Racehorse TALK

Warwick Farm 05/03/11 Preview – Tough Day Out

It is good to see Group 1 racing back at Warwick Farm.

For too long the south-western suburbs of Sydney has been a forgotten commodity when it comes to horse racing.

Hopefully they get good crowds at Warwick Farm for the two Saturdays of Group 1 action.

Just Horse Racing writer Andrew Hawkins has gone through the fields and has made his selections for today’s meeting.

RACE 1 – The Clarry Conners Plate (1100m)

This is the former Kindergarten Stakes – the Kindergarten is now run on Derby Day. It’s a good name for the race, given the record that Clarry Conners has with juveniles. To be honest, it is a bit disappointing that the topweight Defiant Dame has been scratched. She was absolutely dominant in the Gimcrack Stakes and she would have been a good yardstick. Foxwedge and Anise are currently favourites, but the form out of Foxwedge’s win has been pretty bad (his owners, the Batemans, already have Satin Shoes qualified for the Slipper and she is probably the better type). Anise was good beating Saramenha, who had previously won her last couple of starts by big margins. Trainer Peter Snowden suggested that she would be his Slipper horse. Irish Times was impressive in midweek company last start, looks like he’ll appreciate further in time but it would be fitting if Clarry Conners won his own race. The first starters add a little bit of interest, with Cool Maverick getting the nod over Dorothy’s Dream on trial form.

3 – Irish Times
6 – Anise
2 – Foxwedge
4 – Cool Maverick

RACE 2 – Liverpool Leader Handicap (1600m)

Tough little Benchmark 84 race. The favourite is currently Syreon, and quite rightly – his first up record is fantastic. He’s a bit of a query first up at 1600m, but he’s had three trials to prepare him for it with two very nice trial wins under his belt. I couldn’t wait to see New Day Rising at 1600m as a two year old, but he didn’t get there. He needs to improve markedly, but I think that a good track will very much help. Prior Baron is the form horse, with two city placings in similar company before a last start dominant victory in the Walcha Cup. Should be competitive again. I think Bandar has shown this preparation that around 1600m is his best distance and his last start was good. He’s too hard to catch to have him on top, but should go well. Lockmar’s also a chance, but he’s way too inconsistent for me to include.

1 – Syreon
3 – New Day Rising
5 – Prior Baron
7 – Bandar

RACE 3 – Alconex Fire Handicap (2200m)

I can’t believe the price they’ve put up about Mr Latar. Sure, he’s coming down 600m in distance, but his run at this track in the Listed Australia Day Cup (2400m) was fantastic. Lang is always competitive in those sorts of races and Bid Spotter, who nosed out Mr Latar, went on to win the Hobart Cup. If he was back in this race, he’d be close to favourite. Don’t think he quite ran the 2800m out last time. If he reproduces his Australia Day Cup run, he goes very close. Our Cannavaro gets in well after Tim Bell’s claim, and although this is his first time up to 2200m, I reckon he’ll run the trip. He’ll be in the finish. The Warrior Woman has always looked a promising stayer and while her last run was pretty poor, I reckon she can improve up to 2200m. I don’t know about the favourite King Lionheart at 2200m and he’s drawn terribly but he goes in purely for the fact that he has some very nice form behind him. Also give chances to Brazen Babe, who’s produced some strong figures but is a query at 2200m, and All Black Miss, who finished fourth over this track and distance two starts back behind last Saturday’s staying quinella Telesmon and Well Handled.

5 – Mr Latar
1 – Our Cannavaro
4 – The Warrior Woman
3 – King Lionheart

RACE 4 – TAB Number 1 Club Handicap

Are my eyes deceiving me? Is Title really favourite? Seriously? He meets some quality sprinters here and he is yet to place first up. Leave me out. They are going to run hard here, with Zaratone and McClintock setting the speed. Sets it up for something to come from behind, and at her home track, I’ll be on Dorf Command. Ran 7th, beaten 4.3L in the Triscay last year before coming with a scorching run to win this race. This year, she ran 8th in the Triscay, beaten 3.2L. She has from around some of the best sprinters in Australia, and she’s found her perfect race here. Latin News is also capable of figuring in the finish. I don’t know whether he had a rushed campaign after his Stradbroke Handicap failure, but he was awful in three runs in Melbourne in the spring. However, a recent trial win seemed to indicate that he was back to his best. And on his best, he’d be in the finish. I reckon the Dorf Command-Latin News quinella is almost the bet of the day. McClintock is a bold front runner who just seemed to be below his best in the spring. I think the 1100m is short of his best. Last autumn he did finish third in the Expressway first up, just behind Rangirangdoo and Dao Dao, and in front of Centennial Park and Danleigh. Only reason I can’t have him to win is because I can see the in form Zaratone taking him on all the way. I think there’s some value around Atomic Force. I reckon he struggles to run a strong 1200m, but here at 1100m suits him perfectly. The hot tempo will suit him perfectly and he’s one that must be included in multiples.

5 – Dorf Command
2 – Latin News
1 – McClintock
8 – Atomic Force

RACE 5 – Group 2 Patinack Farm Surround Stakes (1400m)

Strong race for the three year old fillies. More Strawberries is now an odds on favourite. Never thought I’d agree with that against Parables over 1400m but there is absolutely no speed in the race outside of More Strawberries. She should get her own way in front, and even if there is a little bit of pressure, it will only be at the detriment of their own chances. She really should win, and I’m tipping her. But I’m a big believer of the “odds on, look on” mantra. Parables might race closer in the run, I think she may be the best horse in the race, definitely at 1400m, but the lack of speed just won’t help her whatsoever. Watch out in the Coolmore Classic next start, where there’s a big field. Potions is a very interesting runner, should improve over distance but has run some cracking races in the Coolmore Stud Stakes and was a good run in the Light Fingers. Will relish the 1400m. Red Tracer should get the nice run behind More Strawberries but the 1400m is a bit of a query. Should handle it, but first time at the trip, I think More Strawberries will have the advantage. Kim Heaven’s also a place chance, but she has Storm Queen Stakes written all over her.

1 – More Strawberries
2 – Parables
9 – Potions
3 – Red Tracer

RACE 6 – Group 1 ATC Chipping Norton Stakes (1600m)

Click here to read an extensive runner by runner preview of the Chipping Norton Stakes.

9 – Luen Yat Forever
11 – Melito
7 – Maluckyday
1 – Theseo

RACE 7 – Group 3 Liverpool City Cup (1300m)

Big field equals one hell of a tough race. Favourite Triple Elegance’s first crack at stakes company has been a long time coming, but he meets some genuine Group sprinters here. Nevertheless, I’m going for one to beat him. Ahdashim is always around the mark in these sorts of races, and he’s tough and consistent. He should get a good run from barrier 4, and I think he can win. I know News Alert almost died after the Doomben 10000, but if he produces an effort that is 75% as good he’ll go very close to winning. Triple Elegance should go close, just don’t know if he deserves to be favourite. I think the first up run of Pureness was quite good and he could be competitive with the big field here. Other winning chances are Graceful Anna, Pinwheel and No Evidence Needed.

5 – Ahdashim
2 – News Alert
11 – Triple Elegance
15 – Pureness

RACE 8 – Listed Illes Racing Wiggle Quality (1400m)

Final race on the card, and with the top two mares running in the previous race, it makes it very open. Kiss From A Rose should go well, but is she a $2.10 shot? Don’t think so personally. I’m going for complete value with my top two selections, hoping one of them can blouse the favourite. Hurtle Myrtle is a top class mare on her day. She ran More Joyous to a head over this track and distance, which is no mean feat. May possibly prefer a wet track, but given that her last run would have blown out some of the cobwebs, I think she’s excellent each way value at 25-1. I don’t know how many mares in this race could measure up in a Cox Plate, so I think back in class, Avienus may have some chance. At every prep, she’s improved massively third up. The trip up from Melbourne (and the change in scenery) could also spark some form. It’s not concrete, but she’s classy on her day. Well worth a ticket at 20-1. Kiss From A Rose has to go into selections somewhere, because she obviously is extremely talented. Jersey Lily’s last run was fantastic and if she produces that here she can win. Other winning chances are Happy Hippy, Girl Hussler and perhaps Pagan Princess if she finds her best. Tough race.

5 – Hurtle Myrtle
3 – Avienus
9 – Kiss From A Rose
4 – Jersey Lily

Best Bet – R4 Dorf Command/Latin News quinella
Next Best – R2 No.1 Syreon
Best Value – R6 No.9 Luen Yat Forever

Written by Andrew Hawkins