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2012-May-26, 04:53 PM

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Racehorse TALK

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Author Topic: PROPOSAL: Forum Melb Cup FIRST FOUR  (Read 3223 times)
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dubbledee
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Original Post 2011-Oct-25, 02:27 PM

Woobia has contacted me with the suggestion that as an alternative to the Calcutta - which now looks unlikely to take place - we have a Forum First Four.

I'm happy to go along with that, but it would need wide support, with monies transferred before Monday night.

The trick is to find a way in which contributors can have a say in the ticket we take.

How about this:

1.  We aim to take a single ticket with 8 x 10 x 12 x 14 horses.  That would cost about 8000 for $1, but I'm thinking of 10% - or we can go more, depending on level of interest.

2.  Share value??  I'd think it's hard to go below $50, otherwise things will get difficult to manage.  Thus, the 10% ticket would require at least 16 players @ $50.  No problems if players want multiple shares.  If we exceed the $800, that's not a problem with flexi-betting.

3.  So far as deciding the ticket, shareholders can post on the thread their TWELVE picks in order by NOON Monday.  I'll then do some sort of trick to prioritise the numbers by Monday evening.

4.  I'd prefer that someone else did the donkey work, but I, being a total sloth, is happy to act as treasurer.  But, shareholders must understand that I'll accept the duties on an "all care, no responsibility" basis.  Be assured I'll do my best, but my brain is deteriorating.

5.  If we go ahead, I'll post evidence that the bet was actually placed.

Please give us your thoughts, with an indication of interest.

THE ABOVE STRATEGY MIGHT BE CHANGED TO A LARGE EXTENT
« Last Edit: 2011-Oct-25, 09:11 PM by dubbledee » Logged
 
fours
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2011-Oct-25, 02:37 PM

Doubledee,

Think you need more combos for 3rd and 4th myself - these can be >6 lengths behind 1st and 2nd for instance.

Roving 4 horses between 1st and 2nd is one way to achieve more in 3rd and 4th. Assuming those 4 dont fill both 1st and 2nd creates more room again. So instead of 8x 10 or 80 combos you have ((4x6)) + (4x 4)) or 40 combos. This also sets you up for much much bigger dividends too.

Fours
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dubbledee
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2011-Oct-25, 02:39 PM

Happy to hear all these suggestions.

We need clarification of two things:

Share value

Ticket make-up.
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DJH
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2011-Oct-25, 02:47 PM

What are you expecting the F4 to pay?

An outlay of $8k ( in real terms) seems extravagent to me in this instance.

I can't see your odds reaching double figures?

I will tell you one horse that will not win the cup though, is the Geelong Cup winner
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calgary
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2011-Oct-25, 02:51 PM

Would be happy to participate but also think we need to cut back on combos.
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dubbledee
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2011-Oct-25, 02:52 PM

Way more than $8k, DJH.

Up to 50 k.

Throw me 4 win prices, and I'll work out the expected FF.
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DJH
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2011-Oct-25, 03:04 PM

Way more than $8k, DJH.

Up to 50 k.

Throw me 4 win prices, and I'll work out the expected FF.


Obviously it will more than likely pay way more than $8k.
It is a matter of whether it is a value bet or not for mine.  chin

I haven't gone right through the likely field, but with the international "domination" there are huge question marks over half the field. (What a shame the biggest betting race of the year has turned into this)
I am not picking on your plans, but just because it is the Melbourne Cup doesn't neccessarily make it a good bet.
Having said that, I will throw in $50  lol
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triple7
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2011-Oct-25, 03:04 PM

$50 share vale

Agree with the above (opening post) combos suggestion, I think you need to play wide

Selection method. All shareholders nominate their top 10 selections (once onlt regardless of the number of shares) in order, selection 1 = 10 points, 2 = 0 and so on. Points allocation of all required positions, top 8 for 1st, top 10 for 2nd, and so on. Keep it simple otherwise it gets way too hard to manage.
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dubbledee
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2011-Oct-25, 03:08 PM

DJH, you're dead right in all those points.

But...we're punters, and expect to have a bet on our best race.  stop

Of course when Americain wins, the comment will be:  I can't believe ya didn't have him as a standout.  bye
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22 WOOBIA 22
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2011-Oct-25, 03:11 PM

Yeah I am in

6 x Shares for Family

#22 forever.
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Thesmartman
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2011-Oct-25, 03:20 PM

DD and Ors

Righto, I will put me hand up to hold the bag and will go over the conditions once we all agree on how the bet will take shape.

Let me know if anyone objects?

I suppose also which may make you all feel comfortable wioth me doing it is:-

1.  I have met a few people on here already and will be attending the Derby bash.
2.  You can visit my web site which has my contact details, inparticular my mobile number.  Call it anytime you like

I can add a few others if necessary.

However, and I can add this from right now, if you are a participant, the first clause will be if the money is not in my account as at 9am Tues morning as it reads on my bank statement, you will no longer be a participant.

If that is looking good to you so far, then good.

Regards

Thesmartman
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DJH
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2011-Oct-25, 03:25 PM

DJH, you're dead right in all those points.

But...we're punters, and expect to have a bet on our best race.  stop

Of course when Americain wins, the comment will be:  I can't believe ya didn't have him as a standout.  bye



I have to admit, despite it being our best turnover race, I have had little financial or racing/personal interest in the Melbourne Cup over recent years.
It is a one off  3200m race with way too many question marks for me( if I lived in Melbourne and saw the horses it may be different)

I may find something closer to the day, but at this stage, I am only happy to bet against the Geelong Cup winner, to win.
Again, at this  stage, Americain looks very hard to beat
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calgary
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2011-Oct-25, 03:28 PM

DJH, you're dead right in all those points.

But...we're punters, and expect to have a bet on our best race.  stop

Of course when Americain wins, the comment will be:  I can't believe ya didn't have him as a standout.  bye



DD has a point - last years race shows that as long as the hot pot doesn't come first - even an obvious result can generate decent divvies.

My only other suggestion would be for tips to be PM'd to someone to avoid group think. They can be posted on the thread afterwards to ensure nothing dodgy is going on with selections.
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triple7
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2011-Oct-25, 03:34 PM

More than happy to vouch for The Smartman should he get involved or be asked to do so (here or elsewhere). I know him personally, and he has a long history of executive employment for State Government in various judicial department / admin roles.
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DJH
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2011-Oct-25, 03:35 PM

DD has a point - last years race shows that as long as the hot pot doesn't come first - even an obvious result can generate decent divvies.



I agree with the premise.
I am not sure last years results with the hugely public SYT  is a fair comparison though.

We have to remember that a huge amount of money is placed on public opinion(media)
This year, there does not appear, at this stage, to be any push.
I think the exotics will pay " as expected", rather than "overs"

Still, I am in for $50   lol  ...... Just in case   lol
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