Best Harness Analysts - Harness - Racehorse TALK harm-plan harm-plan

Racehorse TALK



Best Harness Analysts - Harness - Racehorse TALK

Author Topic: Best Harness Analysts  (Read 679 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline LeRoi

  • Class2
  • User 2722
  • Posts: 20
O.P. « 2018-Jun-02, 09:21 AM »
Hi all,

Thought could start a new thread on who people believe are the best harness tipsters or analysts.

Interestingly, being a novice fan, have struggled to find any analysts that provide rat prices/markets on races. Could be a business opportunity for a smart person out there!

Offline Thebigdog

  • Open
  • User 550
  • Posts: 112
« 2018-Jun-12, 01:25 PM Reply #1 »
I’ll give you my tips for today’s Albion meeting. See how I go.
1st is already over but would have been in the fav all day.
2nd, 4 racing super.
3rd, 3  gets a draw, should be winning.
4th, 1 should handle these.
5th,8 plenty speed here so should finish well.
6th, 10 in a tough race.
7th, 9 is racing super, should appreciate the early speed here.
8th, 1 is a horse on the way up.
9th, 1 get the perfect trail here on back of 2 and wins.
Good luck.

Of the 8 races I got,
5 winners
1 second and 1 third, 1 unplaced.
Not a bad day.
« Last Edit: 2018-Jun-12, 05:47 PM by Thebigdog »

Offline Peter Mair

  • Group 2
  • User 326
  • Posts: 4076
« 2018-Jun-12, 07:40 PM Reply #2 »


...................... a good question li roi........... why would you ask it?

Offline LeRoi

  • Class2
  • User 2722
  • Posts: 20
« 2018-Jun-12, 07:52 PM Reply #3 »

...................... a good question li roi........... why would you ask it?

Just seems to be a lack of people with any markets services, and I would certainly be interested to purchasing if they're any good.

Offline Arsenal

  • VIP Club
  • Group 1
  • User 194
  • Posts: 14629
« 2018-Jun-13, 09:29 AM Reply #4 »
Very commendable effort BD if you keep it up I might be tempted to start betting on them again ...you might remember..... if you were around  in the good old days.... the tip the card competitions at AP to win a car...... you put your selections on the entry form in the racebook ...well I  ran second in one of the early races but never missed a winner after that ...but no prize the consolation went to the tipster who had every winner until the last race.

Giddy Up :beer:

Offline Thebigdog

  • Open
  • User 550
  • Posts: 112
« 2018-Jun-13, 11:31 AM Reply #5 »
Thanks Arsenal, I will put more up when I get time.

Yes I remember those days well, was only young but a owner who had horses with my father won it one night, got a Ford Capri from memory.  It was very hard to achieve so your effort was massive.

Dog.

Offline Thebigdog

  • Open
  • User 550
  • Posts: 112
« 2018-Jul-10, 02:26 PM Reply #6 »
Some tips for Albion today.
1, 4 has trialled well for this, some support for the 2, 3 has ability but can do things wrong.
2, 9 should break through today, 8 is in good form but has poor draw, 4 and 5 main dangers.
3, 6 is here for better races than this, should be winning. 7 and 3 the dangers.
4, 8 is flying, will need some luck from the draw but not a strong race. 3 and 6 the other fancies.
More later.
Dog.

Offline Thebigdog

  • Open
  • User 550
  • Posts: 112
« 2018-Jul-10, 03:54 PM Reply #7 »
5, 2 will be winning this.
6, 1 should hold back of leader and run them down in straight. 2-4-8 dangers.
7, 2 is down on form but gets a better draw and can win this. 9 and 12 main dangers.
And if you bet in the last you dont like money.
Dog.

Offline LeRoi

  • Class2
  • User 2722
  • Posts: 20
« 2018-Jul-11, 01:45 PM Reply #8 »
Anyone had a close look to the harness ratings by 'The Analysts' on Betfair? Any good?

https://www.betfair.com.au/hub/tools/models/harness-racing-ratings/

Online PoisonPen7

  • Group 1
  • User 55
  • Posts: 19471
« 2018-Jul-11, 08:44 PM Reply #9 »
Step-by-step for doing Don Scott type calculations but what looks like the "100 top score" type ratings.

https://www.betfair.com.au/hub/better-betting/betsmart-education/ratings-and-prices/betting-with-ratings/


Online PoisonPen7

  • Group 1
  • User 55
  • Posts: 19471
« 2018-Jul-11, 09:14 PM Reply #10 »
Using those methods, along with a ratings system that scores the horses, you can create a spreadsheet to come up with value prices.

This is my own go at the Grafton Cup tomorrow using the numbers on the Betfair page that has the tutorial about ratings - the last three columns give the value price (15% added for takeout) for 3 ratings systems.



Ratings Lengths To Winner Lengths To Score Chance Value Price
No Horse PP7 Sky Tatts PP7 Sky Tatts PP7 Sky Tatts PP7 Sky Tatts PP7 Sky Tatts
1 MONTAUK 92 91 91 4 4.5 4.5 0.06 0.045 0.045 1.41% 5.72% 1.65% $81.63 $20.10 $69.77
2 JUMBO PRINCE 98 95 96 1 2.5 2 0.51 0.18 0.24 11.97% 22.89% 8.79% $9.60 $5.02 $13.08
3 ANTON EN AVANT 100 93 100 0 3.5 0 1 0.085 1 23.48% 10.81% 36.63% $4.90 $10.64 $3.14
4 FIRST CRUSH 100 97 100 0 1.5 0 1 0.37 1 23.48% 47.04% 36.63% $4.90 $2.44 $3.14
5 SAYED (USA)














6 ALL IN VOGUE (NZ) 94 68 93 3 16 3.5 0.12 0.007 0.085 2.82% 0.89% 3.11% $40.82 $129.21 $36.94
7 TUMULTUOUS 95 78 93 2.5 11 3.5 0.18 0.007 0.085 4.23% 0.89% 3.11% $27.21 $129.21 $36.94
8 CHILLIN WITH DYLAN 95 83 87 2.5 8.5 6.5 0.18 0.007 0.007 4.23% 0.89% 0.26% $27.21 $129.21 $448.50
9 LOVING HOME (GB) 93 70 86 3.5 15 7 0.085 0.007 0.007 2.00% 0.89% 0.26% $57.62 $129.21 $448.50
10 MISS DUBOIS (NZ) 96 89 94 2 5.5 3 0.24 0.0225 0.12 5.64% 2.86% 4.40% $20.41 $40.20 $26.16
11 RENEGED 99 80 93 0.5 10 3.5 0.75 0.007 0.085 17.61% 0.89% 3.11% $6.53 $129.21 $36.94
12 COLLABORATION (GB) 93 63 86 3.5 18.5 7 0.085 0.007 0.007 2.00% 0.89% 0.26% $57.62 $129.21 $448.50
13 FUERZA 87 65 85 6.5 17.5 7.5 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.16% 0.89% 0.26% $699.69 $129.21 $448.50
14 HIGH DEGREE














15 JACK STRIKES BACK 87 67 83 6.5 16.5 8.5 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.16% 0.89% 0.26% $699.69 $129.21 $448.50
16 CUT THE MUSTARD 87 86 82 6.5 7 9 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.16% 0.89% 0.26% $699.69 $129.21 $448.50
17e HUSONIQUE 85 76 83 7.5 12 8.5 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.16% 0.89% 0.26% $699.69 $129.21 $448.50
18e LATINO LOVER 83 60 84 8.5 20 8 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.16% 0.89% 0.26% $699.69 $129.21 $448.50
19e WINKLER (NZ) 87 74 82 6.5 13 9 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.16% 0.89% 0.26% $699.69 $129.21 $448.50
20e HIS KYLLACHY (IRE) 82 51 78 9 24.5 11 0.007 0 0.007 0.16% 0.00% 0.26% $699.69
$448.50

TOTALS





4.259 0.7865 2.73 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%



Offline LeRoi

  • Class2
  • User 2722
  • Posts: 20
« 2018-Jul-12, 03:54 AM Reply #11 »
Using those methods, along with a ratings system that scores the horses, you can create a spreadsheet to come up with value prices.

This is my own go at the Grafton Cup tomorrow using the numbers on the Betfair page that has the tutorial about ratings - the last three columns give the value price (15% added for takeout) for 3 ratings systems.


RatingsLengths To WinnerLengths To ScoreChanceValue Price
NoHorsePP7SkyTattsPP7SkyTattsPP7SkyTattsPP7SkyTattsPP7SkyTatts
1MONTAUK 92919144.54.50.060.0450.0451.41%5.72%1.65%$81.63$20.10$69.77
2JUMBO PRINCE 98959612.520.510.180.2411.97%22.89%8.79%$9.60$5.02$13.08
3ANTON EN AVANT 1009310003.5010.085123.48%10.81%36.63%$4.90$10.64$3.14
4FIRST CRUSH 1009710001.5010.37123.48%47.04%36.63%$4.90$2.44$3.14
5SAYED (USA)














6ALL IN VOGUE (NZ) 9468933163.50.120.0070.0852.82%0.89%3.11%$40.82$129.21$36.94
7TUMULTUOUS 9578932.5113.50.180.0070.0854.23%0.89%3.11%$27.21$129.21$36.94
8CHILLIN WITH DYLAN 9583872.58.56.50.180.0070.0074.23%0.89%0.26%$27.21$129.21$448.50
9LOVING HOME (GB) 9370863.51570.0850.0070.0072.00%0.89%0.26%$57.62$129.21$448.50
10MISS DUBOIS (NZ) 96899425.530.240.02250.125.64%2.86%4.40%$20.41$40.20$26.16
11RENEGED 9980930.5103.50.750.0070.08517.61%0.89%3.11%$6.53$129.21$36.94
12COLLABORATION (GB) 9363863.518.570.0850.0070.0072.00%0.89%0.26%$57.62$129.21$448.50
13FUERZA 8765856.517.57.50.0070.0070.0070.16%0.89%0.26%$699.69$129.21$448.50
14HIGH DEGREE














15JACK STRIKES BACK 8767836.516.58.50.0070.0070.0070.16%0.89%0.26%$699.69$129.21$448.50
16CUT THE MUSTARD 8786826.5790.0070.0070.0070.16%0.89%0.26%$699.69$129.21$448.50
17eHUSONIQUE 8576837.5128.50.0070.0070.0070.16%0.89%0.26%$699.69$129.21$448.50
18eLATINO LOVER 8360848.52080.0070.0070.0070.16%0.89%0.26%$699.69$129.21$448.50
19eWINKLER (NZ) 8774826.51390.0070.0070.0070.16%0.89%0.26%$699.69$129.21$448.50
20eHIS KYLLACHY (IRE) 825178924.5110.00700.0070.16%0.00%0.26%$699.69
$448.50

TOTALS





4.2590.78652.73100.00%100.00%100.00%



Nice work. Good luck!


Sent from my iPhone using Racehorse Talk
« Last Edit: 2018-Jul-12, 11:14 AM by PoisonPen7 »


BACK TO ALL TOPICS
Sitemap