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Author Topic: Wenona's Form Factor - $1,000 Challenge  (Read 5546 times)
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Wenona
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Original Post 2010-Aug-07, 10:09 AM

Changed some rules again and got to a set that I'm happy to do a money test.

I've decided to start a $1,000 betting bank from today. 11TH December 2010

I'll post the selections, the bet and where it's on in the morning and keep a running total.

If I can't get this mechanical system to turn a profit, I'll give up after forty years of trying.  (I started young  ) lol

I'll run it until the Stradbroke get together and I'll donate 10% of what ever is left to a small local charity where a small amount might mean something.

*************************

My target is probably something like 15% POT with an average divy of around $8.00. That makes the optimal bet around 2% so I'll start with $20 each pick and see how we travel.

*************************

Result after 5th Feb 2010

Selections : 54
Winners : 3
Flat Stake Return (Exc Comm) : 35.9

Total Outlay : $1035.00
Total Return : $692.43
Profit/Loss : -$342.57

Bank ($1,000) : $657.43
R.O.I. -33%
« Last Edit: 2011-Feb-12, 11:26 AM by Wenona » Logged
 
Wenona
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2010-Aug-07, 10:11 AM

Week 1:

BR3 H4     Fille De Neige
BR3 H10   Trickett

BR4 H11   The Crusader embarrassed

SR2 H5     Triple Crown

SR7 H9     Miss Cutie

SR8 H7     Indirect

MR3 H13   Braided General
« Last Edit: 2010-Oct-09, 11:26 AM by Wenona » Logged
shaun
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2010-Aug-07, 10:21 AM

what are you using as your selection criteria?
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Wenona
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2010-Aug-07, 10:54 AM

Not telling at the moment.

It is mechanical in that if I told you how I worked them out and gave you the necessary resources it would take each of us about thirty minutes to do the three main Saturday meetings and we would get the same selections.

If you can guess the general principle I'll give you a $24 box trifecta on something, but I don't like your chances.
« Last Edit: 2010-Aug-07, 10:59 AM by Wenona » Logged
Wenona
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2010-Aug-21, 10:16 AM

Week 2

Was away last week.

Close but no cigar week 1 - a second around $20.

Week 2

BR 6 H5  Siera Ligera

BR8 H10 Rock Home Late

SR5 H9 Lohan
SR5 H10 Elimari

SR7 H6 Intertidal
SR7 H7 Blackball

MR3 H13 Tan Tat Brav

MR4 H4 Dutchy's Lass

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Wenona
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2010-Aug-21, 02:37 PM

Well finally cracked a winner at my ninth pick, with Dutchy's Lass arriving. 

I took $16.50 and it ended $13 Betfair SP for the record keeping.

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Wenona
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2010-Aug-21, 03:49 PM

Geez, I thought Sirena Ligera was going to hang on there.  bash
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Wenona
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2010-Aug-21, 04:27 PM

  biggrin  Happy again.

Blackball Betfair SP $15.63
« Last Edit: 2010-Aug-21, 04:36 PM by Wenona » Logged
Wenona
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2010-Aug-21, 05:44 PM

2 winners from 8 today for  $28.53 return.

I have a rule that selections have to be 2-5yo, and of course Kenny's World is the single qualifier in the last in Sydney but just turned 6yo.

Not too upset as I did have 5 bucks on him, but I'll just monitor the older horses results for now and not change the rule at the moment.



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Wenona
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2010-Aug-28, 09:52 AM

Week 3


B1 H7 Catalan Miss

B3 H8 Healy Creek

S2 H7 Indirect

S4 H3 Trusting

S4 H7 Montana Flyer

S7 H5 Olanana

M3 H4 Tango's Choice

M4 H1 General Truce



The two in Melbourne have firmed a bit, I'd be looking for $11 on Betfair before betting.


I have a few parameters that I put around the horses that meet the criteria to try and get the best of the bunch.

Horses that meet the criteria but just fall one step outside the parameters like Kenny's World last week are :

M1 H8 Placement
M2 H15 Epic Journey
S1 H8 Grager
S6 H12 Chance Bye
S6 H15 Gybe
B6 H7 Save A Buck
B8 H9 Jad

I'll have a couple of bucks on each of those but they don't count in the record keeping.

(Couple of changes made after checking)
« Last Edit: 2010-Aug-28, 12:18 PM by Wenona » Logged
Wenona
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2010-Sep-04, 10:06 AM

Six selections after scratchings last week - no winners.

I'm changing things this week.

I want to start monitoring all the horses that have the basic factor I'm looking at.

Below is a list of the 38 runners across Bris-Syd-Melb that fit the profile. I'm interested of course in if these runners can turn a profit, but also interested in if the ones at longer prices are more profitable. The theory being that the profile is under valued by the betting public and this becomes more significant as the horses prices gets longer.

I've highlighted the runners that were $7.50 or longer with IAS this morning and these 16 runners will have the $5 bet that counts towards the record keeping in the opening post.






38
16





 EARLY OVER
MEET RACE No HORSE TEST  PRICE  $  7.49
EFM 1 6 SIRENA LIGER 1  $ 5.00
EFM 5 2 CAT EYES 1  $ 4.80
EFM 6 1 CHILLED 1  $ 4.20
EFM 7 2 CAPTAIN SONA 1  $ 2.30
EFM 7 4 SAM'S EXPRES 1  $ 21.00 1
EFM 8 3 I'VE GOT TALE 1  $ 17.00 1
EFM 8 6 ROCK HOME L 1  $ 6.00







RWK 1 4 BUCCANEERS 1  $ 3.70
RWK 2 2 CLOUDY MORN 1  $ 19.00 1
RWK 2 5 RUBIROSE 1  $ 17.00 1
RWK 2 8 ROYAL COMM 1  $ 10.00 1
RWK 3 5 NEW DAY RISI 1  $ 3.80
RWK 4 2 MORE STRAW 1  $ 3.30
RWK 4 3 DIVORCES 1  $ 12.00 1
RWK 4 4 AMBERS WALT 1  $ 7.00
RWK 4 5 ELIMBARI 1  $ 15.00 1
RWK 5 2 METAL BENDE 1  $ 2.50
RWK 6 5 CENTENNIAL P 1  $ 4.80
RWK 7 6 TESTARHYTHM 1  $ 4.00
RWK 7 9 INTERTIDAL 1  $ 21.00 1
RWK 8 4 GEARED UP 1  $ 5.00
RWK 8 8 TROMSO 1  $ 1.80







FLEM 1 1 SHAAHEQ 1  $ 7.50 1
FLEM 1 6 SHEILA'S STAR 1  $ 15.00 1
FLEM 1 7 SHINY AND NE 1  $ 7.00
FLEM 2 3 BULLBARS 1  $ 7.50 1
FLEM 2 4 THE RUFFIAN 1  $ 6.50
FLEM 3 3 FAIRYGEM 1  $ 6.00
FLEM 3 7 MACEDONIAN 1  $ 9.00 1
FLEM 4 16 NICASTRO 1  $ 5.00
FLEM 5 5 LADY LYNETTE 1  $ 4.40
FLEM 5 12 BELIEVE 'N AC 1  $ 10.00 1
FLEM 6 1 STAR WITNES 1  $ 3.80
FLEM 6 2 MILITARY ROS 1  $ 6.50
FLEM 6 4 GENERAL TRU 1  $ 26.00 1
FLEM 7 6 HEART OF DRE 1  $ 7.50 1
FLEM 8 2 LOVE CONQUE 1  $ 2.25
FLEM 8 8 BELTROIS 1  $ 12.00 1
« Last Edit: 2010-Sep-04, 10:08 AM by Wenona » Logged
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Steward
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2010-Sep-04, 11:22 AM

IAS has Buccaneers Prize at $3.70 ?
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Wenona
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2010-Sep-11, 09:08 AM

In the poor house last week - three placings at good odds but no cigar - this weeks qualifiers:

B3 H2 Slice & Dice
B3 H9 Reflection of Jade

B7 H4 Lilleelavee

S1 H4 Military Blonde
S1 H7 Hot Rocks

S3 H10 Ivory Pegasus

S7 H3 Dorf Command

M3 H3 Parisian Sunrise

M4 H8 Belles Ready

M5 H9 Peturbo
M5 H15 Devil's Force

M6 H5 Morgan Dollar
M6 H7 Rostova
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2010-Sep-11, 02:41 PM

The Sportsman
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Wenona
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2010-Sep-11, 02:46 PM

Where?
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