Racehorse TALK

We kick off the year with the Group 1 Orr Stakes - 1400 m at Caulfield.  Current track rating - Dead 4

The race is clearly nothing more than a hitout for the Australian Cup just around the corner.

A full field of 16 horses with 10 going around first up from a spell and none of these 10 horses have brilliant first up form and none of them will inject any early speed in the race.

Of the remaining 6 horses, we can expect Danzylum to lead, Doubtfull Jack will look to get on his back with Typhoon Tracy not far away.  We may even see Spacecraft come over from barrier 14 as going back will see him left with no chance at all.  Heart of Dreams will make use of barrier 2, Ortensia will sit off the pace as usual.

Danzylum and Doubtful Jack are not what I call genuine WFA horses but both really get their chance due to the fact they will get an easy first 400m.  The run first up of Typhoon Tracy again left her exposed against the males but I find that she will get the measure of Danzylum and Doubtful Jack. 

Interesting that Oliver has hopped off Spacecraft and gone with Heart of Dreams.  Both horses ran okay first up but I am prepared to risk them both here.

Not completely sure of what to make of Ortensia after she returned from Shatin and that was an excellent run.

This is clearly a race where the best bet will come through some value.  Given we have a track where they can win coming from behind, the value runner for mine Moudre.  Has won carrying weight, albeit in much weaker grade, but does have an excellent record at Caulfield and at this trip.  Both mares are definately hardest to beat.

Top 4

Moudre
Ortensia
Typhoon Tracy
Trusting

Suggested Bet - $10 each way Moudre

Smarts but I watched this horse very very closely last prep, and despite what the stats might say - Caulfield does not suit him. He is a stayer who to have any chance would need to be wound up early, which is gonna be a huge problem as he cant quicken a whole lot at all rounding the home bend at this track.

Cant win, seriously doubt he can run a drum.

Mark,

I understand where ya coming from champion.  Should be a great race.

Rather back Luen Yat Forever or Linton as a roughie.

Mark,

She got the bikkies, big run Heart of Dreams.

It was.

So same exacta as last year, but much smaller margin, I wonder if HOD has improved or TT has dropped off marginally

I mean I say this also because the race was run under a very very similar set of circumstances.. Both second up as per last year.

I reckon they're the dead same, difference - last year good track - this year dead. TT is a couple of lengths better on a good..

I think your comment also about the track is very valid also.

Interesting that Danzylum, Spacecraft and Doubtful Jack never got passed by any swoopers.  So your comment about the track becomes the critical element.

As for TT, I suspect she is slightly less than last year and HOD has always been an excellent performer in that class.  1400m is prolly his best distance when specifically trained for it.

sectionals will be interesting.

Lightning Stakes (WFA) 1000m at Flemington

It is a rather simple analysis here, we only have 2 proven WFA sprinters and they are the No.1 & No.2 sprinters in the country anyway.

Sit back and enjoy the race between Hay List and Black Cavier.

No Bets.

Blue Diamond Stakes - 2yo - 1100m - Caulfield

The babies of the track line up here and Sepoy deserves to be favourite.  This horse has improved and that is the biggest plus you can get when it comes to 2yo racing.  I also watched the videos on his 3 winning runs so far and I have little concerns that he will run out the 1200m.

It is also interesting to note that he has been held up in each of 3 starts sitting off the speed and with clean acceleration has put 2 - 3 lenghts in his rivals.

Of the rest, Hallowell Belle deserved to get much closer to the winner last start and you could probably make a case that if it got the right run at the top of the straight it even wins.

I really can't make a case for the rest although given a few months and some extra distance, potential is there.

However, from barrier 5, Sepoy gets the run of the race and wins.

Bets - Take the Exacta - Sepoy - Hallowell Bell.

Futurity Stakes - WFA - 1400m - Caulfield

Very much looking forward to this race after seeing the run of More Joyous first up in sydney.

The 1400m start at Caulfield is ideal for on pace runners that get away with an easy entry onto the first bend and then it is a gift when it is a leader based track.  So I have done plenty of form on the pace in the first 400m and there is none.

There is only 4 solid WFA performers in this race and they are Whobegotyou, King Mufhasa, Dao Dao and More Joyous.

You can put a pen line through Doubtful Jack, Voile Rouge and Avienus.  Good horses but not here.  Ortensia had every possible last start and stayed on well for third and must be a candidate for first 4 punters.

We're Gonna Rock is unbeaten first up but not in this grade and drawing a line back through the Toorak runs, he meets MJ much worse at the weights.

C'est La Guere always interests me as he is a very talented galloper and should never be underestimated.  King Mufhasa and Dao Dao, I dont think there is much between these 2 horses but I prefer Ortensia to both of them.

Whobegotyou has only won once first up and the rest are all seconds as he continually hits the line in every race he contests.  Truly a horse you wanna own.

But in reality, it does not matter how many times you go over this race, its only 1400m and unless MJ beats herself or Nash sticks her in a pocket, MJ wins.

I expect that Nash will use her natural pace and start giggling if something comes across and leads her early and then he will pop her off the fence and move into the race just like her last run.

Bets: - If they bet $1.80 - you would have to take it.  If all goes to plan, $1.33 will look like an early Xmas present.

Oakleigh Plate - Hdcp - 1100m - Caulfield

A classic sprinting handicap and one of the best Oakleigh Plates fields I have seen.  This will be a high pressure race with a field of 18 and 69 chances.  It goes without saying, what gets the right run, wins.

Trying to find the winner is almost impossible as I toss around the weights, barriers and jockeys.  But here is a few things that I have noticed.

Catapulted is actually not that badly weighted with 58kg and nor is First Command with 57.5 kg. 

Luke Nolan has chosen to ride Avenue and J A Cassidy has gone down to ride Faster Son.

Undeniably drops 5kg on his last run which holds great form after beating Typhoon Tracy and Ortensia.

Set For Fame has won 3 from 4 runs first start.

I do however think the winner comes from these 6 runners.

Bets:  Look wide and I will be taking a first 4 as follows

9 x 1, 2, 7, 11 & 16 x 1, 2, 7, 11 & 16 x Field  -  10% = $30
Field x 9 x 1, 2, 7, 11 & 16 x 1, 2, 7, 11  -  10% = $30

Chipping Norton Stakes - WFA - 1600m - Warwick Farm

The first Group 1 in syd for the year as we move into the Autumn Carnival and as always, this race is stepping stone for most runners as they head to the Doncaster and the BMW.

Scanning the field when acceptance came out it was evident that this race does not have much, if any current WFA depth.  A quality field nevertheless.  I have found it easy to eliminate a few runners that I feel cant finish in the first 4.  They are:-

Descarado, Zavite, Illustrious Blue, Maluckyday, Vision and Power, Lorne Dancer & Sacred Choice.  Happy to draw a line thru these.  Theseo is clearly is best performed WFA runner but has a first up record of 8 starts for 1 win and 1 third.  Hardly flattering.  There is 2 horses that interest me and should they salute will not surprise me - Luen Yat Forever & Once Were Wild.

But no doubt the form runners are Danleigh, Centennial Park, and Melito but none of them are proven at a mile.  This poses the question of how fast will they go and will it be a genuine test.  I think not.

Theseo will cross from out wide and lead, Melito will get on his back unless something punches up inside trying to hold a forward position.  Both horses never pull and wont see much action til the 600m which is where the sit sprint will start.

I cant get excited about anything however Luen Yat Forever has been beaten less that a length both times in his last 2 runs over a mile.  Once inthe G1 Emirates and the other in the G1 Toorak.

He is my tip each way - $13 and $3.70 fixed price at the moment.

Australian Guineas - 3yo SW - 1600m - Flemington

Plenty of form done here trying to assess some critical things.  Which of these up and comers are looking for the mile, are the proven milers like Mr Chard going well this time in, how does the form of Southern Speed compare, how good is the NZ form and where does Playing God sit considering has beaten home Trusting at WFA.

I wont be keeping you up all night with the answer cos it is really a dogs breakfast.

However, I will not sit on the fence as winning WFA form should stand up in this race, barrier 3, terrific trainer and B Prebble on top.  You can get $5 each way and it looks a bet to nothing each way.

 

I cant get excited about anything however Luen Yat Forever has been beaten less that a length both times in his last 2 runs over a mile.  Once inthe G1 Emirates and the other in the G1 Toorak.

He is my tip each way - $13 and $3.70 fixed price at the moment.

He's also my tip. I like the fact he is finally back running the same direction they do  in Macau which hopefully should help.