Racehorse TALK

Mercs2,
I've started creating my own formguide recently (quaddie legs in BR/SR/MR only at this stage). Also has a score for each horse. If you want a copy of it each week then just PM me.
cheers

Mercs

Horstorque (http://www.horsetorque.com.au) might be of some assistance. I trialed it for awhile a few yrs ago but it didn't suit what I was doing but there seems to be a market for it in some places. 

I don't use speed maps. Others may disagree but I find them fairly misleading. I'd also throw times into the same basket. Times can be very misleading taken on face value. Sure, they are both parts of a big puzzle but that's all they are. The problem with speed maps, (if you've ever looked at a sample) is that they are lucky to be 33% right so over half the time the info is wrong & misleading. 

Also times can change dramatically depending on the conditions of the raceday.
There can be massive differences & if you're only looking at face value times then you can easily be misled.

   
     

Zoro I agree with most of what you say, still the fastest times usually are run by the best horses, most track records are held by open company horses, they are a guide to the big picture, Lang yesterday was credited with a 5 second faster tim over the 2400 than his stablemate Agent Bauer, he also had a 5kg pull in the weights on Strike One for less than 2 lengths defeat over 2400m the cklincher was he was $30, Agent Bauer was $3.50 Strike One was $3.30 didn't mean he would win, did mean he probably had just as good a chance as the two favs though and the price is what made him the bet!

Yes, weight can definitely affect times & agree value has to be factored in.
If you have a $3 shot only marginally better than a $20 shot, then you could easily be swayed to the value. A bit of goodluck/badluck in running can change everything. 
Suprising to some, track records are not normally held by the best horses. Maybe open class horses like you say but not necessarily champions of the turf. A lot of track records depend largely on the conditions.   

I agree but surely there has to be some merit to the philosophy that if a horse runs consistently better times than its opponent then it should beat that horse most times.

Surely there must be some standard measuring scheme. When Dom Beirne says horse A rated a 120 and horse B rated a 116 doesn't time have to be taken into account - and if so, then how is it done ?

I agree that not many records are held by Champions, the main reasons are there aren't many champions to start with, they are not usually in fast run races as no one wants to be the bunny for a Champion, they usually develop into tactical races, where as most open Company races(usually handicaps where there are lightweights) are more evenly run with the odd one being run exceptionally fast run, these are the ones where the fast times(records) are set

I can't say how he would work it out as I don't know what he does.
At a guess I'd say the class of the races would be taken into account before looking at times. Dom probably has his own rating system & using various factors to assess his ratings. It may be his own little secret.

Not sure if you have a computer or not but start by reading my post on 21 Jan 2011 re learning how to program a computer.  If you have a computer and can program, then you are well on the way to doing your own Speed Ratings. Nowdays you can get data files downloaded from any of the TABs to your computer which will give you all the form data for free; but you have to supply your own calcs programs. Anyway jump in, it will make your punting even more enjoyable. I have nothing to sell nor give away.

Secondly Speed ratings are an integral part of race analysis, but only about a third part, however starting  with Speed is a pretty good start and if you look at some of my posts on races I have rated for Speed you will see what use they can be.

Class is by far the most relevant thing in racing, Class will overcome a lot of obstacles that other things won't, once you can class a horse you have a huge head start, don't get carried away with big winning margins if the time isn't there, times are not everything but when a horse wins by a big margin without being pressured but in slow time the usual thing is to think he could have gone a lot faster and to assume that will cost you money more times than not as most who run slow times are slow horses,
It all comes down to price, I keep going back to Agent Bauer he ran slow time and won easy, if he was $20 you take the risk he had a lot left, at $2.90 he was way unders to do what he had never done before,
In short you have to marry all the points for and against up against the odds on offer, if you always take overs you give yourself a chance to win in the long run, if you always take unders you will lose in the long run

So true Jim, I can't for the life of me get my head around Class though and it's probably why punting is so up and down,

Times, you have to be good !

Time and variables are unreliable as a base for comparing horses.

Pace = can vary remarkedly.

A horse my run a fast time in its own class and will not repeat that time against better class horse
even with a lower weight.

Wind resistance is very great in a horse race.

Times at different tracks, not two tracks are identical in shape and layout.
Distance variable times 1280m, 1290m not exact.

Track conditions never exactly the same from day to day, and sometimes different on the same day.

Track surfaces vary, Grass long, Grass short, position in running on the track : near the rail, in middle, the outside.

Programmers and computers continue to be still baffled by times due to so many variables to take into account and be accurate.

Just my thoughts, good luck to punters that use times.

Stormy I said they were part of the big picture, not the whole picture, when you way up everything you assess a realistic price and be conservative ie, if you think a horse should be $4 don't take under $5 if you don't get what you want and it wins don't look back, you have your rules which will support you in the long run, if you are constantly getting it wrong(price) then look at improving your price assessment not your rules

Easy Jim, was not aimed at you, just my thoughts !