Racehorse TALK

Well Teary Eyed continued to blow and ran like it. Still not ready.

The First Four combos were okay though as first was obtained and 2nd from the a selections and a b selection filling 3rd. With Topping much shorter than Teary Eyed the First Four paid >$900 so $2000.00 was a possible dividend if Teary Eyed got 4th. 16.6666% would have returned >$300.00 which is good against the outlay of $20.00 for the race.

Today we get nil though.

For the smaller field I decided on only 3 'a' selections - what one does should vary with field size and field depth - no single fixed approach will be best and I strongly discourage anyone from doing that. You may like DD's approach and certainly it will be perfect for some races. In others it will be be covering too many combos, and in others not enough.

Fours
Out $20 Back $0.00

tch tch dd, he finally starts a thread & you  it down.

You may recall that this is the very horse that fours cleaned up on last prep.
I'll be banking it for 4th in it's next 4 starts.  

Dubbledee,

The biggest lesson of all is in the very first race example; possibly you are not receptive to learning!

First Fours enable one to boost one's strike rate by covering 4th. I've been down the road of covering 4th with you before. It's no different before the race!

Teary Eyed is being used as an example to use various strategies through it's preparation - we started off with a small field of little depth - and the stratgey was adapted to that reality. The strategy was correct but the horse itself was not ready yet. Hopefully it has not gone sour but is merely older and slower to come into race fitness this time in.

The price of Teary Eyed meant that a place bet and coverig 4th only with first fours was the best way from a value perspective. I did see 3rd or 4th as being the most likely spot filled if any. Other times a win bet may be warranted or a quinella - in each case you make a unique decision rather than apply the same approach regardless of field size and field depth.

I got the Emirates First Four - I've already mentioned that there is no need to miss out when a surprise ( to some ) horse wins if you do the perms!
Dubbledee in fields of larger size and greater field depth your approach will be found lacking as per the Emirates.

In Brisbane we had fields lacking dpeth mostly and this suited your approach very well indeed so good profits were made by it. No size fits all - lesson two!


Fours

All,

The main thig is the method(s) rather than Teary Eyed so lets look at what happened if we swapped the actual 4th place with Teary Eyed.

The place bet return was $3.10 so if we had gone 100% of the total bet of $20.00 for the place the return was $0.00. However by putting $10 to fourth place the return becomes 16.6666% of $963.50 or $160.58. This is an overall return on the $20.00 of $8.02 which is way way better than nil.

I am sure you can agree that used appropriately first fours can improve your strike rate AND your overall returns AT THE SAME TIME.

How many times have you tried a 4 leg allup the place to get 1st, 1st, 2nd and  4th and got nothing? Well here is a solution if you are up to it!

A word of warning though - too few combos will see you miss the first four, too many will see the value disappear, and plain old bad luck and bad judgement can see you lose regardless anyway. Judgements on field depth and strength need to be made - well.


Fours

Dubbledee,

You are wrong. I'll give others a chance to say why before I spell it out.

Fours

It doesn't have to cost you more ifyou box 6 instead of 5 as you can do the same spend value but get a smaller %.  

Dubbledee,

Simple maths is your problem.

Try more advanced stuff like permutations based on sound assumptions.

Fours

Yes you get less % but the point I think he's making is it still can cost the same outlay.

The difference is the smaller return IF you win. That's where it'll cost you $ by getting a smaller slice of the pie.

fours, dd does lessen the % with his A,B,C method. Throwing on more combos but he's got a better chance of getting a return than if he just stood A horses out on top to win.