Racehorse TALK

Metallurgical didn't run last week so no regrets leaving it out.

None from 5 last week - Posh Chic got my hopes up but was run down by a certain Qld raider. Congratulations to all involved despite Posh Chic also being my biggest bet of the day (eachway) outside this system.

So after last week, still have the nose in front.

Result as at 26th December 2010

Selections : 25
Winners : 2
Flat Stake Return (Exc Comm) : 29.40

Total Outlay : $515.00
Total Return : $562.43
Profit/Loss : +$47.43

Bank ($1,000) : $1,047.43
R.O.I. +9.2%


This week I'm making what I think is a common sense change to the betting. For the first time a race (GCR8) has thrown up five qualifiers. It just obvious to me that the amount invested on a single race should be capped. So from now on total investment on a single race will be restricted to 2.5x the daily bet. If there are three or more picks the bet will be spread across all qualifiers evenly.

In terms of recording runners and winners etc, they will continue to be recorded normally.

So on to today.

Was in two minds whether to include the Gold Coast because I don't like betting there, but have relented and included the meeting.

Todays Qualifiers:

All bets at LUX BOB :

SR5 H2 Youthful Jack : $20

SR8 H8 Beyond Expectations : $20

MR3 H7 Briefed : $20

GCR4 H9 Princess Qualo  20
GCR4 H2 Gag Order : $20

GCR7 H15 Pride Of Power : $20
GCR7 H4 Facile Tigre : $20

GCR8 H15 Cavaliered : $10
GCR8 H3 Startsmeup : $10
GCR8 H7 Audacious Spirit : $10
GCR8 H8 Gentle Giant : $10
GCR8 H1 Spirit Of Boom : $10

Total Invested : $190

Facile Tigre was the only winner on the 1st - at $6.50 BOB.

Those results were enough to put the test into a small loss.

Selections : 37
Winners : 3
Flat Stake Return (Exc Comm) : 35.9

Total Outlay : $705.00
Total Return : $692.43
Profit/Loss : -$12.57

Bank ($1,000) : $987.43


Didn't look at the fields for the last couple of weeks through some family business and flood clean ups taking priority.

Back into it today.

Still hopeful this all might end up turning a profit despite the results to date. I have always thought that if this method was to work it would be on the occasional big priced winner off a small strike rate. I'm going to drop anything I can't see $6.00 or better for in the morning as I think they're probably 'well found' and don't carry much value.

There's only five today, and three of those are huge prices. $20 each.

SR2 H7 Thegreatandthegood BFSP
SR7 H4 Kimberley Kid LuxBOB

BR1 H9 Cardio BFSP
BR3 H15 Just Destiny BFSP
BR8 H11 Handsupfordetroit LuxBOB

Nothing in Melbourne today.

Moving firmly into loss territory .....

Result as at 22nd January 2010

Selections : 42
Winners : 3
Flat Stake Return (Exc Comm) : 35.9

Total Outlay : $805.00
Total Return : $692.43
Profit/Loss : -$112.57

Bank ($1,000) : $887.43
R.O.I. -14.0%

********************************

Got a quiet day today so had a look.

MR7 H8 Perfect Hostess

BR6 H16 Bolocco Miss

BR7 H7 Huff And Puff
BR7 H4 D'Jet

BR8 H12 Justluk

None in Sydney - $20 win BF SP all runners.

Result as at 29th January 2010

Selections : 47
Winners : 3
Flat Stake Return (Exc Comm) : 35.9

Total Outlay : $905.00
Total Return : $692.43
Profit/Loss : -$212.57

Bank ($1,000) : $787.43
R.O.I. -30.7%

Things are looking grim.

No good being stubborn about it. Looking back it's obvious that  the best results are being found in the lighter raced horses. This makes sense to me so I'm adding a rule to eliminate some of the more raced or older types.

I'll continue from here with the $787.43 bank.

I always realised that this was going to be a high variance exercise so I haven't lost all hope yet as it's still one good winner from profit. Will be a few less selections from here in.

Todays qualifiers : $20 BFSP

SR5 H6 Fashion
SR5 H5 Forward Love

I'll also post the qualifiers that are under $6 prepost. The price cut off is difficult when posting before the races - there was one on Wednesday that was eliminated because it was $4 in the morning markets but won paying $8.80 BFSP.

I'll back these if I can get $6 or $6.30 on Betfair (higher because of commission).

MR8 H5 Counterpane

(The ones eliminated under the rule change are : BR3 Our Mr Cashman - BR4 Monashee Dancer - MR6 True Tales & Minnesota Shark)

Result after 29th January 2010

Selections : 49
Winners : 3
Flat Stake Return (Exc Comm) : 35.9

Total Outlay : $945.00
Total Return : $692.43
Profit/Loss : -$252.57

Bank ($1,000) : $747.43
R.O.I. -26.7%


Today : $20 BFSP

SR2 H11 Rock My Heart
SR2 H1 Startsmeup
SR2 H2 Fast Clip
(Invest $16.67 per horse - max 2.5X bet per race rule)

BR2 H7 Catallion

BR8 H7 Fusette

Taken $6.60 fixed Fast Clip.

Took $90 Rock My Heart

Selections : 54
Winners : 3
Flat Stake Return (Exc Comm) : 35.9

Total Outlay : $1035.00
Total Return : $692.43
Profit/Loss : -$342.57

Bank ($1,000) : $657.43
R.O.I. -33%


Today : $20 BFSP

MR3 H3 Run For Levi
SR7 H5 Bright Expectations
SR7 H7 Top Drop
BR4 H12 Thunder Lane
BR4 H5 Gold Rating
BR5 H8 D'Jet
BR8 H12 Handsupfordetroit


What I think this thread needs is a theme song ........

But on reflection it should probably be .....

Today -

BR2 H1 Backstabber
BR2 H8 Falvelina

BR3 H6 Fusette

SR8 H3 Bandar
SR8 H10 Letchworth

MR3 H15 Kwassa Kwassa

MR5 H5 Run For Levi
MR5 H2 Mr Chad
MR5 H3 Hollowlea
MR5 H11 Bullbars


Still to do a couple of the later races

Put half the Letchworth bet on for the place at $61 fixed. ie 600x10

The win SP is always well under the current bet so I took $490 the win.