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2012-May-25, 05:19 PM

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Author Topic: Saturday 12 March Analysis From Racecapper  (Read 495 times)
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racecapper
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Original Post 2011-Mar-10, 10:04 PM

Flemington R3 - 12.40pm 1400m G2 2yo $300K 
Name Price Comment
No3 Helmet 1.90 2++??, winner 2 from 2 this prep in Sydney both times by good margins, form refs out of last start win suggsts potential high class Group horse on the make, could prove well above this grade, 1400m trip minor query, speed pedigree.
No6 Running Tall 7.20 0+??, nice closing pars 1st up at Caulfield over 1100m 2 starts ago 2nd to Sepoy, strong on line suggesting step to this trip suits, unexposed, capable of figuring.
No1 Masthead 8.00 0+??, chased home Sepoy when 3rd in the Blue Diamond last start, made strong headway from off the pace suggesting scope for more over this trip, despite being beat by Sepoy last start queries over the form ref exist to a minor degree as may have been fluked and flattered by the pace scenario that day.
No5 Rockshaft 9.40 0??, looked good in Adelaide last start winning the G3 Marsh Breeders Stakes, form refs questionable but still further scope and must be respected.



Warwick Farm R1 - 12.55pm 1600m C5 $70K 
Name Price Comment
No3 New Day Rising 3.55 1-2.5++??, very good merit associated to last start win 2nd up over this track and distance, slid forward to make all and kept finding, scope for minor further improvement 3rd up, well placed.
No7 Roadtrain 4.10 3+?, last start finished a good 4th btn 1.3l in the D'urban Stakes at Caulfield over 1400m vs 3yos, form refs out of that read well compared to what it takes on here, lightly raced with good scope for more, query Sydney way but trainer adept at bringing horses from Melbourne to Sydney and placing them astutely to get the cash.
No9 Shamardashing 5.40 1-2++??, bred for this sort of trip and well suited here 2nd up after doing its best work on the line over 1400m behind Our Billy Blue last start, 2 preps ago produced a good 2.5l 5th to Tickets at G2 level, good form ref at the weights back to New Day Rising, lightly raced, plenty of scope, nice blend of pedigree for this trip by Shamardal out of hte WA Oaks & Derby winner Beaux Art.
No5 Color Purple 10.80 0-1.5?, end of last prep was a high merit wide margin winner at Hawkesbury over this trip defeating voltabolta, form refs since franked back vs similar to what it takes on here, last start 2nd confirmed is now back at that level, solid claims
No4 Syreon 12.20 0-1?, 2nd up now fitter on the back of chasing home New Day rising 1st up, 7yo is the big query, cant see much further scope but capable this prize tag level.
No6 Bandar 19.60 0?, chased home New Day Rising last start 2nd btn 0.8l, yet to win 5 starts this prep, no further scope, outside claims



Flemington R4 - 1.15pm 1600m G2 3yoSW $250K 
Name Price Comment
No1 Whobegotyou 3.60 2-3.5+?, winner 4 of 5 over this distance, 1st up produced big closing pars chasing home More joyous when 0.8l 2nd in the G1 Futurity over 1400m at Caulfield, Dao Dao 3rd and King Mufhasa 4th add good depth to the form, big scope for further improvement 2nd up here over a more suitable trip.
No9 I'm Imposing 4.90 0-1++??, lightly raced import from the Lloyd Williams yard, won 1st Australian start over 2000m on this track, big margins back through the field and looked stakes class as form out of the race suggests, broke its maiden in the Uk over 8f (1600m, same trip as this) and form out of that madien win stands right up on a line back to The Minever Rose and Holberg, one line of 1st up win last prep gives it a good pull over whobegotyou at the weights (Rundle 5th), may surprise at good odds.
No5 Dao Dao 5.40 0-1.5?, showed it has returned near the top of its game when 3rd to More Joyous in the Futurity 1st up, end of last prep blowsed by Wall Street in the G1 Emirates over this track and distance, minor scope for more 2nd up, hard to see it turning the tables on Whobegotyou though.
No8 Spacecraft 5.80 0-1+??, minor concern stepping back to sharper 1600m on the back of finishing 3rd to Heart Of Dreams over 1800m in G2 company, both that and run prior suggests has solid claims here, gets good weight relief as the unexposed performer with only 54kg.
No2 Doubtful Jack 13.50 0??, Listed winner in Tasmania 1st up followed by a decent merit 3.4l 5th to Typhoon Tracy in the G1 CF Orr, wide margin wins have all been on wet tracks, limited scope and form below par, warrants consideration if right.



Warwick Farm R2 - 1.35pm 1200m Lstd 3yo $100K 
Name Price Comment
No4 Halekulani 3.10 2-3++?, crated a big impression last prep defeating Mac Chois by 2l on debut, btn only 1.3l and 1.5l by Decision Time next 2 starts in Group company, won 1st up last start confirming has come back in good order, scope for more, ticks plenty of boxes.
No6 Pimpala Secret 4.60 2++??, wide margin 6.5l trial winner in prep for return at Rosehill over 900m, if that form holds up (likely) then it rates clearly above the level required to win in this minor stakes class.
No1 Celts 7.20 2-3+?, 2nd up on the back of getting run over the top of by Decision Time last start, natural scope for further improvement 2nd up, last prep won at Listed level 2nd up over this trip defeating Buffering, strong form ref, 1st up prep prior finished 3rd to Willow Creek 9More Strawberries 2nd) in the Magic Night Stakes G2 as a 2yo.
No2 Mac Chois 9.30 1-2++??, won 1st up vs weaker but has more scope going on form from last prep, blowsed in a trial bu Hinchinbrook prior to debut (4l margin 3rd), that franked by 2nd to Sleepers in a strong $70K race end of last prep at Caulfield.
No5 La Remlap 15.50 0-1+??, 2nd up on the back of finishing 2nd to Halekulani last start when 1st up, scope for more, up to the advertised class.
No3 Parriwi 18.80 0-0.5?, clse up 3rd to Decision Time last start suggests she has reached her peak level, may find a few above it, claims this grade all the same.



Warwick Farm R3 - 2.15pm 1200m G3 2yoc&g $125K 
Name Price Comment
No10 Boys On Tour 4.20 0-2+??, clearly behind Delago's Lad and Sepoy at first 2 career starts but prior won a trial by 5.5l at Randwick over 850m in prep for debut, form out of that trial win suggests it may well be above average, stable has a knack of landing feature race wins at big prices.
No5 Uate 4.90 0-2??, winner 2 from 2 in short career inc last start by 3l at Randwick on the Inner track over 1150m, widening margin on the line, more scope stepping to 1200m here.
No1 Hot Snitzel 7.50 0+?, debut winner by 2.5l last prep in a field of 5 over 1100m at Rosehill, form behind Pane In The Glass next start is standing up, speed pedigree, has claims at this level.
No7 Dream Choice 9.60 0+??, very well bred by Redoute's Choice out of the Covetous mare Patou who is the dam of Golden Slipper winner Polar Success, forget 1st up run last start, better than that, 1st prep was placed behind Saramenha and then Foxwedge, has to be given claims here on those form refs, winkers go on 1st time.
No8 Danger Lurks 9.60 0+??, forget 1st up run last start down the track behind Satin Shoes, prior was placed twice on end last prep behind Karuta Queen, on a repeat has claims here.



Flemington R6 - 2.35pm 1200m G1 $1000K 
Name Price Comment
No1 Black Caviar 2.25 3-5+?, winner 9 from 9, toyed with them 1st up winning by 3.3l hard held in the Lightning G1, best Australian sprinting prospect we have seen in 15-20 years.
No11 Crystal Lily 5.40 0-0.5+??, Golden Slipper winner last season and btn 5.7l by Black Caviar 1st up, best form suggests slightly above G1 if card falls it way and if it can hit that level again, last chance.
No5 Star Witness 9.00 0.5-1?, winner over this track and distance 2nd up last prep in the G1 Coolmore vs 3yos then franked that 2nd to Black Caviar btn 4l in the G1 Patinack Farm Classic, high class sprinter on his day.
No12 Hinchinbrook 10.00 m0.5-0??, 2nd start for the Peter Moody yard on the back of finishing 1.4l 3rd to Eagle Falls, not everything went its way that day and has good scope for more here.
No6 Beaded 18.50 m0.5-0+??, form refs out of 1st up win in G3 company give it a strong line back to Eagle Falls, further scope and capable of a new peak here 2nd up, outside claims.
No2 Hay List 30.00 0-1?, doing best work on the line 1st up behind Black Caviar last start 2nd btn 3.3l in the Lightning, high class sprinter but not in the class of Black Caviar
No3 Eagle Falls 40.00 m0.5-0?, last start winner of the Oakliegh Plate G1, racing style suits this straight 6f trip, scope for further minor improvement.



Flemington R7 - 3.20pm 2000m G1 $1000K 
Name Price Comment
No10 Linton 6.00 1-2.5??, out of form both starts this prep but yard pushes on to this high level 3rd up and blinkers go on 1st time, 3rd up and 4th up efforts last prep winning the G3 Herbert Power then running 2nd in the G2 Lexus are both good form refs for this, lightly tried stayer and if blinkers do the required trick he may prove hard to run down in deep stretch at a price. *Early fixed odds 7.75
No14 Laristan 7.20 0-1+??, former French stayer who won 4 from 7 in France before shipping to Aus, by Sinndar (sire of Our Aqaleem who created a big impression last season and Youmzain) out of a Listed winning Linamix mare, 3rd Aus start 2nd up last time won impressively over track and distance by 2.5l defeating Mourayan (negative weight turn around) and other good form horses further back suggesting very good depth to the win despite being only a $70K Open handicap, every chance of figuring for the major purse here. *Early fixed odds 41.00 / 10.50
No5 Precedence 8.30 0-1+??, 3rd up now with good scope for further improvement on the back of running 2nd to Heart Of Dreams, 7l winner 3rd up this track and distance 2 preps ago, Cummings trained, sure to hit a new peak here. *Early fixed odds 7.50
No1 Shocking 9.20 0-1, has not won in last 7 starts but 3rd up here ready to hit peak this prep, 4th up last prep blowsed by Zipping in the G1 Turnbull Stakes over this track and distance, strong form refs out of race, Melbourne Cup winner 2009. Early fixed odds 8.00
No3 Heart Of Dreams 11.20 0-0.5?, hit peak form at Caulfield last start over 1800m when employing new pace tactics, made all and kept finding, under same tactics will find it hard to hold that level, no further scope but up to this level. *Early fixed odds 4.00, lay?
No7 Mourayan 11.20 0+?, 2nd up last start chased home another import Laristan over this track and distance 2nd btn 2.5l, form refs out of that race suggests may be nearing peak, meets Laristan much better at the weights here, Irish form includes a close 2nd to champion Sea The Stars and close 3rds to Fame And Glory and Profound Beauty, new Australian peak here likely. *Early fixed odds 101.00
No8 Alcopop 15.00 0-0.5+??, mixes form, Listed win over 1600m last start suggests may be getting back to old form, blew away Shocking 2 preps ago and last prep finished a good merit 2nd to So You Think over this trip at Caulfield in the Yalumba Stakes, queries over current form but has claims if it improves again off that Lstd win which is likely. *Early fixed odds 18.00
No11 Cedarburg 17.00 m0.5-0?, defeated the very hot King Diamond 2 starts back convincingly then nosed out by Guyno last start in the Mornington Cup, that suggests capable of level reached last prep close 2nd to Linton in the Herbert Power G2. *Early fixed odds 23.00
No6 Ginga Dude 18.00 m0.5-0?, tough NZ stayer that hit new peaks here last prep inc a high merit 5l 3rd to So You Think, blew start 1st up and still finished only 3.1l behind Heart Of Dreams, big scope 2nd up for more, well placed, outside claims. *Early fixed odds 20.00
No9 Moudre 20.00+ potential lay, installed 2nd fav in early fixed odds markets at 6.50 *Early fixed odds 6.50, lay?
No15 Playing God 20.00+ potential lay, installed 6th fav in early fixed odds markets at 8.50 *Early fixed odds 8.50, lay?



Warwick Farm R6 - 4.25pm 1600m G1 3yoSW $500K 
Name Price Comment
No1 Ilovethiscity 3.00 1-2?, 3rd up on the back of winning the G2 Hobartville impressively last start over 1400m, scope for further improvement, looks a high class miler on the make, strong on line last start, 1600m no problems.
No3 Retrieve 4.00 0-1+?, 1st up last start finished a high merit 2nd to Ilovethiscity, more scope for improvement from fitness over that one and has to be given serious respect here stepping up to 1600m.
No5 Masquerader 7.20 0??, 3rd up ready to hit a new peak now, similar closing pars to Retrieve behind Ilovethiscity last start, with luck can figure
No9 Absolutelyawesome 10.50 m1+??, G Boss has been very outspoken of his thoughts on this mount, was his No1 pick for the Australian Guineas last week (emergency, didnt get a start), big closing pars last time btn 2.6l by Bullbars 1st, copped plenty of intereference, big scope for more here 2nd up with unchequered passage.
No11 Light Brigade 11.50 ???, 3rd up ready for new peak now, has to be given outside claims on the basis of a likely soft lead, good merit last start behind Ilovethiscity
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chuggers
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2011-Mar-10, 10:15 PM

You do a fantastic job racecapper---very much appreciated.

beer
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racecapper
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2011-Mar-11, 02:58 AM

attached updated to now 11 races in total for saturday, see pdf attachment, more to be added, another update late friday night

* saturday12march.pdf (71.85 KB - downloaded 72 times.)
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racecapper
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2011-Mar-11, 08:01 PM

attached saturday updated to now 14 races, more to come

* saturday12marchupdate2053pm.pdf (90.57 KB - downloaded 77 times.)
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racecapper
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2011-Mar-12, 03:03 AM

attached updated for saturday, 20 races now detailed from Warwick Farm, Flemington, Kembla Grange and Echuca.

* saturday12marchupdate402am.pdf (116.35 KB - downloaded 48 times.)
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racecapper
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2011-Mar-12, 09:36 AM

final update, all 20 races adjusted with scratchings removed

* saturday12marchfinalupdate.pdf (106.43 KB - downloaded 56 times.)
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