Racehorse TALK

And the gaps will monotonically decrease with favourite rank.

In turn this means an outright favourite will always underperform Harville for running 2nd.

And the situation will improve as favouritism decreases. At some point 2nd performance will overtake Harville.

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So jfc, have you anlaysed where this point is crossed in a large number of races?

If rank is more important than probability you would expect to find a consistency at what rank this point is crossed in races with similar field size regardless of the spread of market prices, wouldn't you?

If probability is more important you would expect to see the rank in which it crosses vary more depending on the differing spread of probabilitites within races with similar numbers of runners.

They must have the best last start margin in the race.

Ah yes, same as a one that's been beaten 3L at a city metro meeting dropping back to the provincials against last start provincial winners.

RF210910 rw62509f * RACE NAME ID* [ GEORGE MAIN STAKES 1600 metres.]
RF210910 RW62509F * SPD ORD TABNO [  3  8  7  4  6  1  2  5  ] TOP5 HIHIT *
RF210910 RW62509F * WMSPD ORD TNO [  3  8  4  7  1  6  2  5  ] TOP5 HIHIT GW*
RF210910 RW62509F * L600 FSPD T10 [  4  3  8  7  5  2  1  6  ] TOP6 HI HIT*
RF210910 RW62509F * SIMUL PACE ALL[  8  7  3  4  5  1  6  2  * DBLCHK

Despite the Heavy(10) or (9) Track at Caulfield for the 2010 Caulfield Cup, the Big Boys knew what they were doing. Sure there were about seven starters that had a great chance of winning, but in the end it came down to one simple Ratio.

The seven possible winners were ( Smallest Ratio Best ) seen by the professionals ( or the market as a whole ), to be :

6.  Harris Tweed  0.59  Second. but Was the winner just before the post and just after the post.
12.  Alcopop       0.60
15.  Descarado     0.64  Winner.
20.  Red Ruler     0.64
10.  Triple Honour 0.74
17.  Faint Perfume 0.75
1.  Shocking . .  0.76  Fourth.
9.  Monaco Consul 1.10  Third.
The two Improving 4 year olds that had very good last race runs, although well disguised, were 15 and 9.

By the way the calculations showed that 4 Tokai Trick and 18 Dariana had  little chance of even placing, at least as far as the market was concerned, and the market is usually close to the mark.

Although these were the actual ratios on the closed pool, the figures are not that different for some time before the pool is closed, giving enough time for final adjustments to the exotics. However once  the Win Pool is above $10000 the calculation can be quite revealing and therefore useful in modifying selections for the tipping comps, that need a decision before 12.00 on raceday.  

RF211010 MV82310F * HIGHEST EARNER[  1  ZIPPING WITH $ 3630195 CANT DROP F4
RF211010 MV82310F * SPD ORD TABNO [  3  4  7  8  10  9  5  1  6  2  ] TOP5 HIHIT *
RF211010 MV82310F * WMSPD ORD TNO [  4  3  8  7  10  9  5  1  6  2  ] TOP5 HIHIT GW*
RF211010 MV82310F * L600 FSPD T10 [  5  9  2  3  10  8  7  6  1  4  ] TOP6 HI HIT*
RF211010 MV82310F * SIMUL PACE ALL[  4  7  10  8  3  5  9  1  6  2  * DBLCHK