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Author Topic: Arakaan's search for money  (Read 5708 times)
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arakaan
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Original Post 2010-Oct-05, 12:18 PM

Title says it all.

Just bored so going to see if I can actually match a challenge like I did on the greyhounds except on sport.

Will most probably fail but who cares.

Bets will be at several places always specified and the amount bets will be in Units.

Will Keep stats in the opening post.


as at 25/10/10

Completed Bets
Outlayed         4,143.00 units
Return             4,392.01 units
Profit                249.01 units

Live bets         15 units
 
« Last Edit: 2010-Oct-25, 02:27 PM by arakaan » Logged
 
arakaan
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2010-Oct-25, 01:32 PM

Another bet that needed its own thread.

This one is almost a gimme. Vince Young was beaten up last week and from all reports is likely going to be the backup QB this week.

Collins who is likely to start is 37 and even last week looked to wear down as the game went on. Also on top of this Tennessee have the star Running back in Chris Johnson.

Even if he was starting QB Kolb is still more likely to pass for more yardage than Young anyway.

So this bet will either be void if Young sits out, or if what I think might happen occurs which is Young is put in for collins at some point then it becomes in my opinion some very easy money.


Bet 237 - 100 Units @ $1.50 on Kevin KOLB (Philadelphia) to beat Vince YOUNG (Tennessee) - Most Gross Passing Yards (Centrebet)

And a big thumbsup to centrebet for taking the bets. No issues with the amount which I thought might happen. 


Young was active but as the backup QB and didn't get onto the field so bet was refunded.
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arakaan
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2010-Oct-25, 01:34 PM

Greatest market ever everyone needs to get on this.

Bet 209 - 100 Units @ $1.65 on Minnesota Vikings in VIKINGS v GREEN BAY PACKERS - Most Net Rushing Yards (Centrebet)


this market is so ridiculous I'll explain later just get on.

OK the explanation.

Minnesota Vikings have the one of the top 2 rushers in the league in Adrian Peterson. Green Bay lost their leading rusher Ryan Grant in week 1. They since have to very average rushers in Jackson and Kuhn, but of course with Aaron Rodgers at QB are first and foremost a passing oriented team.

rushing yards for each team in each week is as follows

Week 1   132-91 to green bay(vikings played the superbowl champions)
Week 2   156-91 to vikings
Week 3   183-63 to vikings
Week 4   green bay 92 yards vikings had the bye
Week 5   157-96 to green bay with 77yards of that on 1 run by GB
Week 6   95-76 to Vikings

Vikings average 124.2/game to green bay 101.8/game in rushing offense

On the defense side vikings concede on average 102.2/game whereas green bay concede 112.3/game

Add to the mix the addition of Randy Moss 2 weeks ago to the Vikings WR crew and it means that Green Bay should not be able to regularly bring 8 in the box to help stuff the running game.

Everything points to Peterson and the vikings running more than Green Bay.

Haven't seen this type of team market in a while and surprised they have chosen what is a pretty lobsided choice for the market.

I'm happy to be wrong and lose the lot on this. If I do then I know well and truly I can never beat the bookies.


As easy as it comes. Not even close in the end.

Vikings 196 Yards
Green Bay  84 Yards

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arakaan
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2010-Oct-25, 01:51 PM

a great day 24hrs on the punt. 
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worldisavampire
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2010-Oct-25, 02:07 PM

As easy as it comes. Not even close in the end.

Vikings 196 Yards
Green Bay  84 Yards




Thumb Up   Thumb Up

I listened. 

Seeing as my own personal bets revolved around the Ravens/Broncos/Saints treble. I need my head read betting in these NFL games. It is too bloody hard. Expect another follower Ara. I think I am jumping aboard  biggrin
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arakaan
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2010-Oct-25, 02:19 PM

Glad to see someone else profited from the wrongly priced market. 
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arakaan
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2010-Oct-25, 02:25 PM

End of week 3 standings

Week 1  +116.81
Week 2  -19.00
Week 3  +151.20

Overall  +249.01
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calgary
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2010-Oct-29, 03:44 PM

Yeah ara - you were a real genius locating that Minny v GB net rushing yards bet 
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arakaan
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2010-Oct-29, 09:27 PM

Bets with a bit of the reasoning behind them for fun.

Bet 237 - 15 Units @ $2.05 on FSV Frankfurt -0.5 Asiann Handicap to beat Paderborn in German Bundesliga II (Bet365) 
these 2 already have met at FSV home ground this season in the german cup and FSV won 2-0 and also beat them away from home last year. On top of that in the league matches Paderborn in running dead last on away record table losing 4 from 4 and a 2-8 goal record.

Bet 238 - 15 Units @ $1.80 on Greuther Furth to beat Erzgebirge Aue in German Bundesliga II (Bet365)

Furth have won 4 of last 5 vs Aue at their home ground and in this season are 4 wins 1 draw and a 10-2 goal record at home. $1.80 seems overs to me.

Bet 239 - 15 Units @ $1.70 on Genoa v Inter Milan under 2.5 Goals in Italian Serie A (Bet365)

This is more of a hunch bet that it will be a tight encounter with a little evidence for that with Inter's 4 away games this season producing a total of just 5 goals total for all teams.

Bet 240 - 15 Units @ $2.50 on Celta Vigo to beat Rec de Huelva in Spanish Segunda (Bet365) 

Pretty straight forward this one. Despite being the away team, Celta are 2nd in the league and have scored in all 9 games they have played wheres Rec de Huelva are 2nd last and while having 5 draws in 9 games they have only scored 3 goals. If Celta score I think they win the match.


Bet 241 - 25 Units @ $1.53 on Boulogne v Reims under 2.5 Goals in French Ligue II (Bet365)
Boulogne look to be playing a very defesive game this season. Have played 12 for 2 wins and 10 draws scoring only 9 goals in those 12 games while conceeding only 6. Last 9 games they have played in the league have all been under the 2.5 goal line and this has been the case 11 out of 12 games this season.

Bet 242 - 15 Units @ $2.15 on Clermont Foot to beat Metz in French Ligue II (Sportingbet)
Metz have the 4th worst away record in the league and also have lost all 4 of their games played at Clermont Foot's home ground.

Bet 243 - 45 Units @ $1.57 on Maastricht v Apeldoorn over 2.5 Goals in Holland Jupiler league (Bet365)
last seven times these two have met the match goals have been totals of 5,5,5,5,4,5 & 6 and they have covered this line in 12 of last 14 matches between these teams. Bet of the night for mine.

Bet 244 - 10 Units @ $3.80 on Maastricht v Apeldoorn over (4,4.5) Goals in Holland Jupiler league (Bet365)
 for those who don't know that bet means 4 goals is a stake refund, any higher is a win.

Bet 245 - 10 Units @ $8.00 on Telstar to beat Cambuur Leeuwarde in Holland Jupiler league (Bet365)
Have beaten there opponents 5 of the last 7 meeting when playing at Cambuur Leeuwarde home ground. Telstar have a 2 draw and 2 loss record away this year but 3 of those 4 games were away at the top 3 clubs in the league.  Cambuur Leeuwarde are a mid table team.

Bet 246 - 30 Units @ $1.57 on First Vienna FC 1894 v Hartberg over 2.5 Goals in Austrian Erste Liga (Bet365)

8 of vienna's last 10 games have involved 4 match goals or more and 5 of their last 6 games have had 5 or more match goals scored. Hope the trend continues against the bottom of the table club.

Bet 247 - 20 Units @ $1.80 on Benfica v Pacos Ferreira over 2.5 Goals in Portuguese Super Liga (Bet365)

The last 10 times these 2 have played at benefica's home ground it is 9 wins one loss to the home team. But @ $1.20 odd there's not much value. Portugal has traditionally from my experience been a lower scoring league. However in 9 of the last 10 games these 2 have played at benefica the total match goals has also cleared the 2.5 goal line so going with the value bet.


Bet 248 - 15 Units @ $2.00 on Sligo Rovers v St Patricks under 2.5 Goals in Irish Premier Division (Bet365)

A bit of a speculator this one. These two teams play more matches that clear the line than dont except it seems when they play each other recently. In the 7 matches played over the last 2 seasons between these two the unders has got up 6 times. In fact this year in the 3 games played between these two team only 1 goal has been scored in total.

Bet 248 - 25 Units @ $1.53 on Debrecen to beat Kaposvári Rákóczi FC in Hungarian 1st Soproni Liga (Bet365)
As easy a reason as it gets. Best home team in the league who have beaten tonights opponents the last 6 times they have played them at their home ground.

So lets see how they go.  biggrin
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arakaan
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2010-Oct-30, 08:03 PM

just for interest as of last weeks results all bets if level staked for 1 unit would've returned the massive profit of 1.17 units over 236 bets.   lol

goes to show the importance of the staking of the bets.
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Steward
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2010-Oct-30, 08:07 PM

Who did you take in the Mr Feelgood Vs Blacks A Fake match race ?
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arakaan
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2010-Oct-30, 08:48 PM

JK Viljandi Tulevik v FC Levadia Tallinn in Estonian 1st League
An amaizing stat here. Tulevik have not scored a single goal against Tallinn in the 17 matches they have played since 2006. In saying that it does look like Tulevik have improved. The last 5 games in the last 2 seasons have at least not exceeded 3-0 and in fact the last 2 at tuleviks ground have been 0-0 and 0-1 compared to some real floggings in every match 3 or 4 years back. So with that the bets on this game are

Bet 250 - 40 units @ $1.975 on JK Viljandi Tulevik v FC Levadia Tallinn under 3.5 goals in Estonian 1st League (Bet365)

Bet 251 - 6 units @ $13.00 on FC Levadia Tallinn to beat JK Viljandi Tulevik by 4-0 in Estonian 1st League (Bet365)

Bet 252 - 4 units @ $21.00 on FC Levadia Tallinn to beat JK Viljandi Tulevik by 5-0 in Estonian 1st League (Bet365)


FC Lootus v FC Kuressaare in Estonian 1st League
the two worst teams and they cant defend(over 190 goals conceeded by these teams this season) so just going to go overs on the match goals

Bet 253 - 20 units @ $1.57 on FC Lootus v FC Kuressaare over 2.5 goals in Estonian 1st League (Bet365)


Metalac Gornji v Habitpharm Javor  in Serbian 1st league
two teams who have forgotten how to score. so punting on a low scoring game.

Bet 254 - 10 units @ $6.50 on Metalac Gornji v Habitpharm Javor being 0-0 in Serbian 1st league (Bet365) 

Bet 255 - 30 units @ $1.45 on Metalac Gornji v Habitpharm Javor under 2.5 goals in Serbian 1st league (Bet365) 


Levski Sofia v Lokomotiv Plovdiv in Bulgarian Vyscha Liga

Levski have not lost at home to Plovdiv in the last decade. Levski's last 10 games have 9 match goals overs and 1 where 2 was scored. So in light of those stats

Bet 254 - 20 units @ $1.66 on Levski Sofia to win & Over  2.5 goals combo  in Bulgarian Vyscha Liga (Bet365) 


that'll do for now.  beer
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arakaan
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2010-Oct-30, 10:07 PM

one more bet added

Hajduk Split v NK Hrvatski Dragovoljac
Bet 255 - 25 units @ $2.10 on Hajduk Split & Under  3.5 combo  in Croatian 1st league (Bet365)
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