Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
2012-May-26, 04:32 PM

Login with username, password and session length

Racehorse TALK
Racehorse TALK » Racing Talk » Betting, Tips & Ratings » Topic: First 4 Methods
Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 10   Go Down
« previous next »
 
Author Topic: First 4 Methods  (Read 3987 times)
0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.
triple7
Editor
Group 1
user 14
Online Online
Posts: 7108
Original Post 2011-Oct-24, 05:37 PM

I having been playing around with some First 4 methods, and wondered if any have any particular approaches / methods that they prefer and might like to share.

DD shared with us some yrs ago an approach of ABC for trifectas that can be used for F4's, selecting your A B and C runners and then taking a few tickets where an A or B runner must win, and a A runner must run 1, 2, 3 or 4 (if taking 4 tickets). The A runner/s are those you are confident could win or should run a place, B runner/s those you consider a danger / chance, C runners those you expect / need to fill the holes. If your A runners don't fill a hole you have a dead combination. This explanation will require further detail.

Any other approaches / methods that others like to use / find helpful?



I have attached as a pdf a copy of the worksheet that I use based on the approach outlined by DD in this thread which might be helpful for anyone interested.

If anyone has trouble with a download please let me know or alternativly email me at - thesevens777@hotmail.com and I shall send you a copy.

NB. This is the method that I use more often than not, but can be modified to suit (more or less A B or C selections), and is to act as a guide only.
* ABC First 4 worksheet.pdf (37.06 KB - downloaded 211 times.)
« Last Edit: 2011-Oct-26, 08:40 AM by triple7 » Logged
 
fours
Group3
user 704
Online Online
Posts: 951
2011-Oct-24, 05:52 PM

Triple7,

I gave an approach one can try on DD's place thread for fourth..... He did not like it.

Others might.

Fours
Logged
dubbledee
Editor
Group 1
user 285
Offline Offline
Posts: 23879
2011-Oct-24, 06:58 PM

Triple7,

I gave an approach one can try on DD's place thread for fourth..... He did not like it.

Others might.

Fours


Fours, I think you should take another look at my comments.

What I said was that picking First Fours AFTER the race was easy.  You continued to miss that point.

Why not open a thread and show us your skills BEFORE the race.  They're the ones that count.  Great Idea
Logged
dubbledee
Editor
Group 1
user 285
Offline Offline
Posts: 23879
2011-Oct-24, 07:05 PM

777, I'll do a post on my suggested approach.  It's the best I've seen and has given me some monster returns.

But before doing so, it's worth listing the simple approaches.

1.  Boxing N horses will require N x (N-1) x (N-2) x (N-3) combinations.

That is, IMO, not the way to take FFs.

2.  Taking a rover of 1 horse with N others will require 1 x N x (N-1) x (N-2) x 3 combinations.

Thus, roving 1 horse with 6 others requires 1 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 = 360 combos.

3.  Taking W horses to win, X horses to run 2nd, Y horses to run 3rd and Z horses to run 4th will require W x (X-1) x (Y-2) x (Z-3) combinations.  Note that the horses on each line MUST be continued to the next line.  Any other approach would be illogical.

As an example, 3 to win, 4 to run 2nd, 6 to run 3rd and 8 to run 4th, gives us 3 x 3 x 4 x 5 = 180 combos

These are the basics, but some might not understand them, so they're listed in detail.
« Last Edit: 2011-Oct-24, 07:09 PM by dubbledee » Logged
dubbledee
Editor
Group 1
user 285
Offline Offline
Posts: 23879
2011-Oct-24, 07:08 PM

Oh, and another common one...

4. You stand out 1 horse as the winner, and have N others to run the places.

The required combos is 1 x N x (N-1) x (N-2).

Thus to have your selection to win with 6 others is 1 x 6 x 5 x 4 = 120 combos.
Logged
pegasyber
Group3
user 909
Offline Offline
Alias: comprate
Posts: 584
2011-Oct-24, 07:31 PM

Thanks Triple7 / Fours and DD, A most interesting subject, I wonder what you would have done in this event.

Now I came up with three primary absolute selects of [  14  5  9  ] and a second set of specials [  3  13  11  4  5   9 ]

How would you structure your First Four multis in this case.

 Most of this info was put up on the Forum before the race in the Tattsbet thread or Cox Plate thread, but not in color.
« Last Edit: 2011-Oct-24, 08:40 PM by pegasyber » Logged
dubbledee
Editor
Group 1
user 285
Offline Offline
Posts: 23879
2011-Oct-24, 07:48 PM

The First Four staking method referred to in the opening post goes like this.

You assign your FF chances into 3 categories:

A = one of which MUST run 1st 2nd or 3rd.

B = can win, and of course can run a place.

C = cannot win, but can run a place.

Let's look at an example:

You think HELMET and JIMMY CHOUX are your top chances in the Cox Plate.

You also think SINCERO, REKINDLED INTEREST and PINKER PINKER are winning chances.

You think WALL STREET, LION TAMER and SECRET ADMIRER are place hopes.

So, we have 2 horses on the A line, 3 on the B line, and 3 on the C line.

To box those 8 in the FF requires 1680 combos.  That's a bit over the top for most of us - but of course it's the easy approach.

I suggest trimming down the costs along the lines mentioned above.

We take 3 tickets:

Ticket 1: A x (A+B+C) x (A+B+C) x (A+B+C) = 2 x 7 x 6 x 5 = 420 combos.

Ticket 2: B x A x (A+B+C) x (A+B+C) = 3 x 2 x 6 x 5 = 180 combos

Ticket 3: B x (B+C) x A x (A+B+C) = 3 x 5 x 2 x5 = 150 combos

Thus the total combos is reduced to 750 combos (vs 1680).

As it happens, we would have got the FF.  Good judge, eh?   lol

Those combos might sound a bit complicated, but with experience ya can put them on blindfolded.

Obviously, we can apply flexi-betting to this strategy.  That minimises outlays, and/or allows us to cover more horses.

Anyone with basic spreadsheet skills can produce a Table with various numbers on the A, B and C lines.

As an example, having 3 on the A line (one of which MUST run 1st, 2nd or 3rd), 3 more on the B line (any of which can win or run a 2nd, 3rd or 4th), and 3 more on the C line (any one which can run 2nd, 3rd or 4th), requires 1656 combos.  Anyone could pick a First Four with that number, surely?



 
Logged
JWesleyHarding
Group 1
user 231
Online Online
Posts: 10302
2011-Oct-24, 08:22 PM

C = cannot win, but can run a place.


Someone should check on Ara following the choice of this race as an example of the First Four staking strategy.
Logged
fours
Group3
user 704
Online Online
Posts: 951
2011-Oct-24, 08:23 PM

Doubledee,

Now doing it after the race hey.....

Back in February I gave some methodical steps that anyone can follow before the race, as easily as after the race, to obtain value from the first four. That value has a cost in that low dividend combos simply were not taken by using permutations.

The race involved Teary Eyed 3rd up and in the near future Teary Eyed will be 3rd up once again - having shown little so far in its first two starts in as per usual. History doesnot repeat exactly and the good run may be 4th or 5th in rather than 3rd in but I will have a go before the race for each of those races. A small get out clause is that if the race is too easy I will pass that race - mid week too.

Fours
Logged
dubbledee
Editor
Group 1
user 285
Offline Offline
Posts: 23879
2011-Oct-24, 08:33 PM

Fours, just open a thread and show us how ya win.

Not that difficult is it?
Logged
fours
Group3
user 704
Online Online
Posts: 951
2011-Oct-24, 08:44 PM

Doubledee,

Please refer to the $400.00 tipping competition..... the last few years.

Fours
Logged
el zoro
Group 1
user 367
Offline Offline
Posts: 5079
2011-Oct-24, 08:49 PM

My best return ever on a F4(scooped the pool) was by putting my top 2 picks on top, & 3 others for the placings. My only advice is to always include a roughie somewhere as that is what you will need to pay a really big div.
AB * ABCDE * ABCDE * ABCDE
2 x 4 x 3 x 2 = 48 combos for 25% = $12

So the logic is that you have 2 picks to get the winner & if your roughie lobs in somewhere then you still have 3 horses to run the other 2 spots. Still, you gotta have some luck on your side.  
Logged
dubbledee
Editor
Group 1
user 285
Offline Offline
Posts: 23879
2011-Oct-24, 08:54 PM

Doubledee,

Please refer to the $400.00 tipping competition..... the last few years.
Fours


We're talking about First Fours, I thought?

OK, so you found a roughie or two.  Even I've tipped a 100/1 winner.  lol
Logged
monologue
Group 1
user 200
Offline Offline
Posts: 5336
2011-Oct-24, 09:03 PM

My way of getting the First Fours numbers across the line is for me to take a 4 horse boxed trifecta.

Works quite often. mad
Logged
fours
Group3
user 704
Online Online
Posts: 951
2011-Oct-24, 09:03 PM

Doubledee,

As El Zoro writes you have to get a roughie into the first four to make good money. Unless short combos, only, are taken many times in a low variance race ( derbys come to mind ).

The roughie requirment is a bonus as this means we can do perms to drastically reduce the combos taken as against silly boxing methods.

As I showed on the example given on your place thread, I will do the same for teary Eyed next few runs, if suitable, before the race. Of course if too many shorties fill the placings a loss will occur - so a long term outlook is required; as always.

Fours
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 10   Go Up
 
« previous next »
 
Back to "All Topics"      Back to "Home Page"
Jump to:  

 - Links - Luxbet Horse Racing Betting - Racenet - Horse Racing - Noms and Acc - QTAB - TAB Horse Racing Betting - Racing and Sports - Horse Racing Only
Powered by SMF 1.1.15 | SMF © 2011, Simple Machines
TinyPortal v0.9.8 © Bloc | Adagio design by Bloc