Racehorse TALK

As it stands that is unlikely to test Manawanui's stamina.

agree, and Leemon must be over the moon this won't be a rough and tough run before the Derby.

I love Mana, have been on him the last few starts, but the distance is a big query for me.
I'm not quite ready to jump in both feet yet, think he might need to blow a bit on the day as I imagine he will be short.
Might start a campaign to talk up Gai's as unbeatable. 

I also love Mana ... another 120k for a barrier trial ... go Ronnie go 

Oink !

I'm not so sure this will be such a cakewalk, had a really tough hit out in the guineas and will be his 5th run this prep. I doubt they will kick on after this race, personally I wouldn't be running him at all.

The 2 = stinkin moral

you are counting the Stan Fox as a run ? 
so Helmet would not be running in the CP then ?
I'm assuming Niagara won't run, but I guess its Gai, so anything is possible
if he jogs around in second gear as I expect, no reason not to go play in the derby
he is a gelding

Oink !

Niagara may need the money to make the derby. I think I heard gai say he may go around

Helmet is a horse raced for the purpose of breeding. A cox plate win on his resume to go with the 3 other G1s over sprint-middle distance could mean he is worth anything from $30 mil + as a stallion.

It is proven in the past that long preparations for 3 year olds often results in them never coming back the same. I'm happy to be corrected but did Leemon say he would send Mana to the paddock after this race anyway? What's the point in running him? Sure there is 120k up for grabs but at the end of the day why would you risk a genuine G1 horse to chase some prizemoney?
I'd send him to the paddock now and send him to the Australia Guineas second up in the autumn.

Run him while he is in form. He is a gelding.

When he looks like he has had enough, spell him.

He could win this, then the Derby and it's a million or so in the kick. He is favourite for both. Why would you spell a horse who is favourite for two of the big races in a Melbourne Spring? Keep him going.

He might thrive on the tough racing.

correctamundo

Oink !

ps 1st up in the lightning ? 

Ok lets just assume he runs and wins this race on Saturday. He then backs up a week later in the Derby (never had a 7 day back up before) and fails. He would have had 6 runs this prep. He would then be asked to come up in the Autumn, most likely still recovering from the Spring preparation and possibly never race the way he currently is again.

My alternative would be to spell him now, attack the Australia Guineas which he would most likely walk in and go from there. You keep the horse fresh, and keep the options down the track open.

I have a very high opinion of this horse and would hate to see him burnt out by the trainer because of greed, a scenario we see all too often in racing.

But they are in it to race horses and win.

You have a horse who has form that is lengths clear of his rivals in one of the biggest races in the World. They may never get this opportunity again. History is littered with horses that are put away when they are flying to keep them for next season.

Manawanui might break down in the paddock or run into the next Black Caviar in the Autumn. But nobody can read the future.

Right now he is fit, hasn't broken down, there are no next Black Caviars and he is favourite for the Victoria Derby. He will go to the lead, stack them up for about 2000m and then sprint down the Flemington straight. Sure it's a risk but all racing is a risk. This grounding may toughen him up, give him experience at a big meeting and win him next years Cox Plate.

Race now, win the million or pull the pin if he looks distressed.

There is no real way of quantifying if a horse will coneback in as good a form as he went out. There is also no way of really knowing if a hard preparation will ruin a horses future preparations.

He could do any amount of harm to himself trotting and cantering around his paddock.

It is only guess work as to whether a horse will comeback or not.

If there is nothing wrong with him now - Keep going.