Racehorse TALK

I'm very interested in seeing how people analyse their performance whether it be a system or your own tips.

Do you analyse lay betting differently to other betting methods ?

As most of my concentration is on lay betting at the moment I am interested to see how others are analysing their performance.  I don't think PROFIT is a good enough clue to a systems performance when you are trying to decide on the long term prospects of the selection system/tips.  Especially when laying as if you are wrong the cost can add up very quickly.

Here is how I am currently doing it and I would be very interested on thoughts and alternative methods.

1. Use a simple calc to work out expectation in dollars.  A positive figure from this calc will mean you are laying with value (ie under the odds).

Expecation = 1/(1 - StrikeRate) - 1 - AverageOdds

I would expect a figure above $2.00 here to be a good system but anything positive means you are laying under the odds.  Anything negative is a long term loser.

2. Use the lay keely edge calculation.  It is reproduced here but a better explanation can be found on google.  It provides an edge.

Expectation = (StrikeRate * Profit) - ((1 - StrikeRate) * Liability)

I would expect a figure above 10% here to be a good system but anything positive means you are laying under the odds.  Anything negative is a long term loser.

3. Coverage of your maximum Winner.  If you lay up to $5 how many times can you cover a horse winning at those odds.  I would feel a system needs at least 10 - 20 coverages before you can be confident you have analysed enough selections.

4. Level stakes profit/loss.  This is based on staking to lose a fixed amount per selection.  This is the correct way to do level stakes for laying (I learnt this here and agree with it).  You need to analyse the system using a risk of $100.  Anything above $1000 profit would indicate  a good system.

Well I have thrown this out there and I think all of the above is a fairly in depth way of analysing lay systems but I would be very interested in new ways to do it.  I am always looking to learn.

Here are the questions I would like others to answer:

1. Do you know any other ways ?
2. Do you think the above are good /terrible ways to analyse lay betting systems ?
3. Are my signposts for good systes (10% edge, etc) set at the right levels?  Should they be higher/lower ?

Please comment/critique and argue for or against the above methods.