Racehorse TALK

I do not usually have what I would call "best bets" I try to pick out a dozen sometimes up to 20 bets in a day mostly at eachway odds sometimes double figure odds, if out of 20 I can get 4 or 5 winners I finish in front
my selections can change according to price,
I do have Good things some times but not on a daily or even weekly basis
a couple of weeks ago I backed Berlioz @ $200 the win, purely because he was a lightly raced Zabeel, unbeaten at Flemington in a race that was longer than a mile, I never really thought he could or would win, just he was way over the odds and I love Zabeel, now if I tipped him, first you would think I was mad, second if you didn't think I was mad and backed him I wouldn't get $200  would I??
another rule is I rarely bet at MV, although I like a couple down there that I think may be Value, Gotta Keep Cool in race 1 and keano in race 6
In sydney I like
New Day Rising he is a class horse he has had 3 trials to fit him for this resuming from a long spell but should be a good price
Lost For Words Should just win the only thing that stops me from declaring it is it 's form has been on affected tracks it should be a good track tomorrow, (By Zabeel)
No bet in race 3 as there is an Unknown here Raihana
Gergis, should be eachway odds and is on his home track good Jockey/trainer
Solar Charged, should lead easy as they say Chance Bye will take a sit, she has had one run on a good track and won easy, she has won at WF
Warwick stakes very difficult race, tossing up between Theseo and Dealer Principal, like Danleigh but too short on a Good track,
Back Bright Expectations and save on Decision Time and a little on Mutamayez
Triple Honour and save on Rock Classic

haven't even looked at Doomben/Adelaide/kembla/ Belmont/waracknabeel or the Gold Coast yet!
On wet tracks in QLD John Morrissey's horses usually go well

Well--good oh--Tony Abbotts bet ---Lost for Words---shouldbe a good bet--Ted E will back that I'm sure--if it wins his dribbling will be less---thanks for your thoughts Jim---lets hope we all have a profitable weekend.

At Doomben
Tisani Boy, watched him gallop and he has a knee action that I think will suit wet tracks
Newsnight, been racing well over shorter distances and I believe the step up in distance should suit this son of Carnegie(winner of the Arc I think)
Overanxious, Top rider, should be double figure odds and think he will handle a wet track
One Lickety Split, very promising and should be to strong for these horses

A couple from the Gold Coast
race 2 # 5 Haslington
race 3 # 4 Miss Burger
I think both will handle the wet

All bets depend on the price factor, if shorter that I expect I do not back them, conversely if others are much longer than expected I may swith ie, if Danleigh came up $5 I would probably swith to him.
The tips are the most likely bets but nothing set in stone, that is the best I can tell you at this point in time?

Riveted in  the first has spurs

Cancel Keano, he is a get back horse and will rely to much on luck on the is Goat track that is highly favouring the rails

Not really the rails Jim, as they're fanning wider but ya definitely need to be up there. Ones who get right back and try to swoop are just hopeless on what we've seen so far.

I'm a fan of Tio Rossa but with it's racing style it's going to have to be very good to win the next, at 4.5 not sure if it's worth laying

2010-08-21
15:54  837027846  2010-08-21
15:50  AUS WFrm (AUS) 21st Aug / 15:50 R6 1400m Grp2 / 3. Metal Bender
Back   20.00    Won  
 2010-08-21
15:54  837019988  2010-08-21
15:49  AUS WFrm (AUS) 21st Aug / 15:50 R6 1400m Grp2 / 3. Metal Bender
Back   17.50 Won  

As you can see I actually changed my mind in the Warwick stakes and backed Metal Bender, then backed hinm again in running, I thought he was home at the 600 he was bolting going a lot better that the fav at that point and they were betting $20
As I said my bets are often dictated by price(overs) I will take short prices but they have to have a lot going for them, I Thought Danleigh was a risk as his record on anything other than slow is not goodenough to have him fav at a short price in a field like that!
As for Keano he ran a respectable race but was ridden upside down because of Bias, the first and second were hard up on the fence all the way!
Trouble is with the Bias sometimes late in the day they go mad in front and the backmarker comes over the top, so it makes it hard to lay one as well!

Selections for Caulfield
R 1, # 10 Do Ra Mi
R 2, #  8  Salinas
R 3, #  7  Jolie Brise/ # 12 Cat's Pyjamas
R 4, #  4 Willow Creek
R 5, #  6 Headway
R 6, # 12 Typhoon Tracy
R 7, # 13 Mr Charlie
R 8, # 11 Royal Discretion

As you can see I reckon Moody/Nolen will have a fair day

Rosehill
R  1,  # 2 Sneaky Tsu
R  2,  # 8 Lighthorseman/ #1 Malambo
R  3,  # 9 Mr Edison
R  4,  # 6 Patronyme/ # 9 Trim
R  5,  # 3 Scouting Wide/ # 13 Sherpa Tenzing/ # 2 Gergis
R  6,  # 2 Decision Time/ # 3 Hinchinbrook/ # 12 Chance Bye
R  7,  # 1 More Joyous
R  8,  # 11 Star Ripper

Newcastle
R 6,  #  3 Mr Ponzi

Pakenham
R 1,  # 4 Ultimate Analysis (one of Thompsons all it's runs have been on wet tracks, unfortunately it's wet again but he drops in class and the distance suits and he is by Zabeel so he may be ready to do something and will be a reasonable price)

Adelaide
R 7, #  1 Alcopop should be too classy even on a wet track, wouldn't take less than $5 though

No real specials but I feel the best gambles are

In Sydney
Lighthorseman
Patronyme
More Joyous

In Melbourne

Do Ra Mi
Salinas
Headway

Newcastle
Mr Ponzi

Adelaide
Alcopop

Jim,

Thank you fot your tips--doesn't mean I back all---but fck--love your input---you are a good man.

Mate I am not sure I will back them either as price(value) dictates a lot of what I back, I find if you have 3 selections in each race the 2nd and 3rd tips win almost as much if not as much as the first tip so if they are better prices then that is the way I go, or I back the longest priced one to win the most and the short priced ones to save on, as I did with Metal Bender last week, $7.5 in pre post(too Short) and $17 when betting was serious(big overs)

Jim

Looking at your tips one of us is going to lose a shit load of cash    

I can find a race we agree on

Rosehill
SR 2 # 1 Syreon, blinkers back on, I can smell a rat?
SR 3 # 4 Trader working very well
SR 4 # 2 Decision Time, should be too good
SR 5 # 5 Scouting Wide, eachway forever, Q with the fav
SR 6 # 4 More Joyous, best bet, $1.80 a good price and is currently $2.5
SR 7 # 2 Montana Flyer, think it is big overs @ $15
SR 7 # 6 Trim, also overs and well weighted save on her
SR 8 # 12 Maluckyday, only bad luck can beat him, save on Stratofortress in case MLD runs into a dead end

Mooney Valley
MR 1 # 7 Pitt Street
MR 2 # 2 Berlioz, distance should suit and has too much class(not if track is worse than slow)
MR 7 # 8 Typhoon Tracy, should dictate and be hard to catch, think she will handle wet at the Valley better than anywhere else and should be close to $4 on betfair
MR 8 # 1 Lady Lynette, fit backing up from a good run last week, drawn well, great eachway chance
MR 9 # 10 Royal Discretion, anywhere near his best should be hard to beat and at the right price

Morphetville
AR 6 # 1 Alcopop, going to rely on his class to win this

Belmont
PR 7 # 1 Scenic Bullet, has a big task first up with 61kg's over 2000m but he has a very good trainer and he must be going really well to attempt it, may be worth a few dollars

Berlioz, I was lining up to collect the 1-2-3 boxed trifecta until he chucked it in.