Racehorse TALK

Wouldn't the fact that a horse can not carry a certain weight come out in the ratings and class factors ?

If a horse can not carry WFA for older horses than that would be reflected ultimately in the class he reaches ?

Jim you may not be able to carry that extra 10 kgs against Hulk Hogan and perform with any dignity but against your truly I am sure you would have no problems. What does that tell us ?

For the sake of this exercise undertaken by PP7 and others, if a horse can not carry weight it is simply not up to the relevant class of race we are rating.

A couple of interesting observations from the numbers so far:

- Spechenka rated about the same as Rock Kingdom and Strike One, and I doubt anyone would be too keen on those latter two winning/running well in Melbourne Cups.

The Queens Cup for mine also shows that Moudre, despite winning, is nothing to write home about. Rated around the same as the international pair but for mine would have to get a much weaker Melbourne Cup in 2011 or improve significantly again to win it.

Can we take a line through Let Them Have It to rate todays Randwick 2400m contest ?

The Verminator.............................64.5
Mr Latar........................................61
Patricians Glory.............................65.5
White Horse Inn...........................62
Warringah....................................64.5
Dave The Dude............................60
Hello Mister..................................60
Halfwaytolondon..........................57
Yaqubi..........................................62
Moderna.......................................57.5
Let Them Have It.........................60.5

Cal, I don't think a 64 kg rating would be enough to win the Cup and Spechenka will have to find a few lengths improvement in the coming year - not beyond him. At this stage I want to develop a consistent methodology. If at some point in the future we have enough data to conclude that the Summer Cup of 2010 was a weaker race than the rating assigned, I would we suggest that we downgrade that then rather than guessing now. In fact, this will be one of the major challenges of the project. What do you think?

As for Moudre, he wasn't beaten far by Americain in the Geelong Cup. I think he has rated fairly consistently and is one of the top 2400m horses in the country.

I was only going to do black type races Matt, but there isn't that many 2400+m races around these days - you reckon we should add these?

Interesting that we had two ratings for Macedonian - 62.7 and 59. If he were to win today's Bagot, he would have rated 68.5, perhaps suggesting the big weight was against him (all very well to say this after the race!).

Ultimately you could post the top 100 ranked stayers in the head thread. Despite what Calgary  might believe there is more than enough stayers in Australia to have a clear top 100+.

Horse	Race	Carried	Limit	Race Rating	Beaten	Adjust	Rate
Rentarossa	L 2011 Bagot Hcp 2800m (G)	53.5	53.5	63.0	0.0	0.0	63
Our Serena	L 2011 Bagot Hcp 2800m (G)	53.5	53.5	63.0	1.5	0.0	61.5
Irel	L 2011 Bagot Hcp 2800m (G)	53.5	53.5	63.0	2.0	0.0	61
Star Of Jeune	L 2011 Bagot Hcp 2800m (G)	53.5	53.5	63.0	2.1	0.0	60.9
Davcon	L 2011 Bagot Hcp 2800m (G)	55.0	53.5	63.0	3.1	0.0	61.4
Pergola	L 2011 Bagot Hcp 2800m (G)	53.5	53.5	63.0	3.9	0.0	59.1
Gotta Keep Cool	L 2011 Bagot Hcp 2800m (G)	57.0	53.5	63.0	4.9	0.0	61.6
Family Bliss	L 2011 Bagot Hcp 2800m (G)	53.5	53.5	63.0	5.0	0.0	58
Macedonian	L 2011 Bagot Hcp 2800m (G)	59.0	53.5	63.0	5.3	0.0	63.2

Macedonian rates 63.2 despite running 9th. It is good for the consistency of the ratings. I had a couple of lazy dollars each way on the winner when it won last week - someone tipped it in Triples comp and it just caught my eye. I'm kicking myself I didn't repeat the exercise today. 

Matt, had a look at today's results and a couple of observations.

- Today's race was a Benchmark 80
- Let Them Have It ran 3rd in the G3 Summer Cup with 53 kg beaten 3.5 lengths
- Today, LTHI ran last in the BM80 race with 2.5 kg more beaten 6.7 lengths

The assumption that LTHI rated the same today as he did in the Summer Cup is something I would question.

The Verminator (where do they get these names from) carried 0.5 kg above the limit. For him to rate 64.5 would mean that he BM80 race would be the equivalent of a G3 race. I would suggest that LTHI has rated well below his Summer Cup run today, and that data be best discarded.

Don Scott would probably enjoy being around with all these Benchmark races. Would give him a reason to write a new edition of his book. Maybe we record the results with a separate aim of coming up with a mapping of benchmark races to race ratings? The Australia Day Cup is a listed race over 2400m to be run at Warwick Farm on (surprisingly) Jan 26th. If The Verminator and a few of the others go around maybe we will get a handle.

Lads,

I like this - well done.   

What I think is very important if you are serious in continuing this table is that at times you need to go back and adjust the ratings of a race.  For instance, you have rated the Metrop on par with the Caulfield Cup.

IMO, the metrop should have been correctly rated as a listed race.

Keep up the good work.

Fine work PP.

My gut feeling is that this years CC needs to be downgraded somewhat. I'm not sure if the rain blew the margins out but I don't think that form was franked too well later on and too have 3 of the top 7 spots given to that race seems too many.

Also think the Xmas Cup needs a downgrading given the number Rock Kingdom has supposedly posted.

Rock Kingdom is a very consistent horse and is constantly carrying good horses weights.

Australia Day Cup at Warwick Farm Wednesday - Listed Race

Strike One 58 kg

Rated 63 kg in the Summer Cup.

Rated 65.5 kg in 3200m Stayers Cup win last year.
Rated 64.5 kg in the Winter Cup

Expected Rating 64.5 kg


Bid Spotter 55.5 kg

Nice run last start. Looks to be approaching peak form. Hasn't won since Oct 2009 but only 7 starts since then and only 1 over a staying distance.

Last start rated 60.5 kg in the Underwood Cup (2000m)
Tatts Cup win 2009 rated 63.5

Expected rating 63.5 kg


Bakup 53.5 kg

Ex NZder. Last won in NZ in Feb 2010 in a race called the St Leger trial. Placed at G3 over 2500m on Nov 6 in NZ. If this was an Aus race, he would have rated 64.5 kg.

Last start rated 55 kg in the Underwood Cup.

Expected rating 64.5 kg


Lang 53 kg

Old timer who can put in a good run now and then.

Rated less than 50 kg in the Underwood Cup last start
Rated 59 kg in the Summer cup

Expected Rating 59 kg


Warringah 53 kg

Returned from Qld with a poor 5 length 5th in a BM 80 race last start.
3 starts back, was beaten 3.5 L (3.5 kg) by Spechenka, but gave him 2.5 kg which comes out at 1 kg inferior to that horse.
however, I think Spechenka improved a bit on that run in the Summer Cup - say 2 lengths.

Expected rating 60 kg - derived via Spechenka. 1 kg inferior to Brisbane Spechenka who we rate at 61 kg.


Brom Brom 53 kg

Raced on Saturday. We have rated him on his run behind Femina Fashion two starts back.

Expected rating 58.5 kg


Agent Bauer 53 kg

Now here is a challenge. Races in open company for the first time. 6.5 length winner last start over this distance in a NMW race.
Winner of 4 of past 5. Races on the pace.

Impossible to rate. If last start was a 58 kg race, he rates 60 kg, but the margin suggests a smart horse.

Expected Rating 60 kg


Mr Latar 53 kg

Another restricted performer. If the BM 80 race 2 starts back was a 58 kg race, then he has rated 55 kg

Expected rating 55 kg


Halfwaytolondon 53 kg

If a BM80 = 58 kg (guesstimate), then he has rated 55 kg two starts back. Last start was a bit below that, and was in stewards report.

Expected rating 55 kg


Tide 53 kg

Beaten 6.5 lengths by Agent Bauer last start and meets him 2 kg worse. 53 kg based on last start.

Expected rating 53 kg



Pace

Agent Bauer to lead Halfwaytolondon without pressure. Warringah in the mix near the front. No horses disadvantaged.

Adjustments

Bakup 64.5 kg - this was based on NZ form. Will penalize 4 kg based on poor Underwood Cup run and doubts about NZ from strength.
Agent Bauer 60 kg. Form suggests he is an 8.5 kg better horse than Tide who we rated at 53 kg. This infers a 61.5 kg. We will add 2kg because he appears on the up.


Expected Ratings

Strike One 64.5 kg
Bid Spotter 63.5 kg
Bakup 60.5 kg
Lang 59 kg
Warringah 60 kg
Brom Brom 58.5 kg
Agent Bauer 62 kg
Mr Latar 55 kg
Halfwaytolondon 55 kg
Tide 53 kg

Normalized Ordered Ratings

Agent Bauer 62 kg
Bid Spotter 61 kg
Bakup 60 kg
Warringah 60 kg
Strike One 59.5 kg
Lang 59 kg
Brom Brom 58.5 kg
Mr Latar 55 kg
Halfwaytolondon 55 kg
Tide 53 kg

Add 1 kilo to these figures and you have the expected outcome.