Racehorse TALK

The question is, what weight will he get? Based on his performance and the rating he ran to when winning last year, I think he'll get around 58kg's this year.

IMHO, if he does get 58kg's, it will be enough to bring him back to the field. Not saying he can't win with that weight, but it will be infinitely harder this year with the extra.

That would be the reason to go for Cox Plate WFA as a lead up & look at the competiton. What other horses will be in the mix this year? (unless SYT comes back as well).     

http://andrewhawkinsracing.wordpress.com/2011/08/04/watch-americains-run-in-the-prix-de-reux-here/

Replay at link       

Arthur wrote..".One thing is for sure; should he win the CP the 16.0 or whatever on offer now will look very attractive"


And he tails off last in the Cox Plate ?

What do you mean Bubbasmith?
Why would he be last in a cox plate?

Not to steal Bubba's thunder but I think he's merely pointing out there's a bit of the hypothetical stuff going on here.

Arthur was hypothesizing if the horse won the Cox Plate that having $ 16 now about the horse in the Melb.Cup would "look very attractive" I was  counter hypothesizing, if the horse failed in the Cox Plate, $ 16 would not be very attractive.
Any odds, about any horse, this far out from the Melbourne Cup, will in hindsight prove to be attractive or not attractive. From where I stand I would not be taking $16 about any horse this far out from the Melbourne Cup.

I get ya now mate....been chopping wood and a bit slow.
The 28 to 1 was Ok a week or two back however.
Wouldn't be many I'd back this far out. but sometimes ya gotta trust your instinct.
Remember gettting 50s on the Diva's 1st cup. Ya gotta have a go when ya see a 'special stayer'..he is one.
Thanks for link to video of the Prix De Reux guys
He is flyin!!!
Good odds for Cox Plate? 50's out there

I might relate to an acquittance who had backed five horses to win the Melb Cup in the August prior to the Cup some years ago. The odds he got varied in price from 33/1 to 100/1 but overall he outlayed, in percentage terms, 8.5% of a market. On race day one of the horses, which he had got 100/1  ran in the race and started at 25/1. If he had not bet so far out from the race he could have put his 8.5 % on that one horse on Cup day and stood to win twice as much as he did by betting so far out from the race.His only runner would have needed to have started around 11/1 or less for him to have achieved "overs" on his "August" bets.

Jim Pike had $50 on Malucky Day at $1000 for last years Cup.

Started at about 10/1.

Yep, everyone here knew of Jim's (great) bet...very close he came as well...except for 'the big fella' who ran straight past him.
However (if ya beleive Jims bet actually happened) he has also noted here how he finds these long priced Zabeels...he backs heaps of em on spec.
I might relate to you that I ain't talkin bout throwing bets around on multiple chances...just one.
Like my Makybe bet, one of the few long range ones I've had, I only backed her.
Both your points aren't really relevant are they....
I might win and I may lose.
I don't wanna see him win at 6 to 1 when I shoulda taken the 28's.

Americain (AKA Double barrel 2 cups easy ) Was 28 to 1, now can be laid at 17 to 1.
Not bad. (If only the missus let me play in the bigger numbers)
Can only be backed at 14 to 1 or so.
15 to 1 only available for Cox Plate...pretty tight.

I was informed today by a well connected punter that if Americain got more than 57.5 kg in the Cup it would not be here.

He will not be here.

Gee you fellas reckon he's as good as I reckon he is.
Does he deserve a 3kg rise? (I think 54 and a half is what he carried)
What precedents? Think Big/ Makybe didn't cop that did they?
Thought 2 and a half would do meself!!!