Thread necro, but here goes. How are you going to measure if the Ballarat Grade 5 dog is 3 lengths quicker than the Healesville Grade 5 dog? I my mind the Ballarat G5 dog would be better, but don't have anything concrete to prove that.
Over 474 races for 450m @ Ballarat avg winning time is 25.53s (min 24.83s - max 26.18s), avg $PM per race is over $1800. Avg speed is 63.5 kmh
Over 228 races for 300m @ Healesville avg winning time is 16.82s (min 16.31s - max 17.25s), avg $PM per race is $953. Avg speed is 64.2 kmh
Well I suppose the answer is I'm going to suck it and see.
We all make these types of decisions on an ad hoc basis everytime we do the form. I'm trying to quantify these decisions and incorporate them in a predictive model.
I started by recording the historical times for grade 5 races across all Victorian country tracks. I then looked at how times for different distances at the same track compared across tracks. eg how the speed at races in the 450-500m range compared to races at the 390-410 range across different tracks. I looked at how track records for different tracks and distances related to each other. I considered starts and if they were bend starts or had a long straight run, the percentage of the race run on a bend and the acuteness of the bends at each track. I then looked at hundreds of dogs form to see if any starts were consistently out of kilter with the dogs other starts. I spent a lot of time on it and it took on a life of its own. Having Warrnambool, Ballarat and Shepparton being so similar was a help. I'd actually calculated par times very close to each other for the 390 and 450 starts at each of those before realising the layouts were so similar. Being able to do up to thirty races a day is certainly a big benefit of betting on the dogs.
I don't have enough information for longer races (over 500m) so I am restricting my analysis mainly to races under that distance. Mainly I'm focused on races in the 440-485 range that I have the most data on and are races with long runs to the first turn hopefully increases the chances of the fastest dog. I'm finding that early speed and box draws are having more impact on the shorter races particularly at bend starts and my 'speed' analysis is less reliable. I still do the race but look for a bigger edge when considering a bet and want to see some other factors like early speed and track/distance history being favourable.
I've been at it for about a month now and I'm well in front but I'm still struggling with lots of aspects including how to bet.
I enjoy the whole process of revision and refinement so not having definitive solutions isn't a problem for me. I'll keep plugging away and see where it takes me.