Disclosed form: is winning getting just too hard? - #1 Horse Racing Forum in Australia for Race-Horse News

Peter Mair

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Original Post 2011-Jul-17, 10:23 PM

Disclosed form: is 'winning' getting just too hard?

While there are many pieces of evidence -- especially unexpectedly large Trifecta and F4 dividends -- pointing up the apparent difficulty most punters have 'reading' the form guide, it is also the case that professional media-tipsters are less often correct in their assessments these days.

Some years ago it was my practice to point up the regularity with which Shane Montgomery delivered the goods in his 'Monty's Top 5' selections in the Sydney Morning Herald, especially on Saturdays. I still consider this latter day 'Hats' to be the best of the free-to-see media tipsters but it is not as often these days that he excels.

He had a relatively good day yesterday -- in Sydney he had the first 3 legs of the $400+ quadrella 'on top' and the winner of the last leg was his 3rd selection (with the 'on top' pick running a close second) -- in Melbourne, in 5 of the 8 races, he selected 3 of the first4 placegetters from in his top 5.

Monty's results are indicative -- media tipsters generally do not rate very well and I suspect that most, including Monty, would say that the task of tipping winners has got harder -- all irrespective of the better technology which form analysts have available these days. I will also plead guilty to a charge of 'declining competence' compared to a decade or so ago.

In looking for explanations, I certainly do not suggest that the less reliable results for Saturday racing reflect increased misbehaviour by participants -- but I am inclined to say that the mature horses contesting most races are racing less consistently true to form than was so a generation ago. Presumably any decline in quality would show up in comparative ratings across the years -- something 'unknown' seems to be delivering too much in the way of random results and inflated dividends.

Whatever, the outcomes are consistent with a general decline in the quality of the racing product delivered to punters and it hardly bodes well for the future of the local industry.


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Peter Mair

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2011-Aug-07, 07:21 PM

Country racing -- matters of facts and unreasonable expectations of entitlements

Whether or not there is less country racing recently is a matter of fact.

The critical question for those promoting and participating in country racing is whether or not they are prepared to limit demands to fund their product to a 5% share of the TAB turnover on the meeting.

One implication of this proposal is that the prizemoney payable may not be known until after the races are run and other expenses of conducting the meeting are recovered.

Underlying this thinking is my regular refrain that the racing industry generally needs to manage much better the quality of the betting prospects offered to punters. To all appearances, product quality control is a foreign concept to racing administrators -- the general impression given by the industry is that 'connections' are entitled to pull stunts on TAB punters and competing 'connections' intended to knock off the TAB pool for the successful plotters.

Irrespective of the Betfair levy outcome, without proper product quality management the racing industry is facing a steady decline in total funding available and all involved should be planning to deal with the consequences -- it will not be Saturday metropolitan racing that goes first.


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Jimdog

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2011-Aug-07, 08:55 PM

Management of racing nsw has alot to answer for. The levy should help us if it works out but the fat cats, mismanagement and jobs for the boys attitude has not helped.


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J.Glenoban

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2011-Aug-08, 10:16 AM

Does anyone the exact figures that show the extent that city racing subsidises country racing.

It seems to be accepted wisdom that this is the case but i'd be interested to see tab revenue generated vs prizemoney paid numbers.

I was looking at the Harness Racing Victoria annual report last week and it seemed to me that the opposite case was true.
ie. country racing was actually subsiding metro racing.


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arthur

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2011-Aug-08, 02:14 PM

J.Glenoban writes ... 2011-Aug-08, 10:16 AM

I was looking at the Harness Racing Victoria annual report last week and it seemed to me that the opposite case was true.
ie. country racing was actually subsiding metro racing.

I am sure that you would be correct , , But as P.M. so correctly points out:"It will NOT be Saturday metro racing that goes first


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