Racehorse TALK

Rothesay and More Joyous are untapped but I reckon Dealers Principal has the others covered, at the prices I will be risking him beating them as well, I reckon a boxed Quinella will get a collect, Nash has only been beaten once on MJ and that was the day she bucked, he ain't riding her in her biggest test, for me that is a worry, great replacement but a copy ain't the original!!

Here here - if she can win giving weight to a couple of smart types she's going to be awfully hard to beat when she's getting weight off them.

JP - what's your thoughts on her getting beyond 1600m?

Backing her to beat her own sex is one thing, (and they bet $3 there) backing her to beat high class sprinters of the opposite sex is another, not that I don't think she will win, just I wouldn't take a short price, as for her getting 1600 she has already done that against her own sex, so yes she will run 1600, whether others can run it faster is again another thing, I think on what she has already done indicates she is a very high class mare, but she has to keep stepping up in class , for that I want the odds in my favour!
She has a pedigree to get a lot further than 1600, it is just a matter of how high the class is when she is stretched out in distance and can she handle the class at the distance, not the distance itself, personally I would be setting her for the Caulfield Cup if she was mine, she would have a lot less weight and possibly a weaker field than the Cox Plate!

Trusting will need at least another run, but I think he's the real deal.  He looks a 1800 plusser to me.  I reckon he would win the Mackinnon if he went that way.  Tale of the Cats are usually sprinters but I think he is more like his mum Legible.

Melito proved the fillies can mix it with the boys, so More Joyous (who is better) will be in the finish, probable winner.

Rothesay is the big watch of this Spring, but I'd forgive him for getting knocked off, he will shit in the Toorak.  But might win this.

I like Brilliant Light but light handicap weights prob made him look better than what he is.

Couldn't come at Melito being better than More Joyous.

Melito two G1's in the autumn/winter.

I think MJ is better than Melito, was just highlighting how well the latter went...thus I expect MJ to do even better.

No probs Elvstroem 

I hope you're right having specked her in Cox Plate when betting opened but still has a long way to go.

With no Trusting in the race I'm thinking she's got a better hope now - still want to see Rothesay do it before I take short odds.

No betting but will be watching with interest.

Bit dissapointing to see MJ vs Rothesay from a punting perspective - would have backed either against anything in the land at 1400 - early cash for rothesay indicates he is prob forward - 2 great horses

slight leaning to MJ

How do they honestly work out the weights in this

Black Piranha is a 2X Group 1 winner, and Sniper's Bullet a 3X Group 1 winner, who has won 2 of those in the past 12 months, but the latter gets 1 kilo allowance from the former.  Surely Sniper's Bullet would be weighted the equal of or higher than Black Piranha?

Then you have gap of weights and Descerado is weighted at 55.5kg.  Granted his form during the autumn was fantastic placing in both Derby and the Rosehill Guinea, he is still yet to win a stakes race. So can someone explain how he gets weighted higher than Group 1 winners Dealer Principal, More Joyous, Empire's Choice and Coniston Bluebird.  Then still higher above other Group or Listed winners Centennial Park, Drumbeats, Brilliant Light and Rothesay?  The latter two had brilliant form in the autumn and winter.

Based on the weights alone, Brilliant Light, Rothesay and More Joyous are the ones to beat.  I think you'd be laughing if you were their connections honestly.

They would be ratings based wouldn't they ?

They would be discretionary I reckon, Snipers Bullet won a couple of his Group Ones in Perth(that has to be suspect Group Ones) Dealers Principal won the Rosehill Guineas the horse that ran second to him would have only met him a kilo or so worse the next time they met, it was a long while ago, Descerado ran a place in the Rosehill Guineas which would put him with in at the most 2 Kg's of Dealers Principal(DP would then be downgraded because it was a long time ago) then Descerado went on to run second to Shoot Out in the Derby that would put him above DP, More Joyous has a mares allowance that is why he is giving her weight, take away the allowance and she is giving him weight!! Empires Choice won a suspect Group One and it was a long time ago and ditto Coniston Bluebird, the others are second rate Handicappers with the possible exception of Rothesay and he has never contested a Group One
P.S. when I say Second Rate Handicappers I mean they are rough possibilities in a race like an Epsom or even a Toorak with a light weight, still pretty good horses but not leading contenders for the Group Ones, I think the Handicapper has it pretty right!

DD that is simplifying a complex question, if you take the step to the next question, the ratings must be wrong?? if he thinks the weights are wrong then it is only natural to believe the Ratings must be wrong that brings the weights that were allotted, if that is all you tell them, I was trying to explain why the horses have the ratings that they do,
If I had just said the weights are right because I said so!  That would hardly satisfy an enquirying mind, he may not accept the explanation but at least he can see how the handicapper may have come to his conclusion on his Ratings/weights

These ratings, are they based on the supposed best ever performace jazz like Timeform?

They are, but they do come down over time if a horse is not maintaining its form.

Thats why we see horses like Cedar Manor and Jymcarew running around in low grade races.