Racehorse TALK

We might be both excited if it salutes.  But what I thought was even more of a pointer is the trainer.

Newmarket Handicap - WFA - 1200m - Flemington

Firstly, Hay List is out for those who are not yet aware.

Easy to stand up when assessing this race and just say Black Cavier wins.  This may be prove to be the case, but for mine, it is the first race she has contested where my advice is to clearly keep your money in your pocket.

I don't believe in taking $1.33 and you concede weight to good horses for the first time in your career.  There is 4 horses in this race that are chances outside of her in Eagle Falls, Response, Hinchinbrook and Beaded.  They are listed in order of preference.

I have a healthy respect for each of these horses and they all go well this track and distance.  I can't make a case for any of the others even though Star Witness and Grand Duels will have supporters.  Personally, they are not going well enough for mine.

To sum it up, if they don't Black Cavier in this race, they never will.

As for a bet, finding it hard to see value except if the fav fails.  I like a bet to nothing at times and for $6, I will box these 4 for 25%.  But I do have BC anchored in my Star Stable.

Turnpoint Guineas - 3yo SW - 1600m - Warwick Farm

Early scratching in this race and Masquerader come out.  Although this field has plenty of talent, have this as a race in two.  It also poses as a very interesting form guide for the Derby and Oaks and I expect this to prove an excellent form race for the carnival.

Going over the videos during the week it just stood out that Skilled has improved and his run last start was full of merit and he looks a very solid each way prospect.  I even expect him to lead and McEvoy will try and dictate terms.

Top Drop is only other runner that goes forward from a leader perspective unless they change tactics on something else.  We might see Pressday push forward and he is the upset in the race.

My clear top pick is Ilovethiscity.  He had them covered at the 600m marker last start and I can't see that changing this week.  Avdulla has it all to do and I hope the young fellow does not get outfoxed.  Fixed priced has Ilovethiscity at $2.35 and although it aint a huge price, I still see that as overs.

As for bets, rather confident, have a $100 on the nose.

Australian Cup - WFA - 2000m - Flemington

One of my favourite races on the calender as we see the best performed horses from the Spring return and we get the appetite damp for this Spring.  A race though that tests the punter because you have assess improvement as horses usally try and win this 3rd up.

How great is it to see a 3yo contest the race in Playing God and he does look an exciting horse.  He may not win this race, but it will be a good reference to next years Cox Plate.  Maybe even this years.

The form guide shows a notable gear change in  that Linton will wear blinkers.  Expect him to run well.  He looked a big chance on the corner last start and Ihave to confess I thought he star gazed.  The blinkers should fix that.

Shocking is a horse that goes much better at Flemington and that is no secret.  I was also not disappoionted in his run last start as it ended 200m from home, he will strip much fitter.

Craig Williams continues to throw the leg over Moudre and he has as many wraps on this horse as I.  Really impressed with his final 400m at both runs in and I expect him to in the placings.  If you are an each way punter, he is your safe option.  I also would not be surprised if he started fav.

My top pick in the race is Precedence.  His run last start when staying on the fence was a classic JB Cummings warm up to a group race at Flemington.  He also goes much better at Flemington and you wont see the jockey take him via the rails as Bart is adamant, this horse needs room.  The barrier does not concern me as we will see decent early speed and we will slot in nicely just off the pace.

Heart of Dreams makes up one of two horses I found for sat that will start fav and I don't like at all.  I will be surprised if he runs a hole.  Of the rest, Cedarberg is my value runner for the multiples as he will get a good cart along on the pace or could even find and easy lead.

If C'est La Guerre wins I will have a wry smile on my face and Alcopop may have won last start, but this is back in top company and he is yet to prove he is again up to this grade.

Bets:  Happy to box my top 4 in the tri and the first 4 for something small or even add in Cedarberg for some extra spice.  The value being that the fav I expect will miss out.

Don't forget to have a redback or 2 on Precedence and even go each way if that suits your betting.

Coolmore Classic - F&M Quality - 1500m - Rosehill

What a fabulous line up of Fillies and Mares and it has to be said, It's harder to pick than a broken nose".  .

No doubt in my mind that Melito deserves her weight and 59.5 kg becomes a huge task.  But not impossible.  Unfortunately, I still can't narrow the field down under 8 chances and some will even question that.

Best I can be certain with is Montana Flyer crosses and leads Miss Gai Flyer and the blinkers added to More Strawberries will get her across also.  Another puzzle is guessing the instructions of Gai and how does the first 600m pan out.  Graceful Anna and Jersey Lily get the gun runs off the speed while Warpath and Palacio De Crystal will get good runs back in  the field.

As I said plenty of chances and the best run / ride combo wins these races.  I think it will come from these 4 horse and More Strawberries.

As for the punt - I will be boxing all 5 in the multis.

Ranvet Stakes - WFA - 2000m - Rosehill

You can't have a Ranvet Stakes without Gai saddling up the no.1.  Only difference this year is it aint Theseo.  Nonetheless, she still has a good animal in Descarado.

I can't remember the last time we had a large Ranvet field and its always a tactical battle more than a testing 2000m.  The Chipping Norton form will stand up and the best 2 runs in that race by a clear margin were Sacred Choice and Maluckyday. 

No doubt the kiwi - Keep the Peace - will have supporters and given this isn't a field of depth, holds some weight.  Dismissing Zavite, Hawk Island and Illustrius Blue.

You only had to see the last 400m from the Chipping Norton to see why Maluckyday is fav and I am rather sure he has Descarado's measure.  But I am not sure about Sacred Choice and she is my top pick.  This mare has excellent form in 1600m race and above and is the fit horse.

Currently $9 on fixed odds and a chance I will get better 2morrow and excellent value for mine.  Will be backing her to win sumthin.

Gday,

The track downgrade changed a few things so I hope as good punters adjustments were made.

Cheers

Thesmartman

No previews for a while, send me a PM if you wanna chat, will get back to you.

Any opinions on SA Oaks

Mate of mine has a BIG opinion of 'Jeter'

I will be back in 2 weeks.

Sydney Cup

I will be officially back next week but as I sit relaxed at the moment here is a very brief assessment of the Sydney Cup.

The race as usual lacks depth and is full of restricted grade handicappers and the race is more appropriately an Open Handicap.  But anyway, that is beside the point and for me to adjust my assessment.

There is however a few horses going okay and we may see some pace in this early as Once Were Wild will need to cross from 17.

The horse i like is Count Encosta and the danger is C'Est Le Guerre.  I gave the latter a mention a few weeks ago but the nod really goes to Count Encosta.  Those who do not have good memories will have forgotten this horse was a big chance and in fact my top pick to win the Derby this time last year.

Been waiting for him to get to a staying distance and his run last start was enormous.

All I got time for so best of luck.

Thesmartman