Racehorse TALK

Geelong R1
#8 A Rocking Good Way (B) - 1st starter by Fastnet Rock from a good American family, Kavanagh trained, yard in good form, likely to be well above this maiden tag level, must be given serious respect.
#11 Miss Camalach (B) - strong on line when 2nd on debut on this track over 1000m, good margins further back that day, extra distance suits, best of the exposed race form.
#10 In The Book (C) - 1st starter by under-rated speed sire Keep The Faith out of a dual winning Marauding mare, trial win by 2.5l at Gawler that has produced 3 subsequent winners, Hayes trained, interestingly ships to Victoria instead of trying easier maidens in South Australia

Verdict - Overall a race with good depth for the tag, Special Credit is the 3.10 favorite prepost which does seem unders considering the unexposed types it takes on, may well be a good value lay bet if it is bet near the top of the market. A Rocking Good Way is 14.00 prepost which shapes as very good value. In The Book may be worth specking if anywhere near the 18.00 prepost is bet.

Geelong R2
#10 Husskila (A) - close up behind the likes of Trim, Aloha, My Emotion and Headway in 2yo and 3yo days, very good 1st and 2nd up last prep vs clearly stronger as well, drawn the 2 alley, the class runner, with the right trip it wins.
#4 Muskwa (B) - off the scene for 399 days leading into this, query, tried to make all at Hamilton over 1400m 2nd up last prep, blowsed on wire, btn by 2 well bred Zabeels, good margins further back, shorter trip here suits, bred for speed by Fastnet Rock.

Verdict - Husskila looks the class runner here and only needs luck to win, 4.20 prepost is slight overs, potential value at 3.50+, not a lot of depth in the race so the prepost favorite Dash For Viz quoted at 3.40 does have its chance, may be worthwhile value laying if it is bet at less than 3.50, but no major confidence on the lay side of things in this race.

Geelong R3
#6 Manicero (A) - very well bred type by Fastnet Rock out of the G3 winning Centaine mare La Rumba, gelded now, 1st up here having 2nd career start on the back of a strong trial 2nd at Cranbourne behind Perfect Pecs, 3rd home in trial won its 2 prior trials and Cosmocrat further back, wide gate the big query here, astute yard, astute front running hoop booked.
#1 Barely An Angel (C) - mixes form but has shown glimpses 3rd up last prep and 2nd up prep prior that is capable at this level, has claims but scope questionable
#2 Chewing Steel (C) - Kavanagh trained Bianconi 5yo having 4th run this prep, below par last 2 starts after good 2nd on debut at Seymour over 1100m, has claims on debut run.

Verdict - Manicero looks the clear cut top elect here but has to bring the trial form to raceday, gelded now so happy to take that risk, 5.00 prepost does look decent overs, top 3 elects above are top 3 in betting prepost so no major laying value at top of market but Miss Carissa Ann, 4th in betting market at 6.50 prepost may be good value for layers if bet near that price.

Geelong R4
#9 I'll Be Good (B) - Hayes trained Encosta De Lago 3yo filly from the family of Grand Lodge, good closing pars on an unsuitable wet track when 3rd on debut behind Zoned In, franked that 3rd to Rainbow Queen over 1600m next start, 1st up here and sure to have come on significantly since.
#5 Lonhrotothetop (B) - well bred type by Lonhro out of a Zedative mare, unsuited on wet track 1st up last start but not disgraced, 1st up last prep wide margin 3rd to Plain Lucky over 1000m reads well considering better suited here up to 1300m, lightly raced, good scope.
#6 Samsation (C) - decent 2nd when 2nd up 3 back this prep over this track and distance but overall depth of form slightly questionable vs top 2 elects here, has claims all the same

Verdict - The prepost favorite here is Delago Dusk at 2.50 having placed all 3 starts this prep in similar grade but scope for more and depth out of those races is questionable, really is a risk at that price and worth laying if bet that short come post time. I'll Be Good shapes as very good value at 10.00 prepost as top elect.

Geelong R5
#8 Yule Luvit (B) - decent effort 1st up last start 2nd this track and distance with good margins further back, as a minimum should hold that level but likely scope for more for fitness, decently weighted vs other major seen chances
#1 Dairy (B) - Snowden trained Octagonal maiden performer who produced 2 good placings last prep in good quality maidens, doing best work on line 1st up over 1100m this prep, sure to have come on since, better suited, 59kg somewhat a query vs race winners but leading yard places horses well.
#6 Al Saqeer (C) - former Kiwi having 1st start in Australia, looks suited over further but did run a good 2nd in maiden company over 1355m having 3rd career start, must be respected.
#3 Staunch North (C) - Fastnet Rock 4yo gelding who is deceivingly well placed going on good hidden merit associated 2nd at Warracknabeal 1st up this prep, below par last start, forgive run, Rawiller booked from decent gate.

Verdict - overall depth of form in this race nothing to get overly excited about, Yule Luvit is 3.60 2nd fav prepost which does look too short as a win betting prospect, Staunch North at 12.00 prepost and Al Saqeer at 18.00 prepost may be worth specking, not a race to get too heavily involved in.

Geelong R6

Verdict - race full of tried and tested stayers that mix form, lottery, best left alone.

Geelong R7
#2 Asterix (A) - impressive breaking maiden 1st up at Bendigo over 1100m, big closing pars and strong on line, better suited here, big scope for more, forgive last start, merely adds to value, decently weighted with only 57.5kg
#1 Season Of Fortune (A) - very well bred type by Lonhro out of the high class race mare Fatoon, 2nd up fitter now, very good on debut btn 4.9l by Stirling Grove last prep then broke maiden comfortably by 2l at Kyneton over 1112m, big weight to lump is a query but has scope and class in its corner
#7 It's No Myth (B) - impressive debut win by 2l over this track and distance last start, can only improve further on the back of that effort, well weighted with 55kg after the claim.

Verdict - overly strong race for the class, Delighted Owners is the prepost favorite at 3.80, definite unders at that price and warrants laying if anywhere near that price is bet vs the top 3 elects noted above, Asterix and Season of Fortune look to have it between them, 5.50 and 6.00 about the two of them for a result across the race prepost is slight overs.

Geelong R8
#10 Red Belly Black (A) - very well bred Hayes trained 3yo Rock Of Gibraltar 3yo filly, 2yo city winner on debut then down the track inbetween long breaks last 2 starts, if it can reproduce its 2yo form it will prove super hard to hold out here despite the very strong field for the class
#4 Strike The Tiger (A) - below par last start on a wet track but only btn 2l by Curtana 1st up at Caulfield, if it hits that level again here (likely) it will figure in the finish
#1 Spirit Cent (B) - big weight to lump but very impressive 1st up last prep scoring by 3.5l over this track and distance, plenty of other early speed engaged which may prove its undoing under the big weight, proven at this level all the same
#9 No Vanity (B) - very hard to knock any of its 7 career starts so far and holds form very well, likely to get one of the runs of the race, solid claims

Verdict - very strong race for the class, Strike The Tiger and No Vanity dominate the prepost market at 2.90 and 3.20 but they both have serious claims, prefer to be backing Red Belly Black 13.00 prepost and Spirit Cent 18.00 prepost both to win from a value perspective. Overall depth of race very strong so hard to be confident with so many of them capable at this level.

Geelong R9
#7 Wantonly (B) - winner 2 of last 4 and 2nd one other, lightly raced compared to most of foes and has the most scope for more, winner on this track beating the other major hopes in this 2 starts ago then 2nd over 1500m last start doing best work on line, ticks the most boxes
#4 Thebestmoneycanbuy (B) - visually impressive breaking maiden by 4l at Terang 2nd up 6 starts ago then close up next 3 vs similar, below par last start, can atone here with the right trip, likely soft on pace trip and capable of overcoming wide gate
#9 Ready Zuca (C) - on a quick 7 day backup and got back to an acceptable level last start 2nd over 2200m, if can hold that level it has claims
#11 Dramastic (C) - good 2nd to Wantonly on this track 2 starts ago after winning by 5l at the picnics 4 starts ago, outside claims on a repeat

Verdict - not a great quality race for the class, so wont take much to win, Wantonly is the deserved favorite and looks about the right mark at 3.00 prepost, also worth backing Thebestmoneycanbuy at the prepost odds of 10.00 which looks good value for the 2nd elect for a result across the race, Sharp Way is the big value lay at 3.80 prepost, its last start win was vs nothing and this is tougher.