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Racehorse TALK » Racing Talk » Comps & Clubs » Topic: The 2011 Melbourne Cup FIRST FOUR Comp
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Author Topic: The 2011 Melbourne Cup FIRST FOUR Comp  (Read 2096 times)
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dubbledee
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Original Post 2011-Oct-25, 01:02 PM


On another thread there's been discussion around First Four betting strategies.

I've outlined one approach which I believe has plenty going for it in that it provides good coverage, while minimising outlays.

So we're gonna have a comp on the Cup.

The strategy I use requires us to sort our chances into 3 groups, and our staking is based on this.

Group A: One of these horses must run 1st, 2nd or 3rd - or ya ticket's confetti.

Group B: These horses can WIN, and of course are in the placings, too.

Group C: These horses are in the placings, only.

For the comp, you're asked to select THREE horses in each line.  That's a total of 9.

To comply with the requirements specified for the 3 groups, 3 First Four tickets will be (notionally) placed - don't worry about that aspect for the comp, but it's outlined on the First Four thread if anyone's interested.

There are 1656 combos for a 3 x 3 x 3 ticket using the suggested staking approach.  In the comp, we'll all be outlaying $1656, hypothetically.

So here are the instructions and rules.

1. Competition begins AFTER acceptances on Saturday next.  Entries prior to this time will be invalid.

2. Put your entries in something like this:

A: 3 - 8 - 15

B: 1 - 6 - 12

C: 4 - 9 - 22

No need to put in horse names.

3. Entries CLOSE at NOON AEST on Cup Day.

4.  One entry per forum nick.

5.  Edits are permitted up to closing time, but the time of posting will be the time of your last edit.

6.  Winner will be the entry that gets the First Four - using the staking approach outlined.  If there is NO winner, I get a skinner and we look at something else in the near future.

7.  If more than one entry is successful, the winner will be the first-posted entry.

8.  If you don't like the conditions, then best you don't enter.

What's it worth to the winner?  I'll look in my toy-box and see if there's something to make a punter happy.

Happy to answer queries if there are any.

Otherwise, start studying, and good luck all.

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« Last Edit: 2011-Oct-25, 01:46 PM by dubbledee » Logged
 
dubbledee
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2011-Nov-04, 09:25 PM

No worries, Shake.  Let's finalise it now.

NoLimit might not have seen it, but you're the winner and want to know what we're on.

We'll have a 3-3-3 for 2% between us.

Line A:  Jimmy, Woorim, King's Rose

Line B: Pinwheel, LCA, Wall Street

Line C: Pinnacles, Danleigh, Red Tracer
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monologue
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2011-Nov-04, 09:30 PM

MMMH like your chances .

I will have Red Tracer in my A box chin
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dubbledee
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2011-Nov-05, 09:54 AM

Shake, here we go:

05/Nov/11 10:53 AM 05/11 MR 6 F4 2 4 6/2-4 6 12 16/1 9 11/1-4 6 9 11 12 16 2%  5.40 Open 0.00 
05/Nov/11 10:53 AM 05/11 MR 6 F4 2 4 6/1 9 11/1-4 6 9 11 12 16/1-4 6 9 11 12 16 2%  7.60 Open 0.00 
05/Nov/11 10:51 AM 05/11 MR 6 F4 1 9 11/1-4 6 9 11 12 16/1-4 6 9 11 12 16/1-4 6 9 11 12 16 2%  20.20 Open 0.00

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dubbledee
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2011-Nov-05, 07:30 PM

Well, Shake, I wasn't smart enough to include a couple of the winners.

I think we needed NoLimit's input.  shy

Thanks for being a good sport with all this.

Better luck next time.  fingers crossed
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Shake A Little
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2011-Nov-05, 08:26 PM

Thanks DD, very generous of you to run the initial comp and then again to back up today.
Happy punting  beer
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NoLimit
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2011-Nov-05, 09:42 PM

Sorry Lads should have been checking the MC first 4s posts, I only had Albert for a place Line C, may have only made it more frustrating. Cheers anyways
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TeeDee
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2011-Nov-22, 10:03 AM

For those entering DD's comp don't forget to consider taking your own selections as a First 4 outlay, I'm sure we are going to have a few good news stories here and who knows maybe a sizeable collect.

For anyone interested in doing so you'll need to place 3 tickets with your A runners (first line), B runners (second line) and C runners (third line), as follows

Ticket 1
A runners for 1st
A + B + C runners for 2nd, 3rd, and 4th
$1 will cost $1,008 so you can choose what flexi % you wish (take the same % on all 3 tickets)

Ticket 2
B runners for 1st
A runners for 2nd
A + B + C runners for 3rd, and 4th
$1 will cost $378 so you can choose what flexi % you wish (take the same % on all 3 tickets)

Ticket 3
B runners for 1st
B + C runners for 2nd
A runners for 3rd
A + B + C runners for 4th
$1 will cost $270 so you can choose what flexi % you wish (take the same % on all 3 tickets)

100% outlay for all 3 tickets = $1,656 so prior to placing your tickets you can work out what total % outlay you wish then apply that % outlay to each ticket.

Hope this helps someone grap a nice payday!!





Seems a lot of mucking around and a bg blow if none of group A finish in the first 4.

For a full 100% it costs $2016 (an extra $360) to take 6x9x9x9

If I was taking it for 10% i'd prefer to fork out that extra $36 then risk missing it all together.

Just my thoughts
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dubbledee
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2011-Nov-22, 04:54 PM

Seems a lot of mucking around and a bg blow if none of group A finish in the first 4.

For a full 100% it costs $2016 (an extra $360) to take 6x9x9x9

If I was taking it for 10% i'd prefer to fork out that extra $36 then risk missing it all together.

Just my thoughts

TD, a few points:

1.  The staking strategy above requires one of the A line to run 1, 2 or 3 - 4th not covered.

2.  In your own approach, I'd rate it a big blow if one of my other 3 won the race.

3.  I've said it a couple of times elsewhere: ya get what ya pay for in exotics.  By all means take the easy way and box all 9 selections for an outlay of 3024.  Personally, I'm happy to back myself to get a placegetter and save myself $1400 bucks or so.  Sure, it'll hurt when the A line miss the place.  But it's pleasure when they do run the place.  It also hurts when I back a horse to win, and it runs 2nd.

Tough game this punting.
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TeeDee
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2011-Nov-23, 04:53 PM

TD, a few points:

1.  The staking strategy above requires one of the A line to run 1, 2 or 3 - 4th not covered.

2.  In your own approach, I'd rate it a big blow if one of my other 3 won the race.

3.  I've said it a couple of times elsewhere: ya get what ya pay for in exotics.  By all means take the easy way and box all 9 selections for an outlay of 3024.   Personally, I'm happy to back myself to get a placegetter and save myself $1400 bucks or so.  Sure, it'll hurt when the A line miss the place.  But it's pleasure when they do run the place.  It also hurts when I back a horse to win, and it runs 2nd.

Tough game this punting.


I never suggested boxing all 9
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