Author Topic: Greyhound Selections & Talk (Read 8472 times)

Wenona · O.P. « 2017-Jun-22, 02:38 PM »

Thread for greyhound selections and thoughts on current races.

Wenona · « 2017-Jun-22, 02:41 PM **Reply #1** »

My 'puter ratings for Shep today :

Shepparton   R3   D7   Jack Cherry    $3.10
        D2   Hillbilly Spunk    $5.75
        D5   Will Dazzle     $6.50

Shepparton   R4   D1   Fess Crockett    $3.10
        D3   Justa Jezza    $4.50
        D2   Kraken Lil     $4.60
        D6   All Inn Layla    $6.00

Shepparton   R5   D5   Minka's Destiny    $3.00
        D8   Bald Wal     $4.60
        D7   Sally's Treasure    $5.80

Shepparton   R6   D5   Tat Scooby    $3.10
        D3   Blazing Lane    $5.20
        D7   Beejay's Lass    $5.30

Shepparton   R7   D2   Minotaur     $3.80
        D6   All Inn Tara    $4.10
        D8   Claretown Boris    $5.30

Shepparton   R8   D8   Perfect Rider    $3.30
        D1    Can't line up form

Shepparton   R9   D5   Our Turbo Girl    $2.80
        D1   Chillby     $4.80
        D2   Cruising Suzie    $6.70

Shepparton   R10   D1   Lodge's Express    $4.40
        D8   Octo Burn     $4.90
        D5   Arctic Blaze    $7.00

Shepparton   R11   D1   Banjo Barbie    $3.40
        D5   Karise Fusileer    $5.50
        D8   Bert's Special    $6.50

PoisonPen7 · « 2017-Jun-24, 07:20 PM **Reply #2** »

Ladbrokes have a Top Tote + 20% promotion on Race 8 at Wenty tonight.

Reckon the 1 dog would have to fall asleep in the boxes to get beat.

wily ole dog · « 2017-Jun-24, 07:34 PM **Reply #3** »

The 7s the only danger

Gintara · « 2017-Jun-24, 08:24 PM **Reply #4** »

He's steady early PP.

The 2 normally comes out like a rocket, last start it uncharacteristically missed it and I'd doubt it will do it. Probably not going well enough to win but has enough speed to cut off the red. Granted with luck in running he'd be hard to beat.

4 & 5 are slow early and I think your problem Wily will be the 6, comes out good and may just annoy the 7 who has a terrible record off wide boxes.
My picks the 3, currently $8.50, has been a model of consistency since making it back from injury. Can see him landing outside the 2 and holding the 6 & 7. He'll pounce down the back but it will be whether he can pick a break from the 1.

Anyway enjoy the + 20%, that mob is weak as

water

wily ole dog · « 2017-Jun-24, 09:25 PM **Reply #5** »

Don't worry about it gin. Apparently you Just have to be happy because if they did bother to take your bet their rake would few a couple of % less on that $25 bet

Skybeau · « 2017-Jun-30, 10:10 AM **Reply #6** »

Quote from: Wenona on 2017-Jun-22, 02:41 PM

My 'puter ratings for Shep today :

Shepparton   R3   D7   Jack Cherry    $3.10
        D2   Hillbilly Spunk    $5.75
        D5   Will Dazzle     $6.50

Shepparton   R4   D1   Fess Crockett    $3.10
        D3   Justa Jezza    $4.50
        D2   Kraken Lil     $4.60
        D6   All Inn Layla    $6.00

Shepparton   R5   D5   Minka's Destiny    $3.00
        D8   Bald Wal     $4.60
        D7   Sally's Treasure    $5.80

Shepparton   R6   D5   Tat Scooby    $3.10
        D3   Blazing Lane    $5.20
        D7   Beejay's Lass    $5.30

Shepparton   R7   D2   Minotaur     $3.80
        D6   All Inn Tara    $4.10
        D8   Claretown Boris    $5.30

Shepparton   R8   D8   Perfect Rider    $3.30
        D1    Can't line up form

Shepparton   R9   D5   Our Turbo Girl    $2.80
        D1   Chillby     $4.80
        D2   Cruising Suzie    $6.70

Shepparton   R10   D1   Lodge's Express    $4.40
        D8   Octo Burn     $4.90
        D5   Arctic Blaze    $7.00

Shepparton   R11   D1   Banjo Barbie    $3.40
        D5   Karise Fusileer    $5.50
        D8   Bert's Special    $6.50

What factors are you using to rate them Wenona? My big 3 for dogs is class, early speed and boxes.

PoisonPen7 · « 2017-Jun-30, 10:20 AM **Reply #7** »

For a bit of fun I've been reviewing the video form of dogs that have only had one or two starts and making a judgement call on whether there is a reason to back them.

After only 11 bets (don't get the time every day) and using a $5 place bet unit I'm up around 25% clear profit on a strike rate of around 50%.

Date	Dog	Venue	Race	Box	Amount	Finished	Outlay	Dividend	Return	Profit/(Loss)	Running
18/06/17	Golden Gown	Mt Gambier	1	8	$3.00	4	$5.00	$0.00	$0.00	-$5.00	-$5.00
18/06/17	Another Shiner	Sale	2	3	$3.00	3	$5.00	$4.50	$22.50	$17.50	$12.50
18/06/17	Psy Goanna	Sale	3	2	$3.00	4	$5.00	$0.00	$0.00	-$5.00	$7.50
19/06/17	Out To Strike	Bathurst	6	8	$3.00	1	$5.00	$1.30	$6.50	$1.50	$9.00
19/06/17	Rhyhym Taboo	Shepparton	10	4	$3.00	2	$5.00	$2.10	$10.50	$5.50	$14.50
19/06/17	Blenile Breeze	Ballarat	1	8	$3.00	8	$5.00	$0.00	$0.00	-$5.00	$9.50
19/06/17	Mrs Jawa	Traralgon	1	7	$3.00	2	$5.00	$2.20	$11.00	$6.00	$15.50
21/06/17	Irinka Suzie	Maitland	2	1	$3.00	0	$5.00	$0.00	$0.00	-$5.00	$10.50
21/06/17	Astella	Maitland	2	4	$3.00	0	$5.00	$0.00	$0.00	-$5.00	$5.50
29/06/17	Bula Supaguse	Maitland	2	3	$3.00	3	$5.00	$3.80	$19.00	$14.00	$19.50
29/06/17	Hurricane Oscar	Dapto	1	9	$3.00	0	$5.00	$0.00	$0.00	-$5.00	$14.50

The availability of videos makes form assessment so much easier than it used to be.

Wenona · « 2017-Jul-07, 08:22 PM **Reply #8** »

Bendigo Cup looks a great race tonight .....

I've got

Zinzan Brooke 7/4

Jesaulenko 3/1

So I'll be on both of those.

Wenona · « 2017-Jul-09, 04:51 PM **Reply #9** »

Interesting runner in Race 4 at Sale this afternoon.

Perfect Storm - had five starts winning two but also has run last a couple of times.

Two runs back at Sale won over 440m in 24.58 by nine lengths - sectional of 5.39 coming home in 29.19.

Jesaulenko won a couple of races later that night running .05 quicker and coming home in 29.29 on the bunny.

Even when Jesaulenko won in 24.39 in November he came home in 29.20.

So Perfect Storm obviously has a huge engine but is still learning.

It;s a 6th Grade tonight and the one and eight have a lot of early toe tonight so he'll have to give them a start but if he gets some clear room it could be one to watch.

Wenona · « 2017-Jul-09, 07:06 PM **Reply #10** »

Big effort again tonight and was able to get matched at $3.35 on Betfair.

arakaan · « 2017-Jul-09, 08:33 PM **Reply #11** »

Watched its runs. It'll be brilliant from the 7 and 8. Got lucky tonight having only the 8 as a speed dog and getting a clear path to the middle of the track. That's where it has found trouble in its losses.

Will struggle from the inside later as it moves up in grade I feel.

Wenona · « 2017-Jul-24, 04:10 PM **Reply #12** »

Why aren't there rules that compel young dogs that fight to trial with other dogs before returning to racing.

Case in point - Magic Seal in race 2 at Traralgon today.

First up today - here is her last race - in the red box - watch her in the straight.

https://fasttrack.grv.org.au/RaceVideo/RaceVideo/126796086

Has a brilliant SOLO trial and starts odds on first up for a year - red box again today

https://fasttrack.grv.org.au/RaceVideo/RaceVideo/240698941

I have a rule I don't back dogs that have had less than three starts and if it's a Grade 7 or Maiden I always watch the videos to see if they try, so she didn't get me today ....

nemisis · « 2017-Jul-24, 05:48 PM **Reply #13** »

The basic rules are 1st offence is 28 days suspension, 2nd offence is 3 months and 3rd time is 12 months.

The dog has to pass a steward's trial on every offence and the trial must have at least 3 dogs before it can race again.

Magic Seal looks to have plenty of ability, but a shocking attitude.

She was cleared on 30th June on that track.

bear · « 2017-Jul-25, 06:28 PM **Reply #14** »

Lismore Tonght
1-8 Bokarm Leo
3-1 Tera Torra
4-4 Mitcharlie Mia
6-1 Inner Wisdom
8-1 Grand Prix Drya

Skybeau · « 2017-Sep-22, 06:15 PM **Reply #15** »

Think Chevsta is a super chance tonight in race 5 @ Geelong, currently $10 fixed odds.

Also like Gregorvitch drawn out in the pink in race 8, currently $5 fixed odds.

Wenona · « 2017-Sep-25, 12:28 PM **Reply #16** »

Ballarat today -

Race 6

#5 Onya Sami with a speed rating of $2.60. - Has won 10/36 from Bx 1-4 and 1/26 from Bx 5-8 and in every win she has won the start and led on the fence. Box 5 today but she looks like she's in a race where there's a high probability she can cross. She's a bit one dimensional but at the current price of $3.40 I think the overs are worth the risk.

#7 Tim Riggins is second rated at $4.65. If the #5 can't cross the red his chances are better than that. I'll be also having something on him if I can get the price.

Race 8

Not a great quality race. The #3 Manilla Blue is a query. Hard to line up and seems a bit hit and miss at the start.

I have #5 Leachwood Lass priced at $6.00. The #4 generally lacks early pace and I can see Leachwood Lass having some space to accelerate and possibly lead. Currently available at $7.50 I've had some of that and will save with a fixed price exacta 3-5 later.

Wenona · « 2017-Oct-08, 03:43 PM **Reply #17** »

I'll be trying to get these at Sale tonight

Sale R5 D9 Jack’S Rainbow      $4.60

Sale R6    D1 Our Bravo Rose   $15.00
   D2 Miss Dee Meadows   $3.40
   D5 Zipping Paris      $4.30
   D7 Allen Punter         $10.00

Sale R7 D6 Select Daniel      $6.80
   D9 Pristina Lad         $12.00

Sale R9 D4 Ice Cool Kaedyn   $3.80
   D6 Jessie’S Typhoon      $12.00
   D8 Full Moon         $9.00

Sale R10 D3 Bigtime Raider      $10.00
    D5 Dava Supreme      $10.00
    D6 Zellman         $5.60

Skybeau · « 2017-Oct-12, 08:33 PM **Reply #18** »

Sale was one track my ratings could never get a hold on. Prick of a home turn on that track, seems to take you so wide unless you are nailed to the rails.

Wenona · « 2017-Oct-24, 02:00 PM **Reply #19** »

Interested in these today - If I was given 100 units to bet now I'd go ................

7w GEL06 D1 Blackpool Alexis
2w GEL06 D7 Milly's Choice
5w GEL07 D6 Pop Do It
2w GEL07 D7 Arch Willow
3w GEL08 D5 Fab Dream
4w GEL11 D5 Super Stoked
3w GEL11 D10 Sunningdale
4w GEL12 D9 Miss Legality

4w HOR05 D1 Maximum Bella
5w HOR05 D2 On Billy's Wings
4w HOR06 D1 Tricksters Son
6w HOR06 D7 Zipping Dash
11w HOR11 D2 Tiarna Keeping
3w HOR11 D6 Vectis Secret

2w WGL06 D2 Zed Merrett
5w WGL06 D5 Empire Entourage
5w WGL07 D4 Ringading Sister
3w WGL07 D7 Lulu Lollipop
3w WGL08 D4 Lucky Tetris
6w WGL08 D5 Eyes On You
3w WGL08 D6 Dr Yanma
10w WGL12 D1 Little Jebrynah

Wenona · « 2017-Dec-09, 06:56 PM **Reply #20** »

Ballarat Cup tonight with a great field lining up.

I've got Aston Dee Bee on top but I don't think it's any value.

'puter says only value runner will probably be Judicial Man and it looks like I'll be able to back it and also back it in the without favourite market.

The Consolation analysis has come back at odds with the current market as well - with Hone In and Crash Cobra being the overs.

Skybeau · « 2017-Dec-11, 08:16 PM **Reply #21** »

Quote from: Wenona on 2017-Dec-09, 06:56 PM

Ballarat Cup tonight with a great field lining up.

I've got Aston Dee Bee on top but I don't think it's any value.

'puter says only value runner will probably be Judicial Man and it looks like I'll be able to back it and also back it in the without favourite market.

The Consolation analysis has come back at odds with the current market as well - with Hone In and Crash Cobra being the overs.

Nice effort with Hone In there.

Skybeau · « 2017-Dec-15, 10:13 AM **Reply #22** »

Quote from: Wenona on 2017-Dec-09, 06:56 PM

Ballarat Cup tonight with a great field lining up.

I've got Aston Dee Bee on top but I don't think it's any value.

'puter says only value runner will probably be Judicial Man and it looks like I'll be able to back it and also back it in the without favourite market.

The Consolation analysis has come back at odds with the current market as well - with Hone In and Crash Cobra being the overs.

A tie in with the Hone In form tonight @ Geelong in race 8. #3 Blackpool Chuck was 4th in the Consolation race at Ballarat last week, 25.28, should be good enough to lead from here. Also ran 2nd to Bewildering in the heats, running 25.61 in the slop. Currently $4 on Bet365.

PoisonPen7 · « 2017-Dec-15, 08:38 PM **Reply #23** »

Quote from: Skybeau on 2017-Dec-15, 10:13 AM

A tie in with the Hone In form tonight @ Geelong in race 8. #3 Blackpool Chuck was 4th in the Consolation race at Ballarat last week, 25.28, should be good enough to lead from here. Also ran 2nd to Bewildering in the heats, running 25.61 in the slop. Currently $4 on Bet365.

Never in doubt from the moment they jumped.

Well picked Sky

The NSW TAB running double and the UBET Daily Double were the same races (7-8) and I got both.

NSW RD paid $85.

Qld DD paid $8.40

jfc and the rebate bandits must have got into that one

Skybeau · « 2017-Dec-16, 12:04 PM **Reply #24** »

Quote from: PoisonPen7 on 2017-Dec-15, 08:38 PM

Never in doubt from the moment they jumped.

Well picked Sky

The NSW TAB running double and the UBET Daily Double were the same races (7-8) and I got both.

NSW RD paid $85.

Qld DD paid $8.40

jfc and the rebate bandits must have got into that one

Did seem the logical selection based on the class of it's last few runs. Got $4.80 with the multiplier so was happy.

$85 RD seems a very good divvy based off a $7 winner into that one.