Racehorse TALK

You know what, if sone had told me a after the Stock that Southern Speed would win the Caulfield Cup and Pinker Pinker the Cox, I'd have aughed at them. Based on that and nothing alone, one must give Midnight Martini a large show in this.

For the record though, I have backed her at huge odds in the cup and backed Niwot and Spechenka in this (and the cup at huge odds). Think the field for the race this year is quite good.

correct me if I am wrong as it's late and I really couldn't be arsed going through my records but didn't Zazzman win this race before going onto run a place (think it was 3rd) the following year in the cup at cricket score odds? Can Madedonian do something similar?

I have not looked at him as closely as I should but do they ride him like most Australian stayers are ridden ?

These European stayers, their jockeys are not afraid to get going on them and make the races genuine staying tests, Our jockeys I believe are more concerned with saving energy for the end of the race.

If Macedonian is the stayer that Moody believes he is he should be being pushed along early and not be waiting for the final run to the line where as you have said, he is simply not fast enough.

I wonder if Jockeys have faith in their mounts staying the trip and as such ride them too conservatively, giving lesser stayers but faster horses their chance to out sprint them ?


I know what I have written made sense in my noggin.

anyone else shocked how short Green Moon is? barely get $3 some places.

He is an interesting one. Through circumstance he has been out wide and running early. Now from gate 6 he is a chance to get the "run of the race", Will that suit him ?

I have no idea what Europeans do - and don't much care.  Aiden's cowboys were enough for me. 

But I do know a little bit about Macedonian and he simply can't go at the rate that they went through the first 600m of the Caulfield Cup - and if any cowboy tried to make him go at rate he should be dragged from the saddle and deported because that would be what is called 'butchering' the horse in these parts.

From a standing start, including that inertia breaking first furlong, the Caulfield Cup field ran its first 600m in 36.15.  They ran their last 600m in full flight in 36.25.  In other words they went like cut cats early, and Macedonian just isn't capable of running that sort of pace from the jump. He's just not.  He is not a racing car, he is a deisel. 

What Macedonian did in the Caulfield Cup is battle to keep up through the first half mile and then return the fastest time through the last mile of the race.  It wasn't a cunning plan.  It wasn't the 'Australian way'.  That's just what he does, and all he is really capable of.  He has no tactical speed. He'll run 12.xx all day and all night but if he breaks 12 for 3 furlongs in a row he's looking for a Bex and good lie down.

Just a slow horse ?  Well, that's relative. 

A horse that runs 14 seconds for the first furlong and 12 second sections after that runs 1.38.0  to the mile which wont win him much in this part of the world.  But if he keeps churning out 12 second sections he runs 2000m in 2.02.0  which will win him some nice races, and if he keeps the 12 second sections going for another 400m he'll run 2400m in 2.26.0 which will win him the Caulfield Cup every year, and if he keeps churning his 12 second sections out for another half mile he'll run 2 miles in 3.14.0 which would be a world record and win most Melbourne Cups by about 20 lengths. 

Now our slow horse who can't break 12 seconds to the furlong, and gets left for dead at 1200m, looks like Secretariat over 2400m plus .... because he sustains his speed - the same speed that simply isn't competitive over a mile but is world class at a mile and a half.

That's an exaggerated and unrealistic example.  Horses aren't machines, they all get tired even those of the greatest stamina and endurance.  But the theoretical model is valid and illustrates what defines a stayer - the ability to sustain their speed over extended distances.  That speed is considered slow to a mile... but if it can be sustained for another half a mile it is world class fast.

Before folks start in on me I am not saying Macedonian is world class fast.  I am saying he is stayer.  He does not run a competitive mile - he is a slow horse over a mile - but he can sustain his rate beyond a mile and as others that have raced the clock early begin to labor, Macedonian will keep grinding away and pick them up.

Horses like Macedonian are at the mercy of what the others do.  If they go silly quick like they did in the Caulfield Cup or like Aiden's cowboys did a couple of years ago at Flemington and if others are inclined to try to go with them  then Macedonian becomes a live chance.  But if they go more sensibly and keep their powder dry, well, Macedonian doesn't have a prayer because he depends on those faster horses spending their chips sooner rather than later.

Nothing suits a horse like Macedonian better than to have his opponents race keenly early especially on rain affected ground - not because he is a mudlark, but because going silly quick on soft ground will suck the speed out of them faster than it will on firm ground.  They will begin to labor sooner rather than later  and Macedonian will keep chugging away regardless - or so it seemed on Slow ground in both the Lavazza and the Sandown Cup last year.

He is a hard horse to tip because he is so dependent on others doing precisely what you are recommending that he do - get going early and make the race a 'genuine staying test'.  Only Macedonian is not capable of running his first 600 in 36.15 like the leaders did in the Caulfield Cup.  He was only capable of 38.3 which is about right - the first furlong in 14 the next couple in 24.  That's about as sharp as he gets from the gate. 

The opposite. I expect him to jump shorter if track doesnt deteriote.

What he did at Newcastle was impossible, horses dont do that and he was clearly the best run in the race in the Caulfield Cup.  3 wide the duration and beaten by a horse that had a suck run and was a perfect ride.

I took 3.50 before the Tullamore deduction and he is is a moral.

Tullamore ^& Moyenne are both out.

I left them in my starstable last night thinking they were running

Tullamore was scratched yesterday arvo.

tontonan, I am not saying he should go from the time the gates open, I am saying when the other jockeys put the anchors on and they do and will, his jockey should start his move. They do and can be proactive if they really want to win with him  and if he is a genuine stayer.

When the anchors go on how long does it take for Macedonian to wind up from whatever speed they are going to his maximum speed ?

In other words forget the first 600 and think about the 2nd and 3rd last 600s, that is when the majority of jockeys lose their staying races.

Nice read, thanks Tontonan

You say -

"If Macedonian is the stayer that Moody believes he is he should be being pushed along early and not be waiting for the final run to the line where as you have said, he is simply not fast enough."

then

" I am not saying he should go from the time the gates open, I am saying when the other jockeys put the anchors on and they do and will, his jockey should start his move..."


But that is exactly what happened.

I think we have already established that Macedonian has no tactical speed and from the gate the Field ran 48 seconds through the first half mile (which we are supposed to forget about ?!) and Macedonian managed 50.3 seconds putting him about 12 lengths off the pace.

The Field ran the second half mile in 52 - this horrible Australian habit of allowing the horses to steady after a hectic start - and Macedonian ran his in 51 seconds - six lengths faster than the field in the section of the race you recommend that he start his move.  That he did.

The last half mile the Field ran 48.3. Macedonian ran his in 47.9.

Macedonian ran the fastest final 1600m of any horse in the race.

Given his lack of tactical speed, having managed to just keep up over the first half mile Macedonian steadily increased his rate from the mile to the winning post.

You want him to go quicker through the second half mile ?  If he had been pushed along to run the second half mile in say, 50 seconds, what sort of time do you think he would have been capable of running in the last half mile ?  He wouldn't have broken 48.
Would he have broken 49 ?  I doubt it.
Would he have finished closer to the winner if he had been pressed harder through the second half mile ?  I doubt it.

If he had tried would Moody have been asking Nolen what the hell do you think you were doing ?  Probably.


Edit :  I going back to the Caulfield Cup replay to watch Macedonian and write this waffle I just keep seeing the run of Green Moon which is absolutely huge ......... but that's no secret judging from his price.

OK, So you have establish he is not fast enough over a mile and he is not fast enough over 2400m. He is a victim of our lack of 2 mile races of any class that will allow him to earn a weight that will get him into the Cup without having to run in races his trainer would prefer not to run in.

I don't make blanket judgments like that Matt. 

My creed is always that the winner is invariably the horse who is best suited to the circumstances of the race as it run.  In the right circumstances Macedonian can win contests beyond 2400m (such as the Lavazza and the Sandown Cup). 

He was not fast enough to win the Caulfield Cup but he put up a credible performance in the circumstances that suggest to me that he is going every bit as well as he was last spring and should be considered in any race beyond 2400m in the appropriate circumstances when ridden wisely. 

Race 2 – THE LEXUS STAKES (Group 3) - 2500 metres:

Stewards were advised on Friday October 28, that from the favourable barrier draw, Green Moon (IRE) would be ridden forward.  Green Moon (IRE) subsequently led however weakened in the straight.  N Hall rider of Green Moon (IRE) could offer no explanation for the performance. A subsequent veterinary examination revealed the horse to have the thumps.

Tactic (GB) was slow to begin.

Showcause jumped awkwardly, shifted in and bumped Macedonian (NZ).

From the 1000m Galizani raced wide without cover.

M Rodd reported that Midnight Martini did not feel right in its action.  A post race veterinary examination of Midnight Martini revealed the mare to be lame in the off foreleg and slightly lame in the near foreleg and trainer Mr M Kavanagh was advised that a veterinary certificate of fitness is required prior to the mare racing again.