Workforce and So You Think promise a fascinating rivalry this season
PICTURE: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)
Middle distance rivalry promises battle royal
By Sam Walker 1:28PM 30 MAY 2011
WORLD CLASS:an analysis of the international scene according to Racing Post Ratings
WORKFORCE impressed
in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes on Thursday, but he needed to, since he
could be the only horse standing in the way of a So You Think whitewash.
Australia has long held sway in the global sprint division, but the
same had also been true of Europe in the middle-distance division –
until So You Think came along.
The European dominance over 1m4f isevident year in year out, with
horses unable to make the frame in their championship races consistently
able to bag top-level prizes overseas.
In the last 12 months Mastery (Hong Kong), Redwood (Canada), Joshua
Tree (Canada), Mr Medici (Hong Kong), Rewilding (Dubai), Mighty High
(Hong Kong) and Dangerous Midge (US) have all won Group 1s abroad. There
was also Snow Fairy (over 1m3f) in Japan, although she did win at
championship level in Europe.
This dominance is down in a large part to the major breeding
operations keeping a tight hold on their strong dam lines, which
consistently throw up the world's greatest middle-distance runners.
But it is also down to the racing culture in Europe, where 1m4f races
carry a higher level of prestige than in the rest of the world.
So You Think
bids to strike right at the heart of this established hierarchy,
defeating the Europeans on their turf at the distance they have long
proved dominant.
It is a typical underdog story, but with a little twist: he is not an underdog.
He has already run to a similar level to Workforce and is yet to be
asked a serious question. But can he really be expected to have it easy
in 2011?
Well, unless one of his stablemates (Await The Dawn or St Nicholas
Abbey) improves significantly, it appears that there is only one horse
whocan stop him. Workforce.
Next best on RPRs behind the big two is Sarafina, but with more
improvement expected from So You Think and Workforce they look set to
have a duopoly over the major middle-distance prizes.
While never-off-the-bridle So You Think could yet be anything, it
would be folly to suggest Workforce is exposed, as he hails from a yard
that excels at getting horses to improve out of all recognition from
three to four.
Harbinger improved 19lb on RPRs from three to four, Mountain High 15lb, Notnowcato 18lb and Spanish Moon 16lb.
As a Derby-Arc winner, Workforce is the best three-year-old Sir
Michael Stoute has ever kept in training at four, and if you factor in
the normal improvement levels from that yard, he could develop into
something quite outstanding.
You wouldn't expect him to progress quite as much as some of his
predecessors and bang out a 145 figure in the King George, but the above
improvement figures do highlight what that yard is capable of with
their best older horses.
They also point to Workforce putting down a serious mark as he bids to derail the antipodean juggernaut.
Stoute's charge certainly made a bright start to the season at
Sandown on Thursday, indicating that he could be better than ever by
winning in a style that underlined his determination and class.
The one-length margin over Poet, even considering the winner's 7lb
penalty, tells little of what actually happened at Sandown that night.
Poet quickly grabbed a nice lead and managed to maintain a five to eight length cushion for the first half of the race.
When they turned in it became clear that nothing was going to catch him, unless Workforce could do something extraordinary.
As Workforce gradually wore down the leader, the rest of the field,
which included Jan Vermeer andCavalryman, failed to get within four
lengths of Poet, eventually fading to finish a full 11 lengths behind
the runner-up.
Considering where Workforce had to come from and what happened to the
others that tried to match his manoeuvre,it was an incredible effort to
actually win.
Workforce was rated 'straight' for his length margin over Poet (118),
producing a winning RPR of 127+, but given the means of his success and
the fact that Stoute expected him to come on a lot for the run, this
effort can only indicate good things for the season ahead.
With two horses potentially capable of rating in the mid-130s (or
higher) the clashes between Workforce and So You Think promise to
provide the backbone to the 2011 season.
We can only hope that connections show a little backbone themselves and allow their champions to lock horns at least once.
Improvement can be expected from both horses now they are fully
mature, but precisely how much they find will probably only be revealed
if and when they meet.
It might be that So You Think proves the better over 1m2f and
Workforce comes out on top over 1m4f – those are certainly the distance
preferences they have shown to date, although both are flexible.
Or perhaps So You Think could make history by winning a 1m4f feature race in Europe like the King George or Arc?
Either way it promises to be both informative and, more importantly, incredibly exciting.
Sarafina is
another star who looks set to make a name for herself on the
middle-distance scene this year, although she is unlikely to run up
against the big two until the Arc.
She was possibly unlucky in the 2010 Arc, where she was shuffled back
to last before staying on to take third behind Workforce and she is
likely to go well again this time round.
In the Prix Corrida on Monday she looked at least as good as ever,
cruising past her rivals to score stylishly by two lengths from recent
Group 3 winner Announce in a course record time.
The win was worthan RPR of 125+. Factor in a fillies allowance and a
possibility of further improvement and she can mix it with the colts
again this term. Most of them anyway.
TOP OF THE CLASS: Workforce 127+ Sir Michael Stoute (GB) (Brigadier Gerard Stakes, Sandown, 1m2f7y, May 26)
