dubbledee
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 Original Post 2011-Oct-25, 02:27 PM
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Woobia has contacted me with the suggestion that as an alternative to the Calcutta - which now looks unlikely to take place - we have a Forum First Four.
I'm happy to go along with that, but it would need wide support, with monies transferred before Monday night.
The trick is to find a way in which contributors can have a say in the ticket we take.
How about this:
1. We aim to take a single ticket with 8 x 10 x 12 x 14 horses. That would cost about 8000 for $1, but I'm thinking of 10% - or we can go more, depending on level of interest.
2. Share value?? I'd think it's hard to go below $50, otherwise things will get difficult to manage. Thus, the 10% ticket would require at least 16 players @ $50. No problems if players want multiple shares. If we exceed the $800, that's not a problem with flexi-betting.
3. So far as deciding the ticket, shareholders can post on the thread their TWELVE picks in order by NOON Monday. I'll then do some sort of trick to prioritise the numbers by Monday evening.
4. I'd prefer that someone else did the donkey work, but I, being a total sloth, is happy to act as treasurer. But, shareholders must understand that I'll accept the duties on an "all care, no responsibility" basis. Be assured I'll do my best, but my brain is deteriorating.
5. If we go ahead, I'll post evidence that the bet was actually placed.
Please give us your thoughts, with an indication of interest.
THE ABOVE STRATEGY MIGHT BE CHANGED TO A LARGE EXTENT
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« Last Edit: 2011-Oct-25, 09:11 PM by dubbledee »
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DJH
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2011-Oct-25, 03:55 PM
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More than happy to vouch for The Smartman should he get involved or be asked to do so (here or elsewhere). I know him personally, and he has a long history of executive employment for State Government in various judicial department / admin roles. Leave me out then!!!  |
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Pigskin
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2011-Oct-25, 03:57 PM
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I'll join for $50 ... whatever you come up with my first reaction was, wow 8 horses for first, but the French horses are gonna crap in but now after thinking about it for 10 mins, I wouldn't mind a situation where a horse like Fox Hunt at a decent price can win for a big divvy ... just as an example the roughies "in the top group" are still likely to be internationals ... just they might not have had a run, aren't media darlings and are a bit more of a guess as to whether they are ready to perform think we will be able to find 10 that can't run a drum ? ... that might be tough the Aussies, thats 2 ....  Oink ! |
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usernametaken
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2011-Oct-25, 04:14 PM
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I'm in.
Just need some details.
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betupbob
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2011-Oct-25, 04:19 PM
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im in
just need some details
ccchhheeerrrs
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whispering
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2011-Oct-25, 04:33 PM
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well look at it like this
if we did this for the cox plate, NSWTAB F4 paid about $80,000, so we would have added a zero at the end EG $800 into $8000
that was with the 1MIL added, but still once-a-year punters may inflate the pool.
just does seem like too many combos for 1st, i can see 8 horses winning but theres really only a few chances
I'd be in for $50, maybe more. Im assuming they can be given to whomever at rosehill?
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fours
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2011-Oct-25, 04:37 PM
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All,
Seems the 8x10 is favoured by most for 1st and 2nd so I'll give it a miss.
I will post a saver combo that people can take if they chose privately. I'd rather risk getting a smaller 5% only of say 10g ( instead of 10% ) if it means I can get 5% of 240g as my upside - buts thats me.
Fours
the rove americain suggestion has merit with lots of others as variance is covered better - gotta allow for the bad luck stories and so on... unless of course its Americains turn for bad luck....
Chalkie I will comment next when things are clearer as to the final bet(s). I wont particpate if I don't like it - I'm obstinate that way!
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« Last Edit: 2011-Oct-25, 05:16 PM by fours »
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chalky
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2011-Oct-25, 04:45 PM
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I'm in.
I'm also in for Fours if he wants to have a go with some others.....
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el zoro
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2011-Oct-25, 04:46 PM
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I'll be in for a $50 share. 
My thoughts are limit the winners to the 4 most popular choices going by everyones picks (8 seems excessive to me).
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monologue
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2011-Oct-25, 04:53 PM
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In for a penny ,in for a First Four
I'm in ...will slip my $50 to dd on Saturday if he doesn't mind.
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winner
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2011-Oct-25, 05:00 PM
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For my 2 cents worth.  I think we all agree Americain will be somewhere in the first 4 so my suggestion would be to take him as a rover with 14 other selections. For $800 you are looking at 36.63% If you are happy with a 10% return you can stand him out with 21  other selections for $800. |
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Thesmartman
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2011-Oct-25, 05:09 PM
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Just keep posting your preference as to what combo we should take. What is this 8 x 10 method again?
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seal
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2011-Oct-25, 05:23 PM
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For my 2 cents worth. I think we all agree Americain will be somewhere in the first 4 so my suggestion would be to take him as a rover with 14 other selections. For $800 you are looking at 36.63% If you are happy with a 10% return you can stand him out with 21 other selections for $800. I'm with winner here , rover Amer - poss for just under $600 - > 25 % and have a seperate one with different rover bit over $200 around 11.63% |
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chalky
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2011-Oct-25, 06:41 PM
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I'm with winner here , rover Amer - poss for just under $600 - > 25 % and have a seperate one with different rover bit over $200 around 11.63%
Sounds ok that one but i wonder if this time last year we would have been saying Viewed for the rover. |
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chuggers
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2011-Oct-25, 06:43 PM
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I am in for a $50 share.  |
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dubbledee
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2011-Oct-25, 06:44 PM
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Keep posting thoughts.
Also, we need to know who's prepared to contribute dollars.
Not gonna be simple to find a consensus approach, but something will be decided on Friday.
Until then, no one's committing any money.
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