Racehorse TALK

If they're all over the odds by 30% then you've got to start asking yourself why they are. Ok I suppose if there's a short priced favourite and you're confident it can't win.
In this case I'd just back Bill's horse and leave the others alone because he's me mate and he give me crayfish.

I would say most horses are over or unders. Few are fair value. The public is more wrong than right.

In this example the 1 is the fav at $5 so it's considered an open race.

If x = amount invested on Awesome Horse and d1 = win divi for Awesome Horse
and
If y = amount invested on Joe's Horse and d2 = win divi for Joe's Horse
and
If z = amount invested on Bill's Horse and d3 = win divi for Bill's Horse
then
as long as all of the following are satisfied, it doesn't matter what amount you have on
x.d1 - (x + y + z ) > 0
y.d2 - (x + y + z ) > 0
z.d3 - (x + y + z ) > 0

GM,

I'm have a lot of success in 2 staking methods:-

1. Back for the drum--and if that can't grap ya--cause if it wins and pisses you off---go 1 unit win & 3 units place.
2. All up on at least two selections
3. Parlay if you have 3 or more selections.

No.2 especially for sports bets.

Just my humble thoughts.

Have to disagree with that.
Based on tried and true methods most horses start at their true price.
If you have an edge noone else does you can get overs-otherwise......

At those odds i'd:

I'd back horse 1 e/w.
Horse 3 to place.
Box them in a tri.


...and horse 2 would win with 1 & 3 4th and 5th......

Seems a logical "dutch book' bet.
You say it is an open race so logic says it is probably not a race to play only 3 in a multi.

What probability do you think each horse has of winning?

 

Dutching is the best way to go and it is my favourite (and profitable) method, however there are 3 basic ways to dutch and you need to determine your option. From your sample the 3 runners are 42.62% or close to 6/4

a) Standout, ie back one selection to make the money and back the others as savers. For the purpose of the exercise I will use the $5 selection as the standout.

say your target for the race is $100
 1)  $5 O/L $27  Ret  $135
 2)  $7  O/L  $5  Ret  $35
 3)  $12 O/L  $3  Ret  $36
Total O/L = $35

b) Save on one, say that the $5 is not your top 2 selections but you wish to break even if it wins or profit $100 if either the $7 or $12 win.
 1)  $5  O/L $8  Ret $40
 2)  $7  O/L  $20  Ret  $140
 3)  $12  O/L $12  Ret  $144
Total O/L = $40

c) Full target, make $100 if any win
 1) $5  O/L $35  Ret $175
 2) $7  O/L  $ 25  Ret $175
 3) $12 O/L  $15  Ret  $180
Total O/L = $75

There is one further option that may be available to you, lets say that the favourite in this race was at $2 and the market on the race is ~118%. The $2 favourite is equivalent to 50% therefore the rest of the field will be (118 - 50) =68%.  Your three selections hold a total of 42.62% therefore the remaining horses minus the favourite must be at ~ 25% equivalent to 3/1 or $4.
Since you consider that the favourite is false and won't win you can back your top three selections to make ~ $100 profit irrespective of which one wins and back the rest of the field (minus the favourite) to break square on the race.

Your outlays will be such.
 1) $5  O/L $42 Ret $210
 2) $7  O/L  $30  Ret $210
 3) $12  O/L  $18 Ret $216
 4) rest of field dutched O/L ~ $20  Ret ~ $120

Total O/L ~ $120

Admittedly your profit if one of your main selections wins will be $90 or $96  or you will break square if any other horse bar the favourite wins. This is because I have done the calculations to $ amounts. However if you were betting with Betfair or some of the corporate bookies then you can bet to the nearest cent and the outcome will be more accurate.

You can then throw a few bucks into the exotics.

Hope this helps GM

"Based on tried and true methods most horses start at their true price."

If that was true favs would be winning almost every race.

70% of non favs are winning week after week which means the public is mispricing horses a lot.

You can't all up in the 1 race or parlay.

"What has happened now is that the efficient market hypothesis has been discredited, the evidence is just too overwhelming "

"Soros applied the idea to the markets, rejecting the notion that prices are the efficient outcome of “perfect” knowledge, instead insisting that they are shaped by the biases and ignorance of market players, and that those biases can be self-fulfilling. "

George Soros