Simon Rowlands on the World Thoroughbred Rankings
Timeform Debate
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Timeform /
11 January 2012 /
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Black Caviar had her rating raised while stood in her box.
"The idea is that they should
represent the definitive measure of merit for the world’s best
racehorses, comparable across generations. The reality is somewhat
different."
The latest World Thoroughbred Rankings were unveiled in
London this week, accompanied by not a little song and dance. Timeform's
Head of Research and Product Development Simon Rowlands offers his
opinion...
The World Thoroughbred Rankings are the
end-of-year ratings agreed by the senior official handicappers from a
dozen or so nations around the world. The idea is that they should
represent the definitive measure of merit for the world's best
racehorses, comparable across generations. The reality is somewhat
different.
The WTRs have been going since 2004 and even in that small time
appear to have owed more than a little to the lobbying abilities of
those involved.
There are, for instance, many more Australian-trained horses listed
now than in the early days, to a degree that can only be explained by
human intervention. The Australian champion of 2011, Black Caviar, had her rating raised from 128 to 132 while stood in her box as a result of decision-by-committee in Hong Kong.
At the same time, Frankel was raised from 135 to 136
because, as a BHA handicapper said, "no-one can say Frankel was
inferior, or superior, to Sea The Stars, so to call him the same horse
was fair."
This sort of nonsense undermines not only the WTRs but the discipline
of handicapping, which does not have to be - indeed, should not be - an
exercise in pure subjectivity and craven diplomacy.
And the situation gets worse when those behind the WTRs attempt to
compare this year's ratings with those from yesteryear, as represented
by the WTR's predecessor, the International Classifications.
Somewhere along the way, the ratings have suffered from "slippage" of
several pounds, so that we can be told - with a straight face - that
Frankel is the eighth-highest-rated horse since 1977. He is, for
instance, 1 lb behind the 1979 Arc winner Three Troikas, who was 5 lb
better than Black Caviar and 4 lb better than any other filly in the
last 34 years. Purrr-lease.
It is necessary to make an adjustment to the WTRs to bring them back into line with Timeform ratings, which have been calibrated to a consistent level over a much longer time period.
That adjustment is roughly 5 lb with three-year-olds and older horses
judged on this week's offerings, so that Frankel's WTR 136 can be
viewed as 2 lb below Timeform's 143. Black Caviar's 132 is, effectively,
2 lb ahead of Timeform's 135.
In this context, the differences between WTR ratings and Timeform ratings usually do come down to just a pound or two.
The top three-year-olds of 2011 (Dream Ahead and Excelebration,
in addition to Frankel) seem to have been underrated somewhat. This may
well be as a result of the official handicappers' poundage allowances,
which we at Timeform are convinced are insufficient in some
circumstances.
Nathaniel (127 Timeform) seems fortunate to have
been awarded 126 (i.e. 131 in real terms) on the WTRs for winning a
four-finisher King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes.
The Breeders' Cup Classic winner Drosselmeyer (126
Timeform) looks over-rated on WTR 124. Perhaps it was felt necessary to
throw the Americans a bone in what was a forgettable year for racing in
that country.
The general discrepancy between WTRs and Timeform ratings is much
less with the leading two-year-olds - indeed, the two sets of ratings
are more or less comparable - and arguably less controversial.
WTRs have Camelot (117P on Timeform) and Dabirsim (120p) joint-top on 119. Timeform has Harbour Watch
top on 121p (WTR 117). The differences seem to be less about assessment
of form and more about interpretation of ease of victory. One thing on
which WTR and Timeform clearly agree is that it was not a vintage crop
of juveniles in 2011.
It seems that the WTRs are here to stay, despite their lack of
credibility in some areas. So we can look forward to more of the same in
January 2013.
Perhaps Frankel - woefully underrated by the official handicappers as
a two-year-old and undersold in 2011 - will get the credit he deserves
then and even manage to creep ahead of Three Troikas.
