
8 BLACK TOMAHAWK  (7) Jake Bayliss   Michael Moroney  $8.50  Sportsbet ..... 3rd

Flemington R6 BM78 1400m, 3:10pm
20 VOLONTIERS  (16)  -   Robbie Laing  $13.00  Bet365    Scratched

Flemington R8 BM84 1000m, 4:30pm
2 TANSY  (9)  Damian Lane   Byron Cozamanis  $12.00  Bet365 ...................3rd

Flemington R9 BM84 2000m, 5:05pm
* 7 ITERATION  (2)  Dwayne Dunn   David Hayes & Tom Dabernig  $5.50  Bet365  ...............Last
9 MELALEUCA  (5)  Dean Holland   Terry & Karina O'Sullivan  $17.00  Bet365  


There were a couple discounted under the new rules including Bon Aurum (up in class Metro Saturday) who ran 3rd in the first (paid $3.70) and So Does He who won impressively at Horsham last Sunday who has been discounted on the same basis in race 6 but is flying...  4th, but well and truly retained in the book after a rugged run to the line

In the last I have two starters and I will tempt fate by preferring Iteration one out. .............box seated and dropped out to finish long last.  Something wrong there
« Last Edit: 2015-Aug-09, 01:39 PM by tontonan »

Offline tontonan

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« 2015-Aug-09, 12:44 PM Reply #22 »
Ballarat R2 3400m, 1:18pm
7 VATUVEI  (7)  Tom Ryan   Peter Moody    ...................WON    $3.30  

Ballarat R6 BM64 1600m, 3:43pm
5 TOM PUSS  (5)  Damien Oliver   Byron Cozamanis ........................6th 
7 FLYING STAR  (7)  Anthony Boyd   Pat McKenna  ..........................Last

Ballarat R7 BM70 1000m, 4:19pm
9 ROYAL FANTASY  (2)  Dean Yendall   Matthew Williams................6th  

« Last Edit: 2015-Aug-09, 05:35 PM by tontonan »

Offline tontonan

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« 2015-Aug-10, 12:16 AM Reply #23 »
Swan Hill Race 5 BM70 1200m 2:35pm

4 LORD ESPRIT (10) Thomas Sadler  Andrew Noblet  $2.30

Looks well placed down in class to BM70. Second chance.  (note : Only 1 of 7 starters under the 2nd chance rule has won.)



A review of the month so far reveals that after 21 starters (6 wins)  three things are evident : 

1. While the new rules have reduced the number of losers on Metropolitan Saturdays and improved my strike rate the average dividend is too low to sustain a profit.

2. The guts has dropped out of the Midweek (Sun-Fri) book and 8 of the 10 losers have been downright disappointing causing me to doubt the quality of my selections.

3. The 'second chance' rule has produced 6 losers from 7 starters and five of those losers have been most disappointing.  I can considering striking out the 'second chance' rule altogether.

Some failures have been chronic - due to flaws with the horses, either that they are too 'hot' or pull - and virtually all of them have been on Heavy tracks. I have a phobia about heavy tracks at the best of times and I would be better off to avoid them altogether, but the synthetics haven't exactly come to my rescue either (0/2) after having served me well in July (4/24 but profitable both win and place).

As I am still exploring this method I need to be prepared to let it run come what may but I will be noting track condition in the data.  In July I was 2/19 on heavy tracks, and both winners were at the Valley which was officially a Heavy8 but did not really race like it. Beyond the Valley I was 0/14 on genuinely heavy tracks at Warrnambool, Geelong, Cranbourne and Wodonga.  So far in August I am 2/8 on the heavy and both those wins were Vatuvei in hurdle races.



Offline Hareeba

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« 2015-Aug-10, 01:28 AM Reply #24 »
Lord Esprit is my selection too. Very short though.


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