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Victorian Greyhound Racing Questions - Greyhounds - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: Victorian Greyhound Racing Questions  (Read 778 times)

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Offline Wenona

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O.P. « 2017-May-21, 07:22 PM »
I've become enchanted with straight track racing at Healesville for some unknown reason.  :embarrassed:

I'd really appreciate any views on what the strength of runners is across various venues in Victoria would be.

I see the city tracks have metro and no metro races as well  .... so taking the average 5th Grade winner ...... how much stronger would say a Sandown (SAP) 5th Grade winner or a Ballarat 5th Grade winner be to a Healesville 5th Grade winner.

Is anyone aware of any published material about Par times for Victorian racing (I realise this probably wouldn't be shared).




Offline HarmersHaven

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« 2017-May-21, 07:32 PM Reply #1 »
http://www.greyhound-data.com/stadia.htm?land=au&z=7ycdi9

This site lists all Australian tracks, active and non-active.

TRACK RECORDS and FAST TIMES tabs for each distance will give you what you need.

Online arakaan

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« 2017-May-21, 07:34 PM Reply #2 »

Offline Wenona

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« 2017-May-21, 07:46 PM Reply #3 »
Thanks.

I can find the average winning times ...... what I don't know is if the average Ballarat 5th Grade winner is a 3 length better dog than the average Healesville 5th Grade winner. Bothe dogs may run the average time, but they're probably not equal in ability, especially if one is running for $1200 and one is running to $600,

Offline Gintara

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« 2017-May-21, 09:47 PM Reply #4 »
Skybeau should be able to answer most of your questions Wenona.

It's different to NSW where we have class A (Wenty) B & C meetings (Tab tracks) & D (country racing)

Offline Wenona

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« 2017-May-21, 11:50 PM Reply #5 »
Thanks. I'm starting from scratch so I'm trying to short track some learnings.

I've already noticed some issues with the published average winning times for some tracks. Traralgon jumps out straight away. They seem to be going .40 to .50 seconds quicker than the average would indicate in the sprint races .... has the track changed in the last 12 months?


Offline Sunliner

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« 2017-May-22, 08:22 AM Reply #6 »
as a rule of thumb, the shorter the distance, the slower the racing pool, but straight racing presents a problem in comparing the form from tracks with a turn, as agility when changing stride through a bend plays no part.

With Traralgon it is a fairly new complex, and with loam tracks as the foundation settles over time, the track tends to become faster.

Offline Skybeau

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« 2017-Aug-08, 09:56 PM Reply #7 »
Thanks.

I can find the average winning times ...... what I don't know is if the average Ballarat 5th Grade winner is a 3 length better dog than the average Healesville 5th Grade winner. Bothe dogs may run the average time, but they're probably not equal in ability, especially if one is running for $1200 and one is running to $600,

Thread necro, but here goes.  How are you going to measure if the Ballarat Grade 5 dog is 3 lengths quicker than the Healesville Grade 5 dog?  I my mind the Ballarat G5 dog would be better, but don't have anything concrete to prove that.

Over 474 races for 450m @ Ballarat avg winning time is 25.53s (min 24.83s -  max 26.18s), avg $PM per race is over $1800. Avg speed is 63.5 kmh

Over 228 races for 300m @ Healesville avg winning time is 16.82s (min 16.31s - max 17.25s), avg $PM per race is $953. Avg speed is 64.2 kmh
« Last Edit: 2017-Aug-08, 10:00 PM by Skybeau »

Offline Theorist

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« 2017-Aug-09, 12:07 PM Reply #8 »
Probably stating the obvious, but here goes.  I find it impossible to line up Healsville (or Capalaba) with anywhere else because they are both straight tracks and generally straight racing is a specialist gig for a dog.  Many can win at either but it doesn't mean they handle straights better than bend tracks.

Probably similar to straight racing at Flemington.  I prefer to keep my powder dry until form is exposed (except when I have inside info on how a dog has trialled on the straight).

Offline Gintara

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« 2017-Aug-09, 09:40 PM Reply #9 »
Appin dogs used to always run well at Bulli.

Offline Wenona

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« 2017-Aug-09, 10:57 PM Reply #10 »
Thread necro, but here goes.  How are you going to measure if the Ballarat Grade 5 dog is 3 lengths quicker than the Healesville Grade 5 dog?  I my mind the Ballarat G5 dog would be better, but don't have anything concrete to prove that.

Over 474 races for 450m @ Ballarat avg winning time is 25.53s (min 24.83s -  max 26.18s), avg $PM per race is over $1800. Avg speed is 63.5 kmh

Over 228 races for 300m @ Healesville avg winning time is 16.82s (min 16.31s - max 17.25s), avg $PM per race is $953. Avg speed is 64.2 kmh

Well I suppose the answer is I'm going to suck it and see.

We all make these  types of decisions on an ad hoc basis everytime we do the form. I'm trying to quantify these decisions and incorporate them in a predictive model.

I started by recording the historical times for grade 5 races across all Victorian country tracks. I then looked at how times for different distances at the same track compared across tracks. eg how the speed at races in the 450-500m range compared to races at the 390-410 range across different tracks. I looked at how track records for different tracks and distances related to each other. I considered starts and if they were bend starts or had a long straight run, the percentage of the race run on a bend and the acuteness of the bends at each track. I then looked at hundreds of dogs form to see if any starts were consistently out of kilter with the dogs other starts. I spent a lot of time on it and it took on a life of its own. Having Warrnambool, Ballarat and Shepparton being so similar was a help. I'd actually calculated par times very close to each other for the 390 and 450 starts at each of those before realising the layouts were so similar. Being able to do up to thirty races a day is certainly a big benefit of betting on the dogs.

I don't have enough information for longer races (over 500m) so I am restricting my analysis mainly to races under that distance. Mainly I'm focused on races in the 440-485 range that I have the most data on and are races with long runs to the first turn hopefully increases the chances of the fastest dog. I'm finding that early speed and box draws are having more impact on the shorter races particularly at bend starts and my 'speed' analysis is less reliable. I still do the race but look for a bigger edge when considering a bet and want to see some other factors like early speed and track/distance history being favourable.

I've been at it for about a month now and I'm well in front but I'm still struggling with lots of aspects including how to bet.

I enjoy the whole process of revision and refinement so not having definitive solutions isn't a problem for me. I'll keep plugging away and see where it takes me.








Offline Skybeau

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« 2017-Aug-10, 07:59 AM Reply #11 »
I've got about 3.5 years of data in my databases. Alternatively I can flick my excel file through the scrapes the data from the grv site.


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