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Racehorse TALK » Racing Talk » Betting, Tips & Ratings » Topic: Computer Calculations and Knowledge Rules for Race
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Author Topic: Computer Calculations and Knowledge Rules for Race  (Read 7876 times)
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TheAnalyser
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Original Post 2010-Apr-25, 05:19 PM

As Requested here is a topic to talk about calcuations/rules/ratings formulas.

As an added bonus I will release my code in the next few days(when I get time to write the install instructions) so that others who can not program will be able to collect their own data and devise their own rules/systems/formula.

If anyone wishes to add comments on ideas they use in their computer programs this would be greatly appreciated.
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Wenona
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2011-Oct-01, 08:53 AM

B & C dead heat for 2nd.

Therefore that perm is void.



Well 2 is a winning score in that example, but I'll let it go.
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Wenona
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2011-Oct-01, 08:58 AM

So applying all this to actual heads up markets, if the market on a heads up contest is based soley on the win odds of each runner in the race, you should be looking at backing the outsider in the heads up market particualrly where there is some inconsistency or query about the shorter priced runner built into the current race win market.

Do you agree with that?
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jfc
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2011-Oct-01, 09:00 AM

Well 2 is a winning score in that example, but I'll let it go.



If a contingency is void then it cannot win.

---

If you allow dead heats then the example will get extremely complicated.

For example

1 1 1

would be 1/3rd of a win for all of them.
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jfc
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2011-Oct-01, 09:02 AM

So applying all this to actual heads up markets, if the market on a heads up contest is based soley on the win odds of each runner in the race, you should be looking at backing the outsider in the heads up market particualrly where there is some inconsistency or query about the shorter priced runner built into the current race win market.

Do you agree with that?


Yes

Back the outsider

or

Lay the Favourite
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Wenona
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2011-Oct-01, 09:04 AM

You stated your methodology and I accept that.

I calculated my percentages including deadheats.


I'd rather discuss the topic further rather than argue about that.
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Wenona
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2011-Oct-01, 09:16 AM

Yes

Back the outsider

or

Lay the Favourite




Of course all this assumes the win market is efficent.
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Gamblor
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2011-Dec-08, 06:25 AM

No racing market is ever 100% efficient.

The die example is a very good one, and it seems to highlight that the prob with harville is not flesh and blood, rather that if a favorite has not won, it has not peaked, and it's price is built on the assumption of the chance of a peak. That peak needs to be removed from its odds assumption when the chance of 2nd and 3rd are calculated. Similarly, the reverse applies for roughies.

Great example jfc.
« Last Edit: 2011-Dec-08, 06:27 AM by Gamblor » Logged
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