I thought I would throw up some graphic sectionals from Saturday - and perhaps some other races - in the lead up to the Cup.
The vertical axis refers to seconds elapsed, the horizontal axis refers to the 200m section where the time was recorded.
The key to finding superior stayers is to look for the long sustained run that appears as a gently arching curve rather than the short sharp peak. Niwot is a perfect example.
Unfortunately I only have data for the last 10 sections (from 2000m to the winning post) but the first few sections are often critical in these races as speed spent at the start of a race will often impact negatively on a horse when the whips are cracking.
The following notes may help....
First 900m - 1600-800m - 800m-PostGREEN MOON 57.58 ...... 49.87........54.16
MACEDONIAN 58.96.......49.67 ........49.55
RAFFAELLO 59.48........49.73.........49.84
NIWOT 58.66........49.76.........49.11
Note : I have left out Anudjawun, but his sectional profile is virtually identical to Raffaello's
Green Moon goes directly to the front and sets the pace. He leads to the 600m and folds.
Macedonian races back in 10th place. Each successive half mile is faster than the previous. He sustains his (limited) speed
Raffaello, not renouned as a stayer trails the field but gets moving in the second half mile and runs the fastest sectional of the race from the 800m to the 600m (11.67). He can't sustain that and begins to flag but holds on for 4th
Niwot sits back 8th in the run. Like Macedonian each successive half mile is faster than the previous. He stays and he wins.
The source data :
http://www.tvn.com.au/tvnlive/v1/system/modules/org.tvn.website/resources/sectionaltimes/111029Race02_B.rtfhttp://www.tvn.com.au/tvnlive/v1/system/modules/org.tvn.website/resources/sectionaltimes/111029Race02_C.rtf