Racehorse TALK

2010 Melbourne Cup Results

Finish	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Weight	Margin
1st	8	AMERICAIN(11)	Gerald Mosse	Alain de Royer Dupre	54.5	3-26.87
2nd	24	MALUCKYDAY(5)	Luke Nolen	Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes	51.0	2.8L
3rd	3	SO YOU THINK(2)	Steven Arnold	Bart Cummings	56.0	3.3L
4th	4	ZIPPING(15)	Nicholas Hall	Robert Hickmott	55.5	5.0L
5th	12	HARRIS TWEED(12)	Brad Rawiller	Murray & Bjorn Baker	54.0	5.5L
6th	19	HOLBERG(9)	Frankie Dettori	Saeed Bin Suroor	53.5	6.3L
7th	13	MANIGHAR(19)	Damien Oliver	Luca Cumani	54.0	9.3L
8th	20	PRECEDENCE(14)	James Winks	Bart Cummings	53.5	9.4L
9th	5	ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE(8)	Glen Boss	William J Knight	55.0	10.9L
10th	6	MR MEDICI(4)	Darren Beadman	Peter Ho	55.0	12.1L
11th	23	ONCE WERE WILD(10)	Jim Cassidy	Gai Waterhouse	51.5	12.4L
12th	9	TOKAI TRICK(3)	Shinji Fujita	Kenji Nonaka	54.5	12.7L
13th	7	SHOOT OUT(16)	Corey Brown	John Wallace	55.0	13.5L
14th	15	MONACO CONSUL(13)	Craig Williams	Michael Moroney	54.0	15.2L
15th	14	MASTER O’REILLY(17)	Vlad Duric	Danny O’Brien	54.0	18.0L
16th	2	CAMPANOLOGIST(18)	Kerrin McEvoy	Saeed Bin Suroor	56.0	18.5L
17th	16	PROFOUND BEAUTY(21)	Patrick Smullen	Dermot K Weld	54.0	19.0L
18th	1	SHOCKING(23)	Michael Rodd	Mark Kavanagh	57.0	19.1L
19th	21	RED RULER(7)	Mark Du Plessis	John Sargent	53.5	20.1L
20th	10	BUCCELLATI(20)	Steven King	Tony Noonan	54.0	23.1L
21st	22	LINTON(22)	Brett Prebble	Robert Hickmott	52.0	35.1L
22nd	17	ZAVITE(6)	Michael Walker	Anthony Cummings	54.0	47.1L
FF	11	DESCARADO(1)	Nash Rawiller	Gai Waterhouse	54.0

This year's Melbourne Cup is one where I wouldn't worry about those below (say) 5th position. The track conditions elongated the margins, and would give unrealistic ratings e.g. Shocking is not a 25 kg inferior horse to the winner.

The 6th and 7th horses are unlikely to be seen again before next year, if at all.

Any thoughts?

just a comment...no more...dissapointed in the 14th position..thinking it was a horse on the up.
impressed with the position of the 8th...wouldn't have given him that sort of chance.

am going to really like this thread for the maths involved.

Horse	Race	Carried	Limit	Race Rating	Beaten	Adjust	Rate
Americain	G1 2010 Melbourne Cup 3200m (S)	54.5	51.0	68.0	0	0	71.5
Maluckyday	G1 2010 Melbourne Cup 3200m (S)	51.0	51.0	68.0	2.8	0	63.8
So You Think	G1 2010 Melbourne Cup 3200m (S)	56.0	51.0	68.0	3.3	0	68.05
Zipping	G1 2010 Melbourne Cup 3200m (S)	55.5	51.0	68.0	5	0	65
Harris Tweed	G1 2010 Melbourne Cup 3200m (S)	54.5	51.0	68.0	5.5	0	63.25

Can someone sanity check the maths on this? It's been a long time since I've done any ratings calcs - probably a decade 

PP - my only comment would be that I thought DS used a ratio of 1kg = 1 length over staying trips rather the usual ratio of 1.5kg = 1 length.

Cal, that sounds logical. Will adjust accordingly.

I could never understand that rating of weight equals distance,, like saying on average all pieces of string are 3 feet long then betting on the length of the next piece of string!! How can you say all horses have the same weight carrying ability?? not saying you are wrong just that my experience with horses says there is a gulf of difference in weight carrying ability between individual horses, it is something that someone who has no idea of horses would say, even humans would be different, if Hulk Hogan could run 100metres in 12 seconds carrying 20kg's and I could run 100 metres in 12 seconds carrying 10 KG's we would theoretically deadheat, put another 10kg's in our lead bags and we should deadheat again right?? only it would make precious little difference to Hogan but it would crush me and I would battle to the finish line in time for breakfast the next day so how can you say it affected us both the same???
A little poetic licence I know but unless you had an expert horseman inspect each horse and give it a rating of weight carrying ability(which can be done over time)it is not a matter of saying big horses are better weight carriers than little horses either, they carry weight on their Shoulder so it depends on their shoulder angles and strength,  it seems a little senseless to me to assess all horses the same? I don't worry about it weight too much from a viewpoint of how many lengths it will cost a horse but would love an explanation of how any conclusion can be arrived at along those lines??

1kg = 1 length

Horse	Race	Carried	Limit	Race Rating	Beaten	Adjust	Rate
Americain	G1 2010 Melbourne Cup 3200m (S)	54.5	51.0	68.0	0	0	71.5
Maluckyday	G1 2010 Melbourne Cup 3200m (S)	51.0	51.0	68.0	2.8	0	65.2
So You Think	G1 2010 Melbourne Cup 3200m (S)	56.0	51.0	68.0	3.3	0	69.7
Zipping	G1 2010 Melbourne Cup 3200m (S)	55.5	51.0	68.0	5	0	67.5
Harris Tweed	G1 2010 Melbourne Cup 3200m (S)	54.5	51.0	68.0	5.5	0	66

If we retrofit the Geelong Cup, using the G3 race rating of 64 kg and applying the actual limit of 53 kg, this is what I come up with:

Horse	Race	Carried	Limit	Race Rating	Beaten	Adjust	Rate
Americain	G3 2010 Geelong Cup 2400m (D)	58.0	53.0	64.0	0.0	0.0	69
Moudre	G3 2010 Geelong Cup 2400m (D)	54.5	53.0	64.0	0.2	0.0	65.3
Exceptionally	G3 2010 Geelong Cup 2400m (D)	53.5	53.0	64.0	0.7	0.0	63.8
Mr Charlie	G3 2010 Geelong Cup 2400m (D)	53.0	53.0	64.0	1.2	0.0	62.8
Macedonian	G3 2010 Geelong Cup 2400m (D)	53.0	53.0	64.0	1.3	0.0	62.7
Count Encosta	G3 2010 Geelong Cup 2400m (D)	53.0	53.0	64.0	1.6	0.0	62.4
Saint Encosta	G3 2010 Geelong Cup 2400m (D)	53.5	53.0	64.0	2.4	0.0	62.1
Once Were Wild	G3 2010 Geelong Cup 2400m (D)	55.0	53.0	64.0	3.4	2.0	64.6

It looks about right to me. Americain ran against stronger horses in the MC and a slightly higher rating results in the MC. I gave Once Were Wild a couple of extra kilos - she was a bit stiff.

And retrofitting the Lexus. Once again, using a race rating of 64 kg for the group 3 and the actual limit of the race of 53 kg. Note that I'm only rating horses that finished "about 5 lengths" from the winner.

Horse	Race	Carried	Limit	Race Rating	Beaten	Adjust	Rate
Maluckyday	G3 2010 Lexus Stks 2500m (D)	53.0	53.0	64.0	0.0	0.0	64
Linton	G3 2010 Lexus Stks 2500m (D)	55.5	53.0	64.0	1.8	0.0	64.7
Once Were Wild	G3 2010 Lexus Stks 2500m (D)	55.0	53.0	64.0	2.0	0.0	64
Moudre	G3 2010 Lexus Stks 2500m (D)	54.5	53.0	64.0	3.0	0.0	62.5
Count Encosta	G3 2010 Lexus Stks 2500m (D)	53.0	53.0	64.0	5.2	0.0	58.8

I find the similar rating of the winner in this his subsequent rating in the MC encouraging. Also, Moudre rated 62.5 here (beaten 3L by MLD), and 65.3 in the Geelong Cup (beaten 0.2L by Americain). Intuitively feel this is about right.

Adding MLD's runaway victory in the City Tatts Cup. Once again, haven't touched the race rating (63 kg for Listed) or the limit.

Horse	Race	Carried	Limit	Race Rating	Beaten	Adjust	Rate
Maluckyday	L 2010 City Tatts Cup 2400m (D)	54.5	54.5	63.0	0.0	0.0	63
Kontiki Park	L 2010 City Tatts Cup 2400m (D)	54.5	54.5	63.0	4.3	0.0	58.7

I understand how to work it out, how do you know there is any validity in it, that was my question??,  how can you say if MLD and Americain met again that weight would be the deciding factor?? say the weights (and ratings) favoured one, say that if they both met again with the same weight difference (favouring Americain)but they were both raised say 5kg's, I would want to be on MLD but the weight ratings would say he couldn't turn the tables wouldn't they?? how do you know that another 5kg's would mean the same to both horses??
if all those 5 horses met on the same weight terms only with weights raised 5kg's do you think the placings would change?? it is only opinion but like religion I don't see how you can even have an opinion on it without knowing the physical makeup of the horses involved??
I am not trying to be a smart arse, I just don't understand how Don Scott could arrive at that conclusion, I remember Cliff Cary was an avid weights man back in the early 60's, his view was as you stated 1.5kg = 1 length, when I don't understand something I question  it, probably why I am not religious, in saying that I am not an Atheist either that doesn't make any more sense either, I argued with my Algebra teacher at school, all I could ever get whether it be Algebra or religion was Because I said so!! you just have to accept it, well do you have an answer?? why does 1kg = 1 length to every horse?? cos Don Scott says so I just have to accept it??

Jim. It is not a precise science. If it was, then....I was going to say that everyone would be a millionaires....but in fact everything would pay $1.00 the win and place.

It is an attempt to apply a quantity (the rating) to a horse based on past performances.

I know different horses carry extra weight better than others. Read an article once by Darren Beadman talking about this subject. He stated that the more powerful a horse's shoulders were, the more likely it was to carry a bigger weight. But this is one of those intangible factors you have to live with.

The 1kg = 1 length would have been calculated over much data trawling. Acknowledged that it cannot be accepted as entirely accurate.

So you just accept it without question?? I bet you was good at Algebra too!!
Nothing in racing is an exact science, this just has no basis in logic that I can see, I bet you could say 2kg = 1 length or even 4 kg = 1 length and be just as successful, tell me why it wouldn't?? Just kidding, it was a rhetorical question with no obvious answer anyway

We will press on in spite of the doubters.

Summer Cup.

Horse	Race	Carried	Limit	Race Rating	Beaten	Adjust	Rate
Spechenka	G3 2010 Summer Cup 2400m (G)	53.0	53.0	64.0	0.0	0.0	64
Strike One	G3 2010 Summer Cup 2400m (G)	54.5	53.0	64.0	1.5	0.0	64
Let Them Have It	G3 2010 Summer Cup 2400m (G)	53.0	53.0	64.0	3.5	0.0	60.5
Lang	G3 2010 Summer Cup 2400m (G)	53.0	53.0	64.0	3.7	0.0	60.3
Bellagio Wynn	G3 2010 Summer Cup 2400m (G)	54.0	53.0	64.0	3.8	0.0	61.2
Beijing Boy	G3 2010 Summer Cup 2400m (G)	53.5	53.0	64.0	4.5	0.0	60
Rock Kingdom	G3 2010 Summer Cup 2400m (G)	58.5	53.0	64.0	4.8	0.0	64.7

Queens Cup aka Queen Elizabeth. Moudre's rating here franks the Geelong Cup ratings.

Horse	Race	Carried	Limit	Race Rating	Beaten	Adjust	Rate
Moudre	G3 2010 Queens Cup 2600m (D)	55.0	53.5	64.0	0.0	0.0	65.5
Capecover	G3 2010 Queens Cup 2600m (D)	56.0	53.5	64.0	0.8	0.0	65.7
Persian Star	G3 2010 Queens Cup 2600m (D)	53.5	53.5	64.0	0.9	0.0	63.1
Dream Pedlar	G3 2010 Queens Cup 2600m (D)	53.5	53.5	64.0	1.3	0.0	62.7
Above Average	G3 2010 Queens Cup 2600m (D)	55.0	53.5	64.0	2.0	0.0	63.5
Exceptionally	G3 2010 Queens Cup 2600m (D)	53.5	53.5	64.0	2.1	0.0	61.9
Eastern Aria	G3 2010 Queens Cup 2600m (D)	56.0	53.5	64.0	2.2	0.0	64.3
My Bentley	G3 2010 Queens Cup 2600m (D)	53.5	53.5	64.0	2.7	0.0	61.3
Faint Perfume	G3 2010 Queens Cup 2600m (D)	55.5	53.5	64.0	2.8	0.0	63.2
Drunken Sailor	G3 2010 Queens Cup 2600m (D)	57.0	53.5	64.0	3.1	0.0	64.4
Mr Charlie	G3 2010 Queens Cup 2600m (D)	53.5	53.5	64.0	4.1	0.0	59.9